FTSE100- June

[bracke]

JeanM

Thank you for your reply.

Your buy at 4400 and sell at 4450 seems spot on to me but did you not consider selling late yesterday bearing in mind what the US might and did do After the dow fell last night were you not wary that the ftse would fall this morning

Perhaps the jobs data will provide the impetus to move the US markets upwards and take the ftse with it but I am not betting on it.

Regards

bracke

 

[JeanM]

If I had been sensible I would have got out when the Dow made the double top yesterday, but took a risk that we had already priced in the Dow at 10190 odd yesterday. Ended up not gaining much.

Jean

 

[splasher]

I have to say trading the Ftse this week has been dull as ditchwater and i'm amazed and pleased the thread has kept going. I've been trading Gilts which have been marginally better and watching FTSE for any decent opportunities but sadly missed the move from 4470 down to 4405 and subsequent rally to 4450. Been in and out around 4450 couple of times expecting a move either way but have scratched each trade. Think i'll call it a day until monday as i'm bored and they always make the worst trades...............
Good weekend all

 

[bracke]

JeanM

Excuse me saying so but I think that you were rather fortunate to get away with that.
After the dow fell last night I would have been quaking in my boots.
I know that you could have held on till the 17th or is it 18th but bearing in mind your usual 2 day holds it was a little risky

splasher

Can't entirely agree with you that ftse was dull, there were opening gaps to be filled , which were and a biggish drop late on wednesday. All that excitement made me quite dizzy.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

It looks like everyone has shut up shop for the for the week.

I look forward to the return of mully et al on monday.

I wish you all a pleasant weekend

Regards

bracke

 

[iainpw]

I'm still here Bracke - just about !!!!!!
Doing what JeanM does holding onto a position, probably close it tonight though.
Have a good weekend all.

Cheers......Iain

 

[stevecartwright]

Call me stupid I have been wondering why there weren't any posts on the May board. Have found you all again and look forward to reading your posts. My option straddle isstill open and the FTSE is exactly where I need it, time value starting to depreciate. Next week will be interesting.
Steve

 

[mully]

Hey everyone. Half term is over and now it is back to being "full on" and broadband .

But what great weather we had ( down on Dorset beaches) It was like being in the South of France with the sun still hot at 6.30pm). Anyway it kept the young crew very busy and happy.


As to markets, as the table summarizes, not much overall progress was achieved, with the FT World index falling 0.01% on the week! Asian markets saw weakness with the volatile HK China H share index falling 4.7% on the week.

While bond yields rose 12 bps on the week, crude oil prices managed to drop 3.4%.

As for FTSE, it was all over the place, but still resolutely stuck within its 4400-4470 trading range. Vodafone continues to act as a significant drag on the index (see attachment 2) However, very quietly FTSE250 was edging northwards (see attachment 3).

Looking ahead:

There appear no significant corporate results.

However, Greenspan is talking on Tuesday to a central bank panel before the International Monetary Conference in London and on Thursday he will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on his nomination for a fifth term.

Iraq has so far not provided bad news over the weekend, so FTSE could test its upper ceiling of 4770/2 soon.

 

[mully]

Here are the up to date Global Titans charts.

All comments/observations welcome

 

[KJH]

Hi All,
Attached is my daily FTSE chart I've been posting. Nothing really has changed from last week !
Except that when this range does break it could lead to a solid move IMHO.
Having said that I wouldn't be surprised for a minute for a 'false break'. That is breaking out one side of the sideways consolidation, taking out all the buy or sell stops only to reverse and then trend in the opposite direction. As always, time will tell...
Upside break will have resistance at the previous swing low (Apr 30) of 4490ish and of course the 4500 level. After that 61.8% Ret of the larger range is 4510 and then the swing high of
May 5.
Descending trend line resistance ( blue line) may provide some resistance.
IF this market can't get above the 50% ret of 4482 for 2 consecutive closes and moves down below 4400 I suspect a little bit of a selling panic will hit, pushing the market down towards Mar 24 low and possibly beyond.
Whatever the case do as Mully's tag says....'trade the market not the forecast', or something like that !!
KJ

 

[mully]

Asian Markets strongly positive

The Nikkei rose 311.87 points at 11,439.92, its highest close since May 6. The 2.8 percent gain was its biggest in a single day since December 15, 2003, when it jumped 3.16 percent.

The broader TOPIX index rose 2.37% to 1,151.67.

 

[JeanM]

mully

Where do you get your information on the Asian markets from?
Thanks.


Jean

 

[mully]

JeanM,

My first task, when I hit the on button @7.00am each morning,
is to read Bloomberg's Top Worldwide stories.( http://www.bloomberg.com/news/top.html)
I also have "finance.yahoo.com" as my starter page with the global indicies.
I then click on any index to read the reuters story behind the index.
This allows me to be up to speed with overnight developments.

 

[splasher]

FTSE seems to be holding gains and Futs feel quite strong with premium to cash widening slightly. Personally feel that may squeeze a bit higher this afternoon before some profit taking pushes us back down to the 4460 level. Anyone got any technical indicators to confirm/deny?

 

[bracke]

Good afternoon all - no I haven't just got up, had to go out this morning.

Two points, yes you guesed it. A nice gap on opening this morning which I couldn.t resist so in with a down trade at 4490.

Second point. On the chart below the volume from about 1.45 rose to a peak with little change in price spread. Would the more experieced care to give a reason for this.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

KJH

Why would you not be surprised by a false break?

ftse got to 4496 but could not get above. I suppose if it can get to about 4550 ish it will take out the shorters' stops and maybe turn round and go for the long stops ( thats also a cricket term but you wouldn't know much about that where you are would you ).
As usual it will largely depend whether the US can make a big push upward to take the ftse with it.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

And not even a mully stirred

Early morning posts from mully and then nothing. Are you tired out after looking after the little mullys last week?

Where's hooya, finirama and the rest? Is this hot weather too much for them.

Regards

bracke

 

[mully]

Well interesting day.

Here is one view for Bracke et al:

Usual opening gap up to 4496 (08.30am), then an ease back below 4490 before another attempt at 4496. Notice that volume was not usefully higher. A sign that the second push lacked conviction. A short trade was sanction be this failure.


Then it was downhill all day until 14.45pm when bracke notice high volume, but the next bar was up (indicating that the high volume were buyers). Nothing to do but wait for the retest of the low to see it it held (ie significant) or just a pause on the way down.

The retest came around half an hour later. Notice that volume on the retest was lighter than on the first low. Another sign that the retest lacked conviction. Time to close short/open a new long.


Re comments about my absence: We run a letting business as well. A next door neighbour to one of our properties decided to cut our ivy that had grown over their wall (nothing wrong with that). Unfortunately, the contractor did not inform us and the ivy (100ft x 30ft) somehow!!!! manage to detach itself from our side of the wall and collapse, denying our tenants access to the garden. I have spent all morning on-site negotiating a "friendly" resolution of the mess. QED not available for real time discussion.

 

[mully]

Bloomberg have just announced that the NY stock exchange will be closed on Friday re RR funeral.

That will present traders with all the potential problems a long weekend give (deter position taking?)

 

[bracke]

Thanks for the post mully.

As you say an interesting day with ftse having a nibble at 4500, will it take the bait?
I suspect that the US will have to push further up if ftse is to make a significant break above 4500.

I can't resist the pun that your misfortune must have been 'agony Ivy'

For those who are thinking, what is he talking about, there was a radio programme with that as a catchphrase but I can't remember what it was, I was a mere strippling at the time, Perhaps the more yearly challenged among us can remember.

Ivy breaks through support and crashes, is this an omen!

Regards

bracke