FTSE 100 - Inter Market Analysis

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 11/4/17

FTSE 100 finished +5 points higher today even with concerns over weaker consumer spending, a move higher in GBP, geo-political concerns via North Korea and Syria, Libor/BOE probe and Shanghai -0.5% overnight. The major concern was geo-politics as Russia and Iran increased rhetoric over the weekend, yet the FTSE 100 didn't flinch as it was helped by BHP Billiton restructuring and strength in crude Oil.

Resistance expected to hold at 7360, all eyes on the H&S formation coming into play on the Daily chart.

Game plan: Look to short provided we remain below 7360. target on downside = 7320 , 7280, 7260 .

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for Thurs 13/4/17

FTSE 100 initially pushed higher after Tesco reported stronger sales data, stronger wage growth and indications we will get a de-escalation of the geo political tensions via Lavrov-Tillerson meeting and China-USA-North Korea solution via dialogue. The resistance at 7400 held a double top and subsequently reversed as markets focused on de-escalation being negative for crude oil and higher than expected UK jobless claims, not to mention Nasdaq/S&P 500 showing weakness given tapering.

Trumps comments regarding the Dollar + De-escalation should help stabilize risk sentiment , therefore I will be looking for long set ups.

Support levels : 7340 , 7335, 7325, 7280, 7260

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

TA update

Sterling denting FTSE , but stronger Chinese data overnight will keep it alive

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

TA update for Tues 18/4/17


FTSE expected to play catch up to US equity rally overnight with S&P 500 up +20 handles . Geo political tensions ease whilst we remain concerned over French election uncertainty and weaker US data.


unfilled gap above at 7355 ... IHS in play on 10 mins

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Short squeezes higher along with Europe but reversal imminent

FTSE 100 certainly held 7100 support as we short squeezed higher to 7275 hitting previous support now equals resistance at 7260-70 zone. The weekly chart indicates an inside bar bearish consolidation, whilst the 60 mins chart approaches 200 MA resistance . The daily chart is into fib 50-61% retrace resistance .

Oil remains weak languishing at $49 as oil supply concerns mount given the rig count number increased again on friday. How long will the short squeeze last in EU/UK equities?

I am expecting a reversal at this juncture.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100 hit a pivot high of 7290 before reversing as it held the 200 MA resistance on the 60 mins chart and Fib 61% on the daily chart. The UK index is still subject to political uncertainty given the general election/brexit. Sterling strength is still hurting exports whilst Oil remains weak at $49, therefore expect weakness to resume on the FTSE 100 given that we are trading within the inside bar on the weekly chart.

All eyes on the H&S formation brewing on the 10 mins chart.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 02/05/17

FTSE 100 has been under pressure after the initial gap higher post Macron win due to GBP/USD strength and Oil weakness. Crude oil has held support at $48 whilst brent oil held $51, whislt GBP/USD closes the gap at 1.2970. If we can get GBP to reverse and Oil to move higher which are poised to then expect the FTSE 100 to move higher based on the IHS formation in play on 10 mins chart.

60 mins chart - into Fib 50%

Daily chart - no mans land

Weekly chart - inside bar

Conclusion: I will look for long set ups on Tuesday.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 16/05/17

FTSE 100 was led higher by Saudi-Russia agreeing a 9 month output cut as opposed to the previous 6 month cut. Oil prices led the rally in the commodity sector thereby negating weaker Chinese data overnight, ongoing geopolitical concerns via North Korea and Trump sacking Comey. Brexit and election concerns also failed to keep the index suppressed as we hit a new all time high at 7460 intraday. The index has closed above 7445 on the daily chart , is it a break out or a fakeout given the weaker economic data last week?

10 mins chart - double top at 7460 .

60 mins chart maintains its bullish momentum with higher highs and higher lows.

Conclusion: 7460 is key pivot resistance, if we break above then the bulls continue to march on, if we hold then we can capitulate fast.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 19/05/17

The FTSE looks to be leading the gains in Europe ahead of the open on Friday, boosted no doubt by sterling’s performance since yesterday’s European close. The pound showed its vulnerability once again on Thursday – albeit on a much smaller scale than seen previously – as it fell around one cent against the US dollar in a very short space of time. Given the timing of the plunge, it would seem the liquidity of the market as opposed to any particular catalyst was largely responsible for the mini “flash crash”.

Sterling has rebounded from the overnight low at 1.2890, it has now settled at 1.2950. The retail sales spike has faded thus far , the movement in sterling dictates the FTSE 100.

The index has resistance at 7465, 7480, gap fill at 7505 .

Support is seen at 7425 , 7410, 7400.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

Mid-day update

bearish bias in play

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 02/06/17

FTSE 100 traded sideways even with a poll indicating the lead has narrowed to just 3-4% between the Tories and Labour. thereby sending GPB/USD above 1.29. The FTSE 100 shook off political concerns and weaker Chinese data overnight as it gapped up and pushed to 7560. The 60 mins chart is now carving out a H&S formation as the daily candle put in a topping tail yesterday.

10 mins chart has an unfilled gap at 7520 , all eyes on the H*S formation target of 7446.

Support: 7540 , 7520, 7500 .

Resistance: 7560 , 7586.

Conclusion: H&S formation in play tilts the bias the bearish side, watch out below.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 09/06/17

FTSE 100 flushed lower today hurt by the possibility of a hung parliament given the political uncertainty over the next 24 hours. Oil prices hitting $47 and GBP/USD > 1.29 certainly didnt help sentiment.
Stronger Chinese exports/trade balance & shanghai index overnight failed to keep the index afloat

Weekly - support seen at 7440
Daily - Fib 75% support at 7440 , with further support at 7400
60 mins - H&S target = 7400 .
10 mins - no mans land

We now await the results of the election with early projections starting from 8pm onwards .

