How to improve our odds!?

[gracieJJ]

Yes, basically it's a martingale but with an extra touch. See, this strategy has won me 70-80% of my trades but in average binary traders, even this trade ratio does not guarantee a good profit because of how binary brokers work. But with the help of this this strategy it can give huge kickbacks. If you want more info, visit binaryholygrail com

 

[gracieJJ]

and yes, it also has a solid money management method :clap:

 

[sportbilly]

Yes, basically it's a martingale but with an extra touch. See, this strategy has won me 70-80% of my trades but in average binary traders, even this trade ratio does not guarantee a good profit because of how binary brokers work. But with the help of this this strategy it can give huge kickbacks. If you want more info, visit binaryholygrail com

gracieJJ there is quote from reffered webpage "Is $297 too much for your success and financial freedom?" which turn me off. Please save me from discussion how valuable it is because I dont believe it anything to so called gurus. Post trading results by justification of it and we will give you a respect. If you want us to pay something which online for free anyway we dont embrace that idea so please stop it.

The best advice is free advice because it comes from people who actualy earn the money by trading not preaching. I belive my odds are far better off by learning from my mistakes than others. For money required by preacher I can open account with broker and test my discipline in real action. And thats what I going to do. I will open small account with Tradefight (reffered by Sparkness in post 5) and test my skills directly.

 

[sportbilly]

It's easy to make money when you are trading with small amounts and over short time periods. The problem comes when you try to start trading outside of your comfort zone with amounts of money that are 'more meaningful' to you (i.e. the equivalent amount to the monthly rent etc. Consistency is also an issue.

You are right BOP. Humans are emotional and trading decisions biased when bets are getting higher. Trading si very introvert journey and mistakes often happen. If you cant find the couse for mistakes you will start trading out of comfort zone more often just because you will try to recoupe the losses.

 

[gracieJJ]

Well I wasnt insisting for anyone to buy the strategy. People who is looking for a strategy is free to check it out, if you're not up to it, then fine don't it's not my lost anyway for I will not gain anything even if you buy it. I was just SUGGESTING, it has a website and if you are not convinced then fine don't. it's as simple as that. cheers bro!


Plus, I don't believe that you should open an account without having the confidence that you can pull it off. Even a $100 account is too big if you are trading it wrong. If you really want to improve your odds, read read read and trade using DEMO accounts, it is much better that way because you can test what you find out while reading without having to worry about losing money

 

[sportbilly]

@gracieJJ - thanks for explanation.

@sparkness - who won the ticket 4 London Tournament this month, you?

However, let me carry on with thread. How to improve our odds!?

I believe that that most of us fail to set right midnset. We should consider betting as an exercise in probability. Therefore, everyone needs to get familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of their personal betting approach: the market conditions that cause it to win, and the market conditions that cause losses. So when you lost some bets you should take it as statistical fluctuation caused by a period of adverse market conditions. You must trust yourself&betting method applied.

 

[sportbilly]

There is arcticle on T2W landing page - Logic: The Antidote To Emotional Investing, which say:

http://www.trade2win.com/articles/1868-logic-antidote-emotional-investing

"Emotional neutrality is the key. Only invest for coldly rational reasons, and never because other people are buying in droves and making money right now. Heated emotions, euphoria, excitement and similar sentiments are the enemy of prudent and profitable investing. Make sure that you do not get carried away with the crowd. In fact, it is generally best to do the diametrical opposite. When the crowd is cheering, leering and buying, look to sell; when it is moaning, groaning, panicking and selling, it is generally time to make your move".

I fundamently think the same!!! You have to bet against laic public!!! But that create another issue which might decrease your odds - you betting countertrend.

 

[highbury fx]

How to improve our odds!?
In general we are pre programmed to do all of the wrong things, we take excessive risk when we should be conservative (e.g. allowing losses to run), we are conservative when we should take risk (e.g. taking profit rather than letting profits run). Most people fail at most things! But why!? Does stress and greed makes us prone to tunnel vision and less likely to focus on information we need.
The situation is made even worse because different gurus rapes us every day and practically all of the advice available is at best of no value because its context sensitive, advice that may be beneficial in one situation is detrimental in another, and at worst, much of the advice offered or sold is complete nonsense......so.....how to improve our odds!?

