How To Think Correctly

[SOCRATES]

While we are at it....there are many examples of powerful agencies having the clout to persuade people to believe nonsense.

The best example I can think of at the moment refers to the moon landing of 1969.

The entire world was awestruck by this huge scientific an technological feat achieved by NASA.

The American Taxpayer had to foot a huge bill amounting to billions of Dollars.

The Russians took it in, hook, line and sinker.

And even I was taken in and stayed up all night to watch it, on black and white TV,but my auntie, now deceased, bless her, insisted all her life it was not possible, and was an animated film. and science fiction...or like The Eagle Comic.....and this caused family arguments that raged....for days and days!!!!

It now would appear. 37 years after the event that the whole question of a moon landing is in doubt, u c ?

This is not conspiracy theory by the way.

A film has appeared which was thought to have been destroyed years ago......

This film depicts what appears to be the lunar landing.

At first the film appears to be very realistic, but, no sooner does the astronaut put his feet on the surface and announces "One huge step for man and one giant step for mankind..." than suddenly...a lighting unit illuminating the scene becomes unfastened and clouts the astronaut...and suddenly...there is a shout of "CUT"....and out of nowhere there are all these guys running around yelling and fixing things...and leading to another "TAKE".

Now...this could be a hoax.

But...

There is other tape available...and this other tape shows the seven astronauts being interviewed in which they are chalenged to swear on the bible that they actually did land on the moon....all of them get very angry except one, who complies.

Now another very interesting clip...shows the idea...that the image of the earth...taken from the moon...is in purported to be a transparency put over the window and filmed and then replaced by darkness.......

When confronted with this suggestion...one of the astronauts threatens the interviewer...

But the clincher must be two bits of footage.

The first questions why....if the gravity on the moon is not so strong...why it is that the astronauts are not able to jump higher and also longer...

The second footage reveals...hold on...the astronauts jumping about and skipping...but there is a glint above them on certain frames that would indicate their being suspended by a wire...as used in theatres to create the illusion of flying...and then...the question is asked...as to why the astronauts appear to move so slowly...and when the footage is speeded up to twice the speed...everything looks normal.

Also there is the argument...that at a height of 75,000 miles above the earth...there is an impenetrable band of radioactive matter...impenetrable...which all space agencies were mindful of not breaching when manned satellites went into orbit.

Finally, in 1952 or 1962...I am not sure...Werner Von Braun...the creator of the apollo rocket...was said to have written a technical paper explaining that to send a rocket to the moon ... a manned rocket that is...complete with three stages ....and means of returning it to earth...would involve the construction of a rocket twice the height of the Empire State Building and weighing approximately 32,000 tons.....and the riddle is that the apollo rocket used in the mission to the moon landing only weighed 2,500 tons...

Now, If this is the case....and all this has been hidden from the American people who have a case against their government one would suppose...it illustrates the power of agencies, that no individual or groups of individuals, or even a nation as advanced and powerful ( and populated with so many clever :cheesy: citizens) as the United States can overcome, I respectfully and inquisitively submit.

 

[CYOF]

Wrong, wrong and wrong again!

It may take years for some, or months for others. And most will never succeed yes.

It will be 100% dependant on how one thinks!


But if trading is really as simple as you're stating it CYOF why aren't you making more headway?

But, I have already made my headway – if one cares to read back through my posts. I like a challenge now and again – but I am not stupid and know when to stop!

Just from an outsider's perspective to this thread, I can't really relate how all these definitions from the dictionary -no offense- would help me become a better trader or help me think correctly?

The dictionary reference is to show the exact meaning of the words – as most will have a different opinion which is not based on fact.


If anything, people should be posting examples of logical fallacies to give examples of (in)correct thinking.

This is ridiculous! The first step, as I have stated over and over, is acceptance. Not to accept is denying oneself the possibility of progression. To deny oneself is, to say the least, not the right thing to do.

 

[SOCRATES]

Wrong, wrong and wrong again!

