Hook Shot's Blog

[Hook Shot]

Fellowship Is Bliss

This week Hookie joined the Chancers and the Spivs once more. Some might call them Technocrats or even entrepreneurs and other respectable names ...but who has time for labels. Hookie expressed himself without apology and ended up on the positive side of the ledger.... Hookie is back....Yep Hookie is BACK!

Looking into Friday, indices are high and rising particularly in Euroland! Somebody seemed to flip a switch and Siemens, Sap and Daimler Chrysler produced knockout results ......to most peoples surprise. Something going on !............ But my job is to position my boat to take advantage of the Tide. Not stop to reason why?

Now from being Mid term bearish.....I have to be near term bullish cos that's the way the tide is flowing.............. I can't buy Euro Indices apart from considering Ftse. So I'm gonna have to wait to SHORT Europe on weakness.............In the meantime I have to buy Euro-Dogs and US Dogs......GE/Intel/JNJ.....even Vodafone, BT, France Tel have to be considered. They're low and so the risk is less. BUT I really want to give this runaway Bull in Europe a SLAP. Not cos I think they have gone too far - Who knows where indices should be. No I think they have got there too quickly!! they are STRETCHED!

Yep, I mean Germany's DAX. Genau....this is the BEST Trade of the next few days

New post Crash Highs in the blink of an eye. I'm pretty confident in nailing a profit on Dax - but may have to ride US/Uk laggards whilst I'm waiting for my curtain call.

Intel-GE-JNJ are all part of "The Establishment" and are unlikely to whither for much longer IF the US is gonna stage a meaningful recovery.

As George W. would say "Bring it on ....".!

DAX is a cinch............. But need to be prepared if it keeps me waiting.

Hook Shot - Glad to be back!

 

[frugi]

LOL nice to see a lively journal rich in character and elegant in exposition, or summat . Keep it up sir.

 

[Hook Shot]

Is the long wait over ?

Spent most of the time since last note nudging ones and twos nothing to really get my teeth into - certainly no fours and sixes. The sort of innings Boycott or Tavare might have played. Not to worry runs on the board - and the bad balls may eventually come my way..... maybe tomorrow.

Fomc meeting didn't do anything to excite the market which was already whispering that 1292 and 10950ish (futures) is as far as we go for now. Then late on a body swerve and a drop of the shoulder and he was off - heading south.

I'm pleased that the market has made (what looks to be) a decisive move cos it's 20 Spx points to last weeks low. But I'm not happy! I've been waiting for this moment for what seems like ages and it wouldn't take much to "miss out" on possibly the best trade since big Dow smash almost 2wks ago. Put another way 18 runs to win off the last over and on comes a part time bowler.......!

So I'm on night shift tonight - to catch what should be a slide in Tokyo below 16500. A win of 100pts or more will set me up nicely up for European sesh. Dax/Cac are really well positioned and with a bit of luck we'll get dip then small intraday rally so I can jump on board in size. Elsewhere, I've got a sackful of potential equity shorts - and will use night sesh to cherry pick.

With markets at juicy posiitons February should be a great month - I've raised my target in expectation.

Regards
Hook Shot

 

[Hook Shot]

Down Time is Good sometimes

Markets quiet so far - good time to stand back take a landscape view.

This US rally is a thing of beauty ....... and everyone's got a reason why it got started and why it won't last. But the joy is it WILL fail and probably big if we test or exceed the 1327 highs. On a Year End view that "looks" like easy money - as I feel we are vulnerable at those lofty levels.

Why ?
-Vix is getting crushed now 12ish with multi year lows around 10.
-Bird Flu threat has not gone away still humming away in background
-MidEast stuff is not over ....is peace about to break out ? will US really allow Iran to keep its program ?
-New Fed Chairs often make their name in a Crisis..soonish after appt
-Famed 4yr cycle
-Big weather event and and.......

In the meantime, I really should be sitting on my hands picking my stock plays for when the inevitable burn out comes. Yep the Magic of 52 is not dead - just sleeping as I've (temporarily) discarded it due to the patience required!

Instead, I'm getting caught up with the day to day machinations -because that's where my adrenaline addiction takes me

Speaking of a buzz I remember the old days with Dow regularly making 200+ daily ranges and it was common to get TWO 300+ swings a week. In fact I remember the days when we couldn't wait for last hour with Dow down 300 or to see if the cavalry turned up to ignite a rally of 100-150pts into the close.

