Intuitive / Analytical Practical Application

[ducati998]

And at the close, chopping around again.

CALLON PETROLEUM (NYSE:CPE) Delayed quote data

Last Trade: 15.64
Trade Time: 4:02PM ET
Change: 0.41 (2.55%)
Prev Close: 16.05
Open: 16.11
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.33

Day's Range: 15.64 - 16.12
52wk Range: 10.15 - 18.00
Volume: 149,100
Avg Vol (3m): 137,181
Market Cap: 277.16M
P/E (ttm): 13.14
EPS (ttm): 1.19
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)


Volume a bit above average volume, any significance?
Normally on a Turtle type trade, I would just exit it on a close below the 180EMA.
As this seems to be quite closely correlated in many respects to the price of oil, and all the sentiment surrounding the energy sector generally..............would it make sense to tweak the exit?

thoughts anyone?
cheers d998

 

[Tapewormtoo]

Volume a bit above average volume, any significance?
Normally on a Turtle type trade, I would just exit it on a close below the 180EMA.
As this seems to be quite closely correlated in many respects to the price of oil, and all the sentiment surrounding the energy sector generally..............would it make sense to tweak the exit?

thoughts anyone?
cheers d998

I still say it shows weakness but there was enough support to hold off a large drop today . Volume was above average today, however even though it closed weak I would have prefered to see it close with a lower low indicating some institutional selling. It really doesn't show alot of institutional selling yet. Probally just day trader, swing trader volume today. I am still holding my short waitiing to see what happens.

 

[ducati998]

Tw2,
Well I'm glad to see you sticking to your guns, you must be a Texan.
Just a little CANDLESTICK analysis for you.

If you look at a daily chart, and compress the daily candles into 3 day candles, you have what is called "down under" kanga-tails. The theory being that the tails will much like a kangaroo tail spring price upwards.

Anyway, if you have a look, we have 2 weeks worth of kanga-tails.
This would suggest that every time price has moved lower, it has been thrust back up, quite forcibly in some instances.
This continued strength, will eventually wear down the bears, who are psychologically primed for fast falls..................prices when they fall always fall faster than they rise.........and canny bears will start to see that despite selling, price does not fall.

There will be HEAVY selling @ or around $16.50 - $17.00, if price makes it through this level, watch out........................and just in case you remain unconvinced still, then hear the market noise.....................


Associated Press
Feds Expect Fuel Prices to Climb Higher
Thursday April 7, 8:42 pm ET
By H. Josef Hebert, Associated Press Writer
Energy Department Projects High Gas Prices and $50-Plus Crude Oil at Least Through Next Year


WASHINGTON (AP) -- There's pump shock at every corner gas station, with prices well over $2 a gallon and still rising. And the government says you better get used to it. The Energy Department projects high gasoline prices and $50-plus crude oil at least through next year as producers struggle to keep up with demand.

The department said Thursday it expects gasoline prices to average $2.35 a gallon nationwide in May, the dawn of the heavy summer driving season. Motorists paid an average of $2.22 a gallon last week, 44 cents more than a year ago.

If anyone thinks prices will dip below $2, once a benchmark rarely seen, they're mistaken, says Guy Caruso, head of the Energy Information Administration, the DOE's statistical agency.

Caruso said the forecast is for prices to average $2.28 a gallon through September and remain high after that, well into 2006, mainly because of lingering high crude oil prices and growing demand. He said crude prices, which briefly reached $58 this week, are likely to stay above $50 a barrel well into next year.

Ironically, just as the federal officials were talking about higher prices, crude tumbled nearly $2 a barrel to just over $54 a barrel and gasoline futures fell nearly 11 cents before slightly rebounding Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Will that have any impact on prices at the pump?

"Probably not," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.

"We're in a new era of high gas prices. The economy is strong and people don't care as much as they did. It's kind of weird," Flynn said in a telephone interview. "The shock value of $2 gasoline has gone away. It's a part of life. How long that can go on we don't know."

In fact, motorists grumbling about high fuel costs might be heartened by the fact that, in today's dollars, gas cost $3.15 a gallon when fuel spiked in 1981 because the Iran-Iraq war affected production in both countries.

