Purple Brain
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,613
- Likes
- 180
It would be very difficult for anyone to advise you on what you were doing wrong when you've just netted 51 points.
FX Trade Setups, Entries, Management and Exit
- Thread starter Purple Brain
- Start date
- Watchers 13
scholfield
Established member
- Messages
- 993
- Likes
- 233
haha. I see your point.
But that's just one day. Everything works some of the time and I'd agree with you if it was the case that I was making 50 odd ticks consistently every day! Maybe it would be the case that even on 100% winning days with no losing trades, a good trader would know that some of my trades were actually low probability trades, and I was fortunate in this instance...
barjon
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,752
- Likes
- 1,863
I think it was Neil who recently gave some definitions:
A good winning trade is one where you have made money obeying your rules and/or discretionary instinct to the letter.
A bad winning trade is one where you made money but ignored your rules etc.
A good losing trade is one where you lost money but obeyed your rules etc.
A bad losing trade is one where you ignored your rules etc and lost money.
So as long as you define "right" and "wrong" in that context and you are "right" the vast majority of the time then no-one has anything to teach you
Otherwise stop making "bad" trades scholfield
Established member
- Messages
- 993
- Likes
- 233
Quick glimpse at cable. I would have been losing so far if I were trading it. Couple of 12 pip stop-outs by the looks of it.
Purple Brain
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,613
- Likes
- 180
That's the thing isn't it, two trades run exactly the same from the off - one you pull on the first retrace and you look good when it doesn't even look back. The next time, same setup, same action and it immediately turns around and goes your way and doesn't look back - and you feel you've been mugged.
I guess this is where the rules come in. How much of a retrace is enough for you to exit? Is it number of pips, percentage of prior move, time of day, size of last candle - could be all and any , or more of course. And what exactly do you mean by a loss or change of momentum? Everything needs to be specified, spelled out and written down and adhered to - mechanical actions or discretionary, but with clear bounds for when and how the discretionary bit kicks in. I haven't been anywhere near systematic enough to earn success yet.
As barjon has said above in re-quoting Neil - I guess you don't feel so bad if you play by all your rules and make a small win rather than a big one. Or even a small loss.
Purple Brain
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,613
- Likes
- 180
I wondered if I was making the gods angry by posting live trades as it might be considered Bravado or Hubris. Only my singularly dismal and humiliatingly public performance has saved me from suffering even greater losses as a punishment for my sins. I think I wait until I become a little better at calling the trades before I start to worry too much about this issue.
You are right. It's only ego, anyway.
Purple Brain
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,613
- Likes
- 180
In my case splitlink, not the case. One doesn't publicly highlight one's woeful inexperience on a daily basis to inflate one's ego.
My purpose is clearly stated in post #1 - to pick yours and other experienced traders' brains and hopefully get an assist with my trading skills development. An exercise which has already been incredibly personally worthwhile. Thanks to all for your time and efforts.
Shakone
Senior member
- Messages
- 2,460
- Likes
- 665
Do you have a written trading plan? Have you backtested and forwardtested to see if it's profitable?
If the answer to any of the above is no, then are you trading with real money? If so, stop. There's no need to lose money.
If you have a plan and have demonstrated it works, how do your real results compare with your backtest and forwardtest results?
C
cablemonster
What you have written is exactly why most pro's trade in multiple lots because you will get yourself on an emotional rollercoaster trading 1 units. If you are able to get a good entry why should you punish yourself emotionally and financially by closing the trade on the 1st retrace? Trading with multiple lots will help you manage your trade and hence your emotions. Next time set off the trade with 2 units. Set a small achievable target for the 1st unit and take your profit as soon as price stalls or you reach the first trouble area. Now you can run the 2nd unit to your longer target and cut the stop size right down. You exit unit 2 when you no longer want to be in the trade :smart:
Ok, but don't sell yourself short. I've been doing this for many years, as a hobby I admit, but I am still treading on eggs and don't feel that I am qualified to give advice. Share experiences, yes, but only to give a lead to anyone reading my posts so that they can check it out ad reach their own conclusions.