Anyway on that nostalgic note........with Europe looking perky (so far) I'm thinking whether to buy Dow @ 345 into a potential new swing high. I know I shouldn't bother until we get nearer 300 to get risk/reward back in my corner - but....what if that does not happen ?

Finally, finally, I'm looking to sell Pakistan runs as prices get nearer 450ish. I think Inzie and Yousuf are pretty hot but I'm hoping their great scoring run is ending (from a betting viewpoint only). Missed shorting Inzie at Old Trafford after his run of 9 inns without a failure against England - waiting for better prices!

The Hookster

 

[Hook Shot]

Eventful Week

Just about made my target last week and should make Aug target too.........

However, I'm struggling again..... It was hard work!

Rank- coming off the lows with potential bidder has been good and should have run the profit some more.

Paypoint - just about to start scaling in around 500p and big broker puts big buy and flew thru 600 before I could blink. Good opportunity blown away.

Made a bit out of Naz overbought situation - but didn't stop long.

Got two bites of the cherry on Dow as it bounced b/w 380 and 270 early in week - Monday and Wed I think.

Haven't a clue what will happen to indices next week (wb 28/8). Yep they're high but they're also looking pretty resilient. So what to do ??? Who knows ?

On the PLUS side, I'm noticing plenty of pennant or triangle formations in stocks as I look for opportunities for this week and September.

Ftse 250 - St James Capital, SVG Capital, and Bovis (bid?).
Ftse 100 - Man Group (bid ?) -something's brewing !!!
US - Newmont (mirroring the pattern in Gold)

In addition, there are some other opportunities just begging to be traded - maybe soon.

UK- Tate and Lyle at ALL TIME HIGHS - we all know that won't last forever - only risk is someone might be ready to bid. Outside of that it seems easy short for the patient! ASTRAZENECA IS ALSO PRETTY CLOSE TO 52h.

US - Altria (old Philip Morris), Exxon, Budweiser(Anheuser Busch), Kellogs ......... all at or pretty close to 52H and some at All Time Highs.....

So .... we have a strong pipeline of potential deals but I'm assuming I'll be doing small trades here and there to keep the momentum going.

Aah that was better - things are actually not that bad .... it only seems that way sometimes. Too much work not enough leisure time but that's what happens when you get promoted - or at least it appears that way.

Happy Trading
Over and Out

Hook Shot

Ps. Cricket bet went sour as Pakistan piled on the runs - small loss.

 

[Hook Shot]

Tearing The House Down !!!

What a difference some good wins make. Since last time I can't stop winning it's crazy -I know it won't last so enjoying every minute of it.

Where do I start ? Floors 2 go came off the floor (52L) to rise around 40% - I got around 25% in less than week - magic! It's still a goer but you never go broke on a profit and it was there - I had to have it!

Rank - I mentioned last time - got in just above 52L saw what seemed like stake building from US institution did the due diligence and jumped in - it just keeps rising so its easy to keep moving my stop up.

Dec-Naz - again overbought and Comp approaching 2200 which to me was key - oh dear couldn't break out kerching!

Bovis - also mentioned last time lovely pennant/triangle - I'm already aware that housebuilders are looking to get married soon and bovis looks attractive .... accumulated then pennant broke out to the upside - here we go again.

There are others but modesty forbids .......
No one last one Exxon!
Exxon was sitting at ALL TIME HIGH and so "vulnerable". BP was getting caned (incidentally very close to 52L so now interesting)and Exxon was at highs didn't make sense - with oil tanking too - there had to be something wrong. I saw the gap down off the highs and jumped in and would you believe it Exxon fell steadily to yesterday hitting 67.... I only got the move from 70 to 68 (oh dear)

In the past this has lead me to make some silly trade because of over-confidence. I think I may have done it again - Why does that happen ?

Finally, markets nicely poised - within limits with bearish bias. For once I don't care which way it goes because it "should" be straightforward. Doesn't happen very often but that's the way I see it right now. I'll be looking to short dow if it fails around 400-420. A break of Thurs lows sets up test of 260 lows - not rocket science...

Bigger Picture, I'm still looking for my BIG trade of the year. If US continues to trade higher and Vxo(old vix) seems to have taken out 12 and could be indicative of some fun in the future. I thought I had one in May with Indian market - but I was underweight so when fall came it was welcome but not MEGA-MEGA. Market fell over 30% in the end. I got out early too should have trailed my stop ........... I know-I know !