At the core of today's high prices is tight supply -- or the expectation of it just around the corner -- at a time of and growing demand for both crude and gasoline, government and private analysts said.

"You've got demand forecasts that are clearly going up," says John Felmy, chief economist for the American Petroleum Institute, the trade group for large oil companies. He said refineries are running all-out to meet growing demand.

Clearly motorists aren't easing off the roads.

The Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that gasoline demand for this summer is projected to be 9.3 million barrels a day, a 1.8 percent increase over last summer, and the highest on record.

"There is very little spare (production) capacity," said Caruso, referring both to global crude oil markets and U.S. gasoline production.

While the government reported this week that U.S. gasoline and crude inventories were significantly higher than a year ago at this time, those statistics may be misleading. Because of more expected demand the amount of oil in terms of days' supply is below historic levels and is expected to remain so through 2006, EIA analysts predicted.

People are using more gasoline for a variety of reasons: more people of driving age, motorists driving more miles, a rebounding economy, and an overall decline in automobile fuel economy, according to the EIA.

"We believe driving is not easily changeable for most people," said Geoff Sundstrom, a spokesman for the automobile group AAA. He said leisure driving represents a relatively small amount of miles driven. Most of the driving is for going to and from work, shopping and other daily activities, he said.

In a separate report released Thursday, the International Monetary Fund projected that global demand for oil by 2030 would reach 139 million barrels a day, a 65 percent increase.

"We should expect to live with high and volatile oil prices," said Raghuram Rajan, the IMF's chief economist. "In short, it's going to be a rocky road going forward."

Energy

 

[Tapewormtoo]

Tw2,
Well I'm glad to see you sticking to your guns, you must be a Texan.
Just a little CANDLESTICK analysis for you.

If you look at a daily chart, and compress the daily candles into 3 day candles, you have what is called "down under" kanga-tails. The theory being that the tails will much like a kangaroo tail spring price upwards.

Anyway, if you have a look, we have 2 weeks worth of kanga-tails.
This would suggest that every time price has moved lower, it has been thrust back up, quite forcibly in some instances.
This continued strength, will eventually wear down the bears, who are psychologically primed for fast falls..................prices when they fall always fall faster than they rise.........and canny bears will start to see that despite selling, price does not fall.

There will be HEAVY selling @ or around $16.50 - $17.00, if price makes it through this level, watch out........................and just in case you remain unconvinced still, then hear the market noise.....................

I am not from Texas but I did live there once. I reckon I can be about as stubborn as a Texas mule in Tennessee. That ain't always good nor does it always do a feller justice.

On the other hand sometimes sticking to your guns pays off - big time.

Thanks for the candlestick analysis. I never have traded using candlestick. Never have really caught onto the idea. Hear em talk about shooting stars or something like that and now kangaroo tails?? Candlesticks just never have made too much sense to me. Maybe that is because I have never taken the time to learn them. I prefer simple bar charts with open and close. Sometimes do equal volume anaylsis. Find it useful. But I think price action, special focus on daily range size, time, in conjunction with volume analysis (normal and equivolume) is about as good as any TA. Of course, with any TA stop losses are for protecting when one misjudged or the TA was wrong.

You have interested me in institutional volume. I'll have to look into that more.

Iffin the kangaroo springs up too hard am out of there with my stop loss faster than you can spit a chaw of baca out of the corner of yer mouth. However, I am thinking maybe his tail will break and he will fall on his north end of a chicken flying south if you know what I mean!

 

[ducati998]

Tw2,
Well your stubborness has paid off today, price moved south, with the price of oil headed the same way.

Now I haven't looked at any daily charts for oil, but it might be interesting as a comparison.
On CPE, we are in the area of "chart" support, as evidenced in the past by all the kanga-tails.

We are also entering into Q1 reporting season.
Now this is where the Fundamentals start to meet the Speculators.
CPE should have had a good Q1, as the Price received for their production, will provide a healthy profit margin. This, could, and should break CPE out of the current trading range.

