Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
scalping off that res so far
no trend in sight..as yet
no trend in sight..as yet
FTSE, DAX, DOW Trading Ideas and discussions
- Thread starter Jessi_trader
- Start date
- Watchers 114
ffsear
Guest Author
- Messages
- 2,304
- Likes
- 551
Crapital spreads send me this every morning. May as well share!!
DAILY BRIEFING: Friday 20th March 2015
· MARKET SUMMARY
Despite seeing marginal gains on the open, markets remain unable to get any directional conviction as competing cues tug in different directions. Although central bank dovishness is providing some support, another disappointing meeting between Greece and a select few of its creditors failed to produce any progress once again. With Greece rapidly running out of money and again teetering on the edge of default, Angele Merkel stood firm early this morning against pleading by the Greek PM Tsipras and prodded him to speed up efforts to overhaul his country’s gasping economy in return for cash.
With the FTSE 100 index staring down the 7’000 figure there is little economic data to spur on the bulls today, however, Chief Economist of the Bank of England Andy Haldane stated, ‘the BoE must be ready to cut rates if low inflation becomes entrenched in the UK, and the chances of a rate rise and a rate cut are evenly balanced.’ Something to mull over while watching the rugby tomorrow.
And do not forget today we have the combination of a new moon, a solar eclipse and Quadruple Witching. Only the latter should affect markets though!
DEFINITION OF 'QUADRUPLE WITCHING'
The expiration date of various stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures. All stock options contracts expire on the third Friday of each month and once every quarter - on the third Friday of March, June, September and December - all four asset classes expire on the same day. Because futures and options investors must close out of their positions on those days, they often witness increased trading volume. Investopedia
· Equities/Indices
LCG- ‘ US markets pulled back in yesterday’s session as the rally on the back of the dovish Fed became overheated. USD strength resumed its progreess putting further pressure on commodity prices, pushing energy and material sectors lower.’
Goldman Sachs- ‘ SPX retraces some of yesterday’s gains but does close off the lows of the day. Move in commods had materials (-1.75%) and energy (-1.7%) really underperform the rest of the market. At the close, SPX at 2,089.27 (-0.49%), DOW at 17,959.03 (-0.65%), and NASDAQ at 4,992.38 (+.19%).’
FTSE (June)
Market Price: 6917
Preferred case: 1-3 week view, bounce expected to 6830, drop to 6670/6555 max target 6400
Resistance:6960, 7060
Supports: 6841,6785
Flat neutral intraday
DAX (June)
Market Price: 12002
Preferred case: Bullish
Resistance: 12250, 12600/12715
Support: 11750,11730
Target 12060/12250 max
Alternative case: 11750/11700 broken, drop to 11485,11400
Equities Highlights
A new in hours all time high of 6982.79 was reached yesterday, with our rolling price almost touching 6990 this morning.
TSB; +1.7%
It will be a short lived period back in public ownership for TSB, they have agreed the takeover from Spanish bank Sabadell. Having IPO’d at 260p in June, the 340p per share deal represents a tidy 30.7% gain for any investors who held on since the flotation.
Lloyds; +0.5%
Continuing the above story, 50% shareholder Lloyds will sell 9.99% of its stake as part of the deal and has given an “irrevocable undertaking” to sell the rest to the Spanish bank in the future.
Tesco; +0.5%
The supermarket has taken back ownership of 21 stores in a deal with British land, which is being reported as part of their plan to turnaround their main UK business.
Tullow Oil; +4%
The African oil producer leads us higher today, as they have raised $450mn of capital from existing lenders to boost their financial position. Regularly at the bottom of the table recently, causing them to drop out of the FTSE 100, this is a rare piece of good news to help continue to lift the shares away from their recent bottoming out earlier this week around 280p.
Standard Chartered; -0.5%
The war of words continues over the Asian focussed bank. We see another ratings change today, cut to sell, by Investec, and the FT reports a number of big investors warns the bank to leave its UK headquarters following the increase in the bank levy in the budget this week.
Pennon Group; +1%
“British regional water and waste handling company Pennon Group has appointed John Parker as its new chairman, to succeed Ken Harvey when he leaves the board on July 31, the company said on Friday.” Reuters.
Berkeley Group; +1%
The upmarket homebuilder affirms earnings guidance as demand in London and Southern England is holding up.
