How To Think Correctly

[andycan]

oh my!!
lets take a scenario
markets repeat? yes
not exactly but they do more or less
so with that conclusion there is nothing wrong with 'forecasting' what a market will do next, to say it wont make money is utter nonsense
i make forecasts all the time under the right situation a market will turn when it has to turn knowing that in advance gives you an edge certainly it does for me
i dont sell my forecast i simply make road maps of what is expected and adjust as i go along when everything looks right for a trade then i will trade it and it normally works out, but!!
if im wrong im wrong there is no ego therefore there is no issue i adjust and move on

 

[dlpirl]

Why China Wants War with the United States

And to follow on from my post above I will now give you my world view.

...China and the far east really get going and their demands for oil escalate, we are all going to be plunged into a 3rd World War. Inevitable it is.

If no one else will tell you, I will.

Chilling it is.

http://www.amazon.com/Showdown-China-Wants-United-States/dp/1596980052 Jeb Babbin agrees with you, bertie.

 

[Atilla]

oh my!!
lets take a scenario
markets repeat? yes
not exactly but they do more or less
so with that conclusion there is nothing wrong with 'forecasting' what a market will do next, to say it wont make money is utter nonsense
i make forecasts all the time under the right situation a market will turn when it has to turn knowing that in advance gives you an edge certainly it does for me
i dont sell my forecast i simply make road maps of what is expected and adjust as i go along when everything looks right for a trade then i will trade it and it normally works out, but!!
if im wrong im wrong there is no ego therefore there is no issue i adjust and move on

I fully agree with the above.

Knowing the unknowable and all that high brow stuff from chump - brought Rumsfield to my mind - another most obnoxious person who over ruled his advisors because he believed in him self and righteous ways so much even in his departing speech he suggested some people "simply" do not understand the Iraq problem. Let me guess they were asking the wrong questions...

Be interesting to ask him whether he had any plans (forecasts) for after the war? and when he knew things were going wrong?

Or would the question be when did he know things were not going as well as expected - when?

Let me guess... I'm asking the wrong questions and I am void of appreciating the answers to the correct questions which I don't know because I don't want to know...

Perhaps out of context but does anybody know the weather forecast for London tomorrow?:lol

 

[Atilla]

Andy,
You are not forecasting. You are anticipating based upon what you know. Huge difference. In fact anticipation is what markets are really about. Anticipation is taking action before all of the imformation is in and as such it gives you a price risk advantage. Forecasting is not proven until the information comes in by which time you have lost the price risk advantage. hope that explains a little better the point I am making.

Ooops sorry?

I asked the wrong question again...

Perhaps out of context but does anybody know what the London weather anticipation tomorrow is please?

 

[Atilla]

Ooops sorry?

I asked the wrong question again...

Perhaps out of context but does anybody know what the London weather anticipation tomorrow is please?

Oh dear I just realised something...

I expect I'm anticipating the weather because I have been told by the BBC and not worked it out for my self.

 

[dbphoenix]

I fully agree with the above.

Knowing the unknowable and all that high brow stuff from chump - brought Rumsfield to my mind - another most obnoxious person who over ruled his advisors because he believed in him self and righteous ways so much even in his departing speech he suggested some people "simply" do not understand the Iraq problem. Let me guess they were asking the wrong questions...

Be interesting to ask him whether he had any plans (forecasts) for after the war? and when he knew things were going wrong?

Or would the question be when did he know things were not going as well as expected - when?

Let me guess... I'm asking the wrong questions and I am void of appreciating the answers to the correct questions which I don't know because I don't want to know...

Perhaps out of context but does anybody know the weather forecast for London tomorrow?:lol

Attila, once you have a few years' trading experience under your belt, your opinions will carry a bit more weight. Until then, you'd probably be better off spending your time thinking and listening to those who do have the experience rather than opining on things you know little to nothing about other than what you've read or heard somewhere.