Elections results and market reaction is a wild card.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for Fri 16/06/17

FTSE 100 is expected to remain under pressure given;

3 hawkish members argued for a rate hike yesterday
weaker UK retail sales yesterday
Oil remains weak at $44
Jared Kushner now being investigated
Trump investigated
Yellen Hawkish
Criminal investigation launched into Greenfell tower fire
We must also keep a lookout for the BOJ press conference to see if they adopt a hawkish tone similar to BOC, FED and BOE . If BOJ hints towards a hawkish stance then expect the YEN to rally thereby sending equities lower.

FTSE 100 resistance is seen at 7450, 7490 gap fill resistance.

The index is now trading below its H&S neckline on the daily chart, watch for target at 7300 to be hit.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 20/06/17

FTSE 100 defied my expectations of gapping lower today given the terrorist incident at the mosque overnight, Brexit talks starting and concerns over Theresa Mays future given reports that she only has 10 days to prove her leadership skills.

Oil remains weak whilst GBP/USD remains above 1.27 , the two main drivers of the FTSE 100. Both indicate weakness going forward as the daily chart confirms given the H&S formation.

Hawkish BOE will keep the pressure on the index going forward not to mention Brexit uncertainty, * soft Brexit will keep GBP afloat.

Carney is speaking tomorrow so expect volatility.

Resistance levels : 7540 . 7550, 7590 .

Support : *7495, 7480, 7465, 7450, 7440, 7420

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 21/06/17

FTSE 100 initially short squeezed higher after mark Carneys dovish comments , it went on roller coaster ride to 7560 only to reverse -110 points down to 7450 after hours as concerns over a DUP and Conservative were reported. The other factors that also hurt sentiment were George Soros dire warning on UK growth , Mark Carney admitting that wages will remain sluggish along with growth and Oil prices skidding to new lows.

Support is now seen at gap fill 7463, with further support at 7440 , 7420. The weekly chart remains bullish as we are above the previous resistance zone at 7440.

Daily chart has resistance at 7560. *60 mins chart remains bullish with higher and higher lows.

I will be looking for a move higher.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 27/06/17

The index gapped higher this morning led by a rally in Oil, a deal with the DUP and conservatives albeit controversial & Italian banks being rescued again . Stronger German IFO also helped lift sentiment *The rally was capped at 7480 as concerns started to emerge with regards to the cost of the deal , £1 billion being agreed to be diverted towards Ireland.

"On Monday Mrs May demonstrated this in two dangerous ways. In the first, she struck a Westminster deal with the Democratic Unionist party which emboldens her to behave as though she now has an overall majority when, in fact, she leads a minority government. In the second, she issued a tightly drawn paper on the rights of EU citizens living in the United Kingdom after Brexit in which she acts as though her version of Brexit represents the settled public will, when in reality it does no such thing."

Daily chart is consolidating .

60 mins chart has built a base at 7400 and has broken out, so we look for a high high now.

10 mins chart has support at 7440 and 7425 gap fill.

*

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 03/07/17

FTSE 100 continues to be suppressed by Brexit uncertainty, *GBP/USD strength > 1.30 on hawkish Carney and weaker disposable income given consumer confidence fell to a record low.

"She's taken some absolutist positions on particular issues. I'm thinking of the European Court of Justice," Chapman said. "There have been red lines that have been set for him that make the job he has to do very difficult."

Although Chapman praised Davis as a "tough, resilient operator" he said the position on the ECJ had left Britain "hamstrung" in the talks."

Oil prices rose to $49 on brent crude yet this failed to stop a slide in the index sub 7300. Weekly and daily chart indicates support at 7300. *If we break 7300 support then 7100 is next .

10 and 60 mins chart remain vulnerable with lower lows and lower highs in play. *The key resistance to break on the upside for the bulls to retake control is 7380.

FTSE 250 and FTSE 350 are into support but if Oil starts to turn south and GBP remains strong then expect FTSE 100 to slide further.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for 13/07/17

FTSE 100 was helped by dovish comments from BOE Broadbent and stronger employment data. This allowed the index to break through 7385 resistance and hit next resistance at 7440.

Brent crude has found resistance at $48.8 *with sterling finding support at 1.2820.

Chinese data overnight will dictate sentiment tomorrow .

The resistance at 7440 is expected to hold with support at 7385 expected to hold too.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

FTSE 100: Trading Plan for Monday 24/07/17

FTSE 100 initially pushed higher on friday led by Vodafone as surpassed 7500 only to reverse sharply and close the gap below at 7430 zone. *Th daily chart has now held resistance at key diagonal trendline which corresponds with Fib 75% resistance, so 7515 is the key resistance level to watch, if we breach then bulls take control upto 7560-7600.

60 mins chart has support at 7430-7440.

10 mins chart has gap fill support at 7430, resistance at 7470 , 7490, 7515.

 

[InterMarket-Analysis]

US and Asian equities close higher overnight , FTSE 100 expected to open flat as we digest earnings news. *Stronger earnings from EU automakers should help reverse the decline after the recent round of weakness in the sector. GBP/USD and EUR/USD are lower overnight as the Dollar catches a bid following US healthcare vote + FOMC, thus should again help UK equities. Oil and Copper remain bullish therefore I expect a move higher on the FTSE 100.

Resistance remains at 7450 zone , if we surpass that then the next resistance is seen at 7470 , 7515.