I Stopped Using Stops

[tar]

How about if the trader continued to play Oil long (for reasons I couldn't imagine) and as well as being long his line At 45.25 managed to average 0.2% profit per day as well.
It obviously wouldnt be a big loss but would it still be a terrible trade / unprofessional?

Yes , if the trader kept buying Oil from $100 all the way down to $45 - and assuming he has enough funds in his account - , and lets say managed to exit all of his longs at 60 for a profit , even if he managed to average 1% daily then that's a terrible low quality unprofessional and a big loss trade .

But if a trader bought oil at $100 and closed at $99 then thats a great trade even if he lost some money . It seems that some traders look at the outcome of one trade/group of trades i don't .

 

[darktone]

Yes , if the trader kept buying from $100 all the way down to $45 - and assuming he has enough funds in his account - and lets say managed to exit all of his longs at 60 for a profit , even if he managed to average 1% daily that's a terrible low quality unprofessional and a big loss trade .

But if a trader bought oil at $100 and closed at $99 then thats a great trade even if he lost some money . It seems that some traders look at the outcome of one trade/group of trades i don't .

Why would he need lots of funds? He be managing his size! Hed be at tiny risk. Thats the whole idea of managing your size.

Over 90 days at 1% profit per day +90% or +200% odd to present day
Aved long at 45 and out at 60 for xyz profit

must be some misunderstanding going on here. I dont see how -100 is better than that. lol

 

[darktone]

No misunderstanding . If he was trading at tiny size he wont make 90-200% anyway . Lets assume he is trading at a very small size i would still say thats a terrible unprofessional low quality trade/s , and the -100 trader is much better .

Im hoping you had a good night out before you posted n deleted that one mate.:drunk:

 

[new_trader]

Even with your 15 years in (which I can match btw), Its entirely possible that the reason Its 'beyond you' is that you maybe a touch less savy than you think you are.

I think I do, and as a previous advocate of stops I see now see it as a flawed view, from the point of profitability at least.
Theres one order you missed btw, a limit order.

You've been trading for 15 years and you were once an advocate of stops, but now you trade without them. How many years have you been trading without using stops?

 

[tar]

Im hoping you had a good night out before you posted n deleted that one mate.:drunk:

I felt i am repeating myself over and over so i deleted it but i stand by what i've said you don't need a screenshot :

"No misunderstanding . If he was trading at tiny size he wont make 90-200% anyway . Lets assume he is trading at a very small size i would still say thats a terrible unprofessional low quality trade/s , and the -100 trader is much better ."


As i said earlier it seems many traders care so much about the outcome from a trade or group of trades , i dont , even in Vegas you can make 100% return in minutes so its irrelevant how much you can make short-term . Go to zulutrade website and pick any averaging-down clown and there are many of them , they all make sh@@t load of pips month in month out but it always ends the same way .

 

[darktone]

Originally Posted by darktone View Post
..................How bout the exits Jon? That second trades exit was unbelievably lucky. Right?.....................

Pretty much spot on and I can't see any reason why you should cover it all there. Do tell.

Ok.
Both entry and exits were by design. Do I know anything? Of course not.
After the shorts were placed I started to hedge (ooo taboooo). Im kinda surprised no really got close bearing in mind the methods that have been discussed. My money was on you Jon. Tim got closest.
What stopped you guys from seeing the now seemingly obvious play? seriously, ask yourself the question.

