How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

if u guys using ninjatrader, I could send one of my workspaces so u can see.(either ES, GOLD,CRUDE).
but u might need to install the indicator, since not everyone have this indicator that im using.

u can see my layout combined w/ my statement at least without revealing all my secret.

 

[Vaco]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

If its all such a big secret then what is the purpose of this thread?

Seems to me that after a long time of losing money your now making some and this thread is to blow your trumpet and show the world what you have achieved. In truth nobody really cares how much money you have made/lost. Those still new or struggling want a stratagy/idea they can test out. The rest are here to pass the time.

Like I said before As long as you have put some capital aside that you can start again with in the event of a blow out theres nothing wrong with what your doing and i give the credit that you seem to crave.

Good job well done, keep it up

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

since u say the word " seems", I don't think u read all my posts from the beginning. u just skip and keep asking questions.
I already mentioned that I lost money for 2 yrs and just recently I found this consistent valuable techniques & confidence i can make a living out of these. if u see in my profile u would see that i mentioned that I lost for 2 yrs.

What are you talking about dude ?
I share some of my valuable secrets and more importantly my personal trading statement (which no one ever did in any thread) so people can analyze how i win trading w/ little capital. I dont even charge people for telling some of my techniques. I answer every questions that you guys ask. why are you so greedy ?

I'm not fake like all the sellers out there who charge you with all their books,techniques,software,etc but dont give out their broker trading statement.

furthermore, I've only been trading succesfuly only 1 month and 5 days. not every people would agree with my techniques as you can see they dont agree w/ my avg down techniques which I discover and use it successfully.

I will still keep posting my statement so those little trader like me who need help
can analyze it. Reading my reply and posts would only help them. furthermore they keep viewing my personal statements so far.

if you dont care about how i make money thats your problem, none of my business. why do u even waste time asking me questions ? please dont mix it out with other people.

If its all such a big secret then what is the purpose of this thread?

Seems to me that after a long time of losing money your now making some and this thread is to blow your trumpet and show the world what you have achieved. In truth nobody really cares how much money you have made/lost. Those still new or struggling want a stratagy/idea they can test out. The rest are here to pass the time.

Like I said before As long as you have put some capital aside that you can start again with in the event of a blow out theres nothing wrong with what your doing and i give the credit that you seem to crave.

Good job well done, keep it up

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

Here is my today trading statement Jun 8,2010 (Tuesday). net profit of ~4940
I did cash in partial profit of 2k today. its in the statement under check cash

I didn't trade on monday june 7,2010 only took out $1k partial profit from last Friday June 4 profit.
but i posted it anyway.

u can just skip to june 8 if u want.

 

[bedsit]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

Hey Tommason.

What's the point about you posting statements?

How does it help somebody become a better trader?

PS I didn't check them. IMO it's a personal thing.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

you should read my thread and posts carefully before u ask me this question!!

u can analyze the way I average down either to make profit or exiting trade. I make big money from small and grow it. it so many things u can analyze.

btw just read the posts when i reply someone its very useful. I dont make this thread for nothing.

its not about showing off. if i do, I would just posts my profit without detail my trading entry and exit. then its gonna be useless. who cares about my profit if people cannot analyze the way i do it.
I even put daily statement so u can see just in case u trade on the same day and compare it.

if u just look at my net profit it wouldnt help you at all.

then after u read everything u can ask me more questions. thats gonna help much much more. u should also read my profile.
I am a daytrader so i close my position everyday.

Hey Tommason.

What's the point about you posting statements?

How does it help somebody become a better trader?

PS I didn't check them. IMO it's a personal thing.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

Time to roll over your trading on ES, YM, and TF charts to the September contract. I may trade the old contract for a while in the morning, then switch to the new.

Change all @ESM10 to @ESU10.
Change all @YMM10 to @YMU10.
Change all @TFM10 to @TFU10.

Sometimes rollover day is not that good for trading. The problem is, some people are still trading the old contract, and some the new, and thus the volume is not very large on either. This can make for unpredictable price action. On the other hand, sometimes trading is fine on rollover day.

Tomorrow the @ES, @YM, @TF will all reflect the prices of the new contract, not the old. So, for example, my @ES chart will show the same prices as your @ESU10 chart, but not the @ESM10 chart.

 

[bedsit]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

Time to roll over your trading on ES, YM, and TF charts to the September contract. I may trade the old contract for a while in the morning, then switch to the new.

Change all @ESM10 to @ESU10.
Change all @YMM10 to @YMU10.
Change all @TFM10 to @TFU10.

Sometimes rollover day is not that good for trading. The problem is, some people are still trading the old contract, and some the new, and thus the volume is not very large on either. This can make for unpredictable price action. On the other hand, sometimes trading is fine on rollover day.

