The Korean crisis might bump the price up a bit, especially if Ill let's one off. Otherwise a drift lower. Must surely hit bottom around 1450 ?
trade the price based on the pricing itself rather than some nefarious reasoning regardless of how logical it might be at the time....topical news driven reasoning has already seen many traders lose a bundle especially those adding "because it's cheap(er)"
if the news was a driver up-stream you could argue that gold would be much lower than it is now because the news is making it more bouyant than it would without the news....this morning i read some whacky reasoning on the decline from mine closures to stronger equities.....well, mine closures are always happening (only 1 in 3000 goes into production in the US) and equities were on the rise since mar 09 so how that could be measured is purely guess work just like all the anecdotal reasoning......all this merely means is, trade the price not the opines......ignore all the emotive logic and theories, simply trade the price and keep sizing appropriate....it's not now, nor has it ever been, an investment, just a tradeable commodity
keeping a wider time-frame pov, as a starting point, might make a difference each time you consider your opinion.....getting out with a small loss now means having cash later and being in cash gives you time to think, at least, give yourself a balanced approached......imho
here's the kicker for anecdotal reasoning: all the forward looking news stuff is already written into the price by the commercial and money managers, so, maybe some diligence about them might make a difference.....afterall, how well-informed can a retail "investor" be? Keep in mind that the money managers have to be trend following, which means they go from being-long-to-exiting-to-being-short, theyre enforcing the trend by dollar weight, so, retailers reasoning that some fat kid born into rocket dynasty isnt really quite in the same ball park, that doesnt mean a rogue event wont cause a tradeable bounce, but really, when you look at the recent news driven reason for the bounce last week that was used to sell into, then, right there, breaking those crucial levels was the key so if that's true, the next bounce will carry the same implications regardless of the excuse for bigger players use against....i've seen a lot of fundamentalist bulls recently use long-term charts to justify that now is the time to buy more in this "consolidation" period......consolidations can dig very deep and have to to make price be cheap to attract long term liqudity, the question you might want to ask is at what point does the capital, that's already in place for several years, think that a decade bull market is long enough?
at the current decline in volume size and momo i'll have to stop trying to trade like i did this morning......we're at the 'point of recognition' is my best guess with a lot more of the same to come and we're likely to see those money managers join the selling party from longs to flat to short......
lack-buster year more like.....and not many lulz for the bulls