I think as humans we try and over complicate strategy to prove to ourselves just how clever we are. We rarely acknowledge the importance of common sense and trusting instinct. As far as trading is concerned the biggest problem I come across is over trading. It's not just about using too much gearing or moving your stops when they're about to be hit or snatching at a profit way too soon because 'no one goes broke booking a profit'. It's not even about trading product you don't understand as most peoples chances of winning are about the same as a coin toss regardless what you trade or what direction you choose. IMHO it is over trading that is the monkey on the back of most 'traders'. If you trade 10 times a day on a 2 point spread you need to book 400 points a month to stand still. Common sense will tell you (or it bloody well should) that that is a rather optimistic target over a long period of time. Its possible to make 400 points a month but that's not the point, you have to make 400 points EVERY month and you have to do it to stay flat.

I know its boring and not glam or what you may consider to be real trading (whatever that is) but there is a lot to be said for the basic common sense stuff of picking a good level for your entry, placing a limit a healthy distance away and a stop loss at a level that isn't going to wipe you out and then walking away from your platform until you get that email that tells you one of your closing orders has been filled.

Take the human need to be proven right out of the equation. Banish the part of your phycology that won't let you leave your stop where it is to be hit. Let it be hit, take the loss. So what, its not personal, you got it wrong and its ok to be wrong, at least you haven't paid 400 points of spread along the way.

It's so much harder to take a profit when the spread is always against you, this is not a 50/50 game as the broker has the spread in his favour. If you put your stop and limit 10 points from your entry on a 2 pip price, the price has to move 12 points your favour for your profit to be booked but only 8 points against you for your stop to be hit. Consider this, consider the obvious - the spread is your cost, reduce your number of deals and you reduce your costs significantly.

 

[sportbilly]

I think as humans we try and over complicate strategy to prove to ourselves just how clever we are. We rarely acknowledge the importance of common sense and trusting instinct. As far as trading is concerned the biggest problem I come across is over trading. It's not just about using too much gearing or moving your stops when they're about to be hit or snatching at a profit way too soon because 'no one goes broke booking a profit'. It's not even about trading product you don't understand as most peoples chances of winning are about the same as a coin toss regardless what you trade or what direction you choose. IMHO it is over trading that is the monkey on the back of most 'traders'. If you trade 10 times a day on a 2 point spread you need to book 400 points a month to stand still. Common sense will tell you (or it bloody well should) that that is a rather optimistic target over a long period of time. Its possible to make 400 points a month but that's not the point, you have to make 400 points EVERY month and you have to do it to stay flat.

I know its boring and not glam or what you may consider to be real trading (whatever that is) but there is a lot to be said for the basic common sense stuff of picking a good level for your entry, placing a limit a healthy distance away and a stop loss at a level that isn't going to wipe you out and then walking away from your platform until you get that email that tells you one of your closing orders has been filled.

Take the human need to be proven right out of the equation. Banish the part of your phycology that won't let you leave your stop where it is to be hit. Let it be hit, take the loss. So what, its not personal, you got it wrong and its ok to be wrong, at least you haven't paid 400 points of spread along the way.

It's so much harder to take a profit when the spread is always against you, this is not a 50/50 game as the broker has the spread in his favour. If you put your stop and limit 10 points from your entry on a 2 pip price, the price has to move 12 points your favour for your profit to be booked but only 8 points against you for your stop to be hit. Consider this, consider the obvious - the spread is your cost, reduce your number of deals and you reduce your costs significantly.

Thats very good point - overtrading is a killer! When you achieve trading discipline and you aknowledge that market moves are impacted by market liquidity your odds increase substantionally.

 

[sportbilly]

Most people go down the indicator road. I think indicators are waste of time. One week you adding one and then deleting it after a little bit testing. Than adding another one and so on........The fact is that indicators lag and they all will give you conflicting info. If you really want to confuse yourself throw up a bunch of indicators and then use multiple timeframes.

 

[sportbilly]

Sorri 4 being un-active I have been busy testing the trade game recommended in one of the early posts. This game feature some social trading which made me think about financial market dynamics and market micro structure.

