FTSE100 July 2004

[FTSE Beater]

Sometimes wonder what we're doing bothering with ftse when it's doing its dow puppet bit. Maybe should be concentrating on the organ grinder!!

Hi Barjon

That's what always annoyed me about trading the FTSE, it is so dependent on what the US does, and then I considered trading the Dow, until I soon realised that the Dow follows the S&P. The S&P is good to trade, but it does tend to jump around a lot, and on a 5min chart it looks very rangebound. On the up side it gets to where it wants to go really quickly - which isn't always a good thing

...so after all that I now trade UK Stocks, which only gets effected by the FTSE, Dow and S&P :cheesy:

Anyway, back to the FTSE

It took out the March (and calender year) low today, so I would be looking for a strong bounce to go long.

Just my thoughts

 

[barjon]

I'm with you FTSE Beater - UK stocks mainly - ftse just to inform those and for a bit of light (and often not so light ) relief.

Looking for the bounce can be a dangerous game, while the trend's down it's looking for shorts that should take first priority

 

[alliance]

Morning all!
Still in my ftse long...just! Lots of UK and US reporting today incl some big names. BP,Glaxo and BAT main ftse ones. Out @ b/e if I have to

 

[bracke]

alliance

"Tempted by dow @ 9000 twice around 8pm, but resisted! Sorry bracke "

Oh ye of little faith.

Why have you gone long the ftse - TA or fundametals? and don't give me any of that 'gut feeling, its at a low so it must go up' rubbish, you know better than that.

Regards

bracke

 

[alliance]

Why have you gone long the ftse - TA or fundametals? and don't give me any of that 'gut feeling, its at a low so it must go up' rubbish, you know better than that.

Do I?
Well bracke, u know how well TA and I get on..............really is just a small speculative punt hoping for a bounce.....ftse now in 6th down week! Dow fut seems to be holding @9900 each time we have visited it..so that was catalyst. I am well aware tho of other commentary suggesting we could slideeeeeeeeee a lot further, hence b/e stop. I might be nuts, but I am not crazyyyyyyy :cheesy:

 

[alliance]

b/e stop hit...surprise surprise Knew i shoulda went with the dow....lol

 

[bracke]

Do I?
Well bracke, u know how well TA and I get on..............really is just a small speculative punt hoping for a bounce.....ftse now in 6th down week! Dow fut seems to be holding @9900 each time we have visited it..so that was catalyst. I am well aware tho of other commentary suggesting we could slideeeeeeeeee a lot further, hence b/e stop. I might be nuts, but I am not crazyyyyyyy :cheesy:

Dear,dear,dear.dear,dear!
So no TA, merely speculation and hope. In short, a pure bet.
So you will be watching the US closely. If luck ( it pains me to use that word ) is with you the US will bounce up to-day at some time, take ftse with it and you can move up your stop or take your lucky gotten gains, if not you breakeven. May the luck be with you.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

b/e stop hit...surprise surprise Knew i shoulda went with the dow....lol

Posts crossed
So are you going with the 'dangerous' dow?

Reagrds

bracke

 

[alliance]

So are you going with the 'dangerous' dow?

If it visits 9000 again 2day whilst I'm screen watching.....quite possibly I will Bracke. However kinda busy 2morrow and away Thurs-Tues so not too troubled if I dont coz certainly dont wanna leave any trades open! Hopefully by time I get back Tues, it will have decided where its going, tho as it will then be August.....the answer might be nowhere!

 

[bracke]

If it visits 9000 again 2day whilst I'm screen watching.....quite possibly I will Bracke. However kinda busy 2morrow and away Thurs-Tues so not too troubled if I dont coz certainly dont wanna leave any trades open! Hopefully by time I get back Tues, it will have decided where its going, tho as it will then be August.....the answer might be nowhere!

Fair comment

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

ftse appears to be creeping up on the back of the dow futures,are we going to see a repeat of yesterday ?

Regards

bracke

ps nearly forgot to mention that this mornings opening gap up was virtually closed before the current up leg, just thought I'd mention it

bracke the gape

 

[alliance]

ps nearly forgot to mention that this mornings opening gap up was virtually closed before the current up leg, just thought I'd mention it

Bracke, for the TA'phobics amongst us...can u explain the significance of this? Does this mean the next leg up could be a genuine move as opposed to a gap filler...or have I lost the plot (again)..lol


(arghhhhhhhh to ftse..on the up again and never went below my stop )

(ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!to Dow, I should have let all those visits to 9900 tempt me after all)

 

[peterpr]

Just a few quick observations:

Today sees the ftse100 50DMA cross below its 200 DMA and it has not had a high above either since 5th July. In other words a serious medium-term down trend is confirmed - and of course the trend is your friend - or ought to be!.

