counter_violent
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As I understand it....the constitution does not allow for the break up of Spain.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Constitution_of_1978
As I understand it....the constitution does not allow for the break up of Spain.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Constitution_of_1978
Pat494
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I think the EU has a secret agenda to break up the EU countries into component states. This makes Brussells more of a central hub rather than state capitals of the old world. They should be delighted Spain looks like it is breaking up.
Here in the UK they have regional bodies set up e.g. the heads of these bodies are paid more than the PM !!?
You are right. It's a question of wait and see. A lot of the other parties want constitutional change because Catalans think it unfair. Whether that would solve the problem, I don't know. My opinion is that Madrid should have seen this coming years ago but, with everyone making a lot of money, it took a financial crisis to do it. Now it could be too late. What happens in Greece over the rest of this year is important.
Ah right, that would make sense, but you never can tell.
Maybe even long gold too.
Pat494
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A prediction for you: Greece and the European Union will split the difference in their quarrel over debt relief. What's uncertain is how their respective governments will justify the new deal, and how much damage they'll inflict on each other before accepting the inevitable.
EU governments, with Germany in the lead, are saying that debt writedowns are out of the question. Debts are debts. Greece's newly elected leader, Alexis Tsipras, calls the current settlement "fiscal waterboarding" and says his country faces a humanitarian crisis. His government won't pay and wants much of the debt written off. Neither side is willing to give way.
What surprises me is that this all-or-nothing positioning takes anybody in.
Debts are debts? Please. Europe's governments have already provided debt relief to Greece. (In that process, private creditors saw their loans written down; most of what remains is owed to governments.) However, the plan hasn't worked. Greece's fiscal position was so bad that the haircuts, reschedulings and interest-rate concessions weren't sufficient to restore its creditworthiness. At the same time, thanks to slower-than-expected growth, the fiscal conditions tied to the settlement proved harsher than intended. Greek voters have just repudiated those terms.
In other words, the existing settlement has failed. It therefore needs to be revised. No conceptual revolution is required. This conclusion follows from the same kind of analysis that EU governments have already relied on.
For sure, granting additional debt relief has drawbacks -- just as there were drawbacks to granting debt relief in the first place. It sends a bad message; it encourages bad behavior in future; it will inflame resentment among voters in other EU countries. That's why it's a good idea, so far as possible, to make relief conditional on efforts to behave responsibly. But the likely consequences of any EU refusal to budge are much worse.
There's a serious risk that Greece will default unilaterally. This would not be in Greece's interests, but it's too close a call for comfort. The existing settlement will require the government to run primary budget surpluses (that is, excluding interest payments) in the neighborhood of 4 percent of gross domestic product. That means that if Greece defaulted, it could cut taxes or raise public spending substantially without needing to borrow.
The downside of default would be huge -- possible ejection from the euro system. That would be a calamity for Greece and, because of the risk of contagion, for the rest of the euro area as well. Nonetheless, if the EU offers Tsipras nothing, that's how things could turn out.
Therefore, in the end, the EU won't offer nothing. But the posturing on both sides needs to stop and discussions of a possible compromise need to start quickly, or Tsipras and the EU could talk themselves into the worst-case scenario they both want to avoid.
Outright debt forgiveness would be hard for Europe's leaders to sell to their own voters; like Tsipras, they've boxed themselves in. However, they can provide debt relief in many other ways. "Extend and pretend," as it's called, is relief by another name. Maturities could be stretched further. Debt-service costs could be cut again with concessionary interest rates, perhaps including a moratorium on payments. The creditors could tie debt service to Greece's growth rate -- the stronger its economy, the more it pays. Tsipras has already broached this last possibility.
The EU should also agree to modify Greece's supervised austerity program. Some of the projected primary surplus should be given back to Greek voters in the form of social spending.
Now that Tsipras has won his election, he needs to be less of a populist demagogue and more of a pragmatic leader. He should recognize the need for further structural economic reforms, and offer commitments in exchange for debt relief. As Reza Moghadam, former head of the International Monetary Fund's Europe department, notes in a column for the Financial Times, Syriza is an anti-establishment party. Despite its hard-left policy platform, it could be more open than its predecessors to breaking the grip of entrenched interests. Its election success can't be undone in any event. It's an opportunity worth exploring.
Does Greece deserve this new dispensation? It's a fair question, but there's no straightforward answer and it's largely beside the point. A new compromise on Greek debt is the best feasible outcome not just for Greece but also, in view of the risks, for Germany and the other EU countries. They just need to get on with it.
(Bloomberg)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just shows what a load of jellies we have in Brussells. They can't draw a line and mean it. In a word - pathetic. So the rest of the EU will have to pick up the tab for Greece ? That's you and me baby !
EU governments, with Germany in the lead, are saying that debt writedowns are out of the question. Debts are debts. Greece's newly elected leader, Alexis Tsipras, calls the current settlement "fiscal waterboarding" and says his country faces a humanitarian crisis. His government won't pay and wants much of the debt written off. Neither side is willing to give way.
