Gambling?

[suggy]

Hi all

Waiting for my account to clear with fins so still on a simulator atm. Have been doing 'ok' recently and making enough points to satisfy my beginners ego. However, I still can't shake the feeling that a lot of it is down to luck and I'm making these points despite, not because of, my 'skill'. After all it is a gamble that we take every position we open. Was wondering if everyone else still gets this feeling of uncertainty when considering their trades?

 

[Helenqu]

If you mean gamble in the sense of not knowing what the outcome will be when you enter a trade yes. BUT the difference is that you try to put the odds in your favour by using some sort of strategy (exactly as professional gamblers do). An amateur gambler acts without a plan and a system and will lose his pennies very fast Maybe you have an internalised strategy already but you haven't recognised it?

Or it could be beginners luck!

 

[options]

Oh Suggy, never say gamble to a trader.

No. You will find that when you trade for real. You will win less or lose more than you are doing now. Are the demo's rigged by the sb's?
Well the correct answer is no of course not. It's exactly the same as the real thing...
No. It's not.
The prices you get on the front page are different to the 'real' trading prices you deal at.
The sb's will claim some sort of delay is in force. (Then surely this is some sort of misrepresentation.)
Okay then, the FSA will interfere.
Nah, They are okay with it. The sb's are paying a fortune in income tax (of your money) why rock the boat.

Trade the sb's by swinging, but open a real account if daytrading.
And if sb'ing watch any stops. They can hit them when the price never goes anywhere near it and claim market volatility

 

[dolton]

[
Trade the sb's by swinging, but open a real account if daytrading.
And if sb'ing watch any stops. They can hit them when the price never goes anywhere near it and claim market volatility [/B]

Two rules when setting stops perhaps:

[1] Always set stops by phone, not via the SB screen.

[2] You have two options when setting the stop, make up your mind before using the phone and say them:

(a) "To me" This invites the SB to stop you out when their spread hits the mark.....Options theory.

(b) "Screen" This requires the SB to use the stop based on the sreen price and should prevent the possible ealy stopping of a trade/gamble.....

My opinion obviously, but borne out by experience using City Index.

Hope this helps

 

[Trader333]

Suggy,

I would advise that you record every trade that you make including the reasons why you entered the trade, how you managed it and why you closed it. I do this for every trade I make and then analyse the successes and the losses to determine if I had done what I should have and if not why not. I do all of this on an simple Excel spreadsheet. If I have not followed my trading plan I then highlight what I didnt do right and this reminds me when I place my next trade to not do it again.

Dolton,

You can edit a post you have previously made by clicking on the edit button at the bottom of the post.


Paul

 

[suggy]

yes I keep meaning to start a log book. I was not aware that simulators were different to the real prices, but I was prepared to lose more than I was on the simulator due to the psychological factors which I haven't had to deal with yet i.e losing my money

dolton, I have never come across those terms before. Are they universally recognized?

Helen, I do have a rough system, but keep forcing the trades. Must develop more patience.

Thanks for your replies.

BTW, any susperstitious persons not trading today?



the same thing that happened to doltons message appeared to happen to me. I wrote the message, pressed submit, but it only put 1/2 of it on. Any ideas?

 

[dolton]

Suggy.........Next trade when setting your stop.....give it a try
as noted I use this method......not enough time I,m afraid to fiddle around with log books and records.....If /when the stop is hit by the SB, there is enough data floating around the net to confirm screen prices and "advise" the SB ..........as I say never never ask for stops "to me" always request screen stops ..OK!!

IMHO

 

[Trader333]

Suggy,

If only half your post comes up then click "edit" and finish typing then click "save" and your done. You can also delete entire posts if you want.

Personally if I didnt record all my trades I know that I would start to trade outside of my own rules and system. So for me it is an enforcement of trading discipline but it is each to their own.