This thread shows promise of getting better and better, I promise you....:cheesy:

 

[firewalker99]

reacting emotionally? don't think so, just like Socrates, you failed to read between the lines. If you are so sure of yourself, then why don't you try to be as great as a Newton, or an Einstein or a Planck, . . . and if you do this I will do the following:

First of all because I don't need to and I'm not motivated to do so. Sure, I could start teaching myself and inducing myself into the wonderful world of quantummechanics, string theory. But why would I? Unlike others who post on this board with the only purpose of promoting their ego. Unlike others I am perfectly in balance with myself and my life.

1) I will sing your praises, and so will the rest of the human race

Of course you will. Like all the masses do. You still haven't got it do you? I strongly suggest you read post #175 and #190 again on the "Trade2win or something else" thread. It is not about adoring, singing one's praise. In fact, it's the opposite. There is no need at all to adore one or sing his or her praise because the only thing he or she has achieved is excellence through hard labour, passion for their work and deliberate practice. The one thing we should have is respect. The uttermost respect for those who are willing to do that.

2) your name will be remembered for as long as the human race exists . . .

Believe me, I will spare the human race from that! Furthermore, that little moment in time is totally pointless. Unless of course for those who like to - time after time - repeat what a great talent that person had or was, and how it is very unlikely that we'll ever have someone like him or her... aaah yes... adoration...

3) when you die certain men might not even shed a tear, to quote the doctor who attended to Ramanujan as he died: "his death was too deep for tears"

Again you seem to have a need to refer to known geniuses. While there are probably very many out there who aren't as known. But if you insist. Ramanujan's mother was well-educated in Indian mathematics and Ramanujan was given a similar intensive training. Therefore he was already from early childhood confronted with maths which again proves that most geniuses lived in an environment which stimulated the development of [what you would call] their "talent".

 

[firewalker99]

It will be 100% dependant on how one thinks!

How one thinks has only so much to do with it. In fact, starting to think about each setup when you are trading live, will only make you second guess and miss out on a trade or act differently.
Some don't even need to "think" to make money in the markets, they can "feel" the flow of the buying and selling. But do keep thinking and studying instead of looking and acting.

But, I have already made my headway – if one cares to read back through my posts. I like a challenge now and again – but I am not stupid and know when to stop!

Last time around I checked your journal and you were about to test a new strategy. So why not pick up the challenge where you left of?

This is ridiculous! The first step, as I have stated over and over, is acceptance. Not to accept is denying oneself the possibility of progression. To deny oneself is, to say the least, not the right thing to do.

Ridiculous? So you are a couple steps ahead then?

 

[firewalker99]

While we are at it....there are many examples of powerful agencies having the clout to persuade people to believe nonsense.

The best example I can think of at the moment refers to the moon landing of 1969.

The entire world was awestruck by this huge scientific an technological feat achieved by NASA.

It now would appear. 37 years after the event that the whole question of a moon landing is in doubt, u c ?

You didn't have to wait until 37 years after the event. Already in 2001 there was a lot of commotion going on because Fox aired a programme called "Conspiracy Theory: Did We Land on the Moon?" Indeed, now that - 37 years later - NASA reports that the original tapes have gone missing, conspiracy theorists are handed on a silver plate exactly what they needed to back up their story.

As for the rest of your post, most of your arguments are addressed in:
http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/tv/foxapollo.html

For the record you are right that powerful agencies can cloud the public into believing something. But then I suggest you give a more accurate example. Perhaps the war in Iraq, where true motives only became clear later.

 

[dlpirl]

[Why am I not a vendor?]

That is a very good question and I am very pleased you have asked it.

This clearly demonstrates that the public is unable in the most part to progress beyond a certain point.

I am no longer interested in having to grapple with people who even at a rock bottom basic mechanical level have difficulty or find it impossible to control themselves.

If you get into the frame of dealing with the public then you will soon find it is a burden on your time which can be more profitably utilised trading, without interruptions, phone calls, faxes, emails, letters, visits, questions and yet more questions from people that regardless as to how clearly things are explained to them, do not seem to be able to grasp anything.

Above it there is no need for this as everything has been found.

At the mechanical level there is this collective drive in favour of sharing.....all sorts of arguments are presented in its favour....

At the mechanical level there is requirement for proofs, argument, rudeness, aggression, envy and all sorts of negative sentiments......