Tomorrow the @ES, @YM, @TF will all reflect the prices of the new contract, not the old. So, for example, my @ES chart will show the same prices as your @ESU10 chart, but not the @ESM10 chart.

Nice one Tommason.

This post is helpful (to me as a trader eager to learn some new things)

PS I was under a wrong impression that your thread may be kind of rubbish thread – there are quite few of them with the members getting satisfaction from showing off how wonderful traders they are.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

hey thats fine man skeptical is part of life.
I'm just trying to help trader who doesnt make money and give them hope that we can do it! cause i was a loser myself. I was also a victim of those greedy seller out there.
you will learn more from me than any seller out there who sell thousand of dollars of garbage without revealing their own trading statement.

just read my posts & ask questions after u read.

anyway be careful next week as it will be option expiration week & rollover week for some futures contract. I'll try to trade less myself. need to focus on my summer class. I almost fail hehe. i wish someone can help w/this advanced options class.

ill try my best to answer questions.

Nice one Tommason.

This post is helpful (to me as a trader eager to learn some new things)

PS I was under a wrong impression that your thread may be kind of rubbish thread – there are quite few of them with the members getting satisfaction from showing off how wonderful traders they are.

 

[tommason]

CHARTS OF AVERAGING DOWN (3 charts) & TODAY'S PERFORMANCE SUMMARY.

hey guys update. check out my attachment for today's jJune 16 trading execution and performance summary. (1 excel file contain my performance & execution and 3 charts w/ real live execution)

You can see it better how I AVERAGING DOWN. for doubters out there.
I mean its risky but somehow i survive because of this.
again this is for advanced not for beginner.

Last friday i was losing huge try to make it back this week.but, I'm still net around 8k for June.

I'll post rest of my statement either tonight or tomorrow night. I wont be trading this Friday. (quadruple witching day). instead, I will go to Goldman Sachs office this Friday morning for annual conference crap.

hey be careful out there on this option expiration week,
those who use automated system try to use it wisely turn it on and off depending on situation.

good luck.

 

[gedward3]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

Wow Tom,

Thats some good trading you doing there.

I see you work off the Bollinger Bands quite a lot.
Is this a major part of your system.

Ged

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

oh I didnt put all my indicator over there. its just easier for people how to analyze my execution. somehow my ninjatrader can only show execution with 1 minute chart. but im using other timeframe.

I do use bollinger band all over my timeframe. because I mainly look for oversold/overbought area to averaging down.
of course this is not the only thing that I see. I use other indicator such as pivot, power trend( this is the only non free indicator), how far price has gone in terms of time and candle, how many degree the price, upcoming news.

i use mainly 2,4,14,60, and 768 minutes. I also look at daily (everyday) and glance weekly and monthly chart to see how far price has gone and look at moving averages(200,50 for long term) and 20,9,50 for short term it just depend.

and I also look at currency even I'm not trading it.

i always check this everyday so i can be careful trading around this important news. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

you know what I will try to capture my screen so you can see it urself next time.
I have 2 screen so I will cut each screen.

hope my today's posting helps. it has time and price so u can see how i average down.


here is just the indicator that I bought it from.
http://www.trading123.net/Ninjapowertrend.htm

Wow Tom,

Thats some good trading you doing there.

I see you work off the Bollinger Bands quite a lot.
Is this a major part of your system.

Ged

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

here are all my statement from last Friday till today.
lost almost 12k last Friday, still trying to make it all back this week. short by ~2k
Today I took 2k profit after getting decent profit. I'm afraid i will give it back to market so I took few of my profit.
Overrall, I took out 9k already on June.

hope I'll be making money tomorrow.
again any questions/critics are always welcomed.

ill try to post my execution price & time for each trade. preferrably w charts so u all can see my averaging techniques.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

as I promised, I am attaching 2 of my workspaces for gold and emini
and I also attach today's execution w/charts and excel (performance and execution as well).

I did pretty bad today, I had 10K drawdown from trading gold & realized almost 6k loss, so if you see my gold execution charts, it looks v messy. I was not patient enough. thats it. furthermore, option expiration week make the swing more unrealistic.

However, I end up making 3.1K but with I think my commission will be close to 1k as well. so net $2k, since I try to make up all the losses today. its just horrible day for me.