CRH; +3%
Shareholders approve plans to take assets from the merger of Lafarge and Holcim that they are required to cell to get their merger deal passed the regulators.
Persimmon; -5%
The company agreed a large return of capital to shareholders recently and this has been stripped out this morning.
Off exchange news, but pertinent to our supermarkets; “German discounter Aldi, which has long avoided online sales as not profitable enough, is planning to trial e-commerce in Britain and possibly other countries too, including its home market, a trade journal reported on Thursday.” Reuters.
· FX
Deutsche Bank: ‘A growing number of US corporations have started to voice frustration with the strong USD. Even when the USD sharply strengthened against the JPY amid the early Abe market in 2013, the USD index held at around 80, demonstrating the currency was not that strong. However, since the middle of last year, the EUR and JPY have accelerated their decline against the USD, while the latter has also continued to strengthen against other currencies. The USD index has increased 25% since mid-2014 and 12% in the last three months alone, suddenly rising to its highest level in 12 years. Naturally, such as situation is creating earnings fallout that is hard to ignore.’
EURUSD
LCG: ‘Currently our technical information is calling for bearish euro outlook to remain but we highlight some of the fundamental commentary from the banks indicating a short term rebound could be expected. We recommend keeping an eye on the Greek and German rhetoric into the weekend.’
Morgan Stanley: ‘The dollar rebounded from the biggest drop in six years versus the euro; and While structurally EUR remains a weak currency, Fed-induced asset volatility should lead to a temporary and short-lived EUR advance.’
Nomura: ‘"The price action has been clear. After less than 24 hours, we have retraced almost the entire (partly crazy) move from yesterday in EURUSD. Hence, the downside trend remains in play, likely driven by the underlying fixed income outflows from the Eurozone. But the speed of the move down from here may be slowed by the new signal from the Fed’
Market price 1.0675
Preferred case bearish
Resistance: 1.0730
Target: 1.0600, 1.0510
Alternative case: 1.0730 surpassed, rise to 1.0820 mid-term resistance.
USDCAD
Goldman Sachs- ‘After yesterday’s 4% peak to trough move in the EUR, the single currency aggressively sold off from Wednesday’s 1.1061 highs to close today only slightly higher than pre FOMC levels (1.0625 going in to the event vs 1.0660 close today). Even for those who have less conviction on the strong USD trend, the single currency still seems to be a place to concentrate risk, given ECB QE, Greece concerns, etc. The USD recovered modestly against the commodity complex as well but not to the same extent.’
Market price 1.2678
***Update *** - Market stopped its setback on the 55-Day moving average. Reintegration of the 1.2660 level has ignited a rise.
Preference: Bullish
1.2620/2610 support, rise expected 1.2730 target 1.2820
Alternative case: 1.2620/2610 breached, drop to 1.2525 max 1.2440/2930
· COMMODITIES
Gold
LCG: 'Gold prices extended their recovery after the Fed’s signal of a slower pace in hiking. Higher interest rates would cut the precious metal’s appeal as it offers returns only through price appreciation thus pushing investors in assets with better yields prospects'.
Market Price: 1168.9
Preferred case: Bounce before drop, bounce expected to 1184 max 1200, then drop to 1150 before 1135
Resistances: 1184, 1200
Supports: 1150,1135
Alternative – 1200 surpassed rise to 1223
WTI (May)
LCG: 'Amid acceleration in production, the overall crude supplies in the US now reached 458.8 million barrels, the highest level in weekly data since August 1982. As a consequence the WTI prices renewed their plunge and are trading near the weakest mark in six years. Meanwhile Kuwaiti oil Minister said OPEC has no choice but to keep pumping to maintain market share'.
Market Price: 45.37
Preferred case: Bearish below 47.15, drop expected to 43.10 max 41.95
Resistances: 47.15, 49.00
Supports: 43.10, 41.95
Alternative – 47.15 surpassed, rise to 48.10 before 49.00
Many thanks and kind regards,
DAILY BRIEFING: Friday 20th March 2015
· MARKET SUMMARY
Despite seeing marginal gains on the open, markets remain unable to get any directional conviction as competing cues tug in different directions. Although central bank dovishness is providing some support, another disappointing meeting between Greece and a select few of its creditors failed to produce any progress once again. With Greece rapidly running out of money and again teetering on the edge of default, Angele Merkel stood firm early this morning against pleading by the Greek PM Tsipras and prodded him to speed up efforts to overhaul his country’s gasping economy in return for cash.