Regarding Institutional volume, this will be a good time to monitor what they do during reporting season, they may very well know a bit more than the average retail trader, but then again mabe not. Irrespective of what they know or think they know, if they start to sell, that is a material addition to volume, and serious as far as market price is concerned.

If, conversely, they buy, they will remove further supply to lock-up, and market price will rise.

Therefore, the intelligent question would be, in this time of higher oil prices, is it reasonable to believe that CPE have improved their profit margins on production sold, and or to be sold in the future?

If you believe the answer is yes, then you would not want to be short.
If the answer is no, then short is exactly where you would wish to be.

As of about 3pm, Shorts were looking gleeful!

CALLON PETROLEUM (NYSE:CPE) Delayed quote data

Last Trade: 15.12
Trade Time: 3:17PM ET
Change: 0.52 (3.32%)
Prev Close: 15.64
Open: 15.64
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.33

Day's Range: 15.12 - 15.75
52wk Range: 10.15 - 18.00
Volume: 101,500
Avg Vol (3m): 137,181
Market Cap: 267.94M
P/E (ttm): 12.71
EPS (ttm): 1.19
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)


cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

Ok, got the right date now, grabbed Q4 by mistake previously.

5/9/05 - 5/13/05 Q1 2005 Callon Petroleum Earnings Release

thats better, does not give a time yet.
cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

Bloodbath for the bulls today, takes it all the way down into technical danger-zone.
Weekend, lots of thinking time, or mabe, because of the weekend, traders in this stock a bit jumpy?....................Or, looking at the VOLUME is there writing on the wall?

CALLON PETROLEUM (NYSE:CPE) Delayed quote data

Last Trade: 15.09
Trade Time: 4:00PM ET
Change: 0.55 (3.52%)
Prev Close: 15.64
Open: 15.64
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.33

Day's Range: 15.03 - 15.75
52wk Range: 10.15 - 18.00
Volume: 120,200
Avg Vol (3m): 137,181
Market Cap: 267.41M
P/E (ttm): 12.68
EPS (ttm): 1.19
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)


d998

 

[Tapewormtoo]

Therefore, the intelligent question would be, in this time of higher oil prices, is it reasonable to believe that CPE have improved their profit margins on production sold, and or to be sold in the future?

If you believe the answer is yes, then you would not want to be short.
If the answer is no, then short is exactly where you would wish to be.

It would seem to me that the obvious answer is yes, they have probally improved their profit margin. But I still have to go with the tape that shows weakness - for whatever reason. I wouldn't know how to figure all the reasons why it is weak. Don't rightly know if I should try to figure the reasons out or even if I could figure them out. I guess, for me it is kinda of like a track and field race and the one guy is running ahead of the others by quite abit. I don't know why he can do that. Maybe he has worked out harder. Maybe he is on steroids. Maybe he is juster better. All I can see is that he is winning the race. I don't know exactly why he is winning nor do I think I need to know. I don't know why CPE is showing weakness with all of the fundamental strenght it apparently has, if I have understood your fundamental perspective correctly, which indicates strenght. I certainly have no reason to think you are wrong. It could very well hit 22.00 in six months. But I know that for the moment ...that is..short term it is weak. Next week it might blow threw the ceiling and blast off to 19.00. But right now the tape says it is weak.

So, I am still short. Looking at it with TA it hit a support level and slightly bounced back today before the close. Me thinks it will break below 15.00 Monday or Tuesday. But if it don't and too much strenght comes back in I will be out of there faster than a Texas toad in a frying pan.


Have a great weekend,

TW2

 

[Tapewormtoo]

Weekend, lots of thinking time, or mabe, because of the weekend, traders in this stock a bit jumpy?....................Or, looking at the VOLUME is there writing on the wall?

The big bar down with better than average daily volume does indicate weakness but the fact that the volume wasn't extremely high and was less than the volume on the previous day - 4/7 does indicate that there is still some demand. If it were an even bigger bar with extreme volume and a weak close then I would say it was a sell-off. IMO today wasn't yet a sell-off by the "deep pockets".

 

[ducati998]

Tw2,

I don't know why CPE is showing weakness with all of the fundamental strenght it apparently has, if I have understood your fundamental perspective correctly, which indicates strenght. I certainly have no reason to think you are wrong. It could very well hit 22.00 in six months.

