B
Black Swan
Firstly, I "aim" for 25% return a month on my accounts, hasn't happened for first 2 months of this year 12% + 15%, March OK so far...
I don't use EAs on MT, still something I'd love to/need to look into, plenty of help from brokers such as FXCM in setting them up/making them work, also on the MQL4 forum, forex-tsd, fx fisherman etc.. you can dig out some top guys for help...My problem is I doubt if there's a programme/r that could automate trades across my seven pairs, I could perm it down to 4 (perhaps 5) that would still have the right correlation, entries would be easy enough, just not sure of the exits which I don't reckon there's a auto way of over riding my manual discretion...even using fibs/ trailing stop loss (spit) etc...
However, all things considered there's loads of good free to air shared files on the afore mentioned forums where you can get simple strats to plug into the back end of MT that' ll work great on a couple of pairs...have a look yourself, ask some questions, make some contacts..
Vaco
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Black swan has answered pretty much as I would, I dont have the know how to set up EA's and would have the same problem as my exits are also discretionary.
heres a hint though, someone enters the market at every single price point, the key to profit is where you exit so thats where you should focus your energy.
All good entries have a life span before they turn bad, how long that is depends on how close you place your stop.
On the other hand where you exit your trades will directly impact your p&l.
heres a hint though, someone enters the market at every single price point, the key to profit is where you exit so thats where you should focus your energy.
All good entries have a life span before they turn bad, how long that is depends on how close you place your stop.
On the other hand where you exit your trades will directly impact your p&l.
Thanks Vaco, lbrandjord, and all for giving your input on both targeted returns and actual results. I am a fundamental trader and occasionally get those huge returns for a certain month but I wouldn't say those returns are the rule because I keep my leverage very low. Also I limit my use of patterns by understanding how the market works, which is more likely to brave the test of time (in my opinion)
I have two questions for Vaco and others who have reported what I consider to be high monthly returns (>5% per month): 1) How frequent are these trades (if trades are placed in quick succession to one another it's almost like doubling the leverage- ask if this is not clear) 2) Are the monthly returns consistent?
Thanks for your continued input. I think this clarification will help me and others understand the whole picture of returns rather than just the amount won.
Kris
I have two questions for Vaco and others who have reported what I consider to be high monthly returns (>5% per month): 1) How frequent are these trades (if trades are placed in quick succession to one another it's almost like doubling the leverage- ask if this is not clear) 2) Are the monthly returns consistent?
Thanks for your continued input. I think this clarification will help me and others understand the whole picture of returns rather than just the amount won.
Kris
Vaco
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fxmonk,
1. i average 3-5 trades a day and my ave rage hold time is about 1.5 hours although this figure is decieving as i'm out of losers within 5-10 mins and i can hold on to a winner for 2h+
sometimes trades are placed in quick succession when there is a spike that takes out my stop but then retraces and the setup is still valid.
2.ask me again in six months as I am only just starting to be consistantly profitable.
however i am aware of other traders who target much more then 10% a week and consider 5% to be a bad week.
The figures are not that huge if you break it down.
if your ave stop is 20 pips and this represents 1% of your trading capital then you only need 100 pips a week to make 5% and hit your 20% target for the month.
I am confident my setups can deliver on those figures, and when I do not the fault is wih me not the setup.
eg- taking unplanned trades (my biggest issue) including revenge trading and feeling left behind. allowing fear or greed to effect my actions around exits, trading when over tired/sick/stressed.
I hope the above helps.
Vaco
1. i average 3-5 trades a day and my ave rage hold time is about 1.5 hours although this figure is decieving as i'm out of losers within 5-10 mins and i can hold on to a winner for 2h+
sometimes trades are placed in quick succession when there is a spike that takes out my stop but then retraces and the setup is still valid.
2.ask me again in six months as I am only just starting to be consistantly profitable.
however i am aware of other traders who target much more then 10% a week and consider 5% to be a bad week.
The figures are not that huge if you break it down.
if your ave stop is 20 pips and this represents 1% of your trading capital then you only need 100 pips a week to make 5% and hit your 20% target for the month.
