Best Thread GBP/USD Breakout

[HawkTrader]

Gamma - yep have a target and stick to it which I do quite well. Maybe trailing stops could be the answer? i dunno i sat here trying to fix a strategy that works lol !!

Well what I do depends on the higher time frames. For example, if I see Cable in a downtrend on the Daily but the overnight range is breaking up, I will be happy with a quick 20 pip profit with quick movement of stop to breakeven. If on the other hand, Cable is in an uptrend, or has just hit a very very strong support line and the overnight range breaks up, I will sometimes trail my stop loosely behind by 10-20 points hoping to ride it untill the US session or even longer and be happy to give price room to retrace a little bit. Unless of course there is big news out in the morning then I will just trail loosely and then TP 15 minutes before the news.

 

[Claudia123]

Well what I do depends on the higher time frames. For example, if I see Cable in a downtrend on the Daily but the overnight range is breaking up, I will be happy with a quick 20 pip profit with quick movement of stop to breakeven. If on the other hand, Cable is in an uptrend, or has just hit a very very strong support line and the overnight range breaks up, I will sometimes trail my stop loosely behind by 10-20 points hoping to ride it untill the US session or even longer and be happy to give price room to retrace a little bit. Unless of course there is big news out in the morning then I will just trail loosely and then TP 15 minutes before the news.

Interesting. I must admit I always get out before the the news. I only use the 60 min bar for the morning break out. I guess we all have similar/different strategies if that makes sense as Rumpled One would say 'KEEP STINGING THEM BANKS !!'

 

[HawkTrader]

Interesting. I must admit I always get out before the the news. I only use the 60 min bar for the morning break out. I guess we all have similar/different strategies if that makes sense as Rumpled One would say 'KEEP STINGING THEM BANKS !!'

Yeah, I actually forgot about the GDP news release yesterday at 9:30am and I ended up with +59 point profit instead of +80. Could have been worse!

I definitely think it's worth incorporating some sort of trailing stop method into your trading plan. How about trailing under each new 5m swing high/low, that way you won't give much profit back but also you could catch big trends?

 

[neil]

Re: GBP/USD Breakout Foredof

Claudia, do you take the high/lows of the asian session (eg 1200-0600 UK) or just the high/low of the 6am bar?

As that was quite a large range 0f 84 point sbetween the high low of the asain session.

Thanks

Hi Foredog
Have a look at the midnight bar of Cable etc and note any clean breaks above/below. Might be able to grab 20 points a time or more if you take partial profits?
and
Since you like Inside bars - try the 4 hour time frames.
Good luck

 

[neil]

Cable overnight - hourly

Nice break once again.

 

[gamma]

Hi Owen,
Problem with using a trailing stop on such a small time frame is, you always get spikes that knock you out and then continue in the direction you took in the first palce.

 

[gamma]

Re: GBP/USD Breakout Foredof

the midnight bar of Cable etc and note any clean breaks above/below

Hi Neil,
Could you please elaborate on the above for my benefit and others, possibly

When you say midnight bar are you referring to the 12am 12:59 close ?

And the clean breaks are we looking for spikes etc?

Please excuse me if it sounds like a silly request.

 

[HawkTrader]

Hi Owen,
Problem with using a trailing stop on such a small time frame is, you always get spikes that knock you out and then continue in the direction you took in the first palce.

Of course, but ever since I started trading I have been watching the 5m Cable and I think I've developed some sort of 'bond' with it... Sounds silly I know but one can usually tell when the trend will change, if you keep your trailing stop 15-20 points behind you might end up with a lot of break evens... a few small losses... but it's that massive 60-100 pip win once a week or two that you are looking for. Some people don't like that and want a big win %, I prefer somewhere in between.

 

[trendie]

Hi Foredog - i take the high/low of the 1200-0600 GMT but tend to ignore any spikes like on the 5 am bar today. My entry today got filled at 656.4 and hit target in 2 minutes !!

you're a role-model, Claudia!

yes, the charts have been kind to us all on the GU this week.
and your habit of taking pips and switching off is probably the way to go.

my experience is that if you stay at the screen for too long, you run the risk of giving away your easy gains drip by drip by ill-judged moves further into the day.

so once you hit your daily target, walk away is a good strat, but you will kick yourself if its a 100 pipper move, and you only nabbed 20.

perhaps you use your breakout method, but then trail to a stop?

happy Thanksgiving, american or not!

 

[neil]

Re: GBP/USD Breakout Foredof

Hi Neil,
Could you please elaborate on the above for my benefit and others, possibly

When you say midnight bar are you referring to the 12am 12:59 close ?

