How Much Do You Make?

[jls483]

ok - sharky whatever you think best. I only mentioned the c****e just for humour value and put the price in to make it seem more real, but I can clearly see I have done wrong.

I think trade2win is an excellent site and has every right to make as money as is sensible from advertising.

Just out if interest if I did want to flog a c****e - could that be done on The Classifieds forum or is that restricted to books, software and hardware?

Thanks,

John.

 

[Mr. Charts]

In the interests of genuine competition, may I please offer a large bottle of aspirin and a Tesco Value One Litre Vodka guaranteed to induce a quick and easy suicide for only £344.
It is also slightly faster acting than the Suicide Trading Course and requires no initial capital investment, thereby guaranteeing your loved ones something to remember you by.
All in all a better product.
Instructions for use available for an additional 99p
Cash only please.

 

[Sharky]

Hi John,

I don't mean to be heavy handed, but we have to be sensitive to the fact that as the site grows it also increasingly attracts people keen to exploit its audience - and clearly nobody wants that.

We do have advertising on the site, - you can see the banners running along the header, and we do occassionally send out partner offer emails. As long as I can see there is some value to the product or service being offered, then I'm happy to run it.

Plans are already a foot for a virtual martketplace to allow suitable products and services to be presented in an orderly way that will be accessible for those members who are interested in reading about them.

As for the classifieds boards this is simply intended to be used to buy/sell personal goods and for members to highlight products or services where it is not in their own interest.

The approach we take is the common sense one, and at the end of the day is there to ensure this remains a great community!

Sharky.

 

[jls483]

Sharky,

I didn't think you were heavy handed.

I think I should also admit that I don't have a course and have never given a course on SuicideTrading. It was a poor attempt at humour. But I do reserve the right to give a course in the future!

I did mean it when I said I would give a course - but if somebody wanted to give you £365 for a days course - wouldn't you take it?

Anyway - I can't stand long threads and I think this one is already a couple of pages too long. Let's call it a day and I'll think a little harder before starting any more threads (or offering to give courses!)

John.

 

[DanielLambert]

I agree with Trader Pattern!!!

jls483 is making totally worthless comments...

I will wait for the barrage against me now! but it had to be said

 

[Mr. Charts]

Hey Daniel Lambert,
I'm in Weybridge too. Privmail me if you want.

483 - As for "but if somebody wanted to give you £365 for a days course - wouldn't you take it?"
Answer - absolutely not!
Why should I coach someone for less than I make on an average day's trading?
Anyway, 483, don't take criticism to heart, weigh it and look again at your "system". There are a few good people here, listen to them and learn.
Perhaps consider that the psychological damage you would sustain, as well as the financial losses, in the huge drawdowns inherent in your "system" would indeed induce self destructive feelings. Of course, none of this applies if you are trading tiny insignificant amounts or have huge reserves of cash.
Also look at probability and game theory, Sharpe ratios, equity curves etc if you are mathematically minded.
And remember practice and substantial money loss are very different to theory and playing with small amounts.
I can see you do have potential, but may I say that in my humble opinion you need to be more open minded to the views of real experienced traders. And take what I said seriously about getting yourself a proper options education, with your type of mind you'll eventually make consistent money with minimum screen watching, PROVIDED you get good at options. You'll enjoy the maths too.
I shan't wish you luck as that rarely comes in to trading, but I do wish you good probability.

 

[jls483]

Thanks for the good advice Mr Charts. I certainly am open minded to improving and looking forward to learning more about options.
(I think I am more open minded than many have been to me).

Of course I was expecting a turnout of 30, when I said £345.

You make it sound as if my system makes only insignificant returns. I'm already making consistent money with minimum screen watching. It actually make surprisingly good returns. Maybe not as good as yours - but still very healthy.

 

[ChartMan]

Making money with minimum screen watching is some people's Holy Grail. Keep at it if that's your cup of tea.