Thanks. I sure hope I don't end up that Jaded and "above it all". My intention is to provide tools which encourage responsible trading and investing. I don't disagree that people tend to act as you have described, but my intent is to lead away from that and towards greater personal responsibility. Thus my interest in the topic of thought and trading. Thats something I don't want to charge for -- personal growth is far too subjective.

 

[PKFFW]

While we are at it....there are many examples of powerful agencies having the clout to persuade people to believe nonsense.

The best example I can think of at the moment refers to the moon landing of 1969.

The entire world was awestruck by this huge scientific an technological feat achieved by NASA.

The American Taxpayer had to foot a huge bill amounting to billions of Dollars.

The Russians took it in, hook, line and sinker.

And even I was taken in and stayed up all night to watch it, on black and white TV,but my auntie, now deceased, bless her, insisted all her life it was not possible, and was an animated film. and science fiction...or like The Eagle Comic.....and this caused family arguments that raged....for days and days!!!!

It now would appear. 37 years after the event that the whole question of a moon landing is in doubt, u c ?

This is not conspiracy theory by the way.

A film has appeared which was thought to have been destroyed years ago......

This film depicts what appears to be the lunar landing.

At first the film appears to be very realistic, but, no sooner does the astronaut put his feet on the surface and announces "One huge step for man and one giant step for mankind..." than suddenly...a lighting unit illuminating the scene becomes unfastened and clouts the astronaut...and suddenly...there is a shout of "CUT"....and out of nowhere there are all these guys running around yelling and fixing things...and leading to another "TAKE".

Now...this could be a hoax.

But...

There is other tape available...and this other tape shows the seven astronauts being interviewed in which they are chalenged to swear on the bible that they actually did land on the moon....all of them get very angry except one, who complies.

Now another very interesting clip...shows the idea...that the image of the earth...taken from the moon...is in purported to be a transparency put over the window and filmed and then replaced by darkness.......

When confronted with this suggestion...one of the astronauts threatens the interviewer...

But the clincher must be two bits of footage.

The first questions why....if the gravity on the moon is not so strong...why it is that the astronauts are not able to jump higher and also longer...

The second footage reveals...hold on...the astronauts jumping about and skipping...but there is a glint above them on certain frames that would indicate their being suspended by a wire...as used in theatres to create the illusion of flying...and then...the question is asked...as to why the astronauts appear to move so slowly...and when the footage is speeded up to twice the speed...everything looks normal.

Also there is the argument...that at a height of 75,000 miles above the earth...there is an impenetrable band of radioactive matter...impenetrable...which all space agencies were mindful of not breaching when manned satellites went into orbit.

Finally, in 1952 or 1962...I am not sure...Werner Von Braun...the creator of the apollo rocket...was said to have written a technical paper explaining that to send a rocket to the moon ... a manned rocket that is...complete with three stages ....and means of returning it to earth...would involve the construction of a rocket twice the height of the Empire State Building and weighing approximately 32,000 tons.....and the riddle is that the apollo rocket used in the mission to the moon landing only weighed 2,500 tons...

Now, If this is the case....and all this has been hidden from the American people who have a case against their government one would suppose...it illustrates the power of agencies, that no individual or groups of individuals, or even a nation as advanced and powerful ( and populated with so many clever :cheesy: citizens) as the United States can overcome, I respectfully and inquisitively submit.

Magicians talk to other magicians with a knowledge and understanding only they can share.

Scientists talk to other (real and reputable) scientists with a knowledge and understanding only they can share.

Then you have the loons who talk to other loons with a no knowledge or understanding of what they talk about.

As firewalker99 pointed out, all the points you make with no true knowledge or understanding of the science involved in putting a man on the moon are addressed if one cares to look. But then why let knowledge or understanding get in the way of a good yarn right?

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[CYOF]

How one thinks has only so much to do with it.

It can not be - thought precedes all action - not debatable!


In fact, starting to think about each setup when you are trading live, will only make you second guess and miss out on a trade or act differently.

No one said that you have to "DWELL" on every little aspect of a live trade - in fact this is one of the major problems and is, as you put it, (in)correct thinking!


Some don't even need to "think" to make money in the markets, they can "feel" the flow of the buying and selling.

Read the first line again - not debatable!

But do keep thinking and studying instead of looking and acting.