Db

 

[andycan]

Andy,
You are not forecasting. You are anticipating based upon what you know. Huge difference. In fact anticipation is what markets are really about. Anticipation is taking action before all of the imformation is in and as such it gives you a price risk advantage. Forecasting is not proven until the information comes in by which time you have lost the price risk advantage. hope that explains a little better the point I am making.

chump

i suspect they mean the same things under certain conditions
i maybe wrong here but to anticipate would mean more of a gut feeling something intangeble many factors together with an assumtion to giving a potential conclusion
to forecast is more scientific measureable, in this case mathematical may well have several potential outcomes but none the less a conclusion using a scientific/mathematical approach

 

[SOCRATES]

Apples and pears are not the same.

Proof of the pudding is in the eating.

I'm sorry but I don't see the relationship between forecasting / estimating and magic.

A magicians knows the expectation and outcome of his art before he performs...

A forecaster expects he knows the outcome of his art but surely not with 100% certainty.

No ?

OK I will explain it to you in simple language because obviously you have not uderstood the analogy.

We will have to start again...

A Magician performing for a group of children will present simple acts that will baffle and entertain children from a childish perspective.

He will perform for a group of adults to fascinate, tantalise, mystify and entertain.

He will perform for a group of fellow magicians to display his skills as an art form for the approval of his peers.

These are three very different things.

They become even more different at the extremes.

In the same way, a beginner in trading will be perplexed, confused and curious, and therefore he will follow a path which is very different to that followed by an expert.

The beginner will flirt with all sorts of ideas, including contrarianism.

The expert does not do this, he does not need to, he gets straight to the correct conclusion without unnecessary preamble.

The beginner will be involved in guesswork, perplexity, indecision and confusion.

The expert will be involved in quick assesment and execution without these nuisances.

This is because the latter operates already from a posture of near certainty involving expectation.

 

[dc2000]

APPLAUSE

encore encore

You da man Soc. celebrity Big Brother awaits

 

[Atilla]

No ?

OK I will explain it to you in simple language because obviously you have not uderstood the analogy.

We will have to start again...

A Magician performing for a group of children will present simple acts that will baffle and entertain children from a childish perspective.

He will perform for a group of adults to fascinate, tantalise, mystify and entertain.

He will perform for a group of fellow magicians to display his skills as an art form for the approval of his peers.

These are three very different things.

They become even more different at the extremes.

In the same way, a beginner in trading will be perplexed, confused and curious, and therefore he will follow a path which is very different to that followed by an expert.

The beginner will flirt with all sorts of ideas, including contrarianism.

The expert does not do this, he does not need to, he gets straight to the correct conclusion without unnecessary preamble.

The beginner will be involved in guesswork, perplexity, indecision and confusion.

The expert will be involved in quick assesment and execution without these nuisances.

This is because the latter operates already from a posture of near certainty involving expectation.

Hi Socrates,

I hear what you are saying and I appreciate the three distinctions.

However, I still hold the view the expert still refers to some form of forecast based on projecting his learned ways in technical charts and what ever inputs ( fundamentals, news or simply trading systems) they may use.

My point is forecasting is good. It's like benchmarking before you enter a trade as to what your planned expectation or reason for the trade and likely outcome is.

Is it not that placing stops / limits an indication that forecasting has taken place?

In fact placing a trade up or down is an indication some kind of projection has been visualised? Otherwise how can any trader place a trade?

:?: :?: :?:

 

[andycan]

Hi Socrates,

I hear what you are saying and I appreciate the three distinctions.

However, I still hold the view the expert still refers to some form of forecast based on projecting his learned ways in technical charts and what ever inputs ( fundamentals, news or simply trading systems) they may use.

My point is forecasting is good. It's like benchmarking before you enter a trade as to what your planned expectation or reason for the trade and likely outcome is.

Is it not that placing stops / limits an indication that forecasting has taken place?

In fact placing a trade up or down is an indication some kind of projection has been visualised? Otherwise how can any trader place a trade?

