FX-2008: w/c Feb-04th

[2be]

Hi Chow, I know that my entry is against the trend, since the big SL and a relatively small load, I calculate fibs on daily time frame at the close of the US session (CIS EOD data feed).With this in mind I intend to build my position if the trade progresses well.I will also take shorter trades when I sence there is stronger direction to the north.
Good to hear from you, happy trading.
2be

Covered the long for 15pps profit not too happy with the 4 hr strong trend south, I shall take long position around the 0.786 retracament if the price will get there

 

[tomaz55]

LONG 9580 tgt 9700

been building up a long position from yesterday. if cable falls to around 9500, i'll buy more. i see this eventually reaching 2k+.

if it reaches 9450 after the boe tomorrow and stays there, i might think about taking a big loss

gl all

 

[rav700]

Hi 2 be hope you are okay buddy...
My thoughts are the dow retraces upto 12365 and takes ...eur\jpy with it and gbp\jpy with it
currently a very tight trading zone.... a Long @ 90 on eur\jpy looks pretty decent for about 30 pips and then might meet a little bit of resistance @ 156.11..if that is broken then 156.70 is on the cards...and then fall with the dow again....lets see where she goes..

Best of luck
Rav

 

[2be]

Hi 2 be hope you are okay buddy...
My thoughts are the dow retraces upto 12365 and takes ...eur\jpy with it and gbp\jpy with it
currently a very tight trading zone.... a Long @ 90 on eur\jpy looks pretty decent for about 30 pips and then might meet a little bit of resistance @ 156.11..if that is broken then 156.70 is on the cards...and then fall with the dow again....lets see where she goes..

Best of luck
Rav

Hi Rav, so good to see you! I agree that the equties are influencing the currency pairs atm, esp the DOW and S&P. Thats the reason I am flat , though if DOW goes down the USD will strenghten.

 

[ChowClown]

Hi 2be,...cable giving joy this morning Happy 'walking' a 15min fib down to track this beauty...my target areas range 542 down to 506. Mindful though of how quickly they might turn this, from here.

542 target just hit; yesterday's intraday fib (between the high and low) contained the bulls and lower than expected data just released assisting the further nudge down...i still have 511 and 506 targets in mind. If these levels are nailed i'll sit on the sidelines for a while, at least until the dust settles after BoE.

 

[a_gnome]

Strong move upwards in EURGBP is leading to EURUSD and GBPUSD breaking out in opposite directions this morning.

 

[ChowClown]

...i still have 511 and 506 targets in mind. If these levels are nailed i'll sit on the sidelines for a while, at least until the dust settles after BoE.

...bosh. Everything off the table for a while now. Might have a bit of fun scalping with play money while waiting for BoE.

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

Tuesday's Daily Bearish engulfing candle was perhaps the most recent clue of subsequent price action direction.

 

[ampro]

Meanwhile cable started playing catch-up early London time before accelerating to the downside on the weak-ish UK manufacturing data.

It's also washing out the last remnants of those brave 'longs' from the 22-23 Jan pullback off the 1.9330 kick.

Beginning to sound alarm bells towards that January closing zone @ 1.94 I mentioned the other day.

If they don't like the taste of today's offerings that zone will get hoofed good & proper. Shorts still holding the value card

 

[2be]

...bosh. Everything off the table for a while now. Might have a bit of fun scalping with play money while waiting for BoE.

Well done Chow, it was a reasonable ride south. With the BOE news release there will be added volatility, and there is a possibility of the reversal around 9470, fib78.6 retracement, there is also positive divergence on cable 4hr chart.
Happy trading 2be

 

[a_gnome]

Actually to be honest it's kind of the other way round imho. Eur/usd ran into good bids below 1.4600 just as usd/chf ran into even better offers 1.0995. This turned on a dime and magnetic CTA stops around 1.0950/55 level caught the market's eye, seeing eur/usd paid up to the 30s. Meanwhile cable started playing catch-up early London time before accelerating to the downside on the weak-ish UK manufacturing data. EUR/GBP feels a little like it's caught in the crossfire of all this. And of course we're waiting on the ECB and BoE today. unch and -25 have kinda been priced in, and not much differs today, so people aren't suddenly gonna wake up this morning out of the blue and go 'ooh - rate divergence - buy eurgbp'

Could be wrong of course, but to me eurgbp felt like the tail, not the dog this morning

My $0.02 as always

GJ

Thanks GJ for the clarification. It must be good to have a handle on what is going on in the market in the way that you do. Is there any way for someone outside the "loop" to get an idea of what's going on like this?