There are as many different forms of "FUNDAMENTAL analysis as there are Technical analysis.

My version, is the VALUE version. In the value version, based on the analysis posted earlier in the thread, there is NO VALUE in CPE at the current price. I would be very interested again if it dropped down to circa $11 - $12, but not otherwise.

So from a Fundamental perspective I am on the sidelines.
However, other schools of fundamental analysis, will have this as a buying, or probably more likely, a HOLD scenario.

It is really with the HOLD scenario that we are working.
We can see that almost 80% of the stock is held by the institutions currently.

Therefore, we need to try and guestimate 2 primary factors.
1....at what price did they buy in
2....at what price might they wish to sell............or be forced to sell.

Now we can get a fairly accurate buying in Price from SEC disclosure.
With some of the better known Fund Managers, we know their investment philosophy, and can guess from their buying in price if in fact they are executing on their published strategies, if so then we can guestimate a selling point for them.

Meanwhile, we have the Technical boys moving price all over the place on an intra-day, daily basis, following sentiment in oil, indices, or, the Specialist using these as excuses to gather or sell inventory based on their book for any given time.

So again taking a look at VOLUME, we see that the AVERAGE 3month VOL = 137,181 based on todays post. If we return to POST # 17

Average Volume = 129,454 from #17
Now that is a 6% change in Average volume.
Is that a significant change?

Consider it in context.
Prior to this CPE had been in a strong uptrend from about $11.50 to the high of $18.
Earnings announced, $0.12 less than analysts predicted, sells off to $15.03 in 2 days.
Unfortunately I didn't track average volume for that period.

Since then, there has been this 6% increase in volume on average, and the stock has fluctuated between $14.35 and $16.20'ish

Is this increase in volume significant in any way?
Is it useful to analysis in any way?
Is it tradeable information?
In what timeframe?

The big bar down with better than average daily volume does indicate weakness but the fact that the volume wasn't extremely high and was less than the volume on the previous day - 4/7 does indicate that there is still some demand. If it were an even bigger bar with extreme volume and a weak close then I would say it was a sell-off. IMO today wasn't yet a sell-off by the "deep pockets".

At lower prices, I would expect demand to increase, as this is not an industrial stock, this is a resource stock, and price paid is far more critical than even for the industrials.

As I said, if price dropped into $11 range I would be a buyer, and so I suspect would many other Value funds, but none or few of the Institutions would be sellers at the lows, they will become sellers at some "higher" price though.

When I say this stock is "Fundamentally sound" I mean that it's not an ENRON, it's not going to go belly up............therefore lower prices just mean the ability to earn a return on your investment.

cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month): 135,909
Average Volume (10 day): 113,000
Shares Outstanding: 17.72M
Float: 14.90M
% Held by Insiders: 15.92%
% Held by Institutions: 65.84%
Shares Short (as of 8-Mar-05): 798.00K
Daily Volume (as of 8-Mar-05): N/A
Short Ratio (as of 8-Mar-05): 3.381
Short % of Float (as of 8-Mar-05): 5.36%
Shares Short (prior month): 692.00K

Is this increase in volume significant in any way?
Is it useful to analysis in any way?
Is it tradeable information?
In what timeframe?

If we examine the "SHORT RATIO" or "SHORT % OF FLOAT"
We can see that they are small in terms of shares that are long.
So while the market noise causes a choppiness in "PRICE", from a volume point of view, short currently does not look like a balance of probability favours lower prices over a longer time frame.

Now, we can also see that "SHORT # of SHARES has increased from 692K in February, to 798K as of the 8'th March, a 15% increase in the gross #.
Intent, and Who, would be very useful information as regards this increase.
There is one very specific fundamental reason for this increase, how much of that 15% is attributable to this cause is a moot point, but I would hazard a guess that it accounts for the majority. This, will not, in my opinion, halt the bullish trend, it will blunt it slightly, and add to speculators being blindsided by erroneous interpretation of volume.

Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): 17.05%
Operating Margin (ttm): 27.97%

Looking good for next Q1 operating results.
I would expect "PRICE" to start firming towards the end of April,........did think it had already started!

Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 119.80M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 6.777
Revenue Growth (lfy)³: 62.60%
Gross Profit (ttm)²: 97.49M
EBITDA (ttm): 80.96M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 20.23M
Diluted EPS (ttm): 1.19
Earnings Growth (lfy)³: N/A

The key ratio for the short-term at least is "REVENUE GROWTH".......62.6%
That is I feel significant, and directly attributable to the current price of oil.
Personally, I feel that price already reflects most of this, however, other valuation methods will take this as a buy point.

Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): 4.43%
Return on Equity (ttm): 12.18%

Pretty good ROE, there is a return available?

VALUATION MEASURES

Market Cap (intraday): 267.59M
Enterprise Value (10-Apr-05)³: 455.68M
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 12.69
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-06)¹: 9.26
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)±: 0.63
Price/Sales (ttm): 2.31
Price/Book (mrq): 1.39
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)³: 3.80
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)³: 5.63

PEG, an interesting ratio that CANSLIM and a few other guys look at, is currently very bullish.
Plenty of upside left in that ratio.

Stock Price History
Beta: 1.423
52-Week Change: 45.89%
52-Week Change (relative to S&P500): 40.72%
52-Week High (9-Mar-05): 18.00
52-Week Low (13-Apr-04): 10.15
50-Day Moving Average: 15.39
200-Day Moving Average: 13.81

Just for the technical guys.............................
Currently blowing the S&P away, energy is hot. Traders want to be where the action is.
Beta, indicating higher volatility than the index.

cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

Associated Press
Crude Prices Continue Freefall
Monday April 11, 4:18 am ET
By Wee Sui Lee, Associated Press Writer
Crude Prices Continue Freefall As OPEC Ponders Another Output Increase


SINGAPORE (AP) -- Crude futures slipped Monday, as oil cartel OPEC announced it would further increase output by half a million barrels daily from next month to help meet an anticipated demand surge in the second half of the year.



Light, sweet crude for the May contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17 cents to $53.15 a barrel, late afternoon in Asia. Heating oil prices fell marginally to $1.4914 a gallon.

"Kuwait believes that the increase in production is still possible and may come in May due to the expected rise in demand by about 1 million barrels per day in the third quarter," OPEC President Sheikh Ahmad al-Fahd al-Sabah, also Kuwait's oil minister, said Sunday.

Qatari Oil Minister Abdullah al-Attiyah also said at the weekend that a second output increase ahead of the cartel's June 15 meeting was still possible. Recently, the 11-member cartel has been attempting to counter frequent price surges and a jittery market with announcements of production increases.

Demand is expected to rise in the third quarter due to the onset of the summer driving season in the United States, the world's biggest crude oil consumer.

Last week, the U.S. Energy Department said the nation's inventory of crude oil grew by 2.4 million barrels to 317.1 million barrels, or 8 percent higher than last year.

OPEC raised output limits by 500,000 barrels per day in March to 27.5 million barrels per day in a bid to cool prices. It left room for a second 500,000 barrels per day increase before a June meeting if prices failed to drop below $55. The group began talks on the second rise last weekend and said then it could decide within two weeks.

Oil analyst Peter Kemp in London told the Energy Intelligence Web site Monday that despite a five-day price slide last week, it's "seriously premature" to predict a burst in the oil bubble anytime soon.

"Prices are volatile but still well above $50 on both sides of the Atlantic," said Kemp, according to the Web site. "The slight slippage of recent days was more of a reality check than a correction, in recognition of the build in inventories that will occur in the second quarter."

 

[ducati998]

Just to continue the analysis of VOLUME.
Today, "PRICE" is tanking, the last time I looked it was at $14.91.
The volume however was within the average volume, so again, does volume add anything to the analysis?

