If you're bored...

Ha ha, put your money where your mouth is.

You are going to have to give me time for my developer to sort out my terminal freeze issues, I don't have time to manually watch 20 games at a time right now, almost blinded me last time, hence the need for automation.
 
Are you doing this from the pub? If so, no probs. I just have that Live Scores site up and it alerts me to goals.

Usually, I have about 20+ tables up and just wait for the goals to come in. As soon as it reaches HT, if the score isn't what I'm looking for, I close and load up a few more games that are starting.
 
Nice odds. When **** finally pulls their fingers out of their senals, you'll be laughing.
 
basically I consider it a "Howard Cohodas" approach to sports trading. I have no clue what a fair price is, but Im working on the basis that either a) someone will score a goal, or b) someone will be sent off before full time, and in that case the draw should become alot more unlikely, price goes up, I cover.

:)
 
im listening on the radio, its still on, bout 15 mins to go afaik.

serves me right for punting on something I know nothing about

1.53 last
 
search for bill benter (he died recently i believe but made over $150m), dufficy or ziemba (famous academics like victor lo and thaler have done research in this area too). the book Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets has most of the research. the way to trade value is use logit regressions (or most successful). whilst markets may not be efficient in play, gamblers at the hong kong races (unbelievable liquidity, $100m+ a race day isn't unusual apparently) where its a parimutal market (i.e less efficient bet)bet on very very marginal mispricing at the most it will be 1% or so...so you can make money doing this on betfair (way more efficient), i wouldn't bother tho.
 
DashRiprock said:
im listening on the radio, its still on, bout 15 mins to go afaik.

serves me right for punting on something I know nothing about

1.53 last
Click to expand...

Oopsie. You're right. I had it marked on my watch list but have since shut down everything because I only had outstanding bets on the Elfsborg game which finished at 17:20.

Good luck!
 
cr6196 said:
i wouldn't bother tho.
Click to expand...

If you have a system that works, then trade it - I know of someone who makes about £2k-3k per game from trading football odds.

One "great" thing about football is that the FA/news is unique for each game. And if you get something like a nuclear power plant meltdown, you don't have to worry about seeing a massive loss if you were in a trade - if the game is cancelled, all bets are cancelled.

The disadvantage in not being able to use leverage is a big one as is the fact there's only one decent exchange (Betfair).
 
yes, with team games there are slightly different elements i suppose and i've made money from "FA" but its extremely inconsistent and can't be put into a system. i also don't see how it can be tested systematically.
i'm wary of any "story" or someone who knows someone. if you know it is a rigorously tested system with actual information about its performance then thats great but the fact that it makes money doesn't mean much, as you'll know. IPL has always seemed an interesting possibility as well.
what you mean "pure arb"? trading on value?
 
cr6196 said:
yes, with team games there are slightly different elements i suppose and i've made money from "FA" but its extremely inconsistent and can't be put into a system. i also don't see how it can be tested systematically.
i'm wary of any "story" or someone who knows someone. if you know it is a rigorously tested system with actual information about its performance then thats great but the fact that it makes money doesn't mean much, as you'll know. IPL has always seemed an interesting possibility as well.
what you mean "pure arb"? trading on value?
Click to expand...

well yeah I agree about "fair value" and "fundamental analysis", if I was actually going to punt directionally Id do it all forward looking (so stupid stats like everton have lost by at least 2 goals 8 out of the last 11 times the opposition left back is has been non-english but only on a saturday 3 o clock kick off and when the ref is welsh) are not of any interest to me, Id need to know about football and player form and specific players vs other players etc...

I dunno maybe you can bet based on player ratings, position in table, your own "proprietary" metrics of offense/defense etc... anyway too much effort for me :/

by "pure arb" I mean mispriced bets you can trade against each other
 
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