 

[a_gnome]

The Bank of England Statement

For those who are interested here is the link to the actual BoE statement:

Bank of England|Publications|News|2008|Bank of England Reduces Bank Rate by 0.25 Percentage Points to 5.25%, 7 February 2008

 

[bbmac]

gbpusd

Set-up of the day has to be the 5min hidden divergence, band/channel deviation based re-entry to downtrend set-up ...see screenshot) that occurred after the BOE/Mpc rate cut knee jerk run up to 9559 area. The 5/15min potential SBR zone was at 9558-9579 and price found resistance there. The entry was timed on the 1min trigger as a Reversal Extreme (extreme oscillator readings with band/channel deviation/extreme deviation) and that too is attached.

5min (intermediate) Re-entry type 1 with 1min (trigger) Reversal Extreme.

 

[ampro]

Tuesday's Daily Bearish engulfing candle was perhaps a clue of subsequent price action direction.

It was certainly (technical) confirmation that the shorts had nothing to worry about on the excitable kick back off the years lows.

The 3 daily closing indecision bars up yonder at 1.99 were the real clues this thing was dead in the water & the mid-term shorts were good to (compound) go for a trip back to test the demand camp at the years lows.

9150 is the next major decision leg on the radar. There's some flak to cut thru in between these boundaries, but that zone will tickboxed from hereabouts.

 

[ampro]

A good chunk of relevant data on the agenda next week which will be eyed with intense interest, including the BOE Inflation report printing at 10.30 next Wednesday.

That + the minutes of todays gig will offer the serious money an insight to how the Bank are handling the current turbulance.

At least the technicals focus one or two minor-major levels of interest on any sustained kick off this important area.

 

[a_gnome]

Sort of - someone really in tune with the price action could have got some of the way there. Someone really in tune with the price action AND a history in the markets (even if they weren't currently privvy to any tidbits from the 'inner circle') could maybe have got a little further (as they may know what to look for). It all adds up, but I don't think that that particular post contained a whole lot of extra special inside info or anything. I know there were good offers in USD/CHF and good bids in EUR/USD because a couple of mates in the market started talking about them, but if I'd been sitting at home I think it would have still become apparent to me what was leading and what was following. This stuff just takes time (and of course even of you have 30 years in the market it's still never purely black and white).

Hope that helps

GJ

Thanks for that GJ. The truth is that I just tend to follow the price itself for the market that I'm trading. I saw the EURUSD go down to test the lows and shoot back up whereas GBPUSD was continuing to move lower so I figured EURGBP had to be doing something unusual to reconcile these two facts. I hadn't actually given much thought as to which was the dog and which the tail.

 

[a_gnome]

Personally, for what I do and how I do it I absolutely need to have a handle on what's really driving these moves, but that's just me.

GJ

I'd be interested to hear more about "what you do and how" if you felt so inclined, without you giving away any trade secrets of course!

 

[a_gnome]

An early move up in the USD seems to have been met with sellers with morning. Same move and rejection for GBPUSD EURUSD and USDCHF. Perhaps Gamma can tell us what's going on behind the scenes.

 

[ampro]

Given the activity this week & today's data cupboard is bare, not to mention a G7 weekend looming, I guess traders will be squaring up/paring off & taking a back seat to assess the state of play.

We got a decent chunk of data hitting the tape next week & current levels will be testing the mettle of the psychology out there. Only natural there'll be a little pushing & shoving going on today into the session closes.

Also, one or two of these pairs are stretching their weekly average prints. That's not to say there's no more mileage in the tanks, but it's often a marker to be aware of as we amble into the weeks close.

 

[ampro]

Take the British Pound in isolation at current levels.

Think about who would be liquidating down here with prices hustling the years closing lows.

If you were short from farther back at the lower top failure zones, & you were peeling off-compounding back at the supply lines....you've now got the yearly lows in your sights heading into a weekend.

Who would you be wanting to pass the risk across to??

You're sat with profit in the bank, a decent core position & plenty of technical clean air above 1.94 to suss out the state of the potential supply on kicks back up.

Fundamental flavors are still good to go for the Pound Bears, so the "longs" are really taking heavy risks at these levels? no?