Have you ventured to the dark side yet?

[wannagetstacked]

Anybody viewing trade the breakout?

 

[samtron]

Anybody viewing trade the breakout?

I am just observing at the moment Nathan, looks a volatile market just at present, looks as if someone could make a quite few pips quickly but also at the same time if lady luck wasn't smiling loose quite a few!

thanks for posting your charts.

 

[JumpOff]

Anybody viewing trade the breakout?

I'm watching the EUR/USD pair also. It makes sense that today will be choppier and smaller range after yesterday's big move up. Trader's are busy evaluating, adjusting, gloating, and licking their wounds.
JO

 

[wannagetstacked]

Scalpers seem to be enjoying today, letting their profits go as far as 5 pips on breakouts before collecting compared to the usual 3-4 pips. These are the only type of trades I would dare to take with this level of volatility and indecision.
I may consider staying in trades a little longer if we can ever break out of this range. I feel i need a break for now so i'll see you all in a while.

Nathan

 

[wannagetstacked]

Last chart for now, just volatility scalps on here.

Good trading to you all for the rest of the day.

Nathan

 

[wannagetstacked]

Todays update,

Prices still stuck in yesterdays range with resistance very close, further resistance up at 1.3275,if this top resistance breaks it could signal an up day.

Nearest mentionable support down at the bottom of yesterdays range.
Prices currently looking bullish but if resistance at 1.3248 holds there could be a reasonable amount of shorts as the range is a good 50 pips wide.
I've highlighted where i may consider shorting with a green line.

Not the most attractive start to the day, but there's always pips to be had.

Nathan

 

[wannagetstacked]

Prices broke my first resistance level by 15 pips. I currently believe mosts stops will be gathered around the green line numbered 41 on the chart. Will therefore short there.

 

[wannagetstacked]

Update

 

[wannagetstacked]

Will quit for the morning when current short is stopped out. Charts soon

 

[wannagetstacked]

All done for the morning now with 24 pips net.
Waited for initial breakout then stayed in to profit from reactionary moves using "always in" method previously outlined.
Max risk on any trade was 7 pips.

Nathan

 

[JumpOff]

Hi Nathan,
I use trendlines in a traditional way - to show if momentum is changing. I am constantly amazed at the fractal aspect of it all. Even on a 5 sec tick chart, there are bases, B.O.'s, Trend lines (stages 1 through 3) and of course the 1-2-3 reversal and W patterns too.

Can you explain what you are showing with the diagonal red lines. It looks like you are marking the trendlettes or Swing high/low in some way that is unfamiliar to me. Can you explain why you start a diagonal line at one spot and finish at another? Also, can you talk about when you draw the line - is it done after the swing has occurred, or does the line ever extend past the right edge?

Thanks,
JO

 

[wannagetstacked]

Sorry about those lines. They serve no real relevance and are definately not trendlines. The lines are drawn on after the swing to help me see the greater trend, I basically draw a line from one swing to another with no particular accuracy.
They help me to trade with the 5-10 minute trend and show when the larger trend is consolidating.
I rarely use trendlines for momentum, I prefer to simply judge the rate at which swing highs/lows occur.

Nathan

 

[JumpOff]

No Need To Apologize! I wasn't planning to should on you. Just curious.....

JO

 

[The Baptist]

True Value

For the record,I trade from forex and so will not discuss traditional measures of volume as they are not applicable.
I have found the problem many people have with the switch to the dark side is the time and effort it takes.
One cannot expect to succeed without many many hours of bar by bar real time analysis of each candlestick to to see the different buying and selling pressures and to gain the ability to know where a stop and exit would be for any trade made,
I would like to discuss further the subject of exit and stop points, as i trade off multiple time frames with 5 min chart my main end focus stops and exit points become of extreme importance. I read an article in the Technical analyst magazine this month about how a random entry system(which i am not condoning) with correct exit and profit taking points which produced an impressive return. The importance of exiting strategies such as paring down when in profit are paramount in my eyes and can make or break a trader. I know some will say exit points cannot be predicted,which i agree, but knowing how to react to those changes is key.
I will now contribute a little on how i plan exits and stops on some of my trades.
For example:

If trading from a market hook (eg, market structure high or low)
After an down/uptrend of 3 or more bars i will wait for a hook to form, my stop loss will be 1-2 pips above the high of the hook, my entry point 1-2 pips below the 3rd bar in the hook.
KISS
There you go, a simple entry and stop setup, obviously ternding or consolidation filters have to be in place. I will not discuss these filters as they are very individual from trader to trader and should be developed through candle by candle analysis of your chosen market.
For exits, a simple strategy i use is to pair out 1/3 or 1/2 my profits when i have made my stop loss in profit. My stops are usually in the region 6-12 pips, therefore 1/3 -1/2 profits are paired out after 6-12 pips are made
I also use a trailing stop which is effective at filtering and missing noise on the majority of trades. I am a percentage trader, That means waiting and waiting for my initial filter to be met, and then analysing whether the conditions are met.
For example if the hook formed at the end of a trend provides a stop loss level of 15 points and you feel the move cannot make 30 points(1st and second profit taking levels would be at 15 pips and 30 pips using the previous profit taking setup i gave) then simply do not take the trade,how hard is that? aparently very hard for most traders as an indicator can never give you this level of detail. This simple strategy would outperform the majority if someone adapted it wholeheartedly and it doesn't even go deeply into candlestick analysis, The only caveat is the waiting you have to endure.