Trade 1:-
Into the trade having to scratch 1 unit before discovering the top. When I hedged, that was it, the market went no lower. I traded out a bit later.
stats:-
Time in trade = 70mins (Time in play, the time at risk was much less)
Round turns = 5
Position size = 0,20ppp (2 units of 0.10)
Max size = 3 units (max unhedged size at any time)

Scratched trade p/l = 0.08 ( p/l of managing the position)
Trade out p/l = 0.26 ( p/l of trading out, inc spreads)
Position p/l = 2.77 ( p/l from ave entries to final cover)
Total p/l = 3.11


Trade 2:-
Again into the short. No managing needed as It went no higher. Prices started to turn down and to get the hedge on. Prices broke lower and gave me a -3.75 loss in the scratches (this was obviously offset by the improvement of the hedge). My performance was mediocre at best.
So on we go, mange manage mange. By the time the final low was made I had improved my scratched loss to 0.19, again, performance was mediocre given the price action. Price drifted higher for while before trading out.
stats:-
Time in trade = 192mins
Round turns = 32
Position size = 0.02
Max size = 4 units

Scratched p/l = -0.19
Trade out p/l = 0.49
Position p/l = 25.24
Total p/l = 25.54

Youll all have your views on the above, but one thing that should be common is the campaigns were not so lucky / amazing / skilful / difficult / unbelievable as they may seem.

 

[tar]

OMG what a great trader he knows what he's doing , 4 years steady profits , he thinks outside the box :clap:

 

[tar]

What happened , i cant believe this ?!

He is averaging down thats what happened . He has no SL thats what has happened . -3200 pips and still holding .

 

[tar]

Best trader on earth ! He trades cable in the Asian session , he doesn't need stops he knows how to manage his trades .

 

[tar]

Noooo ! Why ?! No stops thats why , no exit plan thats why .

This guy was number 1 in zulutrade for years , he ruined many lives .

 

[new_trader]

Tar,

The difference, as I understand it, is that those traders didn't know that they didn't know shіt!

 

[peakoil]

Some people have mentioned 'black swan events' as the reason why you should always have a stop in place.

Well, I happen to have this response for them:

A non-guaranteed stop can be barely worth more than the pixels seen on screen, during a true black swan event.​

How can I say that?

Let's just say I've been at this long enough...

 

[darktone]

You've been trading for 15 years and you were once an advocate of stops, but now you trade without them. How many years have you been trading without using stops?

The last I ever placed was on 03/02/14. Unfortunately it wasnt in the PM acc.
Might get it framed and put on the wall.

 

[tar]

Tar,

The difference, as I understand it, is that those traders didn't know that they didn't know shіt!

Warning made Apr 13 , 2013 .

I don't have to wait to know , he's not a skillful trader and he has nothing to do with proper trading i said that about FCC while he was at the top , Kama is not even interesting compared to other signal providers check F8 for example he survived 3 years and counting , it takes time for his real odds to kick in it depends on market conditions at the time but at the end most of them are going back to the starting line !

F8 and FCC are the traders in the screenshots earlier , Kama disappeared from the face of the earth ofcourse .

Feb 7 , 2013

f8 very risky check his past DDs .

 

[new_trader]

The last I ever placed was on 03/02/14. Unfortunately it wasnt in the PM acc.
Might get it framed and put on the wall.

If I were to read through all the posts you've made on trade2win prior to 03/02/14, would I find the same cocksure attitude about your trading ability as you are displaying since 03/02/14?

 

[tar]

Some people have mentioned 'black swan events' as the reason why you should always have a stop in place.

Well, I happen to have this response for them:

A non-guaranteed stop can be barely worth more than the pixels seen on screen, during a true black swan event.​

How can I say that?

Let's just say I've been at this long enough...

Yes ofcourse , but not using stops prolongs your holding period which makes your account vulnerable to black swan events ...

 

[Forexmospherian]

Morning Darktone

I think I understand what you are doing - and if you are able to hedge as well and manage yourself out of unprofitable positions - and even better - make a profit out of them - brilliant .

However, I have to agree with Tar - I always worry with traders who have open trades - not so much with the ones only a few hours or days - but the ones over a month - quarter - or even a lot longer - like Marius the Private Fund manager - over 15 months on the Euro. The fact that he peels and pyramids helps etc- along with ultra low stake % size - he's still got an account ( and customers) - but I still think its so inefficient.

