FTSE100 - December 2004

[peterpr]

Techracer

Agreed. Appart from the mid-November peak around 4800 its been flat-lining around that old 4730ish resistance turned support from the mid-October peak. That shallow downchannel has become pretty well established. Notice how the rising support line from August intersected the new downchannel resistance line yesterday. That also coincided with feverish activity - the higest traded volume since last March - and it ended with a down day! My provisional interpretation? A serious effort to breach the new downchannel and re-establish the old ascending one which failed. Had it succeeded there would have been a LOT of short covering which would have sent the index much higher. A number of other indicators cautioning about further upside too.

The only real threat to a revisit to the the dc support (at least) over the next week or so is the season, IMHO - just the time for some more 'irrational exuberance' I guess, so I will be erring on the side of caution.

 

[barjon]

peter et al

mmm, surprisingly high volume yesterday given the season but the down move wasn't particularly strong was it (the mid point of Monday's long white held). Maybe interesting that October's retracement was about 3%, this one reached about 2.5% (so far) and bounced around the fib50% of the October to November move. Nothing to strike fear and trembling in us bully boys as yet, but given the couple of weeks congestion I suppose we can expect a sharp move one way or the other when it goes.

good trading

jon

 

[peterpr]

Impressive congestion on Footsie. Yet another bounce down off the new DC resistance yesterday with another close right on that 6 week old s/r 4730ish line. Then another run up to the DC resistance again this morning which is converging on a flattening 50DMA. Yesterday's volume respectable but still unable to break up. The whole upleg from late October looking pretty tired in fact. Santa Clause says we're going to get an upside break; technicals (or most of mine anyway) say we should (at least) revisit the 4640ish DC support first

 

[neil]

The last volume bar, if I read it correctly, seems quite high but resulted in no real price advance - supply?

 

[peterpr]

A 20 point up day into the close then a drop of over 10 points through the auction ! That means another failure at the DC resistance line and another 30 odd points left to get on the right side of the August rising support line.

Conflicting signals me thinks but its beginning to look less rosy for the bulls. A sense that the years highs OUGHT to be taken out into the NY but jaded rally attempts that lack conviction - 14 day RSI in neutral territory; both 50 and 200 DMA's pretty well flattened out - ready to turn??

 

[daylight]

I think we have a tug of war situation, we failed to hit the 4830 retracement in the going up, and now we are falling because of that, people believe we're going to test 4600 again. on the other hand as barjon said, a bullish view that ftse didn't fall to the retracement line. I like situations like these, one can take both long and short positions during the week. my last hope today was that us would throw us out of the DC up towards 4800, but that failed to materialise. tomorrow i hope it opens up and goes down like a typical friday.

 

[maxpain]

I believe FTSE will hit the 4650 area in 3-4 trading days (three black crows?). It´s even possible that in the early Jan it could go below 4600. Time will tell..

adding a weekly chart telling the same story..

 

[gullible]

Maxpian,

I believe your prediction of downward movement may well turnout to be a good one.
The only thing is, is there going to be Santa Clause rally this year? If there is, from which level 4650 or 4730?. Furthermore, bonuses and performance statistics (for advertising and marketing) may well be at stake towards the end of the year.
January 2005 is likely to see FTSE below 4600

 

[barjon]

mmm, the choppiness over the last few weeks has left my swing chart looking a real mess

If you work by the full high/low range you will probably say we are in a new down trend and will have just received a sell signal as Friday's price took out the low of the swing high bar. If you are more conservative and wait for a close to confirm the swing low/high you might still be thinking continuation and be wondering if you'll be stopped out by a close below 4675 following the buy signal 5 bars from the end. Probably best to wait for the dust to settle one way or another ie: below or 4675 or above 4755.

I wouldn't be surprised to see it stay within this range next week - but it is the silly season and anything might happen

good trading

jon

 

[FetteredChinos]

surely you arent getting bearish Barjon?

not sure if there is another spare space in Camp Bear.


nice analysis though... much appreciated...



FC

 

[Fluke]

I have done some fib calculations abcd extensions and the fib grid 4819/4551and come up with a target range of 4660 to 4653.This should bring us to the 0.618 retracement of 4653.
I agree with the above posts by MAXPAIN and gullible,re 4650.

Lets just see!!!

 

[maxpain]

Could be so that the big players are taking profits before Year End. Rally might not start until the week before or after Jan OEX when almost everybody are on the wrong side. Guess we´ve had distribution last weeks on top and it takes a couple of weeks for them to reload. Everybody is expecting a rally now and that´s worrying me. SPX at 1170/75 is also in my head.

