FTSE100 - January 2005

[barjon]

now to ftse week.

Bit messy looking and indecisive. Given the last two indecisive spinning top candles I'd be thinking up on monday but for dow which was 100 or so down after ftse closed. Another sharp down followed by a grinding rise may be on the cards again? I'm neutral/bullish at the moment.

Triangle anyone?

good trading

jon

 

[maxpain]

Just betting 4645 sometimes next week as an ST bottom.

 

[bracke]

Just betting 4645 sometimes next week as an ST bottom.

That would be a 175 ( 3.63% ) fall. What makes you think that will occur?

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

Interesting that dow is off over 3.5% (400 or so points) since the end of last year but ftse is unchanged.

 

[bracke]

Interesting that dow is off over 3.5% (400 or so points) since the end of last year but ftse is unchanged.

Indeed but comparing the two from November 2004 the dow had a bigger run up.ie from 8 Nov to 31 Dec dow rose 392 (3.77%) ftse rose 97 (2.06%).

Arguable the dow is demonstrating its customary volatility whilst the ftse is an example of British reserve.

ftse appears to be holding on to the 4800 level and not to be dislodged by the dows antics....yet.

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

mmm, depends where you start from I suppose.

31 December 2003 to date: dow - 0.5% ftse + 7.5%
2003 bottom to date: dow + 43% ftse + 46%

All tells the trained mind something I guess, but quite what escapes me

 

[bracke]

mmm, depends where you start from I suppose.

31 December 2003 to date: dow - 0.5% ftse + 7.5%
2003 bottom to date: dow + 43% ftse + 46%

All tells the trained mind something I guess, but quite what escapes me

The chart below helps to show the bigger picture, dow way ahead of ftse.

Regards

bracke

 

[gullible]

In the UK it was, so that all you brits could sleep in after binge drinking all night and kissing lamp posts !!!!

Where talking about the Real Markets in the good ol 'U S A !!!

While you lot were fast asleep the markets changed trend that's why your still probably bullish, when the smart money is Bearish :cheesy:

Knucklehead,
After Monday's and Tuesday's performance of FTSE, is your downard forecast still intact?

 

[peterpr]

mmm, depends where you start from I suppose.
31 December 2003 to date: dow - 0.5% ftse + 7.5%
2003 bottom to date: dow + 43% ftse + 46%

Quite so.

But - if you take the 2000 highs to date, the DOW is down just 9.5% whereas the ftse is still down a whopping 29%.

 

[barjon]

Quite so.

But - if you take the 2000 highs to date, the DOW is down just 9.5% whereas the ftse is still down a whopping 29%.

hi, peter - where you been?

Well we've got the whole set of stats now! Looking at bracke's chart it seems I need to place my next trade in the 2025 futures

good trading

jon

 

[peterpr]

hi, peter - where you been?
Well we've got the whole set of stats now! Looking at bracke's chart it seems I need to place my next trade in the 2025 futures
jon

Hi Jon / All

Been busy busy: new software to learn; researching 'till my eyes pop etc etc. 2005 starting better for me - got to concentrate on keeping it that way.

My short-term take: A bit more upside left in the current DOW bounce which should help ftse to break its post 2000 high - especially since the 250 is just nudging its all-time high as I write. How far? No idea but momentum and short covering ought to carry it 50 points or so - after that ? Well now - it must surely be due for a pretty serious downside correction at least.

Re earlier posts on the topic, here's an interesting product of my new toy - the ftse/DOW ratio weekly and monthly

 

[peterpr]

Further to post 71. I've been looking at the monthly ftse chart. Current month is the sixth successive positive (so far!). You've got to go back to 1999 in the run-up to the 2000 crash to find another greater than three (7 in that case) - volatility and total gain was much bigger (43% -v- a measly 12.5%) but a down month is statistically overdue.

 

[barjon]

Further to post 71. I've been looking at the monthly ftse chart. Current month is the sixth successive positive (so far!). You've got to go back to 1999 in the run-up to the 2000 crash to find another greater than three (7 in that case) - volatility and total gain was much bigger (43% -v- a measly 12.5%) but a down month is statistically overdue.

peter

just back from some golf - lovely day but a bit nippy.

your new toys look interesting, but I see they still haven't stopped you chasing the bear hope your powder's not got damp when he does appear.

regards

jon

 

[barjon]

Well that was the week that was.

Tuesday triggered a swing buy @ 818 (only half still running) but a couple of warning lights appeared on the dashboard after 3 retreats in quick succession when challenging 7 Jan high. Friday's fall (on lower volume) held above the long white mid-point (824) which caused one of those lights to start flickering, but it may burst back into a steady glow and another warning light appear if that mid-point goes.

Weekly still looking bullish - first warning light'll come if 4754 goes.

good trading

jon

 

[bracke]

Well that was the week that was.

Tuesday triggered a swing buy @ 818 (only half still running) but a couple of warning lights appeared on the dashboard after 3 retreats in quick succession when challenging 7 Jan high. Friday's fall (on lower volume) held above the long white mid-point (824) which caused one of those lights to start flickering, but it may burst back into a steady glow and another warning light appear if that mid-point goes.

Weekly still looking bullish - first warning light'll come if 4754 goes.

good trading

jon

barjon

With all those lights flickering and glowing I hope you are not in danger of blowing a fuse.

It's difficult not to wonder whether ftse is going to go for broke and head to 5000. I can hear dbp telling me not to forecast but to analyse the chart.

Having looked at your weekly chart it is still trending upward. Your daily chart s/r suggestions appear to be fair enough.

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

barjon

With all those lights flickering and glowing I hope you are not in danger of blowing a fuse.

It's difficult not to wonder whether ftse is going to go for broke and head to 5000. I can hear dbp telling me not to forecast but to analyse the chart.

Having looked at your weekly chart it is still trending upward. Your daily chart s/r suggestions appear to be fair enough.

Regards

bracke

bracke



I don't want another bruise from db but, in my opinion, I'm always forecasting when I enter a trade even if I tart it up with a probability percentage and call it something else. I'm not entering on a coin toss and if I go long it's because I think (forecast) that the price will rise - I know, of course, that I'll be wrong a healthy percentage of the time.

good trading (forecasted or not)

jon

 

[Roberto]

in my opinion, I'm always forecasting when I enter a trade even if I tart it up with a probability percentage and call it something else

I couldn't agree more. No point in pretending otherwise: it's not intellectually honest. At the end of the day, it's all about our perceptions and calculations of probability, n'est-ce pas? I tart it up with the probability percentage (without which I wouldn't be doing it at all) and call it what it is: a forecast.

 

[cj12]

Does anyone on this thread make any money from trading the FTSE futures. I have been thinking of day trading it. by catching 3 to 6 points scalping. any advice from traders who play this instrument

sun

 

[bracke]

barjon & Roberto

I hope that dbp dosen't see your posts which might be described as blasphemous.

My dictionary describes forecast as: estimate, conjecture, beforehand, foresight, prudence (rare).

I suppose it depends on what basis the forecast is made. If one is using a 'scientific' approach that has been tried and tested and the chance of success and failure are known then the forecast has substance, if however the forecast is made without this information it is really little more than a guess.

A rose by any other name would be as sweet, therefore a fully analysed trade might be named a forecast.

However as I do not want to incur the wrath of you know who, I will disavow all knowledge of your heinous ways.

Regards

not bracke

 

[barjon]

mornin' all

tested resistance becoming support? we shall see.

good trading

jon