As someone who spent many years trading at a variety of banks, I can assure you that the majority of bank traders are clueless. As an example, it was popular back in 1997 to go long USD/THB with the view that the peg would break (eventually it did and spot went from 25.00 to 50.00). However, what most spot traders overlooked was the roll cost, i.e. the overnight borrowing charge for being short THB.. rates went to 500 pct+ and many a spot trader was destroyed, mainly through blind ignorance.
This theme continues up to the very highest levels. One senior manager came back from a trip to Tokyo once and complained loudly that pizzas were stupidly expensive there, the economy was f-cked, etc. and promptly bought USD 100mio/JPY, only to be stopped out 2 pct lower the next day.
However, this misses the point. Many bank personnel have become fabulously wealthy, irrespective of whether their own activities actually made money for the bank. Fred Goodwin was simply doing what he had always done when he bought Amro, it's just that the numbers were bigger and this time it came unstuck. He didn't do anything "wrong" as such.. had the market continued upward he would have been lauded as a hero (as he was when he bought Natwest).
The heart of the issue is mis-incentivisation, or short-termism if you will. The authorities around the world are attempting to address this, but of course it's notoriously difficult.
Perhaps the best suggestion has come from our very own unswervin' Mervyn King, who argues for banks to be broken up.
Why not? Anyone who wants to take active risk should work at a hedge fund. Retail banks should handle deposits and loans. Then there would be all the investment banks, advising and generating fees. The current structure where a retail bank such as RBS leverages its deposit base to acquire a balance sheet twice the size of the UK GDP is simply not acceptable.
But are the bankers to blame? How could they make money by peddling 100 pct mortgages if no-one took them out? How could they explode their balance sheets with no-one noticing? Everyone shares some blame here. The public, who blithely assumed house prices would never come down.. the government/BOE for insufficient oversight. Most of all I blame Gordon Brown, who as I previously suggested, is a Soviet mole sent to destroy the UK.