 

[Dr Mike]

jls

I have now had the opportunity of understanding your system more carefully. As I understand it you spreadbet the FTSE index - you never take losses but take profits when they are available.

The worst that can happen to you is something like this:-
You buy the FTSE @ £10 a point at 4000 (Hopefully Saddam wiill throw in the towel shortly after)

Due to civilian casualties/ saddam turns bagdad into stalingrad/ US realise their stock market is horrendously overvalued etc.
The Dow drops - the FTSE, as always, follows it down

The FTSE drops and doesn't come back above your purchase position - It eventually bottoms at 2,000 and doesn't recover for several years.

You borrow £x,ooo at 10% per annum to fund the losses and in addition have to pay interest to the spreadbetting company on the position, or roll over margins etc.

If you are able to fund it yourself then you are in a similar position to having invested in an index tracker and watched it slowly but surely go down the pan. Plus some additional cost on top.

So it's not quite as bad as I first thought but by no stretch of the imagination is it infallible.
Look at a chart of the FTSE and assume you had bought on the 28th May 2002 at 5136* - when would you have taken profit?

And when do you think that the FTSE will get back to that 5136?
I personally think it'll be some time but I freely admit that my guess is no better than anyone elses.

Good Luck,


5136* is probably the worst case but there is quite a window of opportunity around that date for you to have bought and never had an opportunity to get out except at a loss.

 

[jls483]

Dr Mike,

As I have said before my system only works really well at the moment with the FTSE so low already. By the time it climbs back up to to 5000 or 6000 I either hope to have enough money not to care or be able to cope with the double digit returns that I will be reduced to.

But I think I have a year or two to devise the next system possibly using some day trading skills.

Don't forget I don't just blow £10 a point at 4000 and wait a year or two. I invest smaller amounts and always keep some money back so that I can keep trading and making profits whatever the current level of the FTSE is. It is this constant making of profits whenever the FTSE rises a little that slowly builds up and outweighs any downward trends or makes a tidy packet if and when the FTSE comes back to where it started.

John.

 

[gpegler]

I think svengali's previous reply with the worked example shows the weakness of this 'system'. You will always be better off cutting losses quickly. It strikes me that this method involves tying up a large amount of money in comparison to any potential profit, which may take months to materialize if at all.

Are you seriously saying that you bought the FTSE at 4000 and sat and watched it drop 600-700 points without getting out? When are you going to cash in the 4000 trade? At 4010?, 4100?, 5000?

Surely just but cutting losses early and letting any successful trades run you would have the basis for a much better system?

It just isn't 'Trading' is it? It's 'Buy and Hold' with spreadbets. Isn't there also a charge imposed by the spreadbetting firm for keeping spreadbets open for long periods?

I think Trader Pattern and Daniel Lambert are correct.

Gary

 

[jls483]

Gary,

If you think it pathetic - stop asking questions! Stick to what you are already so successful with. It produces great returns for me. I am not trying to persuade anbody else to use it - particularly if they are succesful at day trading. The point of this thread was to get a general overview of the sort of trading done by people on trade2win and the risks and the returns that could be associated with that sort of trading.

This has not happened, this thread has gone nowhere and I am going to try really hard not to respond to any more questions so we can all concentrate on more interesting threads.

If you do want to know more send me a PM. If my projected returns work out - I'll write a book, setup a course and advertise it on t2w. If something goes badly wrong I'll send you all a PM and admit I made a mistake.

P.S. Yes I did buy some contracts at 4000 which I held all the way
down to 3270 and back again. Not a lot but a few. It didn't cost much and I am well into profit from all the other contracts I have bought and sold on the rollercoaster ride we have had since then.

All the best,

John.

 

[gpegler]

I only asked one question and you very kindly answered ...

"Yes I did buy some contracts at 4000 which I held all the way
down to 3270"

Good luck with the book.