People are not stupid - we are talking about a different "PERSPECTIVE" on how to approach the way one should think in relation to trading from the outset. Read my posts on Expectancy and you will see that I have clearly stated that, Expectancy is of no use unless you have a live sample set with at least some winning & losing trades. These winners & losers can only be obtained by using a "METHOD", the "METHOD" chosen been entirely up to the individual, and more importantly, the individual's personal circumstances - e.g, it is of no use contemplating scalping if you can not dedicate 100% of your time to the first hour that the market opens - this is the best time to scalp with the possibility of more winners than losers than any other time of day.


Last time around I checked your journal and you were about to test a new strategy. So why not pick up the challenge where you left of?

I am actually considering scraping my journal altogether - and start concentrating again on what I need to do, not what I want to do!


Ridiculous? So you are a couple steps ahead then?

Yes - I am actually well advanced.

So much so, that my thinking is such that when I return to daytrading, it will be a matter of click, click ,click, finished for the day. The 95% can have the rest, I have no interest is sitting all day in front of several screens trying to justify what did, or might, happen. This is not the way to trade successfully – the longer you are in front of the screen, the more your thinking becomes distorted – so , unless you have reached the level where your subconscious has truly taken over, then it is better to limit your time to 1-1.5 hr max.

You see, the best thing I ever done was to walk away from daytrading day in and day out – why so?

Because, I was able to reflect on all that I had done, and as I have stated in previous posts, most of what is "PUT" out there is total crap. Unfortunately, most will never realise this, as they will not take that major leap and go “fulltime” to see what really happens when you must “JUST DO IT”. The whole point is that, there are many shortcuts that one can take, but in order to even realise that these shortcuts exist, one must first look at trading from a different “PERSPECTIVE” - see definition below.

This major “SHIFT” requires a change in the way one normally thinks, and again, acceptance of this fact is the first step.

Unless this fact is accepted, then, one can “EXPECT” to stay with the majority – and this is why there will always be the 95% who never get to be able to make consistent returns in the market.

THINK ABOUT IT

Good questions by the way - it is a pity that more don't ask!

American Heritage Dictionary - Cite This Source
per•spec•tive (pər-spěk'tĭv) Pronunciation Key
n.
1.
a. A view or vista.
b. A mental view or outlook: "It is useful occasionally to look at the past to gain a perspective on the present" (Fabian Linden).
c. The relationship of aspects of a subject to each other and to a whole: a perspective of history; a need to view the problem in the proper perspective.
d. Subjective evaluation of relative significance; a point of view: the perspective of the displaced homemaker.
e. The ability to perceive things in their actual interrelations or comparative importance: tried to keep my perspective throughout the crisis.
2. The appearance of objects in depth as perceived by normal binocular vision.
3.
a. The relationship of aspects of a subject to each other and to a whole: a perspective of history; a need to view the problem in the proper perspective.
b. Subjective evaluation of relative significance; a point of view: the perspective of the displaced homemaker.
c. The ability to perceive things in their actual interrelations or comparative importance: tried to keep my perspective throughout the crisis.
4. The technique of representing three-dimensional objects and depth relationships on a two-dimensional surface.

 

[CYOF]

What happened to, Chartman? His charting and commentry on the Dow looked extremely helpful to beginners, unlike this thread.

Here we go again!

Please show me how to do it, and I will do it that way.

When are you all going to realise that THIS APPROACH JUST DOES NOT WORK

Wow, look at that, a real head and shoulders, and wait, wait, there is an ascending wedge as well, oh my god, maybe that is also a flag!

Bulls**t, all total crap and a total waste of time.

The majority of books are printed for one reason, and one reason only, to SELL.

Socrates, whom the majority seem to think is stupid, has hit the nail on the head, but because all are so caught up in the "false illusion" created by the "people in authority", then History will continue to repeat itself, over and over.

Why did the Bastille fall in France, and change the history of Europe, and the world, for that matter. If you think this type of thinking has no relevance as to how one trades, then you are doomed to stay with the 95% majority.

I will leave you all think this one out for yourselves - as it it better that I do!

Ok, I will help somewhat, for the moment, but I will not continue to do your thinking for you, as it just will not work that way!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bastille

 

[PKFFW]

Here we go again!

