Gold 2013 ......a lack lustre year?

i think we'll need a cash close below 1338's to nail the lid shut for the bulls for this time around but that will only cement with a cash close below where the news fomc release came and allow that swinging back thru the news level is a normal course for trends to make and that such an action would be very bullish only in that trend would be moving based on internal drivers and not news induced as news is part of the trend, news does not make the trend...

that means retesting the weekly lows if we cannot muster short covering energy at the fomc release low.....no support from fund money is not a great tip to be long....

.....but, it's a commodity

trending up on news is not bullish if trend comes back down on it's own intrinsic pressures, in other words; bids swamp offers in induced energy spike and offers swamp the bid with (down)trend...it's an important distinction

imho
 
dont look like we'll get a close above the 1338 cash level.....i'm holding my sells over the weekend....i suspect we'll at least cover the fomc release level 1297ish...silver is more than 2/3 the way there already....

what may have been percieved to be dovish for both equities and metals may now become "theyre-not-tapering-because-nothings-working mindset.....exit buy-side liquidity...

money managers are already sell en mode otherwise this current sell the strength move wouldnt be happening, imho
 
Joules MM1 said:
..... only cement with a cash close below where the news fomc release came and allow that swinging back thru the news level is a normal course for trends to make and that such an action would be very bullish only in that trend would be moving based on internal drivers and not news .

.

the diff between that which is impulsive bid/offer and news-induced energy release slash opportunity to fade..it's an important distinction
Click to expand...

nearterm target for silver 20.47's gold 1297's
i'm holding open sells thru the futes close

here's a quick technical look that many bulls will be looking for:
there's an (arguably of course) an inverted H/S's pattern forming
that would sit well with my idea that if the fomc zone is covered on
current impulsive selling and then reverses it would
provided a big swing high opportunity within what is
now (arguably still) a secular bear

giving :-0 an upside target of 1755's bringing price back into rotatonal
peaks where previous fomc rejections occurred (jeez, we're getting a theme here :cool:)

in this event: short sellers
Talking Heads said:
Qu'est-ce que c'est
fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa fa far better
Run run run run run run run away
Click to expand...

inspite of selling from fund managers this commodity can gather an amazing rally so i wouldnt dismiss the idea out of hand and many (dis)quiet(ed) bulls with "the-fundamentals-havent-changed" song still want to be heard ....
 

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Joules, why did you draw the 100% there? To make the 50% match up with something, or am I missing something about that 100% level?
Click to expand...

the 50% level is automated in the ratio of the platform..... incidental


....the school of thought i have found to be useful is that the 100%x100% L to H must be of the head tip to neckline regardless of the
angle of the neckline...this means the neckline can severely slope up or down for the same set
and this allows the measure to be analogous to the shape ("shape" being: what traders have done is likely to be equal-to or reflective in the
opposite direction therefor the measure needs to adhere to that activity as close as possible) as is my understanding by use

....this also captures the time component in the same way that ending diagonal wedges need to be projected from the horizontal axis of time of
where the wedge began.....so this means the diagonal neckline can be any degree as it is part of the whole rather than
forcing the shape into a measure it is forcing the measure to err measure the shape....
there are traders who draw "tip of shoulder to tip of head" and as round-a-boutish as H&S can be the tip of head to neckline x 2 has (often) proven results
again, as is my understanding by use

takes a few goes to see these....and i'm quick to let them go when price gives me diff messages in the lower time frames...the larger time frame you see here is merely to get a handle on what many "chartists" will be looking for....they get paid good salaries to draw that stuff....and then go on twitter and get favourited for being a career analyst..... :eek:

thanks, mate :)
 
in the following link (hat tip Fari Hamzei) is a sentiment measure, i dont know the sample size,
which would fluctuate....anyways, note the swing from uber bullish to considerably non-plus, gold

i think we need to see an extreme lean to bearish to auger a large short cover move...background stuff

http://www.findingtechnicals.com/
 
roleypoley

BU0XG7ICUAEWwCb.png


of the two upside targets for this intra play the first looks like it'll hold or needs to be broken on significant bid...failure here leaves open the door for base-build other wise an a-ha sell is coming......longs need to be insured
 
silver finds small bids ......rotates....gold dragged upwards...mud!
 

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Joules MM1 said:
silver finds small bids ......rotates....gold dragged upwards...mud!
Click to expand...

gold tested that level "to hold" .....silver is rolling up a tiny trendline and gold has adhered to an hourly line.....that tells me we got some chartists doing some buying......

nah....just guessing....:whistling

anyways......where's the bid?.....

i think it's temporary uphill and james hunt downhill
 
Joules MM1 said:
gold tested that level "to hold" .....silver is rolling up a tiny trendline and gold has adhered to an hourly line.....that tells me we got some chartists doing some buying......

nah....just guessing....:whistling

anyways......where's the bid?.....

i think it's temporary uphill and james hunt downhill
Click to expand...

fwiw I think next move is going to be up. (y)

It is at a resistance point and trending down but feel market will attempt to take out the bears first.
 
chartists: rabbits in need of hats
 

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What I know about gold is that it's highly depends of the world financial situation. Major economic problems in Europe, the Obama's social programs in USA, Chinese economy crisis of overproduction, instability in Middle East have been pushing down the price for gold. However, currently we can see the recovery calls from EU and USA. In particular both USA and UK economics are expected to grow in 2013 and 2014. The Swiss central bank just recently announced the intention to support CHF, which can also mean increasing of the gold reserve
 
thanks, A :)
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todays Twiggs email: (link) http://goldstocksforex.com/2013/09/26/dollar-and-treasuries-likely-to-lift-gold/

if youre not a (free) subscriber it's worth the time to read especially as he occasionally requotes other notable writers ....maybe you wouldnt trade off his/their work, even so, def some interesting insights from his experience

#DX #USD #GOLD #TNX
 
we find a bid but where does the momo kick in?
 

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