Purple Brain
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,613
- Likes
- 180
Great minds.
I've not only had someone else PM me with precisely that advice, but I also started that task right after I posted above on realising the important of rules and a written, comprehensive plan.
You guys are brilliant. Thanks.
timsk
Legendary member
- Messages
- 8,716
- Likes
- 3,418
A whole bunch of invoices are winging their way to you as I type PB!
Further to cablemonster's post about multiple lots, this thread may be of interest to you if you've not seen it already: Phil Newton's Range Break Out strategy This is the salient part relating to multiple lots (copied from the opening post):
". . . The way that I currently manage my trades is to remove the risk on the trade by scaling out a portion of the position. This is a simple formulae.
I trade in multiples of 3 lots, I will look to remove 2/3rds at 50% of the size of the stop loss size. For example, If I have a 30 pip stop loss 50% of the stop loss size is 15 pips, 2/3rds of the position will be removed at +15. The last 1/3rd of the trade remains with its original stop loss level. If this last 1/3rd gets stopped out then I will have overall a break even trade.
2 x +15 = 30 pips
1 x -30 = -30 pips
Profit on overall position = 0 pips
After this I have a risk free trade and my final target is based on an average days movement . . ."
Lastly, if you're wanting a few pointers on writing a trading plan, the 3rd link in my signature may be of some interest.
Cheers,
Tim.
barjon
Legendary member
- Messages
- 10,752
- Likes
- 1,863
mmm, just to put a different slant on scaling which is a massive topic in its own right.
The "take half, run half" is a well used technique but something of a comfort blanket since it is not theoretically sound. It ensures that you always have your maximum sized position (2) when you take your largest losses and your minimum sized position (1) when you take your largest gains.
Van Tharp says quite a lot about it and reckons that when he has asked clients to re-visit their past trades and determine how much of a difference there would have been had they only taken full loss or full profit, they become totally amazed at how much more they would have made holding onto a full position.
Just because something is theoretically unsound doesn't immediately render it a no-no in the practical world, of course
The "take half, run half" is a well used technique but something of a comfort blanket since it is not theoretically sound. It ensures that you always have your maximum sized position (2) when you take your largest losses and your minimum sized position (1) when you take your largest gains.
Van Tharp says quite a lot about it and reckons that when he has asked clients to re-visit their past trades and determine how much of a difference there would have been had they only taken full loss or full profit, they become totally amazed at how much more they would have made holding onto a full position.
Just because something is theoretically unsound doesn't immediately render it a no-no in the practical world, of course
Purple Brain
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,613
- Likes
- 180
This thread is for traders to explain the basis for taking their trades, entry, in-trade management and exits. Please read post #1.
It is for freely sharing techniques and methods and not to be used on a commercial basis to pump paid-for products and services.
Good luck with your trade, but it's interesting your long stop is almost spot-on where I would be considering getting in long.Chevaux pour les cours.
Purple Brain
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,613
- Likes
- 180
timsk & barjon - thank you for your comments, once more.
I get the comfort blanket of reducing size on a winning trade and I also get the basic math involved and appreciate the point barjon is making with regard to reduced P&L as a trade-off for that comfort. I suspect much of this has more to do with the psychological/emotional needs of the individual trader. Even when van Tharp pointed out the reduced performance to his trading group, I imagine some still used the old method simply because they felt more comfortable doing it that way?
It's very similar to my 'need' to get in when the price has come back against my intended direction and looks just about as unlikely as it's possible to look to turn around again. I could (should?) wait until I get more confirmation of the turnaround, but I'm guessing I prefer the concept of more frequent stop outs on the basis that my winners will capture more of the run - even if this doesn't serve my bottom line. This rationale hasn't been confirmed in actual trading which is obviously a fundamental flaw in my thinking processes, but it perhaps pinpoints the curve ball our emotional idiosyncrasies throw at us in trading.