NET SHARE PURCHASE ACTIVITY

Insider Purchases -..................... Last 6 Months........................... Shares Trans
Purchases........................................... N/A ....................................................N/A
Sales................................................... 78,000 ................................................12
Net Shares..................................... Purchased..........................................(Sold)
......................................................................................................................(78,000)
Total Insider Shares Held............. 2.82M ....................................................N/A
% Net Shares............................ Purchased...............................................(Sold)
..........................................................................................................................(2.7%)


Net Institutional Purchases - Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr

Net Shares................................... Purchased ...........................................(Sold)
......................................................... 637,000
% Change in Institutional Shares Held 5.2%

Data provided by Reuters


Well, we can see that "Insiders" are selling at around $15.40 area. From a fundamental valuation this makes sense to me, as there is only value @ $11 and below. What does this mean?

1.......It could mean that they believe their shares to be fairly valued, and they wish to cash in a certain $$ amount.
2......It could simply be that they are compensated in shares, and this is just normal behaviour and how they realise their pay.
3.....Something ominous, and they are getting out early........an unlikely scenario, as they would be opening themselves up for all sorts of legal complications. Also, were they doing this prior to earnings season, without giving a warning, again legal ramifications would be a huge problem for them.

Therefore, reasonably we can say that the insider selling at this point is not a major issue.
The increased supply, has been compensated for by increased institutional buying.

So whats with the PRICE?
And here is the closing price.


CALLON PETROLEUM (NYSE:CPE) Delayed quote data

Last Trade: 14.98
Trade Time: 4:03PM ET
Change: 0.12 (0.79%)
Prev Close: 15.10
Open: 15.05
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.33

Day's Range: 14.90 - 15.21
52wk Range: 10.15 - 18.00
Volume: 123,300
Avg Vol (3m): 135,909
Market Cap: 265.46M
P/E (ttm): 12.59
EPS (ttm): 1.19
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)


Pretty flat.
Considering the large fall on Friday..........again no follow through.
Rangebound.
Frustrating.

Patience, always a traders best friend.
Sit tight, follow your plan. So, we remain long, and wait for earnings season, and Company specific news, rather than Oil sentiment ( although oil has a fundamental importance, it does not have a day to day importance ) and index fluctuations, that drive the speculators positions.
I am of course speculating on this one as well.

cheers d998

 

[Tapewormtoo]

Still looks weak by tape. I am still short. Decline is slow. Maybe it will pick up tomorrow. I just might cover my short if decline doesn't get with it.

 

[Salty Gibbon]

 

[ducati998]

Tw2,
As of the moment sentiment and the tape would seem to be running nicely together.
Oil price down somewhat, indices, down, and up, real messy at the moment.

Associated Press
Oil Prices Fall on Revised IEA Forecast
Tuesday April 12, 1:50 pm ET
By George Jahn, Associated Press Writer
Oil Prices Fall on Revised IEA Forecast for Slowing Growth in Oil Demand This Year


VIENNA, Austria (AP) -- Crude futures slumped Tuesday on the heels of a revised forecast from the International Energy Agency for slowing growth in oil demand this year.
Light, sweet crude for May delivery fell $1.26 to $52.45 a barrel by midafternoon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Heating oil lost more than a cent to $1.4765 a gallon, while unleaded gasoline fell about a half-cent to $1.5440.


On the International Petroleum Exchange in London, Brent crude fell 59 cents to $52.62 a barrel.

Prices initially rose Tuesday in European trading, building on direction established Monday when crude prices rose late in the New York session and settled up 39 cents at $53.71 per barrel, breaking a six-day decline. The close was more than $4 below the intraday peak, though prices remain around 40 percent above year-ago levels.

In its report, the Paris-based IEA suggested that rising U.S. interest rates and energy costs would reduce world hunger for oil this year.

It lowered its estimate for world oil demand growth by 50,000 barrels a day to 1.77 million barrels a day, while forecasting total demand at 84.27 million barrels a day -- slightly lower than the previous figure.

It also said that government measures in Asia -- and Chinese oil demand growth that was only half of estimates last year -- also would act as a brake on the market.

"Fears of a surge in second-quarter Chinese demand are receding," the IEA said, and noted that China's oil demand growth was significantly lower in first two months of the year.

Some analysts said they expected markets to calm in the coming weeks.