Feeling Good, but I think I'm about to be caught on the midwicket boundary attempting yet another big six! Fingers crossed -but I'm not hopeful.

Hook Shot

 

[Hook Shot]

Mean Reversion .......

Yep as hinted at in last mini-blog hot streak has gone away and apart from last Monday (11/9) there has been very little to shout about.

Last time I spoke about a crazy trade I made because of overconfidence setting in. Well I escaped as the ball sailed into the crowd for another SIX - they do say fortune favours the brave ... at least in cricket. I shorted Indian market just close to 12k on the equivalent of the Bombay Sensex (I actually traded Nifty futures contract). Weekend full of worry about stupidity of it - not a bad move strategically but the trade was large and since India doesn't trade out of hours (yet) I was trapped in there subject to a potential Big News event which could have blown away my position. I didn't have a stop.

But someone up there liked me - and the index fell apart making me APPEAR pretty smart and feeling pretty good. I got out with a nice little bundle fearing my luck would change and some other factors which made it hard to manage the trade. Had I been able to hold on a bit longer I would have made twice as much. I'm sure we've all been there!

What now ....... ? Well India is currently over 12k seems to want to press on.. US is high but doesn't seem to want to give up just yet. India- I will scale into another short as I think from here up to 12200 ish is a swamp zone. US - due to my short bias on strategic grounds, I have to play long tactically to avoid that ugly feeling I get when the market won't co-operate with my beliefs and I'm unhedged. I say HAVE TO .. but if I had an empty book I would be sitting on my hands or making the odd scalping short just for amusement.

In conclusion, I'm transfixed on the indices when I really ought to be looking for other opportunities - they say a watched kettle never boils or something like that. So not much to say (again?) but I've filled up plenty of space doing it and purged my TRADING MIND in the process.

All the best

Hook Shot

Ps.-As we speak Dow is teasing Monday's lows (out of hours quote) so going long just in case is low risk hedge for MY trading book.

 

[Pat494]

Good luck Hookie !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Hook Shot]

Frustrations of a swing trader

First - Thanks Pat494 (in case you don't manage to read this right to the end!)
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I don't even know how to start this....... for two weeks I've been waiting for a decent swing trade and it's eluded me every time.

I'm still addicted to US market - desperately WILLING the mean reversion to happen - but so far it can't hear me or isn't bothered. Either way I've had to shelve my bearskin and put on some horns. It feels really strange half way up the himalayas but such is life.

Whilst the bears have been getting stuffed (or taken up cross dressing and become bulls for a bit)- I've turned to the dollar Yen. But alas same story steady progress higher then starts a short swift decline whilst you've turned your back to do a bit of work - (my boss would go mental if he really knew how much time...)

The only other macro trades that I've considered are Oil and Gold which I want to buy but they are either plumetting after a prolonged bear move or making tentative rises - which is no use to any swing trader........ Then today both fell apart providing fantastic swing opps ....if only ...............

I know I know I should have been ready to turn bearish on both at much higher levels - but as can happen I fell in love with them and by the time I realised they didn't love me back it was too late!


So now what ........ ??

I've got to forget about scanning every move on $/Yen (but see how it behaves as it approaches Monday highs in mid 118's). A breakout could be swift so I am interested if 118 goes tomorrow.... However with jobs on Friday any breakout might not stick just yet.

Dow/Spx - lets change the subject.........

Oil - I'll WAIT until 55/56 although inventories tomorrow so will have to take a peek then.

Gold - I should wait until 560 on Dec but now I've said that it probably won't go below 576/77. It is weak so I should wait to make my move.

With so many potential swing trades on hold I've had to delve into my bargain bucket where I find Glaxo pretty close to 52L, (Bp is as well but ........ ). I also find ITV amongst the laggards but no real momentum or secret buying noticed yet.

Lastly there I've also uncovered a clutch of investment related companies which look ready to do something -Schroders, RIT Capital and Evolution Group. If this bull phase goes on for a few more weeks these companies should benefit and will provide me with an alternative to buying the indices.

Some of you may remember me highlighting triangular patterns in Man Group and St James Capital - they both had decent upside breaks and Man made new highs - and .. NO.. before you think of asking.

Wildcards are RANK saw outrageous volume today and was weak. Also GCap (old capital radio). Newspapers and Radio co's are generally on sale at the moment but as GCAP is the biggest radio co in UK, I suspect someone might be interested perhaps private equity - despite the advertising outlook.