Gary

 

[Bigbusiness]

jls,

I have been trying to think of the best example to show how your system can go wrong. Then it suddenly occurred to me where I had read about a trader doing something similar.

It was Nick Leeson. He started off using an arbitrage system but when errors were made he started using a system similar to yours. He thought the Nikkei had fallen too far and was going to rebound and that he would get back his losses. He carried on buying as it went down but it never did rebound and it all went wrong (slight understatement there!).

If you are interested, there is an article here (PDF file).

http://www.stern.nyu.edu/fin/workpapers/papers00/wpa00058.pdf

While your system can lead to big profits, there is also a chance of loosing everything. It might not seem likely but it does happen.

 

[jls483]

Aaarrrgghhh - I didn't last long ignoring the questions!!

I have read Nick Leesons it book and it is in excellent.
Sure if you hold on to too many contracts you can crash and burn. But it is not too difficult to work out how much cash you need to cover a specific fall. All you must do then is not get too greedy. I've got enough cash in active service to cope with falls to about 3000. If it falls further then I just have to liquidate some of my other assets.

If it fell montonically (without any rebounds) to 2000 - I would be in trouble. But that is something I am gambling won't happen. If you were the sort of person who was worried about that you would just use slightly less contracts than I am using and get slightly smaller returns. You are in full control of the risk and the return.

Between you and me I have experimented with reasonable success in shorting the market in what I thought were sustainable falls and so reducing my exposure. I'd then buy back in the same amount when it came up again, but it was very difficult to catch a long term fall. I would normally find myself buying back an hour or two later. (I'd also take a few pounds profit of course). But the end result was I still had the same number of contracts and I had exposed myself to the risk of the shorting going wrong.

This is what I meant by there being no middle ground as soon as you start trying to cut your losses, you end up with the lottery of day trading. You win some, you lose some. I say lottery because that is what is is to the unqualified.

So for the moment, I'm sticking with the basic system and looking to learn about proper trading as quickly as possible.

John.

 

[jls483]

BigBusiness.

Thanks for the interesting link on Leeson.

I should say that I am not running a doubling strategy. That is just like roulette and costs do quickly spiral out of control.

I'm not trying to go into profit on the next upswing. I am a lot more patient than that.

John.

 

[Mr. Charts]

"looking to learn about proper trading as quickly as possible."

Very wise.

 

[FTSE Beater]

I shan't wish you luck as that rarely comes in to trading, but I do wish you good probability.

Mr Charts

I think that's the best trading statement I have read in a long time

 

[ColinRiche]

I have just come across this thread....

I know where this guys coming from.... i bought the FTSE100
at 6250 6200 6150 6100 6050 and 6000 the rest is history.

So i can relate to what his talking about.

The guys name is John and he ends up talking about courses.

This wouldn't be John B we admire so much under a different name would it.

Or maybe this guys been on one of John B's courses

They also live in the same part of the country.

Or maybe there related - i wonder

 

[jls483]

Colin,

I am not John B. I have never been on a course and have never given a course. Although my trading is going extremely well and so I can't guarantee I will never give a course.

I can see how you got into trouble. If you tried to use such a scheme from the top of a bubble you would firstly need to invest in a tiny amount to avoid going bankrupt and secondly have to wait an awfully long time for your on-going profits to overtake you falls in capital. It is not a good idea.

I can't remember how much I gave away in the thread, but I only started the scheme with the FTSE below 4500. I developed the system for a market that is predominately sideways moving and volatile - which seems to have been the case. If conditions change I will have to learn and adapt.

In fact, since this thread, my strategies have been developed almost beyond recognition and I now have a trading strategy based on the original idea that I believe will work well in all conditions.

My ideas seemed to raise a lot of misbelief and abuse, but it hasn't bothered me too much as the most important factor (a steadily increasing balance in the account) has justified my methods. I'll let you know if I ever get around to writing the book - Suicide Trading is still a very tempting title!

Happy trading.

John S.