Gold 2013 ......a lack lustre year?

[ZaBu]

Just to understand where gold is at the moment: 222 Years Of Gold, Wars, Inflation, Economies, And Presidents | Zero Hedge

Double-top? Prices might be suggesting this.

 

[Joules MM1]

ssshhhh......listen.....can you hear that? .....between the hiss of mosquitos it's another guru typing a blog....

:whistling anyways....very slow going....rather than wax-on this is a small phase to build for a quick purge.....thursday morning fomc statement/rate/forecast....mister whoopy time

 

[Joules MM1]

part ii

come captain ramius, pings to sell...

 

[Joules MM1]

looking at silver daily, hard to get bullish

 

[Joules MM1]

daily follow-thru targets (for mine) are 1315's and 1271's

not being precious about those numbers..

 

[kszt]

What do you think, where is going to be gold's long term low?

I have found an interesting chart about historical gold price:

Red: CPI adjusted gold price
Black: nominal gold price
Gold peaked at cca $850 in 1980 which would equal $2500 today... So gold's previous peak is quite far from the one in 1980 if we compare peaks by real value. I think this should not mean too much since price was driven mostly by speculation in both cases. (Anyway source of the chart / article about gold's long term price is here)
I have heard from some economics that gold's price follows CPI over long term so either inflation must become very high or gold price has to go very low.
What do you think about gold's long term outlooks?

 

[Joules MM1]

mister whippy time soon enough

 

[cablemonster]

mister whippy time soon enough

nice scalp but I fully expect to see Gold above $1500 in the coming months, this is just a shakeout and the big boys are long.

 

[ZaBu]

What do you think, where is going to be gold's long term low?

I have found an interesting chart about historical gold price:

Red: CPI adjusted gold price
Black: nominal gold price
Gold peaked at cca $850 in 1980 which would equal $2500 today... So gold's previous peak is quite far from the one in 1980 if we compare peaks by real value. I think this should not mean too much since price was driven mostly by speculation in both cases. (Anyway source of the chart / article about gold's long term price is here)
I have heard from some economics that gold's price follows CPI over long term so either inflation must become very high or gold price has to go very low.
What do you think about gold's long term outlooks?

I don't have a long term outlook on gold. Both the inflationary and deflationary arguments make sense to me and I don't have a strong view on which is more likely. Things may even settle out somewhere in the middle although this seems less likely than the other scenarios. This would require central bankers and politicians to get things exactly right and have mastered the markets - I have no confidence in that. I expect them to make a mess of things one way or another and the market will do it's thing.

My lack of conviction in the inflation/deflation direction is why I am trying to trade gold at the moment. I am forced to trade price because I don't have a particular view or forecast clouding my judgement.

 

[Atilla]

I don't have a long term outlook on gold. Both the inflationary and deflationary arguments make sense to me and I don't have a strong view on which is more likely. Things may even settle out somewhere in the middle although this seems less likely than the other scenarios. This would require central bankers and politicians to get things exactly right and have mastered the markets - I have no confidence in that. I expect them to make a mess of things one way or another and the market will do it's thing.

My lack of conviction in the inflation/deflation direction is why I am trying to trade gold at the moment. I am forced to trade price because I don't have a particular view or forecast clouding my judgement.

I have gold between 1200-1600 with a mid-price of 1400-1450.

I believe it will oscillate in this range until it finds new value and direction.

I do not believe anyone knows what the true value of gold is today.

Typical to true form its all highly speculative :|

 

[Joules MM1]

nice scalp but I fully expect to see Gold above $1500 in the coming months, this is just a shakeout and the big boys are long.

....say "when" .....

note the early morning (NY) 'rally' barely made the 50% of the previous swing for gold spot....and paper sells

 

[Joules MM1]

review ....thus far the ratio is on track to play out....
even with Commercials doing the bulk of soaking supply,
now, we'll likely see the introduction of trend-following managers opening sells adding to pressure....

you were here:

we might even see a historic crossing of contracts between large spec and commercials

 

[Joules MM1]

1271 next level ....rare time to load full size available and ride the hog....hoink hoink


(bull comments: crickets)

 

[elisab]

And now we are facing the test of truth for gold, 1280-1320...resist or end of the bull market.

 

[counter_violent]

whole of the commods markets speaking with one voice, nah shouting from the rooftops...dump that sh1t !

 

[cablemonster]

a mere blip on an island of disorder.

 

[brewski1984]

Fill your boots.

 

[Atilla]

Fill your boots.

You go first

 

[brewski1984]

You go first

Couldn't lend me 20k could ya?

 

[Atilla]

Couldn't lend me 20k could ya?

Don't worry just hang on.

Benj1981 suggested all time highs in gold by September 1st 2013.

Strap your self in and cross your legs I reckon!!!