And the clean breaks are we looking for spikes etc?

Please excuse me if it sounds like a silly request.

I am experimenting with the close at 12night bar (11pm - 12night)
Spikes? - haven't thought of them yet but will get round to it. This is all new work in progress for me so if anyone wants to throw in their thoughts etc please feel free to do so. I am still a novice at trading so a more experienced outlook would be welcomed.

 

[Claudia123]

you're a role-model, Claudia!

yes, the charts have been kind to us all on the GU this week.
and your habit of taking pips and switching off is probably the way to go.

my experience is that if you stay at the screen for too long, you run the risk of giving away your easy gains drip by drip by ill-judged moves further into the day.

so once you hit your daily target, walk away is a good strat, but you will kick yourself if its a 100 pipper move, and you only nabbed 20.

perhaps you use your breakout method, but then trail to a stop?

happy Thanksgiving, american or not!

Thanks - I kicked myself few times this week !! But then I got my target lol. So - trailing stop has to be considered though. The worst thing in life is seeing a winning trade turn into a loss. Or is it taking a profit then seeing the trade go 100 point further.
lol maybe need a poll??

 

[trendie]

Re: GBP/USD Breakout Foredof

I am experimenting with the close at 12night bar (11pm - 12night)
Spikes? - haven't thought of them yet but will get round to it. This is all new work in progress for me so if anyone wants to throw in their thoughts etc please feel free to do so. I am still a novice at trading so a more experienced outlook would be welcomed.

rather than time of day (midnight), neil, are you looking at the opening range breakout of the japanese session?
would this make it a more logical reasoning to determine which bar to trade, in same way as the London breakout is traded?

and thus also the US opening range?

and when backtesting you have to account for Daylight savings time! so, sometimes you have to look at one particular hour, and other times you have to look back or forward one hour.

hope you grabbed those easy GU pips. its coasting into weekend mode for me. :cheesy:

 

[neil]

Thanks Trendie for your thoughts. Yes, Cable was good again. I am off now to enjoy the rest of the day. No trading tomorrow for me. See you all next week

 

[GumRai]

Hello Claudia,
I'd just like to be clear, because I'm not absolutely sure of your strategy.
You trade the cable and note the high and low of the period from midnight to 7AM Uk time.
You set a stop sell at the low and a stop buy at the high.
Take profits at + 20 pips
Stoploss at -20 pips.
Is that it?
Do you take the spread into account. For example the charts are the bid price and if you place a stop buy, do you add the 3 pip spread. If you don't the trade will be triggered 3 pips below the high.

Thanks and I;m happy that you are doing well.

Gumrai

 

[woolley]

Hello Claudia,
I'd just like to be clear, because I'm not absolutely sure of your strategy.
You trade the cable and note the high and low of the period from midnight to 7AM Uk time.
You set a stop sell at the low and a stop buy at the high.
Take profits at + 20 pips
Stoploss at -20 pips.
Is that it?
Do you take the spread into account. For example the charts are the bid price and if you place a stop buy, do you add the 3 pip spread. If you don't the trade will be triggered 3 pips below the high.

Thanks and I;m happy that you are doing well.

Gumrai

looks good in back testing. so do you just take 1 trade a day?

 

[Claudia123]

Hello Claudia,
I'd just like to be clear, because I'm not absolutely sure of your strategy.
You trade the cable and note the high and low of the period from midnight to 7AM Uk time.
You set a stop sell at the low and a stop buy at the high.
Take profits at + 20 pips
Stoploss at -20 pips.
Is that it?
Do you take the spread into account. For example the charts are the bid price and if you place a stop buy, do you add the 3 pip spread. If you don't the trade will be triggered 3 pips below the high.

Thanks and I;m happy that you are doing well.

Gumrai

Hi - ja that's it but do take the spread into account. So target is 20 stop is 20. Very simple. My chart is actually set at mid price - I draw a line at 7 am when it breaks I buy/sell. So easy lol.

 

[Claudia123]

looks good in back testing. so do you just take 1 trade a day?

One trade a day

 

[Claudia123]

If you haven't all ready done so have a look at theoldrumpledones thread - posts some good trades/charts and also has great sense of humour. (Don't think he likes banks)

 

[woolley]

20 pips by 7 05am today was good! do you not trade any moreafter that?

 

[Claudia123]

20 pips by 7 05am today was good! do you not trade any moreafter that?

If get 100 points on Monday I wont trade the rest of the week. Might sound mad but that's me. Have a target get it hit then relax.