My advice would be to take the hits - as small and quickly as possible - manage your win ratios - ideal try and ensure its over 60% wins ever 100 trades - the odd 10 or 20 trades you have with a win ratio under 50% or 40% are no problem if some of the wins in that group make RR's of 3 or 5 or more - and with a proper combination of low drawdowns - controlled win ratios - ideally every 500 trades between 65 and 85% - RR ratio averages over 1.5 - I have loads of just 1 ( risk 3 -5 pips - only make 3 or 5 pips) - but then others at 3 and 5 and at least once a week over 15+ ( ie risk 5 pips and it make over 75+ pips from entry and not counting any P& P's).

If you say - how do you manage your win rates - exactly the same way you manage your own way along with hedging even, Short term experienced FX traders should never be under 60% win ratios on batches of 50 or 100 trades. OK you might have a bad 2 hr session and only get 4 out of 10 correct - with some losses only 1 or 2 pips - but then you will have a good 2 -4 hr session - 85-90% win ratios along with some wins making RR 's over 3 + and bingo you are on fire.

End result -

1. You don't have to have stake sizes super low ( ie 0.1 or 0.3 % of capital )

2. Your losses - should ideally never be off hard stops - use soft stops and get out even minus 2 pips if you can - although better if it goes 5 pips your way and you see it not working and you take just 2 pips profit)

3. Your wins - I think we would all agree - let the winners roll - never fixed targets or even fixed times - if it goes on for hours or days or weeks etc and it efficient and you are P&P ing and just coining it - stay with it and keep smiling like that cat ;-)

4, End result - every week or month - a) win ratios - ideally above 60% to 85%- per 100 trades

b) drawdowns - (your money management risk) - ideally under 7%

c) RR ratios- average must be over 1 if you can average 2+ great

d) Open trades not in profit - None - never or 5 mins max in time

That to me is trading efficiency

Can it be done ? - just ask Major Magnum

Will it beat a no stops plan - leave trade open routine ? - hands down - every week every month etc

Regards


F

 

[darktone]

I felt i am repeating myself over and over so i deleted it but i stand by what i've said you don't need a screenshot

I think you are deluding yourself man.

Let me put it to you like this. Two traders show you their stats. You cant see which instruments theyve traded or the direction theyve played.
Both have had similar decent profits over a set time.

One trades very small, his draw downs are low.
The other trades a lot bigger. His draw downs are also considerably larger.

Later, in the interviews:-

Trader 1 (trades small,low draw downs)
He seems quite a passive, at ease reasonable man.
Mentions hes been trading long oil since aug 2014 and doesnt use stops.

Trader 2 (trades bigger,larger draw downs)
Also a very reasonable man but comes across quite opinionated about things.
Hes keen to talk about short oil when the subject comes up. He got that dead right!


Which one do you hire?

 

[tar]

I think you are deluding yourself man.

Let me put it to you like this. Two traders show you their stats. You cant see which instruments theyve traded or the direction theyve played.
Both have had similar decent profits over a set time.

One trades very small, his draw downs are low.
The other trades a lot bigger. His draw downs are also considerably larger.

Later, in the interviews:-

Trader 1 (trades small,low draw downs)
He seems quite a passive, at ease reasonable man.
Mentions hes been trading long oil since aug 2014 and doesnt use stops.

Trader 2 (trades bigger,larger draw downs)
Also a very reasonable man but comes across quite opinionated about things.
Hes keen to talk about short oil when the subject comes up. He got that dead right!


Which one do you hire?

Neither

 

[metrader]

I'm curious as to what others do in this regard.

I trade sometimes without stops. In such cases I make sure my margin is sufficient enough to cover all the possible moves. I can do this only by reducing stakes considerably (compared to stakes I use for scalping where I wouldn’t trade without tight stops)

These kind of trades last much longer and are hedged in a non obvious way. For such trading I can’t use stops - they would end up as a loss seeking tool preventing me from closing trades when I want.