Please show me how to do it, and I will do it that way.

When are you all going to realise that THIS APPROACH JUST DOES NOT WORK

Wow, look at that, a real head and shoulders, and wait, wait, there is an ascending wedge as well, oh my god, maybe that is also a flag!

Bulls**t, all total crap and a total waste of time.

The majority of books are printed for one reason, and one reason only, to SELL.

Socrates, whom the majority seem to think is stupid, has hit the nail on the head, but because all are so caught up in the "false illusion" created by the "people in authority", then History will continue to repeat itself, over and over.

Why did the Bastille fall in France, and change the history of Europe, and the world, for that matter. If you think this type of thinking has no relevance as to how one trades, then you are doomed to stay with the 95% majority.

I will leave you all think this one out for yourselves - as it it better that I do!

Ok, I will help somewhat, for the moment, but I will not continue to do your thinking for you, as it just will not work that way!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bastille

CYOF, forgive me if you have answered this already. I will admit to mostly scanning this thread and not reading every post in detail.

My question is, what do you use to make decisions on when and why to place a trade?

I do not ask so that you will reveal your secrets and tell me how to do it. I simply mean in general terms. For example I use price action with volume, or I use a MA with a stochastics. Whatever.

My next question would be, why is whatever you use to make decisions good and right and proper but what is written in books is crap?

I ask because in your recent post you seem so disdainful of chart patterns and pretty much anything that is written in a book. So obviously you must have something else to use. How is what you use any better than what someone else uses? Simply because you think about it correctly?

We all need to learn somehow. Having someone show us what has worked for them, for many people, is a good place to start learning. Did you not do the same when you started? Or were you simply born knowing how to read a chart and divine the underlying price movement?

If I use the M4(an australian road) to get to the blue mountains and you use Richmond road instead will we not both end up in the blue mountains?(take my word for it, we will!) Doesn't matter what I think about your route compared to my route, the destination is the same.

I agree we all need to think about trading correctly in order to succeed. However from many of your posts(and again I admit to not fully reading every one of them so I apologise if I've missed any important ones) I get the impression that you feel yours is the only valid way, the only valid opinion. Even with my own limited experience of trading I know that this is not the case, regardless of how one thinks about it.

Cheers,
PKFFW

 

[CYOF]

Now we are getting somewhere.

PK, you are right to ask questions, and you were correct to state that you did not read the many previous posts.

This however, can cause some problems, in that, to post takes time, something which we all find hard to make. So, for future questions it might be better to use the RSS feed and download the thread in text format to print and read quickly offline - the moderators can help with questions on the RSS, as I am not fully up to speed on it yet. This will allow one to make some quick notes on certain topics that "catch their eye", and by taking notes a general overview of the subject in question can be obtained - sorry, but anything worthwhile requires work!

Back to your questions:

CYOF, forgive me if you have answered this already. I will admit to mostly scanning this thread and not reading every post in detail.

See above.

My question is, what do you use to make decisions on when and why to place a trade?

What I use should not concern you - what should concern you is what I say. If what I say is logical, and makes sense, then you have acquired new information that warrants further research.

I do not ask so that you will reveal your secrets and tell me how to do it. I simply mean in general terms. For example I use price action with volume, or I use a MA with a stochastics. Whatever.

I have no secrets - I trade the open - the "METHOD" I use is practised by many people, and consists of trading highly priced stocks based on leading /lagging sector/s movement.

My next question would be, why is whatever you use to make decisions good and right and proper but what is written in books is crap?

I consider it to be crap because I have proved to myself that it does not work for consistent profits. The market can do anything at any time - we all agree this. So, if we really believe that the market can do anything at any time, then why do we think that a certain chart formation means that the price is going to go up or down - it is only hoping, and we all know that hoping is of no use in trading.

I ask because in your recent post you seem so disdainful of chart patterns and pretty much anything that is written in a book. So obviously you must have something else to use. How is what you use any better than what someone else uses? Simply because you think about it correctly?

I did not say that "ALL" chart patterns were of little value. For instance, a 10Min engulfing candle can be of immense value, but only if it appears at a certain time (relative to the open price). We must be realistic here, I am not saying that charts are useless, for the chart is an integral part of trading, but I am saying that the emphasis put on charting techniques is way overstated by those who SELL books.