Ill attach my trading statement for today's trade tonite.
its gonna be lots of commission to pay.

the coolest thing is that I can turn the big loss into profit. which i wont be able to do it in the past. cause I would break down and so stressed. anyway usually i always net lose during option expiration week, but not this week luckily,

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

Here are some of the methods on how to make decision!! its kind of unorganized so pls ask me question if u dont understand! I'll explain my best.

this all depend, but usually this is good range for averaging down.
except maybe during option expiration, other important news(jobless claim, bernanke speaking,etc related).

always look for an oversold/overbought in BB,power trend, price degree the steeper the better.
the higher the timeframe, the stronger the retracement.
how do you know ? when price goes much further away from the overnight range.
by how much ?
for crude, usually it is by $1-2 range (u can also see euro/usd for correlation/divergence)
for gold, usually it is around $10 or so
for SP maybe 10 points or so.

same w/ daily pivot the farther it is moving from overnight range the better for scalping and avg down.

this price range estimate is more extreme during option expiration
just add more points

for example, today june 17,2010, after job claim data released, emini s&P hit high of 1117 but close was 1115.
it means that we need to anticipate 10 points below those 2,which is 1105 and 1107. however this week is option expiration,
so we need exxagerate those 10 points to 13 or so points.
furthermore, this was confirmed by big candle down which is I think more than -78 degree. good indication to scalp for retracement.

e.g. so for crude try to range it more than a 1 price range to $1.50, $2 or more range to scalp/avg down.
today crude high after stock market open is 77.80 and it sell off to 76.80 before it rebound slighlty (good time to scalp).
then it continue to drop 30 cents more below that 76.80.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

the method that I posted just means you want to find a high probability area to scalp. Thats all. the further the price drift from yesterday price the better ur chances.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

just a note: if you want to open the chart, i suggest to right click and open it in new window or save it in ur computer then open it.
If you just do left click w/ur mouse it would be pretty small that you cannot see.
u can see the pivot daily level that I watch. its really important for me when scalping

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

hey guys here is today thursday june 17 trading statement as promised.
my commission and fees are around 1400. eat up all my 3150 profit
so i only net profit 1700.98.

gees it was really bad day for me having to face 10k huge drawdown and huge 5800 losses early in the morning. just really stupid impatient trade by me.

Im just glad i survive this week.

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

I wanna explain about my huge drawdown in Gold for today's trade, I was trading within yesterday overnight price when I should have wait for Gold to move $10 range at least above or below overnight range. today it broke new high to 1252 actually. so how do i survive that ? simple I average down and I maxed out my buying power (stupid move) but the good thing is I did this early in the morning, price usually retrace back to give second chance to late morning trade who wait stock market open, moreover price is already severely extended if u see my 60 min chart!! it broke like 5 or 6 line and it has been green candle more than couple hours at decently steep angle.

so even if im wrong price would retrace eventually. and I did have 10k drawdown, and decied to take 5800 loss and made it back during the day till 1pm. gosh

so again it is consistent with my technique I describe in my previous post (if u read it ull know)

 

[tommason]

Re: How to win trading & when not to trade (I have 1 month real live record so far)

I wanna share a daytrading point of view from this online posting I found in internet.
I am sure most of us feel this way because most of us have been a loser.
and I agree few of his points thats why I never put stop loss anymore instead I avg down.

http://www.articlesbase.com/investi...g-making-big-profits-the-easy-way-109421.html

Wherever you go on the internet you see them day trading systems promising you a low risk way to make a fortune however ask any of them to produce a real time track record and you won’t get one.

Because day trading simply is not an easy way to make money it’s an easy way to lose all your money. Here’s why.

Day trading is big business and it’s a great story.

The story is that you can keep losses small and make profits all the time by scalping the market and build a huge fortune over time all for around $100 or so!

The reality of course does not match the hype.

Let’s look at the facts and why day trading does not work and will see you lose your cash.

1. The Odds are not on your side

Normally day trading relies on trying to predict what will happen in a day session.

How can you do this?

You can’t.

No one can predict what will happen in such a short term time period, it’s the equivalent to flipping a coin.

To trade forex markets you need reliable data and day trading can’t give you this.

2. Losses are kept small but

You have a huge chance of being stopped out.

Just like currency movement is unpredictable in a day, so to is volatility.

Day traders normally have small losses on trades but they have a lot of them. Now that by itself is not bad it’s a rule of successful trading.

3. Profits can’t cover losses

Day trading systems never run profits for a long period of time. They want to get in and get out and scalp a profit.

Now if there lucky to get one (and even day traders get lucky) it can never cover the losses they have and they have a lot of those.

So here is what day trading gives you

Small losses + High Odds Of Being Stopped Out + Small Profits + Low Chance of Success = Loss of Equity

The above equation neatly sums up why never can win and if you don’t believe it try this simple test:

Ask any day trader who sells a system to give you a track record of real time profits with real dollars ( not a hypothetical track record ) and you wont get one.

Most day trading vendors have the sense not to trade and make money by selling books it’s a lot easier to make money that way.

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