Futures Biases

[Xymox]

its a worriesome situation when the dollar and oil market are going parabolic. Dollar parabolic down, and Oil parabolic up. Means tops and bottoms are created with a greater degree of volatility then seen before in that derivative.

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/M

Studying the Naz bubble, a high degree of daily volatility was achieved before it popped.

 

[Xymox]

money follows statistical measure, if a market has a high degree of variability, it implies immense risk.

a low variability market, can still kill if stops are placed within the variability. If variability levels increase, implies volatility levels increasing and even money flows with the trend are being hit, and losses incurred. It causes statistical instability leading to capitulation and tops to form.

when stops of trend players are hit, it takes away from sponsorship.

 

[Xymox]

a line is a series of points that can't be resolved further with the measure being used. When a line is drawn with a pencil on paper, the lead from the pencil only hits certain portions of the paper along the path, there a filling defects but those defects can't be resolved with the naked eye, and thus we perceive a series of points as a line.

a price series is the same way.

 

[jacson101]

Adaptive Expectations...

Studying the Naz bubble, a high degree of daily volatility was achieved before it popped.[/QUOTE]

Some have been coined "masters of the universe" lately for good reason in my opinion...most of us are placed in a roles whereby adaptive expectations are utilized.
In the extreme case of say running a world super-power country some interactive expectational skills would be needed.
Whether we're in the midst of global demand-pull inflation spike or not I dunno...

 

[jacson101]

money follows statistical measure, if a market has a high degree of variability, it implies immense risk.

a low variability market, can still kill if stops are placed within the variability. If variability levels increase, implies volatility levels increasing and even money flows with the trend are being hit, and losses incurred. It causes statistical instability leading to capitulation and tops to form.

when stops of trend players are hit, it takes away from sponsorship.

No more risk than saying-- We are going to put a man on the moon---

Ten tick samurai's and a like will naturally get hurt as a true statistical measure... if we follow the statistical mean or expectation value (science pun intended) instead of just the blind quant's we should be alright.

 

[Xymox]

Lean Hogs, a very nice breakdown...

 

[Xymox]

No more risk than saying-- We are going to put a man on the moon---

Ten tick samurai's and a like will naturally get hurt as a true statistical measure... if we follow the statistical mean or expectation value (science pun intended) instead of just the blind quant's we should be alright.

blatant inflation is around the corner, its a result of deflationary rescue.

 

[Xymox]

canadian dollar, nice up move...

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

the concept of parabolics. Parabolics are a function of psychology on the timeframe being traded.QUOTE]

I find it interesting that you should mention that as I independantly came to the conclusion that exponental looking formations usually seemed to be produced some underlying psychology. I have found that almost all market movements seem to fall into 2 categories: strictly linear and elegantly concave/convex. It seems that the human nature to find such patterns makes them a self fufilling prophecy once they are first detected.

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

An article i think may have some explanation for the parabolic curves in found in markets and the fear/greed:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matching_law

"Stated simply, the matching law suggests that an animal's response rate to a scenario will be proportionate to the amount/duration of postive reinforcement delivered."

People buy/sell and then "learn" that this action is good and they know what they are doing. As the rate of positive reinforcement increases so does the amount of participation in the situation until it blows up.

 

[Xymox]

price action is a summation of money flows. Computers use statistical measures to spot psychological time tested hallmarks.

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

Here I go picking tops again but am I not at least justified in at least saying that now isint the best time to be buying and we might be due for a bit of a shakeout to get people talking about the end of the world again? (Time horizon: a couple weeks)

 

[Xymox]

grossly its trending up, risk is greater to bet against it. A distributive phase but it managed to breakout higher.

If you diversify into trending biases in 50 instruments more often then not most will adhere to the biases.

 

[jacson101]

blatant inflation is around the corner, its a result of deflationary rescue.

Indeed,demand and price inflation fueled by feudal societies and under- performing samurai islands respectively have had an asymmetric balance of power tilted in their favour. Everyone needs to eat I guess...I reckon that these feudal societies and under-performers will be the first to get "hit" for their aspirations and desires to compete.
I really do feel that the western world still holds the "royal flush" and that the inflation concerns you've discussed are extremely valid and in need of some serious thought in do time...we've got lots of time...Let Paulson and the gang show the world the way...

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

I am bearish on the usd if this turns out to be another contrarian indicator its going to be one hell of a short squeeze!

Daily of usd/cad (Last bar has not happened yet)

 

[Xymox]

bearishness has been working so far, and till it doesn't. Let the market tell you its not working.

a change in US political landscape can sometimes spell turns in the marketplace bias.

 

[jacson101]

I am bearish on the usd if this turns out to be another contrarian indicator its going to be one hell of a short squeeze!

Daily of usd/cad (Last bar has not happened yet)

nIce call...
Again, recalling the words of my youth...have at it!
Canadian manufacturing sector is almost in negative growth one month into parity!...
Bank of Canada on the news wire intervening...
I fear all economic numbers will be soft from here on out ( 1 year forward)...
New commodity royalty schemes...weak politicians = very underweight CAD across the board.Pick your pairing

 

[n00b7r4d3r]

I am still bearish on usd (altho that is not to say that im currently short). I have recently thought up a new betting strategy that i think im going to stick with which relies on volatility for making money instead of direction. It actually put me long and i made few hundred pips on the bounce (despite my opinion that usd/cad would probably not bounce much.

Here is my current take on things:

 

[jacson101]

I am still bearish on usd (altho that is not to say that im currently short). I have recently thought up a new betting strategy that i think im going to stick with which relies on volatility for making money instead of direction. It actually put me long and i made few hundred pips on the bounce (despite my opinion that usd/cad would probably not bounce much.

Here is my current take on things:

Lol...good but, too much betting involved in your synopsis...An idea would be system trade it and match your tech's with fundie's for trade opportunities, it'll make you a better trader as I feel you'll probably enjoying eating the market on a regular basis..:cheesy:

A good place to start would be, think about why the CAD rallied in the first place

 

[jacson101]

ok sorry I couldn't help myself...