We all need to learn somehow. Having someone show us what has worked for them, for many people, is a good place to start learning. Did you not do the same when you started? Or were you simply born knowing how to read a chart and divine the underlying price movement?

No. My understanding of what Socrates means when he says that "traders are born", does not mean that a little baby is born with zig zag lines in his eyes. It means, that some people realise, from a very early stage in their life, that all is never what it seems to be. There is always a method in someones madness - always!

If I use the M4(an australian road) to get to the blue mountains and you use Richmond road instead will we not both end up in the blue mountains?(take my word for it, we will!) Doesn't matter what I think about your route compared to my route, the destination is the same.

Yes, but we will both have different experiences along the way, and I very sure that one drive has better scenery than the other, for they always do, as no two things are the same!

I agree we all need to think about trading correctly in order to succeed. However from many of your posts(and again I admit to not fully reading every one of them so I apologise if I've missed any important ones) I get the impression that you feel yours is the only valid way, the only valid opinion. Even with my own limited experience of trading I know that this is not the case, regardless of how one thinks about it.

Correct - it is my way of thinking, not yours, or anyone else's. But again, look back at History, and to whom do we owe the greatest gratitude, many will say to those who spoke out and fought for what they believed in - sometimes paying with their lives - as least we don't have to worry about that here, I hope

Cheers,
PKFFW

Note: In case anyone thinks I am trying to avoid the question as to how I place trades when trading the open - I can assure you I am not - I have posted details previously, and I am not repeating the whole thing again - but to sum up, for those who have not the time to research

09:30> Open > Lead / Lag Sector > % Move > 10 min Reversals > Market Bias - TrinQ> Tier 1 > Tier 2 > Volume > T&Sales > Lev II > 10am Reversal / Continuation > 1 Min Candles > 10 min Candles > 10:30 Bye -Bye

I may have mentioned the use of Slow Stochs in the past, but this is also now banished from my screens as it is not consistent and is therefore only a distraction.

Conclusion: How you think will determine how you act. How you act will determine what you end up with. What you end up with determine what you do. What you do will determine how you think.

It is called a PROCESS

 

[firewalker99]

Here we go again!

Please show me how to do it, and I will do it that way.

When are you all going to realise that THIS APPROACH JUST DOES NOT WORK

Wow, look at that, a real head and shoulders, and wait, wait, there is an ascending wedge as well, oh my god, maybe that is also a flag!

Bulls**t, all total crap and a total waste of time.

The majority of books are printed for one reason, and one reason only, to SELL.

Apart from your last sentence, which is correct, I have to disagree with your statement.
Why should anyone studying chart patterns be going it the wrong direction? One could do perfectly fine if he traded only on clearly defined head & shoulder patterns with rigid rules and risk and money management in place. But as some will see patterns quicker than others (like a W-bottom for instance), some might need a little bit of guidance to show them what different pathways are available. If you have found a different one (say not studying charts at all), that's perfectly valid. However I don't see any reason why that invalidates any other means.

There are infinite number of ways to make profit in the market (which Douglas also describes in his book). Simple deductive reasoning leads us to this conclusion, as:
a) there are no ways (0) to make money => nobody is making money which is obviously not corresponding with the reality
b) only one person is making money (1) => if that one person shared his "secret" everybody else would be doing the same and hence the system would stop functioning
c) there are multiple ways to make money in the market.

The three options are 0, 1 or n.
And if n is possible then n+1 is possible, hence there are infinite possible ways.

 

[Splitlink]

Apart from your last sentence, which is correct, I have to disagree with your statement.
Why should anyone studying chart patterns be going it the wrong direction? One could do perfectly fine if he traded only on clearly defined head & shoulder patterns with rigid rules and risk and money management in place. But as some will see patterns quicker than others (like a W-bottom for instance), some might need a little bit of guidance to show them what different pathways are available. If you have found a different one (say not studying charts at all), that's perfectly valid. However I don't see any reason why that invalidates any other means.