If this trading game give me opportunity to behave as a broker and capitalize mistakes of my opponent why on hell we all aspect from brokers to be our friends. Look the social information which they have in real time when their clients place their trades/bets.

Let me slow down a bit and direct you toward picture enclosed. It shows, the fight between me and opponent at the time where I follow the opponent activity in real time. He has open two trades gbpusd (+75) & eurjpy (-40) and I am about to exploit and take advantage of his eurjpy trade. Only what I have to do is replicate the mistake he/she has made with eurjpy and I will have advantage of 40units regardless what happen the next.

By replicate his/her mistake I achieve one of the following:

a) I gain points if trade replicated goes my way and opponent comes to break-even (result - I have 40 units more than opponent)

b) I loose point if replicated trade go against me but my opponent will loose 40units more so I really dont need to care any more.

c) I dont gain anything because my opponent recognised my intention, either a) or b) and forced him/her to accept the losses instantly.

Easy!!! And I won!!

Can you see the impact of social information. Can you recognize how powerful some participants who create the market are because of social information they have? They follow the huge volume of market activity at real time with same aim that I demonstrated above at a), b) and c) just to capitalize mistakes of their opponents. And the statistics, and zero sum game, and many more................think, is broker your friend!!??

I go now, said enough for today. Now is your time to express yourself!!

regards
SB

 

[NVP]

How to improve our odds!?
In general we are pre programmed to do all of the wrong things, we take excessive risk when we should be conservative (e.g. allowing losses to run), we are conservative when we should take risk (e.g. taking profit rather than letting profits run). Most people fail at most things! But why!? Does stress and greed makes us prone to tunnel vision and less likely to focus on information we need.
The situation is made even worse because different gurus rapes us every day and practically all of the advice available is at best of no value because its context sensitive, advice that may be beneficial in one situation is detrimental in another, and at worst, much of the advice offered or sold is complete nonsense......so.....how to improve our odds!?

we are programmed from caveman times ...........we cant stop ourselves ................but we can try to overide the emotions with experience

N

 

[sportbilly]

As humans we over complicate strategy so dont use many indicators, because they are a waste of time.
Focuses on your simple strategy and learn how each asset to suit her

Agree with you 100%. Widely popular Indicators In game theory and economic theory, cant work in zero sum game situation in which a participant's gain of utility is exactly balanced by the losses of the utility of the other participant.

 

[Pat494]

1.Always bet within one's budget so a loss of say 1% is of little consequence imho
That gets rid of the FEAR actions of jumping out too soon or too late.
2. never set a set stop loss unless you are away from the screen but pick a level of movement and re-asses your position when it is reached. Maybe you need to close out because it is looking really bad. MAYBE JUST INCREASE YOUR STAKE A LITTLE - IF IT IS STILL LOOKING NOT TOO BAD OR IF IT IS LOOKING EVEN BETTER CONSIDER INCREASING STAKE. PAST EFFORTS WILL TELL YOU THE ANSWERS. IF YOU KEEP LOSING THEN STOP AND PAPER TRADE ON A DEMO ACCOUNT - THEY ARE FOR FREE.

 

[Pat494]

Be nimble in your actions and chase profits.
The plodders use fixed stop loss and target prices. Never achieve much being slow and lazy in any human endeavour.

 

[sportbilly]

Have anyone tried Bollinger band binary option strategy??

 

[sportbilly]

Have anyone tried Bollinger band binary option strategy??

Last week I were short EURJPY where bollinger band was broken downwards and now I have got mixed results on 30sec expiry option despite eurjpy were heading south. Will test some more.

 

[sportbilly]

"The human brain has a peculiar way of rationalizing everything and filtering out unpleasant realities that it knows to be true."
- Peter Troob

 

[sportbilly]

"It is often said that: “is wise he who can see things coming.” perhaps the wise one is the one who knows that he cannot see things far away."
-Nassim Nicholas Taleb

 

[ffsear]

Getting hold of your emotions is important when wanting to improve your odds.

Fear, Greed, lack of Confidence, Over confidence, Anger, Impulsiveness and many more. Find out which ones are your achilles heal and deal with them. Sadly I have found that it takes money to work out which emotions affect you and which ones you need to control. Demo trading simply won't help.

Losing real money thought me more then any book possibly could.