I am confident my setups can deliver on those figures, and when I do not the fault is wih me not the setup.
eg- taking unplanned trades (my biggest issue) including revenge trading and feeling left behind. allowing fear or greed to effect my actions around exits, trading when over tired/sick/stressed.
I hope the above helps.
Vaco
NVP
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Hi all
interesting discussion......last time I looked the mathematical equation was relatively simple and used by every marketeer to convince newbie traders how they can move from a $5000 bank to a million pot in some ludicrously short timescale :whistling
they use the miracle of compounded growth as well - gradually increasing your lot size as the bank grows......so that the assumed average return per trade drive the bank value up exponentially
so the answer will always be based around number of trades (as we all use different timeframes)..........then its just the risk/return ratios per trade.......theoretially all roads lead to rome.......a higher probability/lower return strategy will get there the same time as a similarly robust and researched but lower prob/higher return approach........then its down to the mindset of the Trader and their handlng of the system..................humans are not designed to follow simple (boring,monotonous) rules so that always plays a factor.....Then there are EA's that should operate like automated robots delivering our returns effortlessly.......(spare me
)
just ensuring the pot stays positive is a target for most traders......
NVP
interesting discussion......last time I looked the mathematical equation was relatively simple and used by every marketeer to convince newbie traders how they can move from a $5000 bank to a million pot in some ludicrously short timescale :whistling
they use the miracle of compounded growth as well - gradually increasing your lot size as the bank grows......so that the assumed average return per trade drive the bank value up exponentially
so the answer will always be based around number of trades (as we all use different timeframes)..........then its just the risk/return ratios per trade.......theoretially all roads lead to rome.......a higher probability/lower return strategy will get there the same time as a similarly robust and researched but lower prob/higher return approach........then its down to the mindset of the Trader and their handlng of the system..................humans are not designed to follow simple (boring,monotonous) rules so that always plays a factor.....Then there are EA's that should operate like automated robots delivering our returns effortlessly.......(spare me
)just ensuring the pot stays positive is a target for most traders......
NVP
pseudo straddle
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lbranjord
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Re: How long do you take to lose half your account?
Maybe for most. It depends on the system. I trade so that I will not lose many consecutive and so that it is as smooth of an increase as possible. I miss out on pips this way, but overall, I don't take those huge "go hang yourself" type of drawdowns.
After backtesting my system 2 years, if I see any month end in -100 pips or more, I throw it away. My current system had a record setting month of -50 pips, but the rest were all 100-700 pips.
Try to create a system that doesn't sustain these losses, and that has concrete entry and exits (possibly even defined on position open). Even if you only get 5-10 pips a day, you'll be better off in my opinion.
Maybe for most. It depends on the system. I trade so that I will not lose many consecutive and so that it is as smooth of an increase as possible. I miss out on pips this way, but overall, I don't take those huge "go hang yourself" type of drawdowns.
After backtesting my system 2 years, if I see any month end in -100 pips or more, I throw it away. My current system had a record setting month of -50 pips, but the rest were all 100-700 pips.
Try to create a system that doesn't sustain these losses, and that has concrete entry and exits (possibly even defined on position open). Even if you only get 5-10 pips a day, you'll be better off in my opinion.
Re: How long do you take to lose half your account?
Good Morning, All.
I think people who talk in terms of x% per day and xx% per week/month are all way off the mark. 4 to 15% per month is "do-able" but not on a clockwork-basis. Can double an A/C in a year, I should say ! But no EA will do it for you - FXCM is not about to commit harakiri !
Good Luck to all but don't overplay your hand !
Good Morning, All.
I think people who talk in terms of x% per day and xx% per week/month are all way off the mark. 4 to 15% per month is "do-able" but not on a clockwork-basis. Can double an A/C in a year, I should say ! But no EA will do it for you - FXCM is not about to commit harakiri !
Good Luck to all but don't overplay your hand !
lbranjord
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Re: How long do you take to lose half your account?
Gotta thank you for weighing in, first of all...but I would have to say it is possible to plan for a certain percentage per month. This has to be average percent per month, but it can be done.
