Gold 2013 ......a lack lustre year?

part of what drove the POG to 251 in 1999/2000 was that forward orders accepted lower and lower prices (and POG is like any positive feedback loop), add to that margin calls and many producers realised that they could hedge themselves into bankruptcy (like averaging down a losing stock position)

once the sell trend is underway, mechanical weight is added to the trend + money managers are trend followers so they'll open sell positions....

what fundamentalists argue works in their favour works against them, too

some A-ha moments where "investors" who thought QE/inflation would bring high(er) prices are getting out and where "investors" thought taking QE away would reverse the trend to up are getting out ......so hard to have your cake and eat it too :cry: ......doesn't matter if there's deflation/inflation/stagflation/screwflation ....none of them can fight the trend sentiment once it kicks in and the "investors' have had ample time to use all their reasoning....even as prices began to fly downhill people like Jim Sinclaire are arguing to hold and buy more, while people in Asia rush out to pay full retail for jewellery that instantly lost 50% of its value upon receiving the receipt

again, this particular auction process merely serves to prove that emotional logic drives price no matter who the bid/offer comes from

of course, the question is who is soaking up that selling? mostly it'll be the large commercials....even so, price can gap and fall on low volume, so waiting for price to swing to exit at a better price might not work either....the train has left the station

on the upside, for traders, the sudden squeezes will provide plenty of price length to play......booyah

Who sells gold? I do not know, but probably, all these sales come from Western central banks ... maybe it's the Fed that wants to move down the price to buy gold back and return it to Germany.
 
Who sells gold? I do not know, but probably, all these sales come from Western central banks ... maybe it's the Fed that wants to move down the price to buy gold back and return it to Germany.

given that you don't know who's selling (not that you need to know ;) ) how do you derive that probability?
 
there are conspiracies on the way up (which "causes" price to ascend) and there are conspiracies on the way down (which "causes price to decline).....

how come no one ever says gold is another commodity of supply and demand

and even if there true conspiracies no one knows exactly what extent or when there's an impact on price because the basic tenet applies: correlation is not causation

if it applies in a 30 second bar, it can apply to the 30 min bar and 3 hour bar......ipso facto domo arigato, focus on the price-oh never mind the bollox.......
 
given that you don't know who's selling (not that you need to know ;) ) how do you derive that probability?

When the cash is finished, then you usually start selling your family jewels, and in Europe and the U.S. there are several ingots.
 

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silver will support golds break out at 19.52

silver has a slightly 'better' profile in the current bounce....i wont have any measures until we see either a retest of the low or a retrace for longs to establish more positions...with the commercials in heavily now we might get a good swing upside that will carry enough structure and momo to convince everyone the uptrend is back on.... in the southern session both metals remain bouyant while equities slump ...a buildup for this weeks ISM but more so the NFP's on friday with light volumes due to july 4th hols in the US

shaawiiing badder
 

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bulls might take some heart from this pov

Twiggs Money Flow has clear divergence buying signals on the local XSO (Aussie Small Ordinaries Index)

Asia rallies but ASX meets resistance | Gold, Stocks & Forex

there is a strong probability that the major XJO (S&P200) index is now about to rise with the XSO which they usually correlate in a healthy bulk market (due to Australia's weight in resource sector) even tho recently they have been constantly divergent and with the AUD/USD taking a small thrashing money from o/seas will definitely chase cheap gold stocks that see many at or below fair value....allthis may support a buoyant gold price as the sector regains some shine......at least it gives a small heads-up on bias and alleviate global negative sentiment
 
#287
shaawiiing badder

closed out swing longs today 1263....consider re-entering if metal can break ratio at 1270 with momo and note that silver did not back up the gold move....

a northern session close below 1254's would go someway to calling the bounce over....but a few hours left until spycho NFP's so whippy is as whoopy does
 
And now let’s see what happens to gold on the 20-days moving average of 1310.
 
several internal ratios feell away or disintegrated very qickly.....hanging on for the sell ride
 
failing to break the first upside ratio 1269 hourly basis the internals began to fall apart very quickly.....still need to get the close below 1254 in the northern session to cement the high for this round is in the bag......
 

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ZeroHedge said:
Oppenheimer: "Time To Cover All Shorts In Gold And Gold Miners" Because "Gold Stocks Are So Bad, They're Good"
Link Oppenheimer: "Time To Cover All Shorts In Gold And Gold Miners" Because "Gold Stocks Are So Bad, They're Good" | Zero Hedge

Mineweb said:
Top 10 gold miners face 2013 earnings nightmare + Top 10 gold miners – 2012 production and 2013 guidance
link Top 10 gold miners face 2013 earnings nightmare - GOLD ANALYSIS - Mineweb.com Mineweb

WalterMurphyAssoc. said:
Commodities: Gold’s 22.9% setback was its largest quarterly loss in history.
Nonetheless, the most recent move to new bear market lows was not confirmed by a number of short term indicators.
This, plus the fact that we are counting June’s sell-off as a lower degree
C-wave, suggests that gold is moving into position for what could be its best rally since last October’s top.
link Market Pulse - Monthly Bullets
 
selling nice rejection with common accounts showing cfd's at 71% long too....

wont be precious about this....price needs to get thru/session close below 1274 to cull the upside
 

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the odds of coming back up and retesting yest HOD is good based on the low volume turnover even tho (in orthodox parlance) the sell was a clean set of moves, looked impulsive....price quickly came back in the range of 1274's ....

more of the same chop.....which is nice ;)
 
Nothing to do, the resistance of 1300 is confirmed as an insurmountable barrier for the gold. It 'obvious that a new liquidity outlook is needed in the market to push the quotes above resistances.
 
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