Good Morning Fellow Threaders
There is a paucity of posts to-day, indeed I am the first at 9.45. Whats the problem is there something you are not telling me!
mully where are you?
I thought that there would be some interest in the ftse gaping up by approx 25 pints over the 4500 level but nary a squeak. I note that it reached pivot R2 (4514 ) but has started to drift down R1 is at 4500 and S1 is 4471.
I note that once again the dow did it's last hour big change which has helped the ftse up.
A response to this post would be appreciated just so that I know someone is reading it.
Regards
bracke
There is a paucity of posts to-day, indeed I am the first at 9.45. Whats the problem is there something you are not telling me!
mully where are you?
I thought that there would be some interest in the ftse gaping up by approx 25 pints over the 4500 level but nary a squeak. I note that it reached pivot R2 (4514 ) but has started to drift down R1 is at 4500 and S1 is 4471.
I note that once again the dow did it's last hour big change which has helped the ftse up.
A response to this post would be appreciated just so that I know someone is reading it.
Regards
bracke
might happenBracke,
Do not feel lonely. Though the very few responses to posts does question whether one's own efforts are worth all the hassle.
FTSE100 has once again stalled around the 4515 level. (Obvious recent resistance level)
For me the real interest is whether the US markets are in the process of breaking out of the consolidation that they have been in since end of January.
Depending on that resolution, will IMHO, determine the outlook for global markets and, of course, the FTSE100 over the next few weeks. Since most people are expecting summer malaise, it would not be surprising (to prove the majority wrong) that there is a confirmed upward break .
But remember trade what you see, not what you think.
Without wanting to upset certain people, it would also be helpful if the likes of Vodafone and HSBC started to perform. (HSBC is doing its little bit this morning)
Do not feel lonely. Though the very few responses to posts does question whether one's own efforts are worth all the hassle.
FTSE100 has once again stalled around the 4515 level. (Obvious recent resistance level)
For me the real interest is whether the US markets are in the process of breaking out of the consolidation that they have been in since end of January.
Depending on that resolution, will IMHO, determine the outlook for global markets and, of course, the FTSE100 over the next few weeks. Since most people are expecting summer malaise, it would not be surprising (to prove the majority wrong) that there is a confirmed upward break .
But remember trade what you see, not what you think.
Without wanting to upset certain people, it would also be helpful if the likes of Vodafone and HSBC started to perform. (HSBC is doing its little bit this morning)
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peterpr
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I'm afraid I'm a bit of a lurker too - but nonetheless appreciate the thread and the posts of Mully et al. I'll try and contribute a bit more.
On-balance I've been bearish for a while now - a sentiment that inevitably colours my trading.
It is therefore ironic that pretty well all my most profitable trades over the past month or so have been longs of intra-day duration and I've had some nasty burns with impulsive shorts.
Last night was a case in point. I watched the US + FTSE futures climbing way past our close and began opening a short position from @ 4495 expecting to bank a few points on the opening swing. Did not forsee a 25 point gap though - and my position averaged just 15. Oh dear. I've just fully closed at a sharp loss and am now looking for 4415 to be tested again before the close.
I agree that we are really hanging on a strong US lead, but there are a lot of jitters in the US markets right now - waiting for next Tue/Wed Interest rate setting meeting for one thing. Personally I 'm not inclined to bank on a sustained US rally before then.
But Hell, I seem to get it wrong all the time so don't pay too much attention to me.
On-balance I've been bearish for a while now - a sentiment that inevitably colours my trading.
It is therefore ironic that pretty well all my most profitable trades over the past month or so have been longs of intra-day duration and I've had some nasty burns with impulsive shorts.
Last night was a case in point. I watched the US + FTSE futures climbing way past our close and began opening a short position from @ 4495 expecting to bank a few points on the opening swing. Did not forsee a 25 point gap though - and my position averaged just 15. Oh dear. I've just fully closed at a sharp loss and am now looking for 4415 to be tested again before the close.
I agree that we are really hanging on a strong US lead, but there are a lot of jitters in the US markets right now - waiting for next Tue/Wed Interest rate setting meeting for one thing. Personally I 'm not inclined to bank on a sustained US rally before then.
But Hell, I seem to get it wrong all the time so don't pay too much attention to me.
dc2000
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Hi Bracke
Its just a target in the system I use I had 4478, 4542, 4517 from Monday
It doesn't look like its gona get there not in 3 hours anyway
As for the US which I normally trade I have lower prices for tomorrow I expect a pump n dump today.
