FTSE100 July 2004

[Hooya]

Fin you have a PM

 

[peterpr]

"a short - net at 4365 - open from last Thursday morning and went away for a few days with a very long stop on. Bearish view thoroughly vidicated although I covered too early this am."

not sure it was thoroughly vindicated though

You're right. "Thoroughly" was an overstatement.

I'm just more comfortable with extended short positions right now and felt maybe a bit too pleased with myself that it turned out OK

 

[Hooya]

still a great trade

but I was more pointing out how we as traders seek being vidicated from our trades. Not sure that we should be that opinionated about our positions. Easier said than done. LOL

 

[alliance]

Hi
Closed my long @ 371 for +27 net.....coz loads of US data and Q2's out 2morrow, and by-elections here and....and.....oh yeah, and basically I am NEVER usually this lucky so thot (in classic novice fashion), that I should take the money, run..and re-group! On days like this I really wish I understood TA

F.I.O. Among Q2 results out 2morrow are:

Q2: Citigroup Inc, Comerica Inc, Dow Jones & Co Inc, Eaton, Fifth Third Bancorp, Genuine Parts, International Business Machines, Marriott International, PepsiCo, PMC-Sierra Inc, PPG Industries, Rowan Cos Inc, SLM Corp, Southwest Airlines, Stryker, Tribune, UnitedHealth Group Inc, Wachovia Corp!
One or two biggies in there!

Data due:
US: W/e 10/7 initial jobless claims (1330 BST), May business inventories (1330 BST), June PPI (1330 BST), July Empire State manufacturing survey (1330 BST), June industrial production (1415 BST), June capacity utilisation (1415 BST), July Philadelphia Fed survey (1700 BST);

Quiet day for news

Hi Hooya, good to see u posting here again..thot we had lost u

Had a thot...why doesn't Ftse Beater post on the Ftse thread? Anyone know, or should I pm him and ask politely?

 

[alliance]

Hi Bracke,
Ty 4 ur kind words! Sorry about ur trade, but dont feel too bad...my rare success was more by accident than design! I am sure lessons were learned, so it wasnt a complete loss. I have learned some VERY expensive ones!

(btw, pls stop grinding ur teeth...have u seen how much a visit to the dentist costs these days)???

 

[peterpr]

Morning all

I don't claim formal tecnical expertise with charts and indicators but I do spend a good few hours every day studying them and, like most here, invest/trade my own cash on what I believe they say. I guess you could call that expertise of a sort.

Here's how I see one technical aspect of the broad equity market right now - and the ftse100 in particular. A rationale for the bears if you like

The 50DMA last crossed the 200DMA in June 2003. It was an upward cross and signalled about 80% of the subsequent upward move. You have to go right back to October 1999 to find the 50 crossing the 200 downwards and that happenned close to the historic 6,500 highs and just prior to a 45% run downwards.

After falling below the 200 on Friday 2nd July the index has remained firmly below both MA's. For the 10 years or so of my historical data, that has only ever happened just before a seriously major bear run - unless someone knows different of course.

I should have picked 'Jeremiah' as my ID

 

[alliance]

After falling below the 200 on Friday 2nd July the index has remained firmly below both MA's. For the 10 years or so of my historical data, that has only ever happened just before a seriously major bear run - unless someone knows different of course.

I should have picked 'Jeremiah' as my ID

Morning Jerry

I have absolutely no TA knowledge, but I have read similar analysis to yours over last cpl of days! A short looks very tempting, especially with all the data due out today. Even just one bit of bad news there could be the catalyst to really break lower in this very volatile mkt. However, both Wall St and Ftse have Lazarus like qualities which may hold me in check

 

[bracke]

Hi Bracke,
Ty 4 ur kind words! Sorry about ur trade, but dont feel too bad...my rare success was more by accident than design! I am sure lessons were learned, so it wasnt a complete loss. I have learned some VERY expensive ones!

(btw, pls stop grinding ur teeth...have u seen how much a visit to the dentist costs these days)???

Hello alliance

If you can keep having these 'accidents' they then become design.

Most of us learn from our mistakes, unfortunately we sometimes have have to make them 2 or 3 times before we finally learn, plus they are costly

Grinding now ceased.

Happy accidents to you

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

peterpr

Thank you for your observation relating to the 50dma & 200dma they provide food for thought and suggest added caution before going long or indeed purchasing shares.

Regards

bracke

 

[jonnyy40]

FTse just died on Mytrack again.For those using esignal,how often do you suffer ftse/dax outages?

 

[jonnyy40]

And is there any noticeable lag as in Mytrack?

 

[jonnyy40]

As compared to the TWS display

 

[bracke]

Somewhat lethargic on this thread to-day. Must be the hot weather getting to everyone.

On the other hand it could be a touch of ' the wait and see' market direction.
It has the feel of pensiveness.

Regards

bracke

 

[alliance]

Somewhat lethargic on this thread to-day. Must be the hot weather getting to everyone.

On the other hand it could be a touch of ' the wait and see' market direction.
It has the feel of pensiveness.

Regards

bracke

Hi Bracke,
No lethargy here, just wasn't experienced (therefore confident) enuff to trade thru all the data and results today so took most of day off. Tried to go long on the ftse after US close, @ 316 (screen) but order taken @ 321 (IG) grrr Also had a possible mental aberration and went long on dow..again expecting 132 (screen) actual 140 (IG) Being aware of options expiries tomorrow @ 10.30, I may well be pushing my luck on these trades!

I shall log on tomorrow morning with some trepidation


jonnyy40:
Sorry, can't help.

 

[FTSE Beater]

Hi All

I was asked earlier today about my views on the FTSE, so here goes:

The above chart is the only thing I could find of interest. A 60min chart showing a large descending triangle. With the Dow closing near it's LOD, the FTSE is expected to go lower, and as Alliance says, the FTSE is being quoted at 4320, so therefore the price is theoretically below the support line. Things could get interesting tomorrow

Just my thoughts....and they're worth exactly what you paid for them :cheesy:

 

[RogerM]

The diamond top on the daily FTSE is reminiscent of the same formation on the weekly chart in 1999/2000. Min target is 4108.

 

[alliance]

FTSE Beater]Hi All

Just my thoughts....and they're worth exactly what you paid for them :cheesy:

Morning all!

Hi FB, Tnx 4 the input

Roger: So glad I didnt read that last nt..wouldn't have slept at all!

Pleasantly surprised not only to still to be in the game on both indices this morning, but also a lil in profit......still, the day is young!!!

 

[Hooya]

You might have been interested in the diamond top article that I sent out with me newsletter the other day.

 

[Hooya]

FTSE beater, and if you use the major lower high you get this

 

[Fluke]

Hooya.
Where do you post your news letter,I read one of you news letters on TT the other day,but cannot find any more.Hope you will let me know.
Regards