Hi Richard,
It's my third day following the trending trade theories presented in this thread. Appropreiate position sizing and stop losses have kept my losses ticking down at a predictable rate (now -$1500)...
The bit I can not fathom is the entry. The stocks I pick have been trending for at least 4 candles on a 1min chart (not more than 7) clear of any R/S lines. L2 confirms direction and practically the moment I enter the trade starts going against me. The nice regular candles vanish and a candle in the opposite direction appears (usually more than twice the length of any of the previous candles).
I've reached a point where I am thinking of just trading against the way I think price will move as this would result in 95% success. However for each trade I actually enter I paper trade two others which always go as I predicted. I'm not buying enough shares to affect the market so am at a loss to understand my uncanny ability to get it completely wrong with such repetition only for trades I am in. It's not like price fluctuates a little with the trend, the candles literally drive against me with momentum after I'm in.
My last trade was a masterpeice. Entered VMW at 15.04 for 29.44 long. Stopped out at 29.26 and watched the trend continue down for what would have been an steady $1500 profit had I gone short...
Is the ratio of losing to winning trades that high with this method or have I just picked poorly this week?
Thanks,
Paranoid Mark.