So as you can see I'm scrambling as our atlantic cousins would say......... There's gotta be a swing play in at least one of these - there just has to be.......... ?

.........to think someone wants/wanted me to manage their money - they must be mad (on present form anyway)

Thanks Pat494...

Au revoir/Tchus/Blah blah blah

Hook Shot
[Still finding ways to say nothing with as many words as possible]

 

[Hook Shot]

Zippiddy Doo Daa ............Zippiddy Day

My oh my what wonderful day........plenty of sunshine coming my way and so on ................... YES!!!!

Bought the first pullback today @ 1340 in Dec Sp500 ...in decent size and .......... well the rest is history... MAGIC.

No more Mickey Mouse for me - I feel like KING KONG!!

Of course it will all end in tears but for now I'm having the time of my life........ at last!!

Did someone say Dow 12k ..... why not 13k or 14k or any other silly number who cares right now ?

.........Yesterday all my profits seemed so far away.......... now it looks as if they're here to stay ......oh I believe in yesterday.....

Hook Shot

 

[Hook Shot]

As one door opens...........

Another quick one.....

Trading wise things have picked up significantly since the dark days of 3rd October Thank Heavens! I've accepted the market is going up and had to change my game. I was hinting at buying sectors which might benefit specifically from rise in equities and this has paid off in Size as Kensington, Schroders, Rit Capital all went ballistic (relatively speaking). Actually, Kensington is a mortgage bank but you get the picture.

With the market high ............... it's hard for me to keep buying the dow but I've cut down my deal size and have been lucky to buy the first decent dip and this has kept me on the right side. I don't like it though ........ it just feels wrong...... but it's working so far.

Elsewhere, I've offset my fear of buying a market so close to highs by digging into my bargain (?) bucket where I found US stocks Conoco and Phelps Dodge. I found out that one of the Big Dog fund managers had rode the slide down in these two stocks and was now adding just before the lows. Normally, you would just ignore it as .... someone trying to rescue a bad trade by averaging down. However, this group are VERY savvy ........... so I thought I was onto something. Needless to say Phelps gapped up a day after making its low and took off like a bandit ... I got out at what should have been resistance but it blew it away........ nice trade though. Conoco hasn't been as explosive but we've managed to make some money on the rally about 200pts (every cent is one pt).... after a bit of a delay.

So feeling good .........trading well (or at least well enough) and looking for more success but realising that the banana skin(s) awaits. I'm looking for some kind of interim high in the Dow this week - but it will probably be shallow or so I'm programming myself to believe - since going short is Easy trade at these levels.

The only thing is I've been given the red card by my other half - two bookable offences! Actually, it was more than two but less said about that the better...... The thing is everyone's trying to pair me up with every person they know who happens to be single.regardless ....... I think I'll surprise them all and get myself a young thing .... a young student perhaps a Charlotte or Harriet who plays classical music or something. Never, really mixed with that crowd before.... but I think I'll give it a bash .... so to speak.

Happy Trading

Hook Shot

 

[Pat494]

Sorry to see you got 2 bookables and I guess rightly sent -off. No worries though have fun until caught again ! A brief respite from a nagging, unreasonable female. I mean, why shouldn't one be allowed to throw socks etc. on the floor, throw up outside the house etc etc
Good luck
Pat

 

[Hook Shot]

Roll my sleeves up time......

Today I was looking for dax potentially to make another low and then rally since two down days are usually the most it wants to do. However, I also allowed for it to end the pullback on tuesday - althought 3 down days are pretty rare.

The dax so far has made its low on top of old high and is now back to normal slightly positive. If today's low holds then new highs (only 40+pts away) are expected tues. I missed the first hour low so will be looking for intraday pullback to try and get long. The limits for me right now are ~6340 last weeks low then down to 6300. New highs to 6550-6600 are what I expect. TraderTom.com was looking for 6535-40. I like 6600 since that would be 3x the lows on the DAX from the bear market - but we'll see.

Since I'm off base on Dx and other indices seem to be coming back after Asian smackdown, I'm looking at Cac which still seems sluggish and may offer better opps in Euro sesh.

Asian indices like Asx and Nikkei are also on radar screen as they got absolutely hammered overnight. Potential for sharp bounce pre trade (during european/us time) - although they look pretty week.