As always nothing in this posting is intended as an invitation to trade
Its just a target in the system I use I had 4478, 4542, 4517 from Monday
It doesn't look like its gona get there not in 3 hours anyway
As for the US which I normally trade I have lower prices for tomorrow I expect a pump n dump today.
As always nothing in this posting is intended as an invitation to trade
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Peterpr
Some observations from a relative novice trader
1 If you saw the US and ftse rising why did you take a short so close to 4500 when if it was breached it was very likely to go to the next level ie. 4515.
2 If the US was rising and continued there was a good chance that the ftse would gap up this morning so why go short?
3 I have come to the conclusion that opening a ftse trade at the end of day or out of hours is fraught with danger. The dow is very unpredictable in the last hour of trading often totally reversing the whole of the days trend and the opening ftse usually responds to the dows closing value in a similar vein.
Regards
bracke
Some observations from a relative novice trader
1 If you saw the US and ftse rising why did you take a short so close to 4500 when if it was breached it was very likely to go to the next level ie. 4515.
2 If the US was rising and continued there was a good chance that the ftse would gap up this morning so why go short?
3 I have come to the conclusion that opening a ftse trade at the end of day or out of hours is fraught with danger. The dow is very unpredictable in the last hour of trading often totally reversing the whole of the days trend and the opening ftse usually responds to the dows closing value in a similar vein.
Regards
bracke
I'm generally a lot happier being short of this market and this has restricted my trading recently as like Peter i have been burnt trying to pick tops and have been refining my entry and exit criteria leading to less trades.
I used to look for 50-75 point swings to make my money but recently have had to scale back my targets to 15 to 20 points but increase my position size and thus risk to compensate, this has moved me from being a swing trader over several days to being an intraday trader, not something i really enjoy or would want to do for long periods.
It is tough making money in this market eg today i went short Sep at 4524 and covered at 4417, went short again at 4415 and covered at average of 4509.5, so made money but i would not call this enjoyable trading, more like jobbing the market. Still moneys money. I agree a breakout seems likely but can't think what the catalyst could be for one to the upside.....downside is obvious with 30th June looming but market action does suggest move higher.................
splash
I used to look for 50-75 point swings to make my money but recently have had to scale back my targets to 15 to 20 points but increase my position size and thus risk to compensate, this has moved me from being a swing trader over several days to being an intraday trader, not something i really enjoy or would want to do for long periods.
It is tough making money in this market eg today i went short Sep at 4524 and covered at 4417, went short again at 4415 and covered at average of 4509.5, so made money but i would not call this enjoyable trading, more like jobbing the market. Still moneys money. I agree a breakout seems likely but can't think what the catalyst could be for one to the upside.....downside is obvious with 30th June looming but market action does suggest move higher.................
splash
splasher
"It is tough making money in this market eg today i went short Sep at 4524 and covered at 4417, went short again at 4415 and covered at average of 4509.5, so made money but i would not call this enjoyable trading"
Please excuse my ignorance but can you describe the above in a little more detail please.
It's the covering part I am unclear on
Regards
bracke
"It is tough making money in this market eg today i went short Sep at 4524 and covered at 4417, went short again at 4415 and covered at average of 4509.5, so made money but i would not call this enjoyable trading"
Please excuse my ignorance but can you describe the above in a little more detail please.
It's the covering part I am unclear on
Regards
bracke
Bracke, covering means in the above example buying back my short posistion to go flat as i thought the market was turning up again, it did not, so i went short again slightly lower and bought back when it hit my target of 4508.5 (previous days high)
If i were long a would sell my position to cover and if i was very confident would reverse to go from net long to net short
Hope that helps
If i were long a would sell my position to cover and if i was very confident would reverse to go from net long to net short
Hope that helps
splasher
Thanks for your reply. The use of different terminology to describe the same act is confusing to us novices. That's a general observation and not one aimed at you.
The figures you quote don't seem to be correct. Am I correct or incorrect.?
I am currently short the Sept ftse at 4511. This being based on my expectation of this mornings gap being filled. Yes I know I should have got in earlier but I failed to rise for the occasion.
Regards
bracke
Thanks for your reply. The use of different terminology to describe the same act is confusing to us novices. That's a general observation and not one aimed at you.
The figures you quote don't seem to be correct. Am I correct or incorrect.?
I am currently short the Sept ftse at 4511. This being based on my expectation of this mornings gap being filled. Yes I know I should have got in earlier but I failed to rise for the occasion.
Regards
bracke
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