Is Naked trading the last chance saloon?

[barjon]

My charts do have some horizontal lines here and there so their modesty is protected by a bit of underwear . mmm, does the chart itself and/or such lines count as indicators, I wonder?

There's nought wrong with fear, young Andy, as long as you're prepared for it. I know and understand my strategy backwards, but I always fear the worst when I enter and when I go either on-side or off-side - always. I am prepared for it though - there's a difference between those who make an orderly retreat and those who flee the field in panic even though both may be equally fearful.

good trading

jon

 

[Black Swan]

My charts do have some horizontal lines here and there so their modesty is protected by a bit of underwear . mmm, does the chart itself and/or such lines count as indicators, I wonder?

There's nought wrong with fear, young Andy, as long as you're prepared for it. I know and understand my strategy backwards, but I always fear the worst when I enter and when I go either on-side or off-side - always. I am prepared for it though - there's a difference between those who make an orderly retreat and those who flee the field in panic even though both may be equally fearful.

good trading

jon

top post...

 

[oildaytrader]

Raw PA is not the only way to trade, and suggestions like this only show the naivety of the poster. Regarding your comments on discipline; many people have this problem. As I see it a major contributing factor to lack of discipline is lack of conviction to the method (or methods) being traded. After all if you where almost certain that the method you where operating from was going to make money would you deviate from it? Highly unlikely. Therefore it is logical to assume that lack of discipline is very closely related to lack of confidence in your trading. If you find indicators help to build this confidence then they are of use, and should be considered a valid way of trading.

Raw P/A is the only way to trade.Most novices are using weak methods,added with ambiguous misinformation from lagging and corrupted indicators with faster/slower moving averages,confidence in the weak methods is low to start with and corrupted indicators add to the distortions.

The prices on the candles and charts are not hidden in any underwear.They are what they actually are.

The trend and horizontal lines are more indicators, created by illusionists living in a make believe world.They are no more than confusion merchants.

Trading the unknown is difficult without robust and fully tested systems and clear indications on direction,hence the lack of execution confidence using distorted indicators.

O D T

 

[jaspertrademaster]

I agree with Andy

 

[TAjammy]

tbh i don't use price action in the way J16 etc does, going short at resistance every time there is a pin, i just think it's a nice way to get into a trend, i find a trend, wait for a pullback to previous S/R or to a trendline, i usually just place a buy limit anyway but if a nice pin forms @ support in an uptrend then hell im in. i don't use R:R at all, i just take nice set ups in a trend, or a very obvious sideways market.

rofl i took my first fundamental based trade today, long AUDUSD because it's in an uptrend+ gold is looking strong

 

[oildaytrader]

good post Rossini

agree if they help use them ..... just learn their little nuances

thought on poor discipline

Hesitating to Enter a Trade

"A trader may hesitate or abandon entering a trade because he senses his own fear. His conscious or unconscious interpretation is, “If I am sensing fear, then I should not be doing this trade.” The bottom-line reason why a trader hesitates is because he is not totally confident in his trading strategy or in himself.

He can change this by properly researching and understanding his trading strategy "



later

Andy

Markets change and markets are dynamic.If a trader understood his strategy clearly , he may still come unstuck.Markets are sharks, Market behaviour on entry can change significantly ,markets may start getting choppy trends and markets on exits can change dramatically RESULTING IN TOTAL FAILURE OF REASEARCHED METHODS.

An example of this oil.During the oil glut the movement in usd had very little impact on oil price.As oil demand increased ,crude was imported from all over the worl and dollar fell.Crude volatility nowadays reflects dollar volatility.

 

[tenbobtrader]

Markets change and markets are dynamic.If a trader understood his strategy clearly , he may still come unstuck.Markets are sharks, Market behaviour on entry can change significantly ,markets may start getting choppy trends and markets on exits can change dramatically RESULTING IN TOTAL FAILURE OF REASEARCHED METHODS.

An example of this oil.During the oil glut the movement in usd had very little impact on oil price.As oil demand increased ,crude was imported from all over the worl and dollar fell.Crude volatility nowadays reflects dollar volatility.

Hi oildaytrader

do they ?

disagree oildaytrader ......... think its lack of knowledge .....

self and market

then everything can look like its changed after entry

later

Andy

 

[tenbobtrader]

"If a trader understood his strategy clearly , he may still come unstuck.Markets are sharks, Market behaviour on entry can change significantly ,markets may start getting choppy trends and markets on exits can change dramatically RESULTING IN TOTAL FAILURE OF REASEARCHED METHODS"

better research required = poor strategy imvho

 

[oildaytrader]

Hi oildaytrader

do they ?

disagree oildaytrader ......... think its lack of knowledge .....

self and market

then everything can look like its changed after entry

later

Andy

Markets do change.Here is the performance of a set of 11 robust systems applied day in day out for 8 years.Different performance over 8 years shows proof that markets change , and they can change permanently.


This is actually a robust system/method , but the novices use weak methods.

You are right ,its lack of knowledge but certainly not on my part.