There are obviously the bad months, but a good system will throw few signals during range or volitility and many during trend, therefor you won't get hit as hard when the 'March from hell 2009' comes around. (all my systems have a bad month when tested through March 09).
I think any perc per day/week/month has to be an average. Not a concrete figure.
Finally, 4-15% per month? If I only made 4% in a month it would probably be hard for me to reach my goals. Perhaps you are trading with a larger capital, in that case I could see that being a safe and sustainable route.
For my situation: 15% weak month, 25% average month, 50% good month, 100% Great month
Gotta thank you for weighing in, first of all...but I would have to say it is possible to plan for a certain percentage per month. This has to be average percent per month, but it can be done.
There are obviously the bad months, but a good system will throw few signals during range or volitility and many during trend, therefor you won't get hit as hard when the 'March from hell 2009' comes around. (all my systems have a bad month when tested through March 09).
I think any perc per day/week/month has to be an average. Not a concrete figure.
Finally, 4-15% per month? If I only made 4% in a month it would probably be hard for me to reach my goals. Perhaps you are trading with a larger capital, in that case I could see that being a safe and sustainable route.
For my situation: 15% weak month, 25% average month, 50% good month, 100% Great month
Re: How long do you take to lose half your account?
You must be seriously over-leveraged to be achieving 25%+ regularly a month. 50%+ on month figures can be made in one off type events such as Lehmans, 87 crash, Hurricane Katrina, but to be aiming for these returns infinitely increases the chance of ruin.
You must be seriously over-leveraged to be achieving 25%+ regularly a month. 50%+ on month figures can be made in one off type events such as Lehmans, 87 crash, Hurricane Katrina, but to be aiming for these returns infinitely increases the chance of ruin.
Re: How long do you take to lose half your account?
Well, you are right - I do trade larger. At one time. I too made 50% per month for 2 consecutive months but then had to sleep it off for 2 weeks...broken body (not head) !
But Man, may be I would like to learn your system just so as to be able to make up for "bad times" now and then. My system requires watching the screen with eyes peeled wide watching for signals, so it is tough on ennergy. What do you use ?
Wish you Best Luck Man but keep a good watch so as not to lose it on a bad run ! Good Luck.
Well, you are right - I do trade larger. At one time. I too made 50% per month for 2 consecutive months but then had to sleep it off for 2 weeks...broken body (not head) !
But Man, may be I would like to learn your system just so as to be able to make up for "bad times" now and then. My system requires watching the screen with eyes peeled wide watching for signals, so it is tough on ennergy. What do you use ?
Wish you Best Luck Man but keep a good watch so as not to lose it on a bad run ! Good Luck.
lbranjord
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Re: How long do you take to lose half your account?
I am at 1:20 leverage and only have one opportunity to trade per day, on one pair, if the signal is there. Usually end up entering a trade every other day or so. I assess my compounding everyday as my balance changes, although I used to only do so monthly.
As for the fundamentals of how i trade...basically when my setup appears I place a trade/stop/target (there is a maximum distance of i'll allow this to be, based on the swing) and I place my target at double the stop loss distance with minor adjustments to S/R levels.
I understand that there is significant risk involved in 1:20 leverage and the lot size I trade, but I can survive the drawdown of a ten day losing streak with the maximum stop loss and I have never seen more than a 4 day losing streak in live or backtesting 2008-2010. Also, I only plan on trading this way until I reach my goal (a certain amount of capital I will not divulge). After that, I'm going to chop my lots in half and I'll be comfortable with a smaller percentage.
For the sake of arguement, please assume that my system is as solid as I say and just try to poke holes in my MM. That's what this is really about I think. I don't want it to turn into one of those threads where everyone trys to cut down eachother's work.
I respect all your opinions and appreciate any constructive crit you have! I don't want to lose all my money after all!
I am at 1:20 leverage and only have one opportunity to trade per day, on one pair, if the signal is there. Usually end up entering a trade every other day or so. I assess my compounding everyday as my balance changes, although I used to only do so monthly.