With the FTSE 100 index staring down the 7’000 figure there is little economic data to spur on the bulls today, however, Chief Economist of the Bank of England Andy Haldane stated, ‘the BoE must be ready to cut rates if low inflation becomes entrenched in the UK, and the chances of a rate rise and a rate cut are evenly balanced.’ Something to mull over while watching the rugby tomorrow.
And do not forget today we have the combination of a new moon, a solar eclipse and Quadruple Witching. Only the latter should affect markets though!
DEFINITION OF 'QUADRUPLE WITCHING'
The expiration date of various stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures. All stock options contracts expire on the third Friday of each month and once every quarter - on the third Friday of March, June, September and December - all four asset classes expire on the same day. Because futures and options investors must close out of their positions on those days, they often witness increased trading volume. Investopedia
· Equities/Indices
LCG- ‘ US markets pulled back in yesterday’s session as the rally on the back of the dovish Fed became overheated. USD strength resumed its progreess putting further pressure on commodity prices, pushing energy and material sectors lower.’
Goldman Sachs- ‘ SPX retraces some of yesterday’s gains but does close off the lows of the day. Move in commods had materials (-1.75%) and energy (-1.7%) really underperform the rest of the market. At the close, SPX at 2,089.27 (-0.49%), DOW at 17,959.03 (-0.65%), and NASDAQ at 4,992.38 (+.19%).’
FTSE (June)
Market Price: 6917
Preferred case: 1-3 week view, bounce expected to 6830, drop to 6670/6555 max target 6400
Resistance:6960, 7060
Supports: 6841,6785
Flat neutral intraday
DAX (June)
Market Price: 12002
Preferred case: Bullish
Resistance: 12250, 12600/12715
Support: 11750,11730
Target 12060/12250 max
Alternative case: 11750/11700 broken, drop to 11485,11400
Equities Highlights
A new in hours all time high of 6982.79 was reached yesterday, with our rolling price almost touching 6990 this morning.
TSB; +1.7%
It will be a short lived period back in public ownership for TSB, they have agreed the takeover from Spanish bank Sabadell. Having IPO’d at 260p in June, the 340p per share deal represents a tidy 30.7% gain for any investors who held on since the flotation.
Lloyds; +0.5%
Continuing the above story, 50% shareholder Lloyds will sell 9.99% of its stake as part of the deal and has given an “irrevocable undertaking” to sell the rest to the Spanish bank in the future.
Tesco; +0.5%
The supermarket has taken back ownership of 21 stores in a deal with British land, which is being reported as part of their plan to turnaround their main UK business.
Tullow Oil; +4%
The African oil producer leads us higher today, as they have raised $450mn of capital from existing lenders to boost their financial position. Regularly at the bottom of the table recently, causing them to drop out of the FTSE 100, this is a rare piece of good news to help continue to lift the shares away from their recent bottoming out earlier this week around 280p.
Standard Chartered; -0.5%
The war of words continues over the Asian focussed bank. We see another ratings change today, cut to sell, by Investec, and the FT reports a number of big investors warns the bank to leave its UK headquarters following the increase in the bank levy in the budget this week.
Pennon Group; +1%
“British regional water and waste handling company Pennon Group has appointed John Parker as its new chairman, to succeed Ken Harvey when he leaves the board on July 31, the company said on Friday.” Reuters.
Berkeley Group; +1%
The upmarket homebuilder affirms earnings guidance as demand in London and Southern England is holding up.
CRH; +3%
Shareholders approve plans to take assets from the merger of Lafarge and Holcim that they are required to cell to get their merger deal passed the regulators.
Persimmon; -5%
The company agreed a large return of capital to shareholders recently and this has been stripped out this morning.
Off exchange news, but pertinent to our supermarkets; “German discounter Aldi, which has long avoided online sales as not profitable enough, is planning to trial e-commerce in Britain and possibly other countries too, including its home market, a trade journal reported on Thursday.” Reuters.
· FX
Deutsche Bank: ‘A growing number of US corporations have started to voice frustration with the strong USD. Even when the USD sharply strengthened against the JPY amid the early Abe market in 2013, the USD index held at around 80, demonstrating the currency was not that strong. However, since the middle of last year, the EUR and JPY have accelerated their decline against the USD, while the latter has also continued to strengthen against other currencies. The USD index has increased 25% since mid-2014 and 12% in the last three months alone, suddenly rising to its highest level in 12 years. Naturally, such as situation is creating earnings fallout that is hard to ignore.’