What surprises me is that this all-or-nothing positioning takes anybody in.
Debts are debts? Please. Europe's governments have already provided debt relief to Greece. (In that process, private creditors saw their loans written down; most of what remains is owed to governments.) However, the plan hasn't worked. Greece's fiscal position was so bad that the haircuts, reschedulings and interest-rate concessions weren't sufficient to restore its creditworthiness. At the same time, thanks to slower-than-expected growth, the fiscal conditions tied to the settlement proved harsher than intended. Greek voters have just repudiated those terms.
In other words, the existing settlement has failed. It therefore needs to be revised. No conceptual revolution is required. This conclusion follows from the same kind of analysis that EU governments have already relied on.
For sure, granting additional debt relief has drawbacks -- just as there were drawbacks to granting debt relief in the first place. It sends a bad message; it encourages bad behavior in future; it will inflame resentment among voters in other EU countries. That's why it's a good idea, so far as possible, to make relief conditional on efforts to behave responsibly. But the likely consequences of any EU refusal to budge are much worse.
There's a serious risk that Greece will default unilaterally. This would not be in Greece's interests, but it's too close a call for comfort. The existing settlement will require the government to run primary budget surpluses (that is, excluding interest payments) in the neighborhood of 4 percent of gross domestic product. That means that if Greece defaulted, it could cut taxes or raise public spending substantially without needing to borrow.
The downside of default would be huge -- possible ejection from the euro system. That would be a calamity for Greece and, because of the risk of contagion, for the rest of the euro area as well. Nonetheless, if the EU offers Tsipras nothing, that's how things could turn out.
Therefore, in the end, the EU won't offer nothing. But the posturing on both sides needs to stop and discussions of a possible compromise need to start quickly, or Tsipras and the EU could talk themselves into the worst-case scenario they both want to avoid.
Outright debt forgiveness would be hard for Europe's leaders to sell to their own voters; like Tsipras, they've boxed themselves in. However, they can provide debt relief in many other ways. "Extend and pretend," as it's called, is relief by another name. Maturities could be stretched further. Debt-service costs could be cut again with concessionary interest rates, perhaps including a moratorium on payments. The creditors could tie debt service to Greece's growth rate -- the stronger its economy, the more it pays. Tsipras has already broached this last possibility.
The EU should also agree to modify Greece's supervised austerity program. Some of the projected primary surplus should be given back to Greek voters in the form of social spending.
Now that Tsipras has won his election, he needs to be less of a populist demagogue and more of a pragmatic leader. He should recognize the need for further structural economic reforms, and offer commitments in exchange for debt relief. As Reza Moghadam, former head of the International Monetary Fund's Europe department, notes in a column for the Financial Times, Syriza is an anti-establishment party. Despite its hard-left policy platform, it could be more open than its predecessors to breaking the grip of entrenched interests. Its election success can't be undone in any event. It's an opportunity worth exploring.
Does Greece deserve this new dispensation? It's a fair question, but there's no straightforward answer and it's largely beside the point. A new compromise on Greek debt is the best feasible outcome not just for Greece but also, in view of the risks, for Germany and the other EU countries. They just need to get on with it.
(Bloomberg)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Just shows what a load of jellies we have in Brussells. They can't draw a line and mean it. In a word - pathetic. So the rest of the EU will have to pick up the tab for Greece ? That's you and me baby !
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Hi Pat,
Debts are debts but business is business. If it is good business to right off the debt, that is what will happen. I have no illusions about the scruples of big business.
We may not see the reasons why the debt will be re-written but, if it happens then we can be sure that there will be a reason.
Nothing much surprises me anymore, except the originality of new ideas dreamed up by our political leaders.
Pat494
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I am sure you will be right BUT let's hope they don't give them any more credit as they have no intention of re-paying it.
Sadly they probably will. For how long can we afford to support these losers. Might sound harsh but the politicians are too wet to survive in this world imho as they waste our hard earned.
davidcraigson
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I seriously doubt any of that will happen. There might be noise made, but, at this point, it would be EXTREMELY difficult (and costly!) to break away.
Atilla
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I don't agree.
If I have to keep borrowing to service my debt and that debt is getting bigger whilst my income diminishes then what's in it for me?
We need a win win compromised scenario and I don't see that at the moment.
I like the idea of linking payback to growth. There is something that can be worked on there.
Atilla
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The ecb can just right a trillion euro bond, and buy it, and use the funny money (in bailouts) to write off any debts.
it's as easy as -------------------> 1,000,000,000,000
ABsolutely.
Euro will fall helping exports and importing inflation too.
Fabbo
Onwards and forwards with the euro either way
spinola
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Of course, they'd rather issue (and make sure surfs are indebted) their funny money on the slaves of nations, and when they can't pay, to force liquidate peoples real assets first, by using the illusion of settling their funny money account debts. Keep em on the brink of poverty and starvation and all that. Easier to control the sheeples that way .