As for the fundamentals of how i trade...basically when my setup appears I place a trade/stop/target (there is a maximum distance of i'll allow this to be, based on the swing) and I place my target at double the stop loss distance with minor adjustments to S/R levels.
I understand that there is significant risk involved in 1:20 leverage and the lot size I trade, but I can survive the drawdown of a ten day losing streak with the maximum stop loss and I have never seen more than a 4 day losing streak in live or backtesting 2008-2010. Also, I only plan on trading this way until I reach my goal (a certain amount of capital I will not divulge). After that, I'm going to chop my lots in half and I'll be comfortable with a smaller percentage.
For the sake of arguement, please assume that my system is as solid as I say and just try to poke holes in my MM. That's what this is really about I think. I don't want it to turn into one of those threads where everyone trys to cut down eachother's work.
I respect all your opinions and appreciate any constructive crit you have! I don't want to lose all my money after all!
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SvenFoster
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as said before you cannot predict your monthly returns etc but given enough historical information you should be able to decide the pace at which you ride.
If you know that you trade twice a day and no more, then its basically down to how much are you prepared to lose in a day(week, 3days, whatever..), for me its one number for someone else its a different number.
Divide the number by the number of trades you'll take and you'll have a reasonable est of what you could risk on a trade. simples...
2% risk a day, 2 trades = 1% risk..
or 5% risk a week, 1 trade a week = 5% risk a trade.
no matter. Choose your risk profile then the rest will fall out before your very eyes.
the rest about, how quick to make a million etc is all hopes and hopes dont compound like consistant returns.
If you know that you trade twice a day and no more, then its basically down to how much are you prepared to lose in a day(week, 3days, whatever..), for me its one number for someone else its a different number.
Divide the number by the number of trades you'll take and you'll have a reasonable est of what you could risk on a trade. simples...
2% risk a day, 2 trades = 1% risk..
or 5% risk a week, 1 trade a week = 5% risk a trade.
no matter. Choose your risk profile then the rest will fall out before your very eyes.
the rest about, how quick to make a million etc is all hopes and hopes dont compound like consistant returns.
TraderNumber7
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You did not specify whether or not the Trader uses a Technical Trading System or not. Most Technical Traders will tell you that they run through many versions of the same system until the finally settle down with the "best in class." Therefore, Technical Traders (the successful types) might have doubled their account multiple times, but with multiple versions of their system.
This opens up a can of worms for me, personally - as I have doubled my account with ever single system I have used since the 4th Generation of the code. I am currently on the 7th Generation today. So, I have doubled my account on at least 4 different occasions, with just version shifts alone - but I have not been able to trade every single day AND I made the switch to a Swing Trade Profile in 2008, which reduced the growth rate in terms of time to double, but not percent to double.
So, the question is a bit underdeveloped. There are a lot of variables that Technical Traders deal with with it comes to time-to-double, merely because of the version changes.
Right now, I'm on track for a 10 Trade Cycle to Double. But, that is Model, which means an accuracy rate of 100%. My last time-to-double took 11 trade cycles - they were all Swing Profiles (approximately 1 week). So, that is approximately 21% of one year, or roughly 2.56 months. But, that won't be the case every single cycle as Targets don't get filled at 100%. Sometimes, the trade ends with partial target fills and that extends the time-to-double cycle. Occasionally, the trade gets stopped out and that extends the time-to-double cycle. Occasionally, I have other things to do and don't enter a profile that week and that extends the cycle. Holidays, powerhouse news that I don't want to mess with, etc. There are several things that will extend the time-to-double cycle.
I started with about $9,000 more than 7 years ago and progressed through multiple versions of the same system to the current 7th Generation. I finally exceeded the $20MM account balance level last month, but the run-up to that came with many weeks off to deal with personal family matters. I also used to be a Day Trader, turning capital over each 24 hour period. My targets have changed over the years as well and my break-even rate has changed over the years - as well as partial target fills without being stopped - all of these things have changed over the years.
So, again, the question needs some tweaking. Or, at least, the answers need to be understood in the light of what happens out here in the real world - we don't always get to trade when we want to, or like to.
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