Phew that was a lot of writing and i don't feel i've scratched the surface of price action.
I feel this simple method provides concrete entry points,stop loss point,and exit points.

I provide this not as a system but as hopefully a stepping stone for the thousands of indicator traders. Give it a go, watch the charts and see how the hooks form,your entry points are breached, and where profit taking levels occur.

A little about money management: This strategy, if thats what it is called, uses an average of 10 pip stop loss on popular currency pairs. Using fixed fractional MM:
£10000 account
1% risked per trade = £100
10 pip stop loss = £100/10 = £10 per point

Consider this further if you will, 5 minute charts provide noise, but i feel this is acceptable noise when it means you can keep your stop at 10 points,
If you are a beginner you will not find a safer entry into trading, and it forces you to follow price action.

Have i wrote too much? Hope not, if you liked my post send some good karma my way.

Thanks

Nathan

Valuable commentary:

I agree with a lot of what was said, my learning experience has taught me the following which I hope may prove useful for any new starters:

There is no silver bullet indicator that foretells anything.

Exit systems/ money managment are not sufficiently emphasised. ie. You have only really bought well when you have successfully sold well.

Trade Size and personal liquidity or drawdown threshold must be well determined for each trade.

I believe for short term price movement analysis candlestick analysis is essential. Buy Steve N. books should you require help here.

Indicators are overated, though I do make use of other representations of volatility apart from that evident in price action.

Price resistance and support are simple and useful (horozontal strongest relevance in my view, though trenldines may be useful).

Volume always useful particularly as an emphasizer.

People don't look at enough weekly and monthly charts for the Macro moves! Which ties in often with lack of patience in early traders! I find set ups on bigger time frames more reliable.

I hope some of this concurs with others experience.

Point and Figure is a great noise suppressor.

Don't put your faith in formulaic representations of aging price action it will provide unmeritworthy comfort as wisely stated by the thread starter.

On the Karmic point I would like to :cheesy: wish Good Fortune to everyone there is an abundance of markets with liquidity for us all to succeed with our various strategies.

TB

 

[Rhody Trader]

People don't look at enough weekly and monthly charts for the Macro moves! Which ties in often with lack of patience in early traders! I find set ups on bigger time frames more reliable.

This is something I strongly believe in. Having a solid view of the longer-term situation makes shorter-term trading more effective. One just needs to make sure to not change timeframes during a trade. By that I mean you should never make a trade based on the daily charts, then suddenly shift to using the weekly charts for your exit plan if it wasn't already part of the plan.

 

[trader28]

Hmmm

 

[Rhody Trader]

Using price action only - at least the way most folks do - is by purely trading off the charts with no indicators, averages, or study of any kind.

 

[wannagetstacked]

Have been a bit busy to post recently.

Here's todays eur/usd chart.

Same method as before staying always in trailing stop reverse 2 pips above/below last swing high/low.

Shorts : Green lines
Longs : Red lines


Nathan

 

[The Baptist]

This is something I strongly believe in. Having a solid view of the longer-term situation makes shorter-term trading more effective. One just needs to make sure to not change timeframes during a trade. By that I mean you should never make a trade based on the daily charts, then suddenly shift to using the weekly charts for your exit plan if it wasn't already part of the plan.

Good comment there Rhody trader. If you are multi timeframe - the temptation to tweak across time frames is immense.

I have to confess to being long in the markt on a position set up in GBP from 1.79 up to 1.93 last year and managed to make nothing. I managed this by short term trading the same view on smaller time frame set ups similar to the original position view only bigger size with Intraday stops, not getting out on the smaller profit run ups intraday and allowing painful drawbacks to stop me out even though the long run view was right.

A Homer Simpson Duh! moment.

I believe pattern set ups are more consistent on larger timeframes, will allow greater chance for target attainment and a fill and one should trade one particular set up one way only!

I thin it is a traders paradox that those with little funds start on intraday trading to swing a bigger line when position trading can be better for the beginner both on probability set ups and as an intro to the market.

Good trading to all.

 

[wannagetstacked]

Haven't posted in a while as I felt everything about the previous strategy had been covered sufficiently.
For those who were not keen on the always in strategy I am posting something a little different which uses 5 min bars instead.

As always I trade the eur/usd pair. This particular strategy would need fine tuning for other instuments as it has a fixed take profit point, using roughly a 1:1 R:R

This is a simple but effective breakout strategy based on the breakout of 5 minute bars.

Feel free to comment.

Nathan