I have found the Holy Grail indicator for the Dow Jones - 100% right so far

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If the stock market is a mathematical system which it is (purely mathematics) then there will be a technical indicator out there that can predict the next move on the Dow Jones. Technical indicators also work on pure mathematics. All you have to do is find a technical indicator where you can change the settings and parameters to then find the "Holy Grail" indicator. The truth is, I think tonight I may have solved the puzzle of the stock market moves and its complex patterns. Just need to test the system. Knowing my luck it will not work in real life but we will have to see what happens.
 
You will never find the perfect mathematical solution to stock market returns. If it existed the stock market would fail because everyone would be following the same set of rules and then trades could never take place - every share trade, index trade, FOREX trade etc. etc. needs a buyer and a seller.
In addition there are other factors which upset the calculations e.g. unexpected world events, better or worse than expected data etc.
If you can find technicals / signals which work for your set of circumstances and trading style more times than they fail, that is the best you will get, and in fact, that is what I believe investors should aim for.
 
BigDeal said:
You will never find the perfect mathematical solution to stock market returns. If it existed the stock market would fail because everyone would be following the same set of rules and then trades could never take place - every share trade, index trade, FOREX trade etc. etc. needs a buyer and a seller.
In addition there are other factors which upset the calculations e.g. unexpected world events, better or worse than expected data etc.
If you can find technicals / signals which work for your set of circumstances and trading style more times than they fail, that is the best you will get, and in fact, that is what I believe investors should aim for.
Click to expand...
Just because no one has found the "Holy Grail" indicator does't mean it does't exist does it? Maybe there hasn't been anyone born yet that is clever enough up until now to create the perfect trading system.
 
BigDeal said:
You will never find the perfect mathematical solution to stock market returns. If it existed the stock market would fail because everyone would be following the same set of rules and then trades could never take place - every share trade, index trade, FOREX trade etc. etc. needs a buyer and a seller.
In addition there are other factors which upset the calculations e.g. unexpected world events, better or worse than expected data etc.
If you can find technicals / signals which work for your set of circumstances and trading style more times than they fail, that is the best you will get, and in fact, that is what I believe investors should aim for.
Click to expand...
How many times in history have people said it doesn't exist especially things to do with the universe and then they have been proven wrong by science?
 
I hope you appreciate that I am not trying to put obstacles in your way just for the sake of it; I am keen to get involved in discussions where I have a point of view (very often derived from experience) and I think I can be of value.

Our perspectives aren't aligned at present, but I will watch with interest how you get on and wish you well in your endeavours.
 
batsonar said:
Just because no one has found the "Holy Grail" indicator does't mean it does't exist does it? Maybe there hasn't been anyone born yet that is clever enough up until now to create the perfect trading system.
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You tell 'em!
 
Just received the book I ordered from eBay - THE DELTA PHENONENON or THE HIDDEN ORDER IN ALL MARKETS - by Welles Wilder.
 
batsonar said:
Just received the book I ordered from eBay - THE DELTA PHENONENON or THE HIDDEN ORDER IN ALL MARKETS - by Welles Wilder.
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The Delta Phenomenon is based on lunar cycles and tries to predict turning points in the future. Here is a summary from the book.
Markets repeat directly or inversely . . .

Short Term Delta (STD)
A. every 4 revolutions of the earth, that is,
B. every 4 days.

Intermediate Term Delta (ITD)
A. every 4 revolutions of the moon around the earth, that is,
B. every 4 lunar months.

Medium Term Delta (MTD)
A. every complete tidal cycle, that is
B. every lunar year.

Long Term Delta (LTD)
A. every 4 revolutions of the earth around the sun, that is,
B. every 4 calendar years.

Super Long Term Delta (SLTD)
A. every complete total interaction of the sun, moon and earth, that is,
B. every 19 years and 5 hours.

Rotation
A. All Delta turning points from Point (2) till the end of the series maintain
a high/low or a low/high rotation.
B. This rotation may change in an Inversion Time Window.

Inversion

A. A change of the Delta high/low or low/high rotation.
B. An Inversion can only occur in an Inversion Time Window (ITW).