EURUSD
LCG: ‘Currently our technical information is calling for bearish euro outlook to remain but we highlight some of the fundamental commentary from the banks indicating a short term rebound could be expected. We recommend keeping an eye on the Greek and German rhetoric into the weekend.’
Morgan Stanley: ‘The dollar rebounded from the biggest drop in six years versus the euro; and While structurally EUR remains a weak currency, Fed-induced asset volatility should lead to a temporary and short-lived EUR advance.’
Nomura: ‘"The price action has been clear. After less than 24 hours, we have retraced almost the entire (partly crazy) move from yesterday in EURUSD. Hence, the downside trend remains in play, likely driven by the underlying fixed income outflows from the Eurozone. But the speed of the move down from here may be slowed by the new signal from the Fed’
Market price 1.0675
Preferred case bearish
Resistance: 1.0730
Target: 1.0600, 1.0510
Alternative case: 1.0730 surpassed, rise to 1.0820 mid-term resistance.
USDCAD
Goldman Sachs- ‘After yesterday’s 4% peak to trough move in the EUR, the single currency aggressively sold off from Wednesday’s 1.1061 highs to close today only slightly higher than pre FOMC levels (1.0625 going in to the event vs 1.0660 close today). Even for those who have less conviction on the strong USD trend, the single currency still seems to be a place to concentrate risk, given ECB QE, Greece concerns, etc. The USD recovered modestly against the commodity complex as well but not to the same extent.’
Market price 1.2678
***Update *** - Market stopped its setback on the 55-Day moving average. Reintegration of the 1.2660 level has ignited a rise.
Preference: Bullish
1.2620/2610 support, rise expected 1.2730 target 1.2820
Alternative case: 1.2620/2610 breached, drop to 1.2525 max 1.2440/2930
· COMMODITIES
Gold
LCG: 'Gold prices extended their recovery after the Fed’s signal of a slower pace in hiking. Higher interest rates would cut the precious metal’s appeal as it offers returns only through price appreciation thus pushing investors in assets with better yields prospects'.
Market Price: 1168.9
Preferred case: Bounce before drop, bounce expected to 1184 max 1200, then drop to 1150 before 1135
Resistances: 1184, 1200
Supports: 1150,1135
Alternative – 1200 surpassed rise to 1223
WTI (May)
LCG: 'Amid acceleration in production, the overall crude supplies in the US now reached 458.8 million barrels, the highest level in weekly data since August 1982. As a consequence the WTI prices renewed their plunge and are trading near the weakest mark in six years. Meanwhile Kuwaiti oil Minister said OPEC has no choice but to keep pumping to maintain market share'.
Market Price: 45.37
Preferred case: Bearish below 47.15, drop expected to 43.10 max 41.95
Resistances: 47.15, 49.00
Supports: 43.10, 41.95
Alternative – 47.15 surpassed, rise to 48.10 before 49.00
Many thanks and kind regards,
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
you get a better veiw from 1 min
a pulback from res to test the breakout point..you can see that on the candle chart
long from the pullback
then some scalping from res
got a test of trend as well
need nimble fingers this morning
a pulback from res to test the breakout point..you can see that on the candle chart
long from the pullback
then some scalping from res
got a test of trend as well
need nimble fingers this morning
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
I am short DOW..@18031
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
FTSE has failed breakout.. should be tanking soon...
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
Attachments
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
Can't get into DAX price action seems very choppy....
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
stop above the red line...
Attachments
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
dax creeping up now as per the trend we posted earlier
Dentalfloss
Legendary member
- Messages
- 63,404
- Likes
- 3,726
care with shorts...this is not a done deal as yet
levels mean nothing....
levels mean nothing....
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
stopped @ 18055 :whistling
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
Tullow Oil up 4%
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
second and last attempt... short DOW again....
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
@ 18051
yes got stopped out for a profit at 315, wished I had hedged down at lo 280s when I had the chance....
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
Jessi_trader
Veteren member
- Messages
- 4,110
- Likes
- 172
that gone @ 60 ...
that's grinding channel.... no scalping attempt now, will wait for bigger setup
