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Date: 1st April 2024.
Strong Chinese Economic Data Prompts Demand for US Stocks!
Trading Leveraged Products is Risky
Trading Leveraged Products is Risky
The USA500 starts the day with a moderate bullish price gap measuring 0.21% and continues trading 0.52% higher ever since. The price of the index is now trading at an all-time high and has risen more than 10.50% in 2024. The SNP500 has also been the best performing index in 2024 and has outperformed both the NASDAQ and Dow Jones? The question for traders is, will this continue?
A positive factor for the USA500 is the Federal Reserve and most global central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates at some point this year. The main factor which investors needed to see is that central banks were able to do so without triggering a significant economic contraction, which was achieved. Another positive factor is the Core PCE Price Index did not beat expectations, which was vital considering inflation over the past 2 months kept reading higher than previously thought.
However, some risks do remain which can make the path difficult for buyers. The price of Gold as well as the price of the US Dollar continue to rise. This occurrence indicates the market’s risk appetite and sentiment is lower than priced in the stock market. Another concern is whether the Federal Reserve will be able to indeed cut interest rates in July 2024 if inflation does not decline over the next 2 months.
Investors are closely watching the price of oil which is trading 13.50% higher in 2024 and at a 6-month high. If the price of Oil continues to rise and fails to fall back below $80.00 per barrel in the next two months, inflation will be difficult to reduce. As a result, the Fed may again push back a rate cut to July or September. Otherwise, the Fed may continue with a cut in June, but will advise less than 3 cuts for the remainder of the year.
So, what can save the SNP500 and stock market if the Fed chose not to cut and if inflation rises. The answer is the quarterly earnings reports scheduled for later this month and in May. Investors will mainly be focusing their attention on the following stocks:
USA500 – Technical Analysis After Strong Chinese Economic Data
Over the past 3 trading days, the price of the USA500 has successfully been forming higher highs and higher lows. The price this morning saw strong momentum, which was also due to positive economic data from China. The Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI beat expectations. Furthermore, technical indicators continue to indicate a higher price. The price remains above the 75-Bar EMA and above the 50.00 level on the RSI. In addition to this, delta statistics also indicate buyers are controlling the market. If the price again rises above $5,273.31, the breakout will further indicate upward price movement.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Strong Chinese Economic Data Prompts Demand for US Stocks!
Trading Leveraged Products is Risky
Trading Leveraged Products is Risky
- The Chinese economy and sentiment improve for the first time since September 2023. Chinese Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8, beating expectations. Higher Chinese data improves the global risk appetite towards stocks.
- Stocks trade higher, what is more, the SNP500, and Dow Jones again renew their all-time highs. The latest Chinese data and a PCE Price Index in line with expectations support price growth.
- The price of Gold and the US Dollar Index are both on the rise, which is a concern for investors. The market’s price movement gives no clear indication of investor’s risk appetite.
- Apple is expected to confirm the Vision Pro Headset will be made available to global consumers in the summer months.
The USA500 starts the day with a moderate bullish price gap measuring 0.21% and continues trading 0.52% higher ever since. The price of the index is now trading at an all-time high and has risen more than 10.50% in 2024. The SNP500 has also been the best performing index in 2024 and has outperformed both the NASDAQ and Dow Jones? The question for traders is, will this continue?
A positive factor for the USA500 is the Federal Reserve and most global central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates at some point this year. The main factor which investors needed to see is that central banks were able to do so without triggering a significant economic contraction, which was achieved. Another positive factor is the Core PCE Price Index did not beat expectations, which was vital considering inflation over the past 2 months kept reading higher than previously thought.
However, some risks do remain which can make the path difficult for buyers. The price of Gold as well as the price of the US Dollar continue to rise. This occurrence indicates the market’s risk appetite and sentiment is lower than priced in the stock market. Another concern is whether the Federal Reserve will be able to indeed cut interest rates in July 2024 if inflation does not decline over the next 2 months.
Investors are closely watching the price of oil which is trading 13.50% higher in 2024 and at a 6-month high. If the price of Oil continues to rise and fails to fall back below $80.00 per barrel in the next two months, inflation will be difficult to reduce. As a result, the Fed may again push back a rate cut to July or September. Otherwise, the Fed may continue with a cut in June, but will advise less than 3 cuts for the remainder of the year.
So, what can save the SNP500 and stock market if the Fed chose not to cut and if inflation rises. The answer is the quarterly earnings reports scheduled for later this month and in May. Investors will mainly be focusing their attention on the following stocks:
- Microsoft
- Apple
- NVIDIA
- Alphabet
- Amazon
- Meta
USA500 – Technical Analysis After Strong Chinese Economic Data
Over the past 3 trading days, the price of the USA500 has successfully been forming higher highs and higher lows. The price this morning saw strong momentum, which was also due to positive economic data from China. The Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI beat expectations. Furthermore, technical indicators continue to indicate a higher price. The price remains above the 75-Bar EMA and above the 50.00 level on the RSI. In addition to this, delta statistics also indicate buyers are controlling the market. If the price again rises above $5,273.31, the breakout will further indicate upward price movement.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
HFMarkets
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.