Good questions Tim...let me break it down from my perspective..
Part of the 'confusion' that I refered to in an earlier post is that I'm unclear about the weighting of the mechanical part of your approach Vs the discretionary element? Perhaps you could outline what DayRaider1.1 is?
I trade cycles in the futures market. There are three elements to cycles, one time, the other price. The third component to trading is knowing WHO YOU ARE TRADING AGAINST - That being "institutions". The institutions have computer programs. The computer programs trade a varying portfolio of mechanical systems. Each system trades a set period of time/price cycles. At certain points within these "time/price cycles" the net/net of the mechanicals is a "reversal" or a "trend", at least from a daytrading perspective. (yes, I can trade 'counter-trend' and still make money).
When the Mechanicals reverse upward the market ends the "oversold condition" and the market exhibits one of two "speeds" in reversing upward. I teach the 4 different ways the oversold condition can end (all technical trading rules) and the two speeds that the market can "leave" the oversold condition, for example.
DayRaider does the "math", all the user has to do is recognize one of the 4 reversal rules is in play + the mechanical rule in the Dow Cash (for kindergarten trades) -
DayRaider will have already generated a "auto buy" number in the market previously, the trader puts a limit order in near that number and is either filled or not filled. Newbies tend to hesitate (they don't believe the dang thing is that accurate! lol) so they may chase the market a little by finally entering at the market above the "auto buy" price.
The opposite logic for shorts, with a couple tweaks of course. (Prices fall differently than they rise in the markets I've studied)
Does it generate specific buy / sell signals, or is it some sort of bespoke indicator that then requires some discretionary interpretation on the part of the trader etc.?
Pretty much answered that above. There are 6 'Dow Behaviors' that ONLY occur in the Dow..and it takes a couple weeks of study and backtesting to understand and take advantage of them. They are hard and fast numbers and times, with about 10% discretion of an 'exact' number.
Looking at your comments, there appears to be inconsistencies, e.g. "The Mini Dow is doing 300-400 points a day, so 100 points a day is a snap" followed by, "...I want 90% of the uptrend or downtrend when it occurs (usually there are 2 daytrading trends per day)." Like anyone, I like the sound of +100 points per day, but I'm confused about how that's achieved. Also, to be honest, I'm mindful of the old addage 'if it sounds too good to be true...'
Watch this video link, ("First Streaming Video") it basically outlines what a P & L of the MiniDow can look like:
The Mechanical Day Trader: DayRaider 1.1 Demonstration Videos
Daytrading is a business of numbers; The Dow is a rubber band, it can only stretch so far (trend) then it comes back (retracement) - speaking of the Dow in a
daytrading environment only here.
What is the average daily range of the Mini Dow (a "set" of numbers)? How many points comprise retracements within this set of numbers (each retracement is a subset)? How many points does the Dow typically move, as a maximum from the farthest point yesterday to the farthest point away today (a superset of numbers)?
My
"Yesterday's Trade" methodology explains this and actually tells the subscriber which direction the Mechanical Trading Systems are pointed
at the first tick of the Dow open.
So the subscriber can trade
WITH the Overnight Mechanical Systems
until the Mechanicals reach their objective (sometimes the market "opens" at an objective). Once the Mechanicals reach their overnight objective (in the current Session 1 of the Dow) the subscriber then measures if the market has ended it's Oversold or Overbought condition (pretty nondiscretionary - all hard math there) and exits their existing position (if they took it) and enters a reversal using one of the 4 reversal rules (which tell the trader what support/resistance # to use).
I'm happy to concede that I may well have misunderstood or misinterpreted what you're saying. But, to me, it's a muddled message, with pop videos and a dash of politics thrown in for good measure!
I love to tweak people...and I don't need the dinero, it all goes to taxes!....I trace it all back to my childhood when I could never figure out how to defend myself from my Big Brother who could beat me up or humiliate me at will.
haha
I want 90% of the uptrend or downtrend when it occurs (usually there are 2 daytrading trends per day)."
I want to enter slightly above S2 of an uptend and exit somewhere between R1 to R3 at the end of an uptrend. It is very realistic to get 85% to 90% of a trend. Do the math. (of course you have to know what the h?ll S2 and R2 are, don't ya? I teach that).
I made a heckuva lot of money in the 90's back when the Nasdaq was fun to trade; when I switched markets and started trading the S&P I would sit back with my Tradestation 4.0 or 2000i and figure out why I did not get all the money I saw I could have gotten from a trade. It took years, but I can explain 5 hours out of 6 1/2 hours of the Dow market most every day. Trading Ranges are sometimes frustrating but the Dow doesn't stay in them very long, cuz futures traders don't make a lot of money in TR's. The low hanging fruit is trends and there are several of them a day. (definition of trend = 2 or more consecutive trade entries in the same direction after the oversold or overbought condition has ended).
Daytrading is a business...I seek to extract as much as possible using a low risk methodology that can explain 80% or more of all the reversals that occur in Session 1 (and the 8:30 announcement during the Globex premarket).
Thanks for the questions, Tim, they're good; all stuff I've explained 1 on 1 with people but it's nice to be able to put it writing.
Regards,
Stuart