:?: :?: :?:

It is simple some traders are mechanical in their approach when X and Y does what it is supposed to do then a trade is initiate then when X and Y does something else then they cover or reverse not too sure on that approach

then their are those that use a variation of indicators when they all show a buy or sell they execute when those same signals show a reversal they cover or reverse the trade again many variations to it

and then there are those that read the markets using waves, structure, S/R, fib, geo Gann astro, patterns and what have you and buy and sell accordingly
some may use variations of the 3 some 2 some 1 there is no 'correct' way but one that suits you and works for you

 

[SOCRATES]

Hi Socrates,

I hear what you are saying and I appreciate the three distinctions.

However, I still hold the view the expert still refers to some form of forecast based on projecting his learned ways in technical charts and what ever inputs ( fundamentals, news or simply trading systems) they may use.

My point is forecasting is good. It's like benchmarking before you enter a trade as to what your planned expectation or reason for the trade and likely outcome is.

Is it not that placing stops / limits an indication that forecasting has taken place?

In fact placing a trade up or down is an indication some kind of projection has been visualised? Otherwise how can any trader place a trade?

:?: :?: :?:

Well of course, yes, but it goes deeper than that.

In the same way that the magician performed in a different way for his peers, because...his peers fully understand all the mechanics in the presentation of magic, therefore he has a feedback from his audience that he would not normally get from an "unitiated crowd" just being entertained.

This is a two way thing at a professional level for both sides, not just one.

Therefore a magician watching a magic show will view that performance from a totally different viewpoint to someone not tutored or skilled in the art of magic.

Now it happens...that in the market....all sorts of things are made to happen...with the price...with time...with volume...with intent...that have very close parallels with the performance of magic....therefore the skilled trader is able to act in accordance with what is presented...that is..... in harmony no matter what with the apparent perplexities and sheer apparent perversity of market action. It involves "tuning in" properly, in a very special and unique way, to follow the magic show, be alongside it and pre empt it.

That is what I mean by operating from a posture of near certainty involving expectation.:cheesy:

 

[Atilla]

Attila, once you have a few years' trading experience under your belt, your opinions will carry a bit more weight. Until then, you'd probably be better off spending your time thinking and listening to those who do have the experience rather than opining on things you know little to nothing about other than what you've read or heard somewhere.

Db

What is it with you and chump?

Patronising arrogance.

1. You make the assumption you can accurately determine what is worthy and and what is not. Arrogance or ignorance? I don't know does this sound like you are contradicting your previous guidance to me?.
2. As someone who has done econometrics and written a paper on it I do know something about forecasting and correllation coefficients and the 95% distribution curve. I certainly wouldn't claim to be an expert but been there done it.
3. I do have some experience of trading shares warrants and spread betting.
4. And I have a thirst for knowledge, enthusiasm to learn and the strength of character.

I quote "rather than opining on things you know little to nothing about other than what you've read or heard somewhere"

In all these you put down all my dear professors, teachers, colleagues and friends and articles in books and journals - in making some bold assumption that they are of no use. That is funny.

How stupid have I been listening to them when I should have been listening to you and chump?

You chaps belittle your selves with the title Emporers of Arrogance :!: Think bigger :idea:

I am surely not worthy of your esteemed replies...

 

[dlpirl]

teaching magic

Therefore a magician watching a magic show will view that performance from a totally different viewpoint to someone not tutored or skilled in the art of magic.

One very important ingredient is the motive of the "magician" aka master trader. Is it only to entertain (as you seem to be suggesting, bertie)? If so, he can be more captivating the less truth he reveals, But might not some "magicians" truely be teaching people to see because they are more intersted in seeing the awareness of others increase than in feeding their own ego?

 

[Atilla]

It is simple some traders are mechanical in their approach when X and Y does what it is supposed to do then a trade is initiate then when X and Y does something else then they cover or reverse not too sure on that approach

then their are those that use a variation of indicators when they all show a buy or sell they execute when those same signals show a reversal they cover or reverse the trade again many variations to it

and then there are those that read the markets using waves, structure, S/R, fib, geo Gann astro, patterns and what have you and buy and sell accordingly
some may use variations of the 3 some 2 some 1 there is no 'correct' way but one that suits you and works for you

My system at the moment is to base the trend using Weekly - Daily - Hourly - 15m charts with indicators being MA - MACD - RSI - and Stochastic. I also like Standard Error Channel and Finonacci retracements. MA 20d and 50d are my favourites.

