FX trading Nov12 - Nov16

[combotrader]

missed opps

entry and exit as shown. Followed the long term trend after losing 20pips going long in the morning. 1hr is my trigger frame and 4hr the intermediate. Trend was down, down to chinatown on both.

But took profits at 690, like a fool. Cannot seem to be able to stay in a trade and just let it run if making 100+ pips. Bl****y annoying!

Had another 80 pips in there...

CT

 

[Mr.Black]

I am closing this one for +7 pips profit ....

 

[Bigfarmer]

H&S on GBP/JPY daily anyone?



Nice looking H&S on the daily GBY/JAP.

 

[_coda]

entry and exit as shown. Followed the long term trend after losing 20pips going long in the morning. 1hr is my trigger frame and 4hr the intermediate. Trend was down, down to chinatown on both.

But took profits at 690, like a fool. Cannot seem to be able to stay in a trade and just let it run if making 100+ pips. Bl****y annoying!

Had another 80 pips in there...

CT

Hi combo

looks like we caught the same trade today. I also went long initially. I had had a good run shorting cable on Friday and going long today was me making a typical mistake, thinking I know what the market is going to do. (My official excuse is that I was testing a daily signal on the 1h.)

Had to slap my self for losing 60 pips and then after a reality check decided shorting was still the right way to go. Had to think hard about this entry as I try to avoid immediately going the other way when I find I'm going the wrong way. Also, I've never had succes join a well established trend so I usually watch these with envy from the sidelines. What normally happens is that my entry signals the end of the trend.

This time I thought try a very tight stop and see if we can catch this one. It worked. At 690 I thought it was looking pretty good so I added another position. At times I thought I was throwing away some of the early gains but I found that if I stay away from the 1h and 10m charts I am much less worried about the price heading north. I finally got out at 599 as I thought it was going to struggle to get through 600.


rgds

 

[combotrader]

back to short again at 641. extreme values of osma on 1hr. daily trend still down. hidden divergence and type c reentry. altho already making -30pips!!

Hi COda

its safest to follow the dominant trend imho. i have taken a reentry here, and looks like it might end in grief. I cant trade the shorter TFs due to work - would love to. Lets see what happens withthis one. Good sbr at 740/760. downside to 530 initially.

Rgds
CT.

 

[combotrader]

Out at 691. I dont know where this relief rally will end, if it is that. But I`ve had enough of being skewered. Lost 50 pips - given back less than half of what I made yesterday.

 

[kenobi]

back to short again at 641. extreme values of osma on 1hr. daily trend still down. hidden divergence and type c reentry. altho already making -30pips!!

Hi COda

its safest to follow the dominant trend imho. i have taken a reentry here, and looks like it might end in grief. I cant trade the shorter TFs due to work - would love to. Lets see what happens withthis one. Good sbr at 740/760. downside to 530 initially.

Rgds
CT.

Hi, I dont understand why you short an inverted head and shoulders on your chart. At the very least, this is heading back to 2.0800.

 

[_coda]

Hi CT et al

I'm long cable from 578. (I placed that one 0200 this morning) Added to it at 667 and it's looking good so far.

I use simple TA, but it always lags. With the GBPUSD having traced back 600 since the high, I was willing to go long with a tight stop and let it run. Woke up this morning saw that it was working and added.

Also long on EURUSD from 610, but the headroom here is a lot less. I was waiting for a bounce off 600 to get in but it blasted straight through and triggered a limit order I had waiting there for this eventuality. So not the nicest entry.

rgds

 

[graemenash]

Beautiful setup on EURJPY straight off the bat this morning.

Currently similar looking setups in AUDUSD, GBPUSD and EURCHF too, hopefully they'll all produce an entry to make up for a trade-less monday...

 

[graemenash]

AUDUSD setup plays out giving short entry at 8918; stop at 43 offered.

Looking to sell EURCHF on a retracement back to 1.6439, order will stay in unless price trades below last local low at 1.6424.

 

[graemenash]

AUDUSD failed to make a clear breach of the start point of the retracement so stop not yet moved in to b/e.

EURCHF short entry triggered at 1.6439, stop 55.

Always slightly unnerving when you have multiple open trades on different markets all in the same direction; you'll either win big or lose big!

Tempted by GBPUSD short if market trades to 2.0686, but the lack of a decent SBR zone and the fact that I have three shorts already running means I will stay out I think.

We shall see

 

[de123]

yesterday i played usd/cad, and eur/cad longs,..before went to sleep did move my SL to be, and ofcourse they were hit,....sometimes i wish i would take the profit, and reenter the next day,...i could be +70pips x 2,..no i wonted more...,...today i might reload them,..since i expect oil inventories to rise in plus teritory,..i am gona lock profit anyway,...we must send oil down to 70s region,...its hurting bussines globaly,...

 

[graemenash]

AUDUSD trades to 0.8886 bid; start point of retracement broken and hence stop in to b/e. Order placed to take half off at 0.8872 offered. Limit on other half set to 0.8788.

EDIT
-----
Stopped out b/e on AUDUSD

 

[bbmac]

Interesting to see where cable found support this morning, at the ascending (2 touch) trend line which coincided with 50% of 9879-1162. (See screenshot)

 

[bbmac]

The attached 15min chart shows that former lower swing high as the local support in cable atm. It was the last identifiable lower swing high on the hrly in the down move.

 

[bbmac]

Difficult to pick out any noticable potential SBR zones on 1hr and 4hr in the recent down move other than this Hourly 0584-0644, the top of which (lower swing hi in down move) is now offering support, so we turn to the fibs and a 3 fib cluster exists between 0697-0709 [includes 50% of mondays down move,] which has so far contained the recovery from the 0522 base, with the 1hr having a hidden/reverse divergence band deviation re-entry set-up there to short earlier. (see screenshot.) Aware now though that 1hr has put in a higher swing low and higher swing hi in thias recovery, albeit minor.

MNi talking about offers still 0710/15 area ahead of 0740-55 minor offers, 0770/80 medium offers and 0800 medium offers 0810 stops.

61.8% of yesterdays fall comes in at 0737, 0766-0793 housing a 4 fib cluster that includes the 78.6 of same move and 38.2 of total down move at 0766. 0763-0774 houses a lower swing lo in the hourly to the corresponding lower swing hi at mondays hi area of 0869, the next last potential SBR zone on that time frame, i guess. 50% of the total down move since Friday is at 0842

 

[fibonelli]

The attached 15min chart shows that former lower swing high as the local support in cable atm. It was the last identifiable lower swing high on the hrly in the down move.

looks also like an inverted head and shoulders chart pattern!

 

[ampro]

Difficult to pick out any noticable potential SBR zones on 1hr and 4hr in the recent down move....

MNi talking about offers still 0710/15 area ahead of 0740-55 minor offers, 0770/80 medium offers...

I'd tend to agree with the MNI focus up there at the 2.0770 area should prices grind up.

It houses a 38.2 from Fridays high & a likely radar fulcrum for last weeks aggressive shorts.

 

[Mr.Black]

I am long on EUR/USD

 

[bbmac]

thx ampro.

0781 being last week's low area of course [0788 1/11 lo,] 0822 last mth's high.

Dly r1 comes in around 0756 area, 0760 being 1/11 lo, 0765 2/11 lo. Below here and 0740 is wkly S1 , .

This 0700/15 was touted as holding offers in an earlier mni update prior to the retrace off the daily highs, 0707 being yesterdays u.s hi, 0701 being 30/10 hi with 0708 the current daily high of course.