"The hedge funds have become -- if not absolutely bearish -- at least feeling that the highs are behind us and will have to wait until the third quarter to take prices back toward their $60 (a barrel) target," said analyst Deborah White of SG Securities in Paris.

Still, others said that over the short term, the market could still reach upward.

"The rise last night shows that the market is still in a bullish mood, and around the $53 mark, people still view it as relatively cheap," said Daniel Hynes, energy analyst at ANZ Bank in Melbourne, Australia.

Hynes said the market will remain "volatile," and he expects prices to rise next week.

Overall, crude prices have eased since last week on a build in crude stocks in the United States and comments from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on a possible production increase next month.

The 11-member oil cartel raised output limits by 500,000 barrels per day in March to 27.5 million barrels per day in a bid to cool prices. It left room for a second 500,000 barrels per day increase before a June meeting if prices failed to drop below $55. The group began talks on the second rise last weekend and said then it could decide within two weeks.

White said that no matter what OPEC decides, the Saudis, the group's main producers, will "do what they consider the right thing," and continue to increase output.

Vienna's PVM GmbH energy consultants also noted "Mideast Gulf producers ... encouraging stockbuilding in the coming months to avoid a supply crunch at the end of the year."

The IEA report said OPEC produced an extra 290,000 barrels of oil a day in March, mainly due to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Traders were now beginning to look toward the midweek U.S. Department of Energy petroleum stocks report for clues on inventory levels in the world's largest energy consumer with the summer driving season now only weeks away.

Last week, the U.S. Energy Department said the nation's inventory of crude oil grew by 2.4 million barrels to 317.1 million barrels, or 8 percent higher than last year. Analysts are expecting another build.

Elsewhere, concerns over supply disruptions in Nigeria, the United States' fifth-biggest source of imports, eased as main oil unions withdrew their threat of a three-day strike that was supposed to start Monday, citing progress in labor negotiations.

Threats of labor action in Africa's largest producer has played a role in spiking crude prices in 2004 as the world watched demand rise in an era of thinning excess capacity.

Associated Press Writer Wee Sui Lee in Singapore contributed to this report.



cheers d998

 

[ducati998]

And here we have the analysts EPS estimate for Q1. and for Dec 2005 for the year.
Now, CPE actually very rarely conforms to the analysts expectations.
This is both good and bad, and really depends on your trading or investing style.

Companies that hit to the penny, or a penny to the UPSIDE consistently are always candidates for a very close examination of GAAP standards and their compliance, as it's just too coincidental that you can control all the variables and come in on the mark time after time.

However, the market loves stocks that are consistent with analyst forcast EPS.
Obviously with so much noise in the market, anything that shows some consistency is rewarded.

I prefer stocks that actually report true earnings.
I always have increased confidence in the accounting when earnings are missed, or disappointing. It makes for a bumpy ride very often, but at least you know more or less where you stand from an "honest management" point of view.


ANALYST
Annual EPS Est (Dec-05) : 1.62
Quarterly EPS Est (Mar-05) : 0.41
Mean Recommendation*: 3.0
PEG Ratio: 0.61

We'll see how close the analyst gets.
Then we can see what happens. Last time earnings were missed by $0.12 / share, and we had this sell-off to where we are currently.

cheers d998

 

[Tapewormtoo]

Ducati998

I decided to cover today at 14.95. Unfortunately, shortly after that it went on down to 14.67. That is called the "perversity" of the market! Anyway, I shorted at 16.10 and covered at 14.95 for a profit of 1.15 per share. I see demand coming back in so I covered. IMO they took it down today to shake out some folks. I think we will get some sort of rally now. I may be looking to go long. If on the other hand I am wrong and enough demand doesn't come back in tomorrow and the decline of the last 4 days continues I may short again. However, IMO the odds favor some sort of rally. I think the present decline is over-at least the tape points in that direction.

tw2

 

[ducati998]

Tw2,
Well good that you got a profit from it.
To myself, "Tapereading" really falls into the "daytrader" category, as sentiment as this stock has demonstrated can fluctuate for all sorts of reasons. And, had you daytraded sentiment, you could have potentially had numerous opportunities.