 

[gullible]

Dow closed at highest level since April 2001? S&P closed over 1200, NASDAQ 100 closed over 1600, FTSE closed at 4733, after hours FTSE futures were up, futures price to buy reached 4760, could this be a start of Santa rally?

I will most likely be long tomorrow morning and probably all the upto Christmas Eve.

 

[maxpain]

Dow closed at highest level since April 2001? S&P closed over 1200, NASDAQ 100 closed over 1600, FTSE closed at 4733, after hours FTSE futures were up, futures price to buy reached 4760, could this be a start of Santa rally?

I will most likely be long tomorrow morning and probably all the upto Christmas Eve.

Still don´t trust what I see - low volumes for a rally. Tomorrow these figures could end the last rally.

 

[barjon]

mmm, well money has got to go somewhere and I don't see any wholesale switching out of stocks in the US until bond yields pick up.

Anyway, enough of what I think - I've already got Mully's trade what you see and not what you think pencilled in as one of my New Year resolutions (again )

May I wish ftse followers a Very Merry Christmas and may the New Year bring you points, points and more points rolling in whether your'e long or short.

Good trading and good cheer folks.

jon

 

[bracke]

maxpain

What a wet blanket you are. Do you not realise it's Christmas, if we can't delude ourselves at this time of year when can we Eat, drink and go long and let the devil take the hindmost.

Just being serious for a moment - this is a serious business. I read to-day that at the last Bank Of England interest rate meeting there was some discussion that the next rate change may be downward. If that occurs it will be a fillip to the market. I appreciate that this is of little interest to the flybynight traders, sorry, daytraders but it may interest the more mature and considered among us.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

barjon

Let me be the first to congratulate you on you 1000th

You've worn well.

Regards

bracke

 

[maxpain]

maxpain

What a wet blanket you are.
I appreciate that this is of little interest to the flybynight traders, sorry, daytraders but it may interest the more mature and considered among us.

Regards

bracke

Lucky you! You must be one of those never losing traders long or short. Pathetic! Don´t you realise that this market incl. the real estate business are relying on the rate level! To attract money you use a rate tool. You have one more option and that is to start printing money. Lot of wise guys around the boards nowadays. Is it a second attempt of the "New Economy" you are trying to teach out? Try read some economic history and you also could catch the big picture.

 

[peterpr]

Maxpain:

Bracke's sense of humour can sometimes be a little obscure - but I can't recall it ever being intended to antagonize.

If memory serves, he's also had his share of losers.

Like you I tend to the bearish on fundamentals, the big picture, history etc. - and I take my share of ribbing for it (not to mention losses that are probably the result of allowing it to intrude on trading more than it should).

Truth is my LT investments (pension etc) are positioned on very bearish assumtions. BUT .... for trading purposes, I still think we could see quite a bit more upside on the Footsie, DOW S&P etc before economic reality and sanity start to assert themselves again. No idea when that might be. In fact, since received wisdom seems to be that stock markets are overdue for a tanking, the contrarian in me is beginning to believe that they probably have quite a bit more upside left.

'Trade what you see not what you think' is a good maxim - though I think Mr Mully probably gleaned it from Chick Goslin's 'Trading Day by Day'

Bracke:

'let the devil take the hindmost' - Thanks for that. A current project of mine is to document English Language expressions and words that owe their existence to hunting with hounds. That is a classic which I had overlooked.

 

[maxpain]

Maxpain:

Bracke's sense of humour can sometimes be a little obscure - but I can't recall it ever being intended to antagonize.

If memory serves, he's also had his share of losers.

Like you I tend to the bearish on fundamentals, the big picture, history etc. - and I take my share of ribbing for it (not to mention losses that are probably the result of allowing it to intrude on trading more than it should).

Truth is my LT investments (pension etc) are positioned on very bearish assumptions. BUT .... for trading purposes, I still think we could see quite a bit more upside on the Footsie, DOW S&P etc before economic reality and sanity start to assert themselves again. No idea when that might be. In fact, since received wisdom seems to be that stock markets are overdue for a tanking, the contrarian in me is beginning to believe that they probably have quite a bit more upside left.

'Trade what you see not what you think' is a good maxim - though I think Mr Mully probably gleaned it from Chick Goslin's 'Trading Day by Day'

Bracke:

'let the devil take the hindmost' - Thanks for that. A current project of mine is to document English Language expressions and words that owe their existence to hunting with hounds. That is a classic which I had overlooked.

all is a matter of opinion - 4790 +/- some points. I guess this place is aimed for the purpose of posting your thoughts. That Joke has been after me before and I tried to figure him out before answering him but I didn´t find anything of substance to hit him with. He´s probably just socialising on this board. In Sweden we have a joke translated to English - "Reverend Smith hasn´t got any opinion of anything" -

GL to Yourself!