More confirmation required: Fewer trades, higher W:L, less risk and less reward - per trade.
Less confirmation required: Larger number of trades, lower W:L, more risk and more reward - per trade.
When you look at the per trade versus the bottom line and realise something needs to slide along that spectrum a little way, I suspect many will find that change difficult if not impossible.
I'm in the process of writing a trading plan and putting a temporary hold on the steady bleed of capital at the moment so no live trades and a possibly more than a change or two to what I've been doing at the end of it. When I write down what I am currently doing it's almost like another person writing it - there are some plain foolish things and others that border on the mentally insane. The very small and very basic core that drives my views on directional bias is about the only thing that has remained intact.
I get the comfort blanket of reducing size on a winning trade and I also get the basic math involved and appreciate the point barjon is making with regard to reduced P&L as a trade-off for that comfort. I suspect much of this has more to do with the psychological/emotional needs of the individual trader. Even when van Tharp pointed out the reduced performance to his trading group, I imagine some still used the old method simply because they felt more comfortable doing it that way?
It's very similar to my 'need' to get in when the price has come back against my intended direction and looks just about as unlikely as it's possible to look to turn around again. I could (should?) wait until I get more confirmation of the turnaround, but I'm guessing I prefer the concept of more frequent stop outs on the basis that my winners will capture more of the run - even if this doesn't serve my bottom line. This rationale hasn't been confirmed in actual trading which is obviously a fundamental flaw in my thinking processes, but it perhaps pinpoints the curve ball our emotional idiosyncrasies throw at us in trading.
More confirmation required: Fewer trades, higher W:L, less risk and less reward - per trade.
Less confirmation required: Larger number of trades, lower W:L, more risk and more reward - per trade.
When you look at the per trade versus the bottom line and realise something needs to slide along that spectrum a little way, I suspect many will find that change difficult if not impossible.
I'm in the process of writing a trading plan and putting a temporary hold on the steady bleed of capital at the moment so no live trades and a possibly more than a change or two to what I've been doing at the end of it. When I write down what I am currently doing it's almost like another person writing it - there are some plain foolish things and others that border on the mentally insane. The very small and very basic core that drives my views on directional bias is about the only thing that has remained intact.
Purple Brain
Experienced member
- Messages
- 1,613
- Likes
- 180
Originally Posted by Highwave360
We then look at the pair, so here the EUR /JPY, to find the best timing.
We like to buy now the EUR / JPY, with a very short stop loss at 133.46.
We would take our profit once a bullish acceleration will happen.
Please forgive my Schadenfreude/Joie maligne at your losing trade, but people could mirror your success, and mine, without needing any of your special tools at all. Not a winner as an advert for your services I'm afraid. Bon chance.
We then look at the pair, so here the EUR /JPY, to find the best timing.
We like to buy now the EUR / JPY, with a very short stop loss at 133.46.
We would take our profit once a bullish acceleration will happen.
Please forgive my Schadenfreude/Joie maligne at your losing trade, but people could mirror your success, and mine, without needing any of your special tools at all. Not a winner as an advert for your services I'm afraid. Bon chance.
I mentioned, yesterday, the 3 Ducks. I'm making 20 points on it, at present
But
I lost 14 on 2 previous trades beforehand.
So
Whether 3 ducks is good, or not, you have to get the timing right. One thing that helped me in the end is that I decided that today I was to short the dollar against the yen and I stayed with that-
I sold at 99.06 and now it is 98.77. My problem . now. is how to eliminate entries that get stopped before the right one comes along.
But
I lost 14 on 2 previous trades beforehand.
So
Whether 3 ducks is good, or not, you have to get the timing right. One thing that helped me in the end is that I decided that today I was to short the dollar against the yen and I stayed with that-
I sold at 99.06 and now it is 98.77. My problem . now. is how to eliminate entries that get stopped before the right one comes along.
