SOCRATES
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I will give you a very good example:~
I am not implying in any way that the catastrophe was known in advance of the event.
If you look at a daily chart going back to Sept 11th and previous. You will see that the market was already falling owing to weakness in the backround that had not been resolved. Sept 11th was so to speak, if you will pardon the pun, the last nail in the coffin. As a result of events like these having world wide implications, the formation (not a pattern) was replicated right across the world in nearly every instrument.
Occasionally markets are caught off the hop. When Nick Leeson was buying the Nikkie, the market was weak, unbeknown to him for similar reasons as above. Suddenly, in Japan, there occured an earthquaque.
The fall paused, and rose a little, for 3 days and then collapsed again.
In 1998, the US markets were in an intermittent ambivalent mood. One evening, prices were falling owing to lack of demand. Suddenly they rocketed skywards without warning as a result of an unexpected cut in US rates, announced late by the Fed.
There are situations in which the price can be discounted in expectation of future events, but it is not a hard and fast rule, because some events cannot be anticipated and therefore responses have to be immediate, whereas events (whose outcomes) can be anticipated lend themselves to prices being adjusted in advance.
The problem is that this discounting is masked frequently by supply demand schedules that run parallel to main events. This is why sometimes it may appear that the event was known or even planned, but it is not the case.
I am not implying in any way that the catastrophe was known in advance of the event.
If you look at a daily chart going back to Sept 11th and previous. You will see that the market was already falling owing to weakness in the backround that had not been resolved. Sept 11th was so to speak, if you will pardon the pun, the last nail in the coffin. As a result of events like these having world wide implications, the formation (not a pattern) was replicated right across the world in nearly every instrument.
Occasionally markets are caught off the hop. When Nick Leeson was buying the Nikkie, the market was weak, unbeknown to him for similar reasons as above. Suddenly, in Japan, there occured an earthquaque.
The fall paused, and rose a little, for 3 days and then collapsed again.
In 1998, the US markets were in an intermittent ambivalent mood. One evening, prices were falling owing to lack of demand. Suddenly they rocketed skywards without warning as a result of an unexpected cut in US rates, announced late by the Fed.
There are situations in which the price can be discounted in expectation of future events, but it is not a hard and fast rule, because some events cannot be anticipated and therefore responses have to be immediate, whereas events (whose outcomes) can be anticipated lend themselves to prices being adjusted in advance.
The problem is that this discounting is masked frequently by supply demand schedules that run parallel to main events. This is why sometimes it may appear that the event was known or even planned, but it is not the case.
peterpr
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Here's are a couple of charts I'm focused on this week.
Ambiguous position on the daily. Small down channel needs further movement down to boost confidence higher than present 67%. Also, further to go down and stay inside the August high confidence channel. MACD looks to be flattening somewhat, but still room for further movement down.
90 minute - came close to the upper channel this am - now heading for the lower which is at 4950 for today. However, if it went a bit lower still, channel confidence would increase to @ 90% and we'd be just above the august lower boundary.
I'm staying on the sidelines again here. I expect a bounce before any change to the August trend and of course we could just continue on up ?? - but the US is in a parlous and jittery state right now so we're getting close to a big move which I judge will signal a major top - at least multi-month.
Ambiguous position on the daily. Small down channel needs further movement down to boost confidence higher than present 67%. Also, further to go down and stay inside the August high confidence channel. MACD looks to be flattening somewhat, but still room for further movement down.
90 minute - came close to the upper channel this am - now heading for the lower which is at 4950 for today. However, if it went a bit lower still, channel confidence would increase to @ 90% and we'd be just above the august lower boundary.
I'm staying on the sidelines again here. I expect a bounce before any change to the August trend and of course we could just continue on up ?? - but the US is in a parlous and jittery state right now so we're getting close to a big move which I judge will signal a major top - at least multi-month.
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Dear all,
Is nobody trading FTSE? As I write 22.25 CMC are quoting 4960-64. It closed at 5000, but Dow has closed negative by I believe 50 points. My gut feel is that FTSE will rise to 4970-80 area first thing in the morning before resuming it's downward trend. Good to be short now, i fink.
regards all
G
Is nobody trading FTSE? As I write 22.25 CMC are quoting 4960-64. It closed at 5000, but Dow has closed negative by I believe 50 points. My gut feel is that FTSE will rise to 4970-80 area first thing in the morning before resuming it's downward trend. Good to be short now, i fink.
regards all
G
peterpr
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Eight FTSE stocks began Ex-dividend trading this morning, including HBOS, HSBC and Lloyds, so that has had a one-off depressing effect - not sure by how much (I'm beginning to miss Sharescope's abilities with this sort of thing 😢 ).