Of course on the downside, entries can be very difficult to execute, and trading costs can mount, dependant on your broker. Swings and roundabouts.

Today, what was the "intent" of the Specialist?
Was he initially following oil?
Did he then change his mind, as the indices rallied, or did the short-term volume change it for him?
Or was he just in the process of gathering inventory as with earnings season approaching, he anticipates, or has orders on his books, and the market fluctuation to the downside has provided the excuse or cover for him to fill his cupboard again?

Regarding earnings, I have not seen any warnings as of yet.
Could still be a bit early, but analysts hate not being told anything regarding possible embarrasments to their forcasts...............especially with small caps that rely on a close relationship between management and their very often single analyst.

Anyway, as always, more questions than answers.

CALLON PETROLEUM (NYSE:CPE) Delayed quote data

Last Trade: 15.06
Trade Time: 4:04PM ET
Change: 0.08 (0.53%)
Prev Close: 14.98
Open: 14.98
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
1y Target Est: 17.33

Day's Range: 14.67 - 15.12
52wk Range: 10.15 - 18.00
Volume: 138,400
Avg Vol (3m): 137,727
Market Cap: 266.88M
P/E (ttm): 12.66
EPS (ttm): 1.19
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A)


So ended a little higher.
cheers d998

 

[Tapewormtoo]

Tw2,
Well good that you got a profit from it.
To myself, "Tapereading" really falls into the "daytrader" category, as sentiment as this stock has demonstrated can fluctuate for all sorts of reasons. And, had you daytraded sentiment, you could have potentially had numerous opportunities.

Usually, my type of tape reading is not daytrading. I will indicate below what the trading opportunities were and where they actually were in my manner of tape reading.

To sum up what I said in my past posts I said early on that the next 2-10 days would be bearish. I then shorted on 3-23 at 16.10. I then indicated I would hold my short position unless too much demand comes back in. Some creeped in on 3-24 and the next trading day also but since it wasn't enough demand to warrant me covering, so, I held. On the next trading day 3-29 the bottom fell out. However, I missed covering the short at 14.35 on 3-30 as if I remember correctly I was away from the computer when it was made. 3-30 really would have been my covering point at 14.35 for a profit of 1.75 per share. But, when you snooze-you lose. I guess I was caught snoozing. However, I got the general direction as down correct. My original plan was to cover at or just under 15.00. The next day 3-31 we got a gap up opening but over the next 5 trading days I didn't see enough demand coming in to warrant covering my short that I still had due to missing the short covering opportunity on 3-30. Finally, on 4-7 the decline started as supply demand dwindled and 3 days later on 4-12 it made a low of 14.67. I covered at 14.95 thus giving me a profit of 1.15 per share.

The way I trade by the tape I potentially had 3 opportunities to make money. First, on the short position taken on 3/23 and covering it on at 14.35 (which I missed the opportunity - you snooze you lose). At that time I also could have taken a long postion but since I wasn't there for the short I obviousley wasn't there for the long. I could have covered the long at on 4-7 or 4-7 at 16.10 or thereabouts ( potential profit of 1.75 on the long). This was a tragically missed opportunity. The lesson- watch the computer when trading! Finally, a potentially third opportunity came up to short on 4-7 around 16.10 and cover today 4-12 around 14.50 for another potential 1.60 profit.

As it turned out I missed the grand opportunity on 3-30 to cover my short and go long thus knocking me out of more profit that could have been made during these days. Of course, I could have just said I covered at that time but that wouldn't really be fair since I did in fact miss the short covering and also missed taking the long position. Therefore, I had no choice but to hang onto my short. Nevertheless, my stop loss was never seriousley threatened (17.50) so I got the general direction right by my tape reading just didn't take advantage of all the shorting opportunities and the one long opportunity.

So, the moral is watch the computer if you want more opportunities.

Finally, most of the time my type of tape reading trading wouldn't be daytrading as I would hold for 2 to 10 days and even longer if I thought it warranted doing so.

I would now be looking to take another position in CPE. Probally long.

Ducati998 are you still in your turtle trade or did it get stopped out?

Demand started coming back in today. I expect some sort of a rally next.