If you're bored...

[cr6196]

yeh i have done that before. its pretty hard to cut down on the basis risk completely tho (i.e not enough offsetting markets). point/goal spreads offer some nice oppurtunities in that area altho i can see how that could be automated. i remember i did one like this for big brother, it worked out in the end but was pretty illiquid.

i think thats why something like IPL is good. lots of decent data and the game doesn't change too much. i have neither the data or the skills to pull off that operation tho.

 

[15 min tlb]

If anyone is bored go musterbate , find arab in timbuktoo and phACK THE ANIMAL

 

[DashRiprock]

yeh i have done that before. its pretty hard to cut down on the basis risk completely tho. point/goal spreads offer some nice oppurtunities in that area altho i can see how that could be automated. i remember i did one like this for big brother, it worked out in the end but was pretty illiquid.

i think thats why something like IPL is good. lots of decent data and the game doesn't change too much. i have neither the data or the skills to pull off that operation tho.

mate I aint got no basis risk, just execution risk (like you get legged out somewhere).

I had the sh!ttest luck on football betting, I bet agaisnt the draw yesterday and closed it (like 30 seconds I promise) before the goal, and then today i bet against the draw ages ago, and then theres nothing until like the 95th minute, and I close it out, and then theres a penalty! And then theres another one to make it back to a draw!

Im just gonna punt on what I know from now on.
If you want a clue, you can arb the man u vs newcastle game right now

 

[rsh01]

and then today i bet against the draw ages ago, and then theres nothing until like the 95th minute, and I close it out, and then theres a penalty! And then theres another one to make it back to a draw!

eh? so you saved money (reduced your losses) by closing it out when you did (though why you are closing bad bets out in the 95th minute is beyond me), instead of letting it run to FT, which i can only assume you wld have done after the Arsenal penalty, and thus wld have been worse off (marginally) when Liverpool equalise.

and you classify that as unlucky? the game looked fairly evenly matched to me. you were wrong not unlucky. agree though with one thing, give it up.

 

[DashRiprock]

eh? so you saved money (reduced your losses) by closing it out when you did (though why you are closing bad bets out in the 95th minute is beyond me), instead of letting it run to FT, which i can only assume you wld have done after the Arsenal penalty, and thus wld have been worse off (marginally) when Liverpool equalise.

and you classify that as unlucky? the game looked fairly evenly matched to me. you were wrong not unlucky. agree though with one thing, give it up.

If you actually read my original plan was to close it after a goal had been scored or someone had been sent off; Its a long volatility trade, and with 3mins to go the short theta was killing me. I had taken the view that arsenal were playing such a dislocated game that they were resigned to a draw, something that liverpool would readily accept.

I made the right decisions at the right times; no complaints from losing here mate. On aggregate, these decisions will average out and it could be determined whether or not my "there will always be vol spikes, regardless of the close" strategy had any merit.

 

[rsh01]

If you actually read my original plan was to close it after a goal had been scored or someone had been sent off

so you didnt stick to the original plan, yet......

I made the right decisions at the right times; no complaints from losing here mate.

oxymoron?

 

[China Diapers]

http://www.futbol24.com/Live/ not good enough for you??[/QUOTE]

Thanks for the link