How do you recover from a £25,000 loss....

[new_trader]

Still, as you say, it makes one think. Are we sure that technology isn't getting so good that we are being individually watched? How do we know that someone else was not stopped out at a different level to us and that we are not picked off, one by one?

I'm getting paranoid.

In the very early days I wrote a simple program so I could practice trading with historical data as if it were live. My stops kept getting hit in the same way as they did in the real 'live' market...I found that uncanny...I kept asking myself "How do they know what I'm doing!?":idea:

 

[mrfigure]

Brettus thanks for highlighting yourself as one to ignore, its much appreciated.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

mrfigure, how old are you ? I didn't think your were that young before. Given your responses, now I am not sure.

 

[mrfigure]

Haha.....even tho im new to this site, threads are threads and when the likes of you and a couple of others begin to post comments that contribute zero to the discussion, thats when you know the thread has run its course. Im not responding to you amongst a couple of others any more. God how boring !

 

[DionysusToast]

Still, as you say, it makes one think. Are we sure that technology isn't getting so good that we are being individually watched? How do we know that someone else was not stopped out at a different level to us and that we are not picked off, one by one?

I'm getting paranoid.

Nope.

Do you know how many contracts they have to chew through on the ES to get to my stop?

Let's say we are 8 ticks from a 3 contract stop. That's 8 x $12.50 x 3 up for grabs = $300.

Now - let's pick an average of 400 contracts to chew through each level on the way down - so about 3,200 contracts traded to get to my stop.

You get low ticked because of the same reason people think the markets bounced off a moving average. It's not personal, it's coincidence and it's a memorable event.

 

[DionysusToast]

Yes, you are being watched. All asses hung out in the open are watched with great interest. The only defense you have is not to hang yourself out for a rape. Firstly you don't attract attention. Secondly they don't know for sure at what point you would fold. They have to work harder that way. Nevertheless, they know your position at all times. So they can pile on the pressure to see if they flush you out.

Who is this "they" you are referring to and what direct knowledge do you have of "their" actions?

There are positions all over the place, there are ALWAYS stops above and below. Some get hit and some don't.

The fact is that at certain points in time, it becomes obvious that pools of liquidity are being created. Pools of liquidity do not exist at lines of support & resistance, they hang in places where no method of textbook TA would give you an entry point. It takes a little lateral thinking to understand why pools of liquidity are created below and why they are created above.

When you understand where people got in and you understand what makes people puke and their general tolerance for pain, then you know where the liquidity pools are. The markets often move towards the liquidity. If there is an area below where lots of longs will simultaneously puke (by selling), then what this means is that there is an area where a buyer can buy contracts at a lower price.

What better for someone that wants to make money going long than cheap contracts? In fact - if there are sellers below - why on earth buy at higher prices right now? Not only does that liquidity attract buyers at the lower prices, it puts them off at the higher prices. So - if I know liquidity is there at 1124.75 and we are now at 1129.50 - I may just hold off buying for now with the aim of getting in around 1124.75. Would you buy a car for $20k today if you knew there was a 50/50 chance you could buy it for $15k tomorrow?

Now - if you know where the liquidity is below and you know that area is an attractive area for people to buy, you don't need a lot of lateral thinking to understand what will follow the probe into the liquidity area.

This is what is happening here, it's not a guy with a supercomputer who knows where every trader is, it's just that people behave in a certain way and it creates liquidity which is probed and then reverses.

 

[Shanghai]

It baffles me that people can't even comprehend that it is the market that hunts out stops. I guess that blaming the SB companies makes it easier to accept somehow. The market is just a big machine that goes around hoovering up orders and if a lot of stop orders are placed in the same area then they should all expect to be stopped out by a few ticks with prices then reversing back to continue the trend. The ratio of complaints about SB companies hunting out stops compared to actual evidence that the prices did not actually reflect the actual market is very high.

My entire strategy is based on prices spiking down to area where lots of stops will be and then reversing, at which point I enter, leaving a lot of angry traders in my wake complaining about their SB company.

 

[DionysusToast]

My entire strategy is based on prices spiking down to area where lots of stops will be and then reversing, at which point I enter, leaving a lot of angry traders in my wake complaining about their SB company.

This takes big cojones.

Effectively buying into a sell off when there's no 'TA anchor' off which to trade.

My hat off to you, sir! :smart:

 

[Splitlink]

Nope.

Do you know how many contracts they have to chew through on the ES to get to my stop?

Let's say we are 8 ticks from a 3 contract stop. That's 8 x $12.50 x 3 up for grabs = $300.

Now - let's pick an average of 400 contracts to chew through each level on the way down - so about 3,200 contracts traded to get to my stop.

You get low ticked because of the same reason people think the markets bounced off a moving average. It's not personal, it's coincidence and it's a memorable event.

No, I suppose that you are right. I admit that I have, quite often, watched my price get to within a half point and it has reversed and I have been saved. The thing is, I suppose, that I put my stop in the dangerous zone, just like everyone else.

 

[Shanghai]

This takes big cojones.

Effectively buying into a sell off when there's no 'TA anchor' off which to trade.

My hat off to you, sir! :smart:

No, I'm much more timid than that. The key is to differentiate between a washout of the lows, and hence the stops, and a falling market. I don't even try to tell the difference. Once the lows of the previous day(s) have been washed out I will wait for a rally, to show that this was just a stop hunting exercise. I will look for a shorter timescale chart, such as a 5 minute chart to confirm an intraday uptrend before I enter a long trade.