Gold and Oil also on the docket.
Gold must make it's mind up now having broken the big downtrendline a couple of weeks ago. Last week was an inside week holding lows with a lower high. Bulls will want to take out 632 on spot to resolve indecision but should be aware that the 613/14 level will be one to watch. So far it's piddling about at the top of friday's sharp recovery... I'm worried it will flop back into the range since Gold stocks don't look healthy - we'll see.

Oil is interesting as it's low..........however the chart looks awful and it would take a big catalyst to resurrect this one after the late week slapping.

CONCLUSION
Trying to select a decent index play (maybe one european and one asian).

Dow/US, no idea - and since there is no dip to buy not of any interest right now. I need to be careful not to get fixated on US the markets are broad and diverse and I should remember this.

OIL will probably take the trade over Gold since it's looking like time to go up although rez is everywhere..... In any case Oil should give me some scalps as it tries to go up.

Copper - probably won't trade this but if the rally doesn't get legs it could get .........

Finally, Tom Hougaard has had 17 November as a potential turning point and it worked in Asia despite the comeback in Europe I'm keeping this in mind.

Hook Shot

 

[Hook Shot]

Udpate on earlier ramblings .......

Took the train to paris and took 36pts not great but it will do and more to add if the market holds up Tuesday.

Japanese market is now up over 100pts 90pts more than when I posted. (no trade!)

Nymex did give me another scalp though not sure how far this bounce will go short term (59ish needs to be cleared) I bagged another 31pts

Gold - still dawdling with bko to 627spot rejected......... is this a sign of things to come i.e potential test of last week lows and potential brkdown ? Maybe I'm being too short term ....... as there is plenty of time to have another shot at the upside later this week.

Dax held it's lows ... never came anywhere near and flew to new highs my gain would have been same as Cac trade but Frenchie seemed to be waiting for me to get onboard to I took that one.

Tuesday
-------------
I expect Dax to continue 6500/550 are potential targets depending on Dow. Although 6550 may wait for Wed. A bit worried about Cac and to lesser extent Ftse and they may give up their gains if oil cannot sustain it's dead cat bounce. I'm a buyer of any dax pullback but won't hold my breath.

Consequently, now struggling for trade but possibility to get into Nikkei if opp arises in next 4hrs........ Nymex remains a goer if it can regain 59ish on pullback but apart from that there is just copper. I've not traded that much before but if the one dayer is all we get I'll have to take the plunge on the short side.

Still interested in stocks but they will move when they are ready which might take a while!

Hook Shot

 

[Hook Shot]

What a day........

Today has been a scream had the day off ...for once!

Made a bit on a few trades nothing mega but I'm happy... The main thing is I spent the day getting a feel for the markets again - sometimes you can get a little detached and you lose the rhythm and get out of sync and start grasping for trades.

I now know (or think I know) where the equity indices are and where the key levels are wrt risk management.
=================================================
US and Germany are still pretty strong and should see new highs. Germany dax is on fire. Ftse and Cac are not as strong but with Oil trying to firm up they should not slip too far if at all - more on Oil later.

Nikkei and Australian closed at lows not a good sign but Nikkei is up in US sesh about +60 although it was up over 100. Nikkei may go to 15500 another 200 from the monday close but 15500-400 should see a fight back (if it gets that far). Australian not checked out of hours quote but comeback in indices generally will probably benefit Asx 200 to kick it off the lows of around 5322.

Spot Gold is mired trying to rally today above 627 spot with no success but held 620 the 50% retrace off friday's lows so let's see - it still needs to shoot for 32/34 if it is to break last weeks range. Still more time so watching and waiting. However, I'm now ready to consider that 627 may be a wall - yep very early days for that but that's what I'm prepared for....the market has to prove me wrong.

Copper - mentioned it earlier due to comments by Bill McLaren. I didn't know that copper had been so weak but that's why I read other people's work....... Anyway he said we need to rally smartly else copper could be in deep brownstuff......

Today's rally was not much to blog about so tomorrow could be interesting.

Oil had been fighting running battle with $59 today with no success but then it hasn't caved in below $58 either - the zigzag today was good vol for day traders but I just got a scalp. Oil close near it's highs of the day implying possibility of regaining $59 tomorrow. Nevertheless, Oil is in a deep well with numerous rez levels between here and Thurs $61.40 slapping.
But OIL is low and when it's in the mood resistance is futile.
We've got a little trading range 58-59 so I'm looking for it to go to $60 ....... there that's not extravagant is it? Time will tell it could go much further in time - inventories Wed!