There are infinite number of ways to make profit in the market (which Douglas also describes in his book). Simply deductive reasoning leads us to this conclusion, as:
a) there are no ways (0) to make money => nobody is making money which is obviously not corresponding with the reality
b) only one person is making money (1) => if that one person shared his "secret" everybody else would be doing the same and hence the system would stop functioning
c) there are multiple ways to make money in the market.

The three options are 0, 1 or n.
And if n is possible then n+1 is possible, hence there are infinite possible ways.

That's right. Use too many patterns and you will make a cockup all the time because many contradict each other. One, disciplined, approach to one pattern is all that is needed. Pick the one you like and stay with it.

I must say that I am not getting too much out of this thread. Too many pages. One can only read so much every day and if there is only infighting, then it is a waste of time.

Split

 

[nine]

Or a few patterns.

I like variations on a flag style pattern (someone elses naming not mine).

But I also like tested doubles in the right situation.

 

[firewalker99]

I decided not to copy your whole post, as it will make each post unnecessarily longer and longer, but I would like to reply to this particular paragraph:

I consider it to be crap because I have proved to myself that it does not work for consistent profits. The market can do anything at any time - we all agree this. So, if we really believe that the market can do anything at any time, then why do we think that a certain chart formation means that the price is going to go up or down - it is only hoping, and we all know that hoping is of no use in trading.

The only thing you have proven to yourself is that you are not able to make it work for you. Basically your are making a conclusion based on one (very short-time) experiment. If all scientific research was to be based on this kind of process, then why does research take as long as it does? This is exactly the kind of wrong reasoning that causes people to fall into thinking they can make rational conclusions. Let me give an example: you are sick and your usual medicine doesn't seem to cure you. You then turn to a homeopathic aid. Two days later you suddenly feel a whole lot better. Ah, it must be the homeopathy! Regardless of your beliefs about this pseudoscience, there could be a whole lot of other factors leading to your cure.

Yes the market can do anything at any time, but you don't need to know what the market is going to do in order to make money of it! Trading is a probability game. The only thing you need to do is make the odds work in your favour. It is not about hoping, it is about knowing what the odds are. So if we think that a certain chart formation means that price is going to go up, than we base that assumption on the slightly higher probability that defines our edge, given the parameters surrounding that particular situation. Hope has nothing to do with it, if you are aware of your chance and if you realize that for each given situation there is a x% chance of being right, regardless of the previous trade.

 

[CYOF]

To keep the writing as short as possible - which is a valid point - I will generalise.

What do I want to achieve?
When do I want to achieve it by?
How much time have I got to spare?
How much money have I got to spare?
What "Method" suits me best - allowing for the time I have available?
Am I totally committed?
What the hell am I doing anyway?

Now, the problem is that the majority do not know what the hell they are trying to do - they have no clear "PURPOSE" defined. I have previously posted some flowcharts in relation to "Purpose, Vision & Goals" for anyone who may be interested.

It is all relevant - that is why some will think "BIG" and the majority will think "SMALL".

I have no interest in trading for $200 - $500 per day, as I have already stated, for if that was my goal then I am much better off where I am.

But, $2K - $5K is a different story. Now I can see a means by which I can fulfil my "PURPOSE" in life.

Ah, I am also not foolish, and I realise that if I want to make 2% - 5% per day on $100K capital, then I need to trade with very small risk.

So, how do I trade with very small risk?

Well, I already know that the majority of the BIG PLAYERS come into the market early and leave around 10:30, so it may be wise to look at how this action can allow me to trade with low risk.

Are ye now seeing the picture - IT IS ALL RELEVANT TO YOUR PURPOSE.

I want to free up my time to fulfil my PURPOSE in life - not sit in front a screen for the most part of the day wishing and hoping that something will develop.

Bulls**t - I do not want to be like the majority, and I will not allow myself to be like the majority.

Why ?

Simple, because, if I adopt to thinking like the majority, then I will never fulfil my "PURPOSE" in life, and that is the most important thing to me.

Now, if one has no "PURPOSE", or if it is a "DREAM" that one contemplates on all the time, then the long and boring road to "TEXTBOOK TRADING" is well suited.

IT IS ALL RELEVANT TO WHAT YOU WANT TO DO WITH YOUR LIFE

 

[CYOF]

I decided not to copy your whole post, as it will make each post unnecessarily longer and longer, but I would like to reply to this particular paragraph:



The only thing you have proven to yourself is that you are not able to make it work for you.