Use funny money, to force liquidate and obtain REAL ASSETS. AKA rake in the slaves chips.
I guess it'll keep going as long as people are happy to accept ( and work for )credits, and as long as commercial peeps are happy to accept credit. The party goes on.
Just issue people credit.
Use funny money, to force liquidate and obtain REAL ASSETS. AKA rake in the slaves chips.
I guess it'll keep going as long as people are happy to accept ( and work for )credits, and as long as commercial peeps are happy to accept credit. The party goes on.
Just issue people credit.
spinola
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Welcome to the Bank of You !
Now, heres what could ignite the next capitalistic hedonistic rage..
Allow the public to issue credit using their own assets.
Example Mrs, Jones has a house valued at 300K this allows her to create and loan out (or use ) 3 million.
We all become bankers, create credit on our assets , directly, and cut out the banks ! ha !
It may not last long, but....... worth the experiment , I think , to observe how humankind handles it.
Get this, we print our own individual credit notes , at home , directly on our own printers. Yeah baby ... welcome to the Bank Of You !
Now, heres what could ignite the next capitalistic hedonistic rage..
Allow the public to issue credit using their own assets.
Example Mrs, Jones has a house valued at 300K this allows her to create and loan out (or use ) 3 million.
We all become bankers, create credit on our assets , directly, and cut out the banks ! ha !
It may not last long, but....... worth the experiment , I think , to observe how humankind handles it.
Get this, we print our own individual credit notes , at home , directly on our own printers. Yeah baby ... welcome to the Bank Of You !
Atilla
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Of course, they'd rather issue (and make sure surfs are indebted) their funny money on the slaves of nations, and when they can't pay, to force liquidate peoples real assets first, by using the illusion of settling their funny money account debts. Keep em on the brink of poverty and starvation and all that. Easier to control the sheeples that way .
Use funny money, to force liquidate and obtain REAL ASSETS. AKA rake in the slaves chips.
I guess it'll keep going as long as people are happy to accept ( and work for )credits, and as long as commercial peeps are happy to accept credit. The party goes on.
Just issue people credit.
Same as what the yanks did to Latin America with debt. Enslave and reign supreme
Party goes on... Don't stop the music!
Pat494
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Same as what the yanks did to Latin America with debt. Enslave and reign supreme
Party goes on... Don't stop the music!
A sort of Mugabe economics where you print higher and higher value bank notes until they are worthless. He was up in the billions per note.
All those bitcoin, seashell currencies seem to have gone very quiet of late.
Atilla
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Well not really what I meant.
International banks lent money to juntas in Latin America and suppressed the people in the name of stamping out communism. Some countries were not able to export sufficiently to even service debt let alone pay it back. So the debt just gets bigger and the people get owned.
If one objected, they were 'obviously' a commy and were tortured along with family, tribe et al.
They weren't called terrorists back then but guerrillas if I recall correctly. :cheesy:
What if any will be the consequencies of Greece getting a Socialist Govt and exiting the euro ?
Wow. Where to begin?
In my opinion, it’ll be disastrous for Greece. They have been going through painful structural changes, which I believe were necessary. However, the majority of the public don’t understand this, viewing things short term. Somebody promises the world, they take it.
Public spending is inefficient. It’ll saddle Greece with debt, which will become much more expensive as lenders won’t trust the government not to default. I think this will result in Greece being forced to leave the Euro – Europe can’t and won’t bail them out forever, particularly with talk and risk of default and/or re-negotiation of debt terms. I simply don’t believe what the socialists are promising is possible, it’ll result in economic catastrophe and bankruptcy for Greece. Euro exit will come before a huge weakening of their new currency, followed by bankruptcy – and cheap holidays for the rest of us. That is, unless the socialist government gets real and returns to ‘austerity’, limits public spending and encourages private enterprise (unlikely).
Which nobel-prize winning economist was it that said ‘If socialists understood economics, they wouldn’t be socialists’?
Pat494
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Same as what the yanks did to Latin America with debt. Enslave and reign supreme
Party goes on... Don't stop the music!
Oh Shylock where art thou ?
counter_violent
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Same as what the yanks did to Latin America with debt. Enslave and reign supreme
Party goes on... Don't stop the music!
Never a day of reckoning with Keynesian economics is there !
Atilla
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That' now is very funny because everyone can clearly see how well monetarists control the money supply, inflation and the level of economic activity.
Yes very effective indeed.
I can see what they mean by the elasticity of the Ms is more responsive to interest rates than fiscal policy! Which is why after billions and trillions of QE and negative interest rates we have deflation. Da da da da daaaaa! (PS. I got this one wrong too
)G8 stuff CV. Yoda man.
Addenda: So what's this geezer talkin about then???
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-31030425
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