USDCHF – While USDCHF may be recovering, its broader downside bias still remains intact. And with that recovery running out of steam, downside threats cannot be ruled out. This suggests on ending its corrective recovery, a return to the 0.8889 level is expected. Further down, support lies at the 0.8850 level followed by the 0.8800 level. A turn below here will turn attention to the 0.8750 level followed by the 0.8700 level and possibly lower towards the 0.8850 level. On the other hand, the alternative scenario will be for the pair to continue its recovery and eventually retake the 0.9044 level Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9177 level. A break of here will target the 0.9278 level followed by the 0.9454 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term.
CRUDE OIL: With the commodity remaining weak and vulnerable to the downside, further weakness is expected. This leaves the risk of a return to the 95.95 level on the cards. A breach of here will turn attention to the 95.00 level followed by the 94.00 level and then the 93.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further downside. Resistance is seen at the 98.29 level where a violation will aim at the 100.00 level followed by the 101.00 level where a breach will aim at the 101.50 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 102.00 level with a cut through here turning attention to the 103.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
AUDUSD: With AUDUSD maintaining its bearishness, further downside pressure cannot be ruled out. Support lies at the 0.9400 level with a violation here turning attention to the 0.9317 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely. However, if breached the pair will target the 0.9200 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9528 level where a breach will aim at the 0.9600 level followed by the 0.9700 level and then the 0.9756 level. A cut through here could resume its broader upside towards the 0.9800 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside.
USDCHF – With USDCHF rallying strongly on correction the past week, a follow through higher is envisaged in the new week. In such a case, watch out for the 0.9177 level, a level that must be violated for continued recovery to occur. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9278 level followed by the 0.9454 level. A cut through here will pave the way for a run at the 0.9496 level where a breach will set the stage for a run at the 0.9750 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, a failure to follow through higher on its past week recovery will mean a return to the 0.8889 level where a violation will aim at the 0.8800 level. A turn below here will shift attention to the 0.8750 level followed by the 0.8700 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term despite its recovery attempts.
EURUSD: With a sharp sell off occurring the past week, further downside is likely towards the 1.3400 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3325 level where a violation if seen will aim at the 1.3250 level and possibly lower towards the 1.3200 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance stands at the 1.3650 level where a break will aim at the 1.3710 level. Price hesitation may occur here but if violated it will target the 1.3800 level. But if this is taken out, more downside pressure is likely towards the 1.3645 level. A break of here will pave the way for a run at the 1.3500 level and subsequently the 1.3451 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside.
USDCAD: With price extension now seen following its past week decline, further downside pressure is likely in the days. The only respite to this will be a return and hold above the 1.0418 level. Support lies at the 1.0350 level where a violation will aim at 1.0300 level. Bulls may come in here and push USDCAD higher but if that fails to occur expect the pair to weaken further towards the 1.0250 level and then the 1.0181 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, resistance resides at the 1.0450 level where a breach will target the 1.0500 level. This level if taken out will call for a run at the 1.0550 level followed by the 1.0600 level. All in all, USDCAD continues to face its downside threats.
EURUSD: Although a temporary recovery occurred on Monday, a pull back is now underway. As long as this occurs below the 1.3645 level our outlook on EUR remains lower. This exposes the 1.3441 level where a breach will aim at the 1.3400 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3350 level followed by the 1.3300 level. Conversely, on ending its present weakness it should retake the 1.3831 level but before here it will have to overcome the 1.3695 level. Further out, the 1.3900 level comes in as the next upside followed by the 1.3950 level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its downside bias in the short term.
GBPJPY – A build up on its recovery triggered on Tuesday could follow through in the days ahead. This if seen will target further upside. As long as it can hold above its rising trendline(red), its broader bias remains higher. However, the cross will have to recapture the 159.97 level to reverse its present downside and then trigger its medium term uptrend. A violation will target the 160.50 level. Further out the 161.50 level comes in as the next upside target. Support lies at the 156.00 level where a break will aim at the 155.50 level. A cut though here will open the door for a run at the 155.00 level and then the 154.50 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside on further gains.
USDJPY: While its immediate risk remains higher, USDJPY will have to break and hold above its declining trendline to prevent a return to the downside. Supports come in at the 96.56/18 levels. Below here if seen will aim at the 95.00 level where a violation will aim at the 94.50 level. Alternatively, on continued recovery, resistance resides at the 98.47 level where a break will create scope for a return to the 99.00 level and then the 100.60 level. A violation of here will aim at the 101.52 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 102.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY is exposed to the downside.
EURGBP- With a sell off seeing EURGBP extending its downside pressure, the risk is for a move lower towards the 0.8300 level. A turn below here if seen will aim at the 0.8250 level. Further down, support resides at the 0.8200 level where a breach will turn attention to the 0.8150 level. Conversely, EURGBP will have to return to the 0.8584 level to annul its present weakness. Further out, resistance is seen at the 0.8600 level with a cut through here aiming at the 0.8650 level. Above here will aim at the 0.8700 level and subsequently towards the 0.8750 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside medium term.