Inversion Time Window (ITW)
A. A period of time that repeats with an exact frequency.
B. The ITW begins with the last Delta turning point in the previous
series and continues until the second turning point in the new
series.
C. The ITW is the only place in time that an inversion can occur.
In-Between Point (IBP)

A. The IBP is an extra point in the series which may occur only in the
Inversion Time Window.
B. The IBP may occur on either side of Point (1) thus causing an
inversion resulting in a change of rotation.
C. The IBP may also occur on both sides of Point (1) thus causing two
inversions which result in no change of rotation.
Series

A. The number of Delta Turning Points beginning with Point (1) and
ending with the last point in the series.
Click to expand...

I think @4xis2ez uses a variation of the Delta Phenomenon but with different repeating periods. He writes his method avoids inversions.

Stock Market sell off coming late Aug. or in Sep.

I trade what I see. The holiday season is ending and the market condition might change again. One of the best advise that Mr Copan has released in his recordings, is to follow the market when the PA has and is confirming the scenario one has observed that statistically is likely to unfold in...
www.trade2win.com

This book has a similar theory of markets based on lunar cycles.

Decoding The Hidden Market Rhythm - Part 2: Metonic Cycles: A Non-Linear Approach To Identify And Trade Cycles That Influence Financial Markets (WhenToTrade) (Volume 2): 9781499562590: Economics Books @ Amazon.com

Decoding The Hidden Market Rhythm - Part 2: Metonic Cycles: A Non-Linear Approach To Identify And Trade Cycles That Influence Financial Markets (WhenToTrade) (Volume 2): 9781499562590: Economics Books @ Amazon.com
www.amazon.com

It basically says market turning points repeat every 8, 11, and 19 years.
 
trendie said:
There is a Delta Phenomenon thread here at T2W, curated by 2be.
Click to expand...

@4xis2ez posted the part of his method to avoid inversions in that thread.

The Delta Phenomenon by Willes Welder

Would it be statistically more significant if from all the sell-offs and all the full moons, not one of them occurred on the same day? That would be too obvious, and there would be no market on those days would there? Things do happen around the full/new moon I know I keep going on about...
www.trade2win.com
 
Its a noble quest you have to search for the Grail. Maybe you could research the cup and saucer pattern.

Also try reading King Arthur and The Knights of The Round Table. Sir Lancelot was the perfection of chivalry and the only knight capable of completing the grail quest I have read.

Maybe its not the grail that is all powerful but the search for it.
 
Set up a new £50,000 Trading212 practice account the other day. After the close of the Dow Jones yesterday my "Holy Grail" indicators were signalling a possible fall on the Dow Jones today. They were not giving me a definite "sell" signal but I went with my "gut" instinct and experience in reading charts. I am trading the futures. Dow was down about 200 points so I closed my "Short" position and took my profits. I closed 150 CFD contracts with a profit of £22,229.09.

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batsonar said:
Set up a new £50,000 Trading212 practice account the other day. After the close of the Dow Jones yesterday my "Holy Grail" indicators were signalling a possible fall on the Dow Jones today. They were not giving me a definite "sell" signal but I went with my "gut" instinct and experience in reading charts. I am trading the futures. Dow was down about 200 points so I closed my "Short" position and took my profits. I closed 150 CFD contracts with a profit of £22,229.09.

View attachment 294904
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It's easy to trade big with paper, what was the risk on this trade?
 
Dowser said:
It's easy to trade big with paper, what was the risk on this trade?
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That's the whole point there is no risk. It is to tests my system out under real trading conditions and to see how it performs. If my system fails I can just reset my account and use a different strategy until it works. Why would I be so stupid as to use real money to test my "Holy Grail" indicators out? Also a practice account helps you to learn to trade without fear and without emotions. Using real money would be "suicide" at this point in time. I'm not bothered about making real money. All I want to know is if my system is consistent in making profits.
 
Have yo tried backtesting the grail could save time of demo trading if proves unsuccessful.
 
batsonar said:
That's the whole point there is no risk. It is to tests my system out under real trading conditions and to see how it performs. If my system fails I can just reset my account and use a different strategy until it works. Why would I be so stupid as to use real money to test my "Holy Grail" indicators out? Also a practice account helps you to learn to trade without fear and without emotions. Using real money would be "suicide" at this point in time. I'm not bothered about making real money. All I want to know is if my system is consistent in making profits.
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By risk, I was referring to the size of your stop loss in relation to the size of your account. If you're just testing out a system, why are you bragging about 'making' £22K. Plus, you weren't actually testing your system because by your own admission, the trade was taken by 'gut instinct'!
 
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