I hope you guys can see the different performance for same method.I should really stop arguing with you guys and learn from you.

O D T

 

[Black Swan]

Markets change and markets are dynamic.If a trader understood his strategy clearly , he may still come unstuck.Markets are sharks, Market behaviour on entry can change significantly ,markets may start getting choppy trends and markets on exits can change dramatically RESULTING IN TOTAL FAILURE OF REASEARCHED METHODS.

An example of this oil.During the oil glut the movement in usd had very little impact on oil price.As oil demand increased ,crude was imported from all over the worl and dollar fell.Crude volatility nowadays reflects dollar volatility.

Crude and dollar price linked? Get out of here...who'd have thunk it... I'll keep my weather eye on that from now on, thanks for the heads up. Here's another issue missed by those condemning indicators, I need a quick easy reference when trading ten pairs on a daily basis, indicators that 'speak' to me on whatever screen/resolution I'm at. They give me an immediate entry and exit signal that I can pull the trigger on in an heartbeat. Price action and support/resistance is just as immediately visible on my candlesticks with 3 MAs and the MACD as it is 'naked'. Think about it.

 

[oildaytrader]

Crude and dollar price linked? Get out of here...who'd have thunk it... I'll keep my weather eye on that from now on, thanks for the heads up. .

I was still shorting crude when dollar was weakening from E$=$0,90 and crude was $20.
In those days dollar went up and crude went up.

 

[tenbobtrader]

"This is actually a robust system/method , but the novices use weak methods."


sure it is very robust

system is fixed for market conditions it was tested under

pilots job to know whats going on and ditch usual emergency system imvho

 

[oildaytrader]

I agree the trader has to be very highly skilled,emotionless,versatile and damn right crazy.

I have cut up the previous chart to highlight the bad patch , and I can assure that a few highly skilled traders lost out out during the period.

Nobody was happy for two and half years from 2005 to 2007, and many traders I know totally dissapeared after blowing their accounts.

 

[GammaJammer]

I personally think the biggest problem with indicators isn't the fact that people use them per se, it's merely that people don't understand what they do. Usually peoples' first instinct is to find an indicator, overlay it on a price chart and look for value in it. What they SHOULD do however is have a clear view of their desired approach to the market first, THEN, and only then, approach the indicators if necessary, and even then, actually have some clue as to how they are derived and therefore how they will perform under certain conditions.

Remember - even a price chart is basically an like indicator to a 1930s tape reader - all they had in the old days was a stream of price prints on a ticker tape. There's nothing inherently wrong in using indicators, it's just that people use them, as they use so many market tools, in lieu of actually LEARNING anything. And that's the problem imho.

Just my $0.02

GJ

p.s. fwiw I keep it v simple - 90% horizontal S/R, v occasional squint at RSI, occasionally bolly bands and the most widely followed moving averages. And even the latter makes me deeply uncomfortable and I only take a look at the really big ones (200 day etc) because I know for an absolute certainty that others with bigger pockets are also eyeing them (same for RSI really). But at least I also have an idea of how to calculate them and therefore what the limitations are.

 

[oildaytrader]

"This is actually a robust system/method , but the novices use weak methods."

These two equity curves are results of a weak system from 2001 to 2008.The inexperienced traders would have performed worse than the equity curves.

These equity curves can be improved with sophisticated progressive betting systems.Unfortunately they involve taking greater risks .See third equity curve.

 

[tenbobtrader]

"If we value the map more than the reality, we must not be surprised to find that the reality doesn't always fit the map.

In such a case, the reasonable man will change his map, not try to explain away the facts"

John Magee

 

[Rossini]

These two equity curves are results of a weak system from 2001 to 2008.The inexperienced traders would have performed worse than the equity curves.

These equity curves can be improved with sophisticated progressive betting systems.Unfortunately they involve taking greater risks .See third equity curve.

I don't really understand what your trying to prove with these equity curves? A weaker system produces worse results? Pretty obvious really. And we are going to have to agree to disagree on PA being the only way to trade, it simply is not. In fact you ''prove'' this yourself don't you? Using a ''progrssive betting system'' as you put it is not using PA. Contradictory, wouldn't you say?

Not that I know what a progressive betting system is mind....

 

[oildaytrader]

The solution for traders is to trade multiple markets and instruments.If one market was to become bad, traders would find better opportunities in the other instruments.

I personally trade automated on currencies and oil and soon Dax.This is coupled with manual trading and fundamental trades using progressive betting systems.It makes a nice variation.This is quite a good spread of risk on trading instruments.

Are there any other liquid instruments and markets worth trading?Maybe stocks might be an alternative

O D T

 

[oildaytrader]

In fact you ''prove'' this yourself don't you? Using a ''progrssive betting system'' as you put it is not using PA. Contradictory, wouldn't you say?

I did not prove that pa fails.When markets become really bad ,even p a will produce marginal results.That is when the progressive betting is useful in conjunction with pa

O D T

 

[Rossini]

I am not saying for one second that PA fails. It is a valid method of trading. I was trying to say that PA is not the only way to trade. Putting that aside, what is a progressive betting system?