USDCHF – With USDCHF gaining strength for a second week in a row, further upside is likely in the days ahead. While maintaining above the 0.9177 level, further upside is envisaged towards the 0.9278 level where a violation will set the stage for a run at the 0.9454 level. A cut through here will pave the way for a push towards the 0.9496 level with a breach of here clearing the way for a run at the 0.9750 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, a failure to follow through higher on its past week recovery will mean a return to the 0.9177 level where a reversal of roles is likely. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8889 level where a violation will aim at the 0.8800 level. A turn below here will shift attention to the 0.8750 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside in the short term on correction.
AUDUSD: With a third week of decline occurring the past week and a follow through seen on Monday and during Tuesday trading session, further bearishness cannot be ruled out. This development leaves the pair targeting further downside towards the 0.9300 level where a violation will target the 0.9250 level. On continued weakness, support comes in at the 0.9200 level with a break targeting further downside towards the 0.9150 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9542 level where a break will pave the way for a run at the 0.9764 level. This if taken out will open the door for a run at the 0.9850 level and then the 0.9900 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside.
GBPJPY: Bullish, Resumes Broader Medium Term Uptrend
GBPJPY – Having resumed its broader long term upside, further offensive is expected. Resistance resides at the 160.50 level where a violation will aim at the 161.50 level. Further out the 161.50 level comes in as the next upside target and possibly higher towards the 162.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the downside, support lies at 159.95 level where a reversal of roles is likely. Support stands at the 159.00 level where a break will aim at the 158.00 level. A cut though here will open the door for a run at the 157.00 level and then the 156.50 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside on further gains.
USDCHF – Except USDCHF reverses its past week losses, there is risk of a return to the 0.9000 level. A violation of here will turn attention to its Oct 2013 low at the 0.8889 level. Further down, support lies at the 0.8750 level followed by the 0.8700 level. On the other hand, to resume its recovery triggered off the 0.8889 level now on hold, the pair will have to take out the 0.9249 level. This if seen will aim at the 0.9454 level. A cut through here will pave the way for a push towards the 0.9496 level where a breach will clear the way for a run at the 0.9750 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
GOLD: Though closing flat the past week, its broader medium term downtrend remains intact. Below its declining trendline leaves our bias to the downside with eyes on the 1,251.56 level. A breach will aim at the 1,215.00 level. Further down, support resides at the 1,180.00 level with a turn below here shifting attention to the 1,150.00 level. Conversely, resistance lies at the 1,375 level where a breach will target the 1,399.79 level. A cut through here will open the door for a run at the 1,433 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1,450.00 level, its psycho level. All in all, GOLD remains biased to the downside medium term.
GBPUSD: Having closed higher for a second week in a row the past week, further upside is likely. This development leaves GBP targeting the 1.66200 level where a violation will aim at the 1.6259 level. A beach of here will resume its broader upside towards the 1.6350 level and subsequently the 1.6400 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Support lies at the 1.6000 level where a breach will push it further lower towards the 1.5853 level. A cut through here will aim at the 1.5800 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.5750 level where a violation will aim at the 1.5700 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its medium term upside bias.
EURJPY: Maintains Medium Term Uptrend Despite Pullback Threats
EURJPY- Despite its mild price pullback, its broader medium term upside bias remains intact. However, the pair will have to retake the 135.49 level to trigger its broader medium term uptrend now on hold. Further out, resistance resides at the 136.50 level followed by the 137.00 level. A break of here will pave the way for a run at the 137.50 level with a push through that level aiming at the 136.50 level. Conversely, support lies at the 132.00 level where a breach will aim at the 131.21 level where a breach will aim at the 130.50 level and possibly blower towards the 130.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the medium term.
USDJPY: We continue to hold our upside bias on USDJPY despite its price hesitation risk. On ending its present pullback, it should retake the 100.60 level. A violation of here will aim at the 101.52 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 102.00 level. Conversely, support lies at the 98.00 level where a break will aim at the 97.00 level. Further down, support comes in at the 96.56/18 levels. Below here if seen will aim at the 95.00 level where a violation will aim at the 94.50 level. On the whole, USDJPY remains exposed to further upside.
AUDUSD: With a second day of downside seeing the pair breaking and holding below the 0.9268 level, further weakness is likely. On continued weakness, support comes in at the 0.9150 level where a break will target further decline towards the 0.9100 level. Further down, support stands at the 0.9050 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9338 level followed by the 0.9450 level. A cut through here will aim at the 0.9542 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.9764 level. This if taken out will open the door for a run at the 0.9850 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside.
USDCHF – With a second week of decline occurring the past week, there is risk of a return to the 0.9000 level. A violation of here will turn attention to its Oct 2013 low at the 0.8889 level. Further down, support lies at the 0.8750 level followed by the 0.8700 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view.On the other hand, to resume its recovery triggered off the 0.8889 level now on hold, the pair will have to take out the 0.9249 level. This if seen will aim at the 0.9454 level. A cut through here will pave the way for a push towards the 0.9496 level and possibly higher towards the 0.9750 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.
