Pat Riley
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There's some good psych stuff goin on here which is precisely what does drive the markets. Ebola, MH17, Ukraine - stuff that doesn't have any direct fundamental impact on prices, but does on the imagination of those that think it does.
There's a fella that delivers me firewood back home and he's also an agro-farmer. He knew he was goin ta have a bumper harvest and he also knew everyone else in his marketplace (Europe) was also goin to have one too which would drive down the price. But he also new the premiums on the futures when they were being bid at 150 on a forward market price of 100 were exorbitant. So he chose not to get cover and take a chance at market. He got his price without cost of cover and did better on aggregate than his many contemporaries who thought they would use the markets for profit let alone just fixing their fair price. He has an inherent grasp of probabilities that most of us would die for. He also makes almost as much selling me and others of 3cubic of hardwood at euro380 as he does on his agritrade. If I had to ever give a parting gift to other traders it would be to do what he does - have more than one iron in the fire.
There's a fella that delivers me firewood back home and he's also an agro-farmer. He knew he was goin ta have a bumper harvest and he also knew everyone else in his marketplace (Europe) was also goin to have one too which would drive down the price. But he also new the premiums on the futures when they were being bid at 150 on a forward market price of 100 were exorbitant. So he chose not to get cover and take a chance at market. He got his price without cost of cover and did better on aggregate than his many contemporaries who thought they would use the markets for profit let alone just fixing their fair price. He has an inherent grasp of probabilities that most of us would die for. He also makes almost as much selling me and others of 3cubic of hardwood at euro380 as he does on his agritrade. If I had to ever give a parting gift to other traders it would be to do what he does - have more than one iron in the fire.