Of course I need to have a good setup in the first place on the daily charts which is my primary timeframe. It is also a prefered timeframe of many other traders too so there are likely to be many stops clustered in the same place.

Works well for stocks but I have no idea about other markets.

 

[Bint_Crusher]

Mrfigure.

I believe that the spreadbetting companies are a bit dodgy, but not in the respect to any of your trades so far and they certainly didn't take 25k off you with any malpractice. Simply put, they are dodgy but this is completely off topic. You are responsible for your loss not them. They did not manipulate the price at all as far as i can tell looking at other brokers.

Also, using the word success and yourself in the same sentence offends me and a lot on this forum. You are not successful. You do not understand the market enough and ask stupid questions regarding spikes. You are arrogant being so blase about losing 25k, and they only reason i think you are so is because you generally believe you will make the money back. Unless you are a millionaire then 25k is a lot of money to anyone. You are the same as 95% of the losers out there, in that you think you can always make it back. Next time you might not have the beginners luck.

Brettus this assessment is right on. To make that amount ,400% is uncanny, perhaps down to luck but most certainly not attributable to sound risk mamagement.
To lose this amount subsequently is the hallmark of an appendage vacuum, pure and simple.
Mf is one of the 90% of traders that are sucked in by the prominse of a fantastic lifestyle without any regard for the risk involved.whistlingwhistlingwhistling:whistling.
What a throbber. I'm off to close my short on the EURUSD before the US market opens and stops me out.


A wrist job that lets himself lose that amount of money has no business calling me anything. 400% plus in profit and then taking a loss of that magnitude means either:

The trader has not placed protective stops therefore is a complete **** deserving to lose.

OR

The trader has no idea of how the markets move, how to manage risk, how to mange trades how to manage his wife how to manage his life how to present himself as anything other than a complete **** deserving to lose.
:coo l: :c ool::coo l::whi stling:whi stling:whi stling:whi stling

 

[DionysusToast]

Brettus this assessment is right on. To make that amount ,400% is uncanny, perhaps down to luck

I will repeat one more time.

Luck was not the reason the 400% was made.

The 400% was made because there were no stop losses.

The 400% was lost because there were no stop losses.

See Howard Cohodas/Spanish89 and a long, long, long list of other 'traders' who kept betting against zero on the roulette wheel with the obvious long-term consequences.

 

[D70]

I will repeat one more time.

Luck was not the reason the 400% was made.

The 400% was made because there were no stop losses.

The 400% was lost because there were no stop losses.

See Howard Cohodas/Spanish89 and a long, long, long list of other 'traders' who kept betting against zero on the roulette wheel with the obvious long-term consequences.

Nice to have you back DT.
One of very few on here to talk sense.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Who is this "they" you are referring to and what direct knowledge do you have of "their" actions?

They are those who took the OP's money. At a guess I point my finger at the market makers being the prime suspects. Secondary suspects are the banks and similarly sized entities who have the money to the b*tch slap the prices around. The SB bookies are small fries in this game. So they are not responsible for the moves in the market.

 

[tomorton]

They are those who took the OP's money. At a guess I point my finger at the market makers being the prime suspects. Secondary suspects are the banks and similarly sized entities who have the money to the b*tch slap the prices around. The SB bookies are small fries in this game. So they are not responsible for the moves in the market.

'took', 'suspects', b*tch slap the prices around' - sounds like you imply illicit market manipulation is going on, though to me it seems like prices moving according to supply and demand.

 

[BeginnerJoe]

though to me it seems like prices moving according to supply and demand.

It seem to me more like prices move for profit motives. This is why most people lose because they are the victims of such motives.

 

[Bint_Crusher]

I will repeat one more time.

Luck was not the reason the 400% was made.

The 400% was made because there were no stop losses.

The 400% was lost because there were no stop losses.

See Howard Cohodas/Spanish89 and a long, long, long list of other 'traders' who kept betting against zero on the roulette wheel with the obvious long-term consequences.

I absolutely agree, only I have to give lady luck some place on the playing field, after all if 400% was made (albeit unverified) then it is hard to imagine that this was down to an astute trading decision given the appendage hoover attitude towards trade management when in profit. Mf has not learned the most fundamental lesson about trading and market makers, TREAT YOUR BROKER LIKE YOU TREAT YOUR BITCH.

Benga - Smack Your Bitch Up - YouTube

whistlingwhistlingwhistlingwhistlingwhistlingwhistlingwhistlingwhistlingwhistling:whistling

 

[Phantom666]

This is a perfect description of what will not make you money trading.

Reversal patterns and indicators indeed!

What a load of tosh! Reversal patterns can make you oodles of money. In fact, I fade them all the time, and do very well from it!

 

[Phantom666]

I think there's a chance you don't know what NFP is.

Nigerian Fisting Partnership?

National (association of) Felching Professionals?

A warning perhaps? Maybe Nobody F*cks (wit dis) Pimp?

 

[BeginnerJoe]

What a load of tosh! Reversal patterns can make you oodles of money. In fact, I fade them all the time, and do very well from it!

Do you do well enough to show a statement ? Most don't. Perhaps you can do better ?