peterpr
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Well I'm back from Ireland - short stopped at 4580 - a little sheepish and poorer - but pulled a bit back today.
I'm not going to eat my hat (4630 was the level) just yet because, whilst we've spiked above it a couple of times today, I'm waiting for a close above it.
I go along with much of what pratbh says + secular bull/bear market theory requires rather longer that 2-3 years for a secular cycle to complete by definition (ie a new secular bull did NOT commence in 2003) - but the thing that continues to clinch the bear case for me is general public sentiment. It's hard to imagine it getting more bullish than it already is (last weeks IMF report, rising earnings/profits, optimism on oil prices, interest rates, rising markets generally + the genral tenor of the financial pages - with a few notable exceptions) - being a confirmed contrarian that's the time to start taking contrary positions (though I must admit to jumping the gun a bit lately!). I don't see major bull runs to new all-time highs starting when sentiment is already at close to an all time high - just the opposite. They start when the depths of depression begin to to give way to optimism - and vice-versa.
Frankly, in spite of the US election and US/UK etc sentiment highs, US economic fundamentals are beginning to look ragged and when the DOW/SPX turn south - which they look like doing right now, the Footsie won't be slow to follow.
Of course all this is high flown theory and, for those trading mainly intra-day or intra-week, it's also largely irrelevant.
Still, I'm remain far more wary of longs than shorts.
I'm not going to eat my hat (4630 was the level) just yet because, whilst we've spiked above it a couple of times today, I'm waiting for a close above it.
I go along with much of what pratbh says + secular bull/bear market theory requires rather longer that 2-3 years for a secular cycle to complete by definition (ie a new secular bull did NOT commence in 2003) - but the thing that continues to clinch the bear case for me is general public sentiment. It's hard to imagine it getting more bullish than it already is (last weeks IMF report, rising earnings/profits, optimism on oil prices, interest rates, rising markets generally + the genral tenor of the financial pages - with a few notable exceptions) - being a confirmed contrarian that's the time to start taking contrary positions (though I must admit to jumping the gun a bit lately!). I don't see major bull runs to new all-time highs starting when sentiment is already at close to an all time high - just the opposite. They start when the depths of depression begin to to give way to optimism - and vice-versa.
Frankly, in spite of the US election and US/UK etc sentiment highs, US economic fundamentals are beginning to look ragged and when the DOW/SPX turn south - which they look like doing right now, the Footsie won't be slow to follow.
Of course all this is high flown theory and, for those trading mainly intra-day or intra-week, it's also largely irrelevant.
Still, I'm remain far more wary of longs than shorts.
