Hi Guys
I guess I will start this introduction by telling you my bitter sweet story, about how I embarked on the journey to becoming a self taught professional trader through the school of Hard Knocks and at what cost did I learn what trading is all about...
HINT: It is all about PROBABILITY - ODDS of winning to LOOSING, and ways of putting the odds in your favor!!!
I've been fighting the equities and currencies markets for the last 15 years to no avail, having lost more that $0.5M to the markets by following conventional bull**** trading techniques, the ones you get to learn from books and seminars everywhere...
What I have learned at the end was that the One Rule in trading is that there is No 100% Rule in TA, FA or News Plays!
You can have a TA signal - and it FAILS...
You read about a Fundamental that is just about to hatch - turns out you are too early as the move hasn't started yet in the right direction...
You expect some news to move the market in a logical direction - and the markets acts illogical...
Later on you learn that all indicators known to mankind are LAGGING, all the price action in the graphs is Price Action in hind site, that is irrelevant to future moves, volume doesn't mean anything (especially in FX as it is TICK only)...
So I was totally confused as no matter what trading system I will try and what new indicator I will use, the results were always devastating...
So one day I sat down, put my thinking hat on, and rewound my life tape and analyzed what happened, trying to answer myself the simple question. It was not natural to have lost so many times in a row. This is how I got into statistical analysis and Theory of Probability. It turned out, as I have latter discovered that I had a NEGATIVE EQUITY CURVE, as my loosing trades exceeded my winning ones. So basically I was trading on pure CHANCE and my LUCK SUCKED big time!
So I said to myself... Geee man, if you have done just the opposite to what you felt is your trading mind set, you would have been a SUPER STAR God damn it! And indeed, it appeared I was scoring 20% of the time, some tiny profits, while at the same time I taking some major heavy losses, as I was always on the wrong side of the Market. No matter what I do, the Market is against me. It felt as if someone was waiting to see me which side of the Market I will take, so that the Market can go in the other way! It was horrible...
This is how I embarked on the path of thinking Two Way trading... You never know when the Market will trick you, I said to myself, so why don't you start playing the Flip Side of the Market, just in case your Main Trading Idea (which was always the stupid one) FAILS! How can I create a system that can take advantage of my FAILURES and make me a NOT FAILURES (here my binary arithmetic skills have kicked in, I have to admit)... ;-)
If you are interested in the subject matter or want to share your experience, feel free to drop me a line in the forum...
Cheers
I guess I will start this introduction by telling you my bitter sweet story, about how I embarked on the journey to becoming a self taught professional trader through the school of Hard Knocks and at what cost did I learn what trading is all about...
HINT: It is all about PROBABILITY - ODDS of winning to LOOSING, and ways of putting the odds in your favor!!!
I've been fighting the equities and currencies markets for the last 15 years to no avail, having lost more that $0.5M to the markets by following conventional bull**** trading techniques, the ones you get to learn from books and seminars everywhere...
What I have learned at the end was that the One Rule in trading is that there is No 100% Rule in TA, FA or News Plays!
You can have a TA signal - and it FAILS...
You read about a Fundamental that is just about to hatch - turns out you are too early as the move hasn't started yet in the right direction...
You expect some news to move the market in a logical direction - and the markets acts illogical...
Later on you learn that all indicators known to mankind are LAGGING, all the price action in the graphs is Price Action in hind site, that is irrelevant to future moves, volume doesn't mean anything (especially in FX as it is TICK only)...
So I was totally confused as no matter what trading system I will try and what new indicator I will use, the results were always devastating...
So one day I sat down, put my thinking hat on, and rewound my life tape and analyzed what happened, trying to answer myself the simple question. It was not natural to have lost so many times in a row. This is how I got into statistical analysis and Theory of Probability. It turned out, as I have latter discovered that I had a NEGATIVE EQUITY CURVE, as my loosing trades exceeded my winning ones. So basically I was trading on pure CHANCE and my LUCK SUCKED big time!
So I said to myself... Geee man, if you have done just the opposite to what you felt is your trading mind set, you would have been a SUPER STAR God damn it! And indeed, it appeared I was scoring 20% of the time, some tiny profits, while at the same time I taking some major heavy losses, as I was always on the wrong side of the Market. No matter what I do, the Market is against me. It felt as if someone was waiting to see me which side of the Market I will take, so that the Market can go in the other way! It was horrible...
This is how I embarked on the path of thinking Two Way trading... You never know when the Market will trick you, I said to myself, so why don't you start playing the Flip Side of the Market, just in case your Main Trading Idea (which was always the stupid one) FAILS! How can I create a system that can take advantage of my FAILURES and make me a NOT FAILURES (here my binary arithmetic skills have kicked in, I have to admit)... ;-)
If you are interested in the subject matter or want to share your experience, feel free to drop me a line in the forum...
Cheers