Overnight/tomorrow will introduce some Fx into the mix - with Sterling tickling 1.90 and Euro messing about 1.28 (poss forming higher bottom ?) Will have to see what Nicole at Mizuho has to say...

=================================================
But this arguably meaningless analysis or opinion is not really what it's been about - just a mere by product...

No.... today - I RELAXED, made a gazillion posts for fun and a great time was had by me........ In addition, I'm now clued up and markets have now given me one day more info than I had before. Sure, today was an indulgence but it should pay off in the days and weeks to come.

I'm clearer and calmer and that is like Gold (or should I say platinum) dust for a trader like me.

Happy Trading

Hook Shot

 

[Hook Shot]

New Year - New Start

Dunno how to start this one .... been a long time.....

The end of 2006 was pretty messy - I struggled to get rid of a large deficit on my short dow positions as the market went to the moon....

I'm not the only one but having company is no consolation. It was rank bad play. But with some carefully chosen long equity plays and feverish ins and outs on the indices.... the damage was less bad than it would have been.... It actually was "pretty bad" at one stage.

All the exertions took it's toll ........ ie on the non trading part of my existence which compounded things...... but you recover, learn from it and move on.........

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After a joyous xmas I managed to sneak away for a quiet moment or two to think about 2007.... and how I could raise my game. The answer hit me right in the face - it was one of those Eureka moment........ a revelation ........Saul on the road to Damascus.. perhaps you get the gist. No... what it was is that I needed to go back to basics..............

Markets go up and down.. but you don't REALLY know when they are going to do either - if you did ................

What I realised early on, was that on any particular day I haven't a clue but on SOME I have more of a clue - because markets are "STRETCHED" in one direction or another. I know that that stretched condition needs to correct itself - generating a move in the opposite direction. Now this is all pretty elementary but bear with me .... haha

No ....what has made the difference this year is I've stopped "willing" the market to go down or up and more importantly putting my cash at risk. This year I find situations which are stretched ... hope they get more stretched and when the inevitable ............INEVITABLE happens I'm on hand to take my cut.... It's worked like a charm and hopefully will continue to be so..

It does mean plenty of waiting ....... but with some of that waiting time I have chance to hunt for potential opportunities, do my due dilligence and cherry pick the ones I really want to go for.... I will search anywhere in the universe for a "stretched" opportunity especially if there are plenty of points on offer...

Nikkei - has been a happy hunting ground for me when I noticed it's positioning and the potential for profit - it's pretty volatile. Now have modelled it so that it really can't surprise me much... I could regret saying that but that's the way I feel right now. I feel I have pokemon in my back pocket... sure he'll win a few but I've got his number and he knows it....

I'm in a similar position with Dax but some times I have it and other times I'm lost.... also there is lots of commentary on Dax .. so sometimes I get tugged this way and that (different style timeframes..etc). With Nikkei it's purer no one seems to give a stuff and that avoid much of the usual dissonance.

There are other stock opps like Long - Bp, Long-Newmont, Short - Ibm etc .... and other specials but it's a waiting game .......

It's been a wonderful start to the year ...... I'm calmer and making decent winning trades (no losers and we're at mid month....)

I've reinvented myself as a trader and it's paying off .... Now I need to look at how I can improve even further. No quantum leaps just gradually.. as I cut out the rash strokes and play the percentage shots.... Sorry I'm cricket/tennis mad and really looking forward to Aussi open - as for cricket well we'll leave that one.

Mmmmmh that felt good - should do that more often... i feel right as rain!

Finally..... markets are high US/Europe/Japan so my posture is ... yes you guessed it to wait for bullishness to subside and whack the living daylights out of it.... probably Japan and Daxy as they are more jittery...

OIL and $/Y remain on watchlist. Oil's a great great day trade play but that's not my style, haven't got the time and to be honest it frightens me a bit 100-150pt move within 30mins is not uncommon. Great for someone else though. In my dreams I'd like to do nothing else but trade crude.... maybe one day ?

Bit long but we got there....

Regards

HS

 

[fibonelli]

Hi HS

Sorry to hear about your problems. Without sounding patronising, have you read the "market wizard" books? If not, many of the successful traders profiled in the book talk about the importance of optimum trades only, of being disciplined and of being patient.

Good luck for 2007

 

[de_cooky]

Hooky ..i loved ur new year analysis and resolutions..especiall y the crude oil part of it as i am doing the stuff that ur dreams are made of(day trading crude), but believe u me..its one hell of an on the edge thriller.. but I love it..tell me more bout urself no...