Paul

 

[stevem12]

Suggy,

Technically trading is gambling, as is all forms of speculation. But as the most excellent Helen said, you can limit your level of risk with a plan . Did you here about the gambler who missed the 20/1 winner, because he`d bet ALL his money on the previous loser?
No-one really knows what is going to happen next. But we do know at certain times history DOES repeat itself.
If you kill losses stone dead AND force yourself to let profits run, you can make money. This would be true if the markets were random, which they are not (BARRRR BARRRR) thats supposed to be a sheep by the way
Steve

 

[PurplePerson]

Suggy - it helps to accept, from the outset, that you are going to lose more often than you win. Too many beginners assume that this is merely a phase which they will emerge from, and that once they get into the swing of things they will be expert enough to win more often than they lose. It is far safer to assume that you will always lose more often than win, and to plan accordingly. If you do get to a level where wins outnumber losses, that's great. But don't bank on it. For most traders (successful ones included) it never happens.

Overall, it doesn't matter if losses out-NUMBER wins - as long as they don't out-WEIGH them.

The smaller those losses are when you ruthlessly stamp on them, the more of them you can comfortably accommodate without spoiling your gains. Whenever you see losses emerging, swat them like flies - and get to relish doing so! Never give them the benefit of the doubt. Kill em.

Edit: None of this relates to your opening question really. I wandered off-topic .

 

[Skimbleshanks]

If trading is gambling, then I'm a professional gambler!

If you know what you're doing, apply sound money management rules, have the ability to manage risk properly, then there's no way that trading is gambling. If however you do not implement any of the above, then trading is gambling.

 

[warm_machine]

Trading should never be a gamble. You should only enter the market when you are completely comfortable with all the variables under consideration. Your trading plan will then take care of the rest.
This plan must allow for every eventuality (I mean all, however likely/unlikely you feel they may be, because sooner will eventually become later). It must prove itself to be profitable, despite the significant hurdles thrown at it. Work within your means and stay disciplined. Remember, you are not looking for infallibility, as risk cannot ever be completely nullified (given that there's never a perfect hedge), just something that works.

 

[stevem12]

Guys,
god forbid I should ever be accused of being pedantic cause my wife would never suggest such a thing, but my copy of the oxford dictionary says gamble / Take risks, risky undertaking/play games of chance for money stakes.
That sounds like trading to me. All I`m saying is we take risks, controlled risks, but they still have a chance of not working.By chance I mean conditional probabilities,not luck. I`m not trying to suggest anyone is just blindly taking positions for no reason. Although I was very good at doing that in the early days, had it off pat in fact!
Steve

 

[oatman]

I remember someone else on this forum who was into sheep

 

[genti]

Might be a good idea to change the title of the thread from Gambling to something else.

i dont think we are gambling, we are spending a loot of time analyzing and also have a risk management in place.

Regards
Genti

 

[Trader333]

My dictionary definition of gambling pretty much says that gambling is the placement of money on an event where the outcome has more than one possibility.

By that definition we are all gamblers. It's as if it's a four letter word when I just dont see any problem with it. Insurance companies gamble that you will end up giving them more money than they have to pay out to you. Every area of life is a gamble of sorts and yes we have been able to reduce the chance of certain events happening. But that doesnt mean it wont it just means that, from a gambling standpoint, you have stacked as many of the odds in your favour as possible.

Cheers

Paul

(Professional Gambler)

 

[stevem12]

"You take a chance every time you get out of bed, cross the road or stick your face in the fan"-Frank Drebin Police Squad

 

[martinwalker]

Gambling is pure risk taking
Trading is applying skills knowledge to assess probability from previous experience.
m

 

[Trader333]

Applying skills and knowledge to assess probability just means that you have stacked the odds more in your favour. If you can still lose money then, according to the dictionary, it is a form of gambling. I am sorry if people dont like or want to accept this but it is there in black and white.

Maybe when the next version of the dictionary comes out we can lobby for a change in the definition to be something like:

The mindless staking of money on an event where the outcome is uncertain and where no prior information or research is conducted to improve the probable outcome.


Paul

 

[Zenda]

Is Poker Gambling? It relies (like Trading) on experience and knowlege !! to win!