I couldn't quite get my head round Wave theory.

Still learning but my losses have come down like an exponential curve. Most of my losses took place in the first year. I'm more or less at a trough now and improving based on reduced losses.

I'm tending toward trading weekly/daily as I trading is part time. I feel I have learnt a lot and with time hopefuly, will be positive

I trade US indexes, some oil - gold and the GBP-$. I found the FTSE100 too skewed by oils, banks and pharmacuticals to make proper sense of it.

Time will tell.

 

[dc2000]

In the same way that the magician performed in a different way for his peers, because...his peers fully understand all the mechanics in the presentation of magic, therefore he has a feedback from his audience that he would not normally get from an "unitiated crowd" just being entertained.

Ah yes but after many years of seeing the same magician come up with the same tricks, all smoke and no substance, his peers are likely to suggest he is deluding himself and convincing no one

 

[dlpirl]

independant trade and timer auditing

Ah yes but after many years of seeing the same magician come up with the same tricks, all smoke and no substance, his peers are likely to suggest he is deluding himself and convincing no one

Thus the need for tracking and objective comparisons in the trading world.

Has anyone here heard of collective2.com? Maybe not as it is pretty new. TimerTrac.com had an article in this week's Barron's.

 

[laptop1]

There is a very fine line dividing sense from nonsense.
The great majority are unaware of its existence, or, choose to ignore it. Consequently they succeed in misdirecting themselves to choose the wrong side of this line, for reasons best known to themselves. This is a source of amazement to those very few able to correctly logically deduce and reason, viewing nearly everything you will encounter here as nonsense, pure nonsense, that the majority ultimately embrace.

:

Trade2win
10. Signature Rules

10.1 Signatures should not be excessively long.

How do you get away with it Socs :?:

 

[counter_violent]

In all these you put down all my dear professors, teachers, colleagues and friends and articles in books and journals - in making some bold assumption that they are of no use. That is funny.

How stupid have I been listening to them when I should have been listening to you and chump?

Well this just about says it all. Do you really think these professors and teachers have given the majority of students the necessary in order to achieve. They can coach to a certain level, with a theoretical bias. They tend to know more and more about less and less. These are not very practicle people.... one of the biggest problems is....... they have never left school !

I'll tell you a story about a professor. Some years ago now I was involved in fitting out fume cupboards and lab equipment at a university. One day the suits, including a professor, were walking around inspecting the works and he came over to chat about the installation. He commented on the new underbench cupboards, some of which still had the corrugated cardboard wrappers on them....the handles back screwed to the inside of the doors for ease of wrapping, and how smart it was all looking. He was puzzled by the D handles and he asked....why do these cupboards have handles on the inside?....to which I replied..... oh, it's a new design....you see if anyone were to get inside a cupboard.....at least with the handle they can get out.... he was mightily impressed by this....remarking that it was such a simple clever idea....with that he wandered off...... how the lads did'nt give the game away with all the tittering....you can imagine..

A few days later when the works were complete and of course the handles were all turned to the outside, he came back for final inspection.....well, he caught my eye and sheepishly walked over......uuuuuuu...handles....taking the micky....I just smiled.

Be careful who you give credence to in the trading world, because it's almost certain that the ones who can, talk a good story, are not by any means the ones who can trade well, if at all.

 

[CYOF]

Andy,
You are not forecasting. You are anticipating based upon what you know. Huge difference. In fact anticipation is what markets are really about. Anticipation is taking action before all of the imformation is in and as such it gives you a price risk advantage. Forecasting is not proven until the information comes in by which time you have lost the price risk advantage. hope that explains a little better the point I am making.

I was beginning to think that you are a "chump", but the more you write the less convincing you are becoming

I will only add the following correction:

"You are anticipating based upon what you know (should say "based on what you think you know).

And this is true for all of us - just in case some think this is directed at andycan!