Not correct - I have proven to myself that I can do it, as described.


Basically your are making a conclusion based on one (very short-time) experiment.

I do not consider 14 hrs a day (until I realised that most of what I was doing was crap) for 9 months a very short time!


If all scientific research was to be based on this kind of process, then why does research take as long as it does?

Idiots - that why. The reason why research can take so long is because they are working with a limited field of view - in other words they think like they have been thought to think, instead of creative thinking, where the real progress is made.This thinking is to comply with what the powers that be have laid down - History again!!!


This is exactly the kind of wrong reasoning that causes people to fall into thinking they can make rational conclusions.

?? - read the way I trade again - very logical.


Let me give an example: you are sick and your usual medicine doesn't seem to cure you. You then turn to a homeopathic aid. Two days later you suddenly feel a whole lot better. Ah, it must be the homeopathy! Regardless of your beliefs about this pseudoscience, there could be a whole lot of other factors leading to your cure.

Yes - and the one that will have the greatest effect on you will be the way you think - why do some old people die very shortly after their spouse passes away? - some say the lose the will to live -in other words, thy think themselves to death - many will have first hand experience of this, of which I have seen myself.


Yes the market can do anything at any time, but you don't need to know what the market is going to do in order to make money of it!

It is not possible to know.


Trading is a probability game. The only thing you need to do is make the odds work in your favour.


The only thing you need to do is have a "METHOD" that will give you a good positive Expectancy figure.


It is not about hoping, it is about knowing what the odds are.

It is about tight stops, fast exits, and some winners as well as some losers.


So if we think that a certain chart formation means that price is going to go up, than we base that assumption on the slightly higher probability that defines our edge, given the parameters surrounding that particular situation.

TEXTBOOK TRADING


Hope has nothing to do with it, if you are aware of your chance and if you realize that for each given situation there is a x% chance of being right, regardless of the previous trade.


You trade when the opportunity presents itself - no sooner or no later.

Regards,

 

[firewalker99]

I do not consider 14 hrs a day (until I realised that most of what I was doing was crap) for 9 months a very short time!

I was referring to the time you took to test out new strategies in your journal. If you studied chart patterns for 9 months 14 hrs a day, than one way or another I'm sure you noticed one way or another that some patterns to show potential. And for someone who was staring at the screen for about 6 months 12 hours a day, I happen to know very well what you're talking about.

Yes the market can do anything at any time, but you don't need to know what the market is going to do in order to make money of it!

It is not possible to know.

It is not necessary to know.

The only thing you need to do is have a "METHOD" that will give you a good positive Expectancy figure.

Hmm... this is starting to sound like all those books that tell you how to become a millionaire in months or even weeks... dwelling about expectancy will teach new wannabe traders little about live market reality.

It is about tight stops, fast exits, and some winners as well as some losers.

Wow, Neil is right, perhaps writing a book IS really something for you. These kind of "truths" can be found anywhere, especially in all those books available to the public you are so fond of refering to.

You trade when the opportunity presents itself - no sooner or no later.

Right, that's why you have a plan.

 

[SOCRATES]

What I expected - Socrates is proven correct again!

When I state repeatedly that I do not post for the majority but exclusively for a very small minority, who remain silent in public but behind the scenes it is buzzing, nearly everyone chooses not to believe me.

When I state publicly I am not interested in discussing my trading methodologies I am accused of all sorts of nonsense.

When I state that the great majority are unfit for this professon I also get a lot of vitriol.

When I say trying to reason with this lot is a waste of time and like trying to make water defy gravity and run uphill, it stimulates a lot of rudeness and insults.

When I say all of this is viewed by expert members who do not post and view all of this from a posturre of wry amusement and in quiet contemplation all sorts of stunts are performed to try to find out who they are.

When I state the the audience does not deserve help, is unworthy, and many behave like rude children in a playground out of control again it causes ructions.

Many members wonder why I actually bother to post.

The answer is now becoming self evident.

I post to have it illustrated that the points I make above are absolutely correct and this stops really expert traders from contributing incisevely and meaningfully to this circus.

Now you are beginning to experience for yourself the opacity and density I describe above.