To reinforce that, both the DOW and SPX have not traded above either DMA for 3 straight sessions and the DOW 50DMA is a whisker below its 200 DMA today with the SPX headed that way (currently a 10 point gap or just under 1%)

All three indices are heavilly oversold right now but, nonetheless I remain far more nervous of being caught long than short - on anything other than an intra-day basis at any rate.

 

[bracke]

Bracke, for the TA'phobics amongst us...can u explain the significance of this? Does this mean the next leg up could be a genuine move as opposed to a gap filler...or have I lost the plot (again)..lol


(arghhhhhhhh to ftse..on the up again and never went below my stop )

(ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!to Dow, I should have let all those visits to 9900 tempt me after all)

To the best of my limited knowledge alliance, there is no particular significance in the closing of gaps.
Their existence provides an opportunity to trade the continuance of the gap and then the reversal until the gap is closed. The gap up this morning did exactly that.

It is very annoying when ones stop gets hit and the underlying instrument han't reached it, such are the delights of spread betting and spikes.

Were you watching the dow when it opened, why did you not go long when it started rising?

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

Just a few quick observations:

Today sees the ftse100 50DMA cross below its 200 DMA and it has not had a high above either since 5th July. In other words a serious medium-term down trend is confirmed - and of course the trend is your friend - or ought to be!.

To reinforce that, both the DOW and SPX have not traded above either DMA for 3 straight sessions and the DOW 50DMA is a whisker below its 200 DMA today with the SPX headed that way (currently a 10 point gap or just under 1%)

All three indices are heavilly oversold right now but, nonetheless I remain far more nervous of being caught long than short - on anything other than an intra-day basis at any rate.

I agree totally and would not want to be holding any of the three indices overnight.
To my untutored eye the charts are pointing down but I remain wary of swings within the channel.

Regards

bracke

 

[alliance]

Hi bracke,
I wasn't online when Dow opened, but even if had been...I would not have gone long! I believe it rose yesterday @ the open only to drop sharply to the aforementioned 9000 area so I would have been wary of tat happening again. Over 9800 area I would be more likey to be looking @ shorts!

 

[bracke]

Hi bracke,
I wasn't online when Dow opened, but even if had been...I would not have gone long! I believe it rose yesterday @ the open only to drop sharply to the aforementioned 9000 area so I would have been wary of tat happening again. Over 9800 area I would be more likey to be looking @ shorts!

Having an after lunch nap were you?
You could have gone long and watched it closely, put in a stop at the breakeven and the moved the stop up as the index rose. Then closed at an appropriate resistance level or let it fall to your stop

Regards

bracke

 

[alliance]

Having an after lunch nap were you?
You could have gone long and watched it closely, put in a stop at the breakeven and the moved the stop up as the index rose. Then closed at an appropriate resistance level or let it fall to your stop

lol Bracke, afternoon naps? ur showing ur age! Yes I could have done as u suggested, however anywhere near the 9800 area I wouldnt have been happy to be long...so a no go 4me!

I thot maybe u were gonna congratulate me on my gut feeling "rubbish" .......I certainly wish I had gone with it

 

[bracke]

lol Bracke, afternoon naps? ur showing ur age! Yes I could have done as u suggested, however anywhere near the 9800 area I wouldnt have been happy to be long...so a no go 4me!

I thot maybe u were gonna congratulate me on my gut feeling "rubbish" .......I certainly wish I had gone with it

Good Morning All and alliance

Afternoon naps are something I've heard about not something I do ! ( not often anyway).

Your comment about 9800 has got me confused ( my age again ) as the lowest its been over the last few days is 9914, can you explain please.

Did you go with your 'gut feeling' yesterday ? If not, why not. Could it be that you know it is very tenuous and not supported by analysis. Having said that if you were following the dow yesterday the chart would have supported you.

Perhaps you could deveop a new indicator - AGF on second thoughts GAF(FE) might be better.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

Wakey Wakey Everyone, you'll miss the gap

Anyone trading this morning's opening gap ?


If not, why not, let's hear your thoughts.

Regards

bracke