 

[Hook Shot]

Be careful what you wish for....

Things calmed down since the last post........

Nikkei not as easy to hit but losses were minimal... my dominance was so great it just could not continue..

OIL has proved profitable but I'm only trading in small size for reasons mentioned in last post.

Managed a decent move on toppy Gold early Feb but it was all over before it really started... I'm getting better at timing Gold..

Elsewhere not much to talk about really just plenty of waiting....

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Then........... Last Sunday 25th Feb ....I was there feeling a bit iffy after a few minor trades but not much to get my teeth into and hoping - like you do - that the new week will bring some joy, ecstasy.....excitement!

Now I know the top guys say this and that about emotion free trading and making money consistently should be dull etc...

I do understand the damage ego and emotions can have on one's trading account - but I'm no cold blooded killer - I like FUN and plenty of it....!

Anyway I digress... I noticed that in FX euro-yen had reached a new high on friday and was due some give-back in the coming week... I was so excited I even went on record and highlighted to the world....

I also noticed that Gold ... had just hit a timing window. I'm no expert on Gold but I can count and sometimes this proves useful from a trading perspective. There were a few other factors which told me Gold was vulnerable - potentially very vulnerable.

Lastly, I noticed the dow was wobbly......... not weak but something was not right. I checked the main dow stocks GE, Msft.......Aig... Ibm .... blah blah blah and the picture was pretty horrid. Even superstox like HP were now easing off... Although Macdonald's hit a new high!

Well all three trades were place monday and by the end of the week all showed sizeable gains....... better still the new volatility in the markets enabled me to add new intraday positions in Dow and Gold as rallies were weak...

That's the Good News........ and very pleasing it was too...

The BAD NEWS (at least this is how it feels at the mo..) is that whilst I bagged 3 decent short trades for a fantastic week... I'm now struggling........ Why ?

All trades were closed out by Friday evening .... I even caught close to the last down tick on my Dow short. You never go broke on a profit ........ but what now ? Without a rally in Yen crosses, or Gold or Dow/Global indices it would be dangerous (for me) to be opening new shorts at these levels.

Maybe I should go long ? Perhaps but the trend is clearly down so that's a hopeful trade in the very near term - although it might produce results...!

No...... I'm now on the sidelines hunting for new set ups and praying that one or more of these trades will base or provide a quick failed rally.

Strategically, I know that's a good place to be BUT I've got some days off this week and I'm not spending it doing DIY.... and anyway the Cricket World Cup hasn't started yet so can't hide there either....

I know......... there's a lady I haven't seen for absolutely ages and I hear she's on leave before starting a new job in a few weeks.... I say lady cos she's got a few miles on the clock but v.g.c .......... a good little runner!!!

Have a Good Week Everyone

Hook Shot

 

[Hook Shot]

Homing in on a mysterious analytical technique...

Hiya
Probably calling it an analytical technique is going a bit far but..... I want to home in on overbought/oversold from a slightly different perspective.... without the usual RSI/Stochastics etc......

As everyone knows big consecutive runs are not that common and so when one happens we should expect a turn as it reverts to the mean and consolidates/reverses the long streak/run.

Right now we have Dow with 7 higher daily lows on the run.... I've not done the research but I suspect this is not that common.. Sorry I don't have the "facts".

Anyway, my intuition tells me this streak of higher daily lows cannot continue and will break down this week.... possibly tues or wed.

In all truth I don't have a bl**** clue - although I would be very surprised if it went the whole week without registering a daily low !!

To me this game is about money management since we are speculating - BUT we should not forget that we are trying to call directional moves for the most part.... and so any tool which gives us an edge - (oops) should be welcome.

I think consecutive runs provide some help in that area and right now............Dow is very interesting having made 7 consecutive higher lows.... the last being monday at 916...

You may not bag an elephant sized trade but I suspect with a streak like that on the table it would be hard not to bag some points for the first down bar (break of previous days low).

Who knows we may get a few down bars .... but that's not part of the equation for me right now...

We are now 12943cash after hours thats 27 above monday's low ....

PS: Of course, if we don't get one tomorrow then the odds increase that it happens Wed/Thur or Friday....

This might sound hit and miss but there are few times when you feel confident you have the markets number and I Believe this week is one of those weeks...

Time will tell eh!