I'm still with my 'shorts only' rule (broken twice intra-day recently on the DOW - and profitably 🙂 ). BUT - FTSE's getting closer to the lower boundaries of all the channels I'm currently watching so I'm looking for a bounce at or before @4930. Having said that, there doesn't seem too much in the way of real support before about 4860. So, if today's raft of news from the US is bad, we could see a serious lurch down which would breach the August channel for the first time - and probably provide us with a definitive trend-change signal.
The DOW is currently sitting on its election rally trend line support after a 200+ point decline in seven trading days, so barring consensus-busting bad news today, I can see a rally there too - which together with Brown's scheduled feel-good budget this pm could happen here too.
Quite a complicated day all in all.
I'm still with my 'shorts only' rule (broken twice intra-day recently on the DOW - and profitably 🙂 ). BUT - FTSE's getting closer to the lower boundaries of all the channels I'm currently watching so I'm looking for a bounce at or before @4930. Having said that, there doesn't seem too much in the way of real support before about 4860. So, if today's raft of news from the US is bad, we could see a serious lurch down which would breach the August channel for the first time - and probably provide us with a definitive trend-change signal.
The DOW is currently sitting on its election rally trend line support after a 200+ point decline in seven trading days, so barring consensus-busting bad news today, I can see a rally there too - which together with Brown's scheduled feel-good budget this pm could happen here too.
Quite a complicated day all in all.
hi all,
"Eight FTSE stocks began Ex-dividend trading this morning, including HBOS, HSBC and Lloyds, so that has had a one-off depressing effect "
i was just wondering why the FTSE declined so much along with the banks. did traders know of the date when EX-dividends begin? im new to trading the markets and was thinking that if EX-devidend's have such an effect on the market, can someone short the EX-dividends companies in advance, maybe short the FTSE aswell? surely it cant be that easy.. look forward to a reply. thanks in advance 😎
"Eight FTSE stocks began Ex-dividend trading this morning, including HBOS, HSBC and Lloyds, so that has had a one-off depressing effect "
i was just wondering why the FTSE declined so much along with the banks. did traders know of the date when EX-dividends begin? im new to trading the markets and was thinking that if EX-devidend's have such an effect on the market, can someone short the EX-dividends companies in advance, maybe short the FTSE aswell? surely it cant be that easy.. look forward to a reply. thanks in advance 😎
counter_violent
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destiny said:
Not much mention of Gordons electioneering giveaway budget , which I believe the city will have taken badly. All this on top of over borrowing currently.
The best bit of the lot, he could'nt have foreseen the Dow rising trendline break, and what a break it turned out to be !!!
Ah well, he's probably given enough away today to ensure a job for another five years.
Destiny,
Ex-dividend dates can be calculated when the company announces their results and the dividend.
If you hold a stock short on ex dividend date, then you have to PAY the dividend which usually at least cancels out the profit you would have made by shorting the stocks.
Ex-dividend dates can be calculated when the company announces their results and the dividend.
If you hold a stock short on ex dividend date, then you have to PAY the dividend which usually at least cancels out the profit you would have made by shorting the stocks.
peterpr
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Ex-Div dates are public record stuff - in advance. Sharescope provides you with them along with a host of other fundamentals - as do many other packages. Most news services will mention significant Ex-div days in advance too.destiny said:
I don't think it was just those that explain Ftse's performance yesterday though - there were lots of other things too - probably the most notable one being the direction of US futures following their current account figures at 8:30EST
peterpr
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We've not touched the lower boundary of the August trend yet - but getting close. Also the confidence of the embryonic d/c is increasing - now 78% and broken below 50dma this am. Channel boundaries are indicating a bounce soon, but my momentum and trend-strength indicators both say there's a bit more downside to go first - say 20-30 points or so (my best guess anyway). If the embryonic daily chart channel confidence level is to continue increasing, then any bounce should not exceed aout 5000.
Possible quick long based on the attached 90 minute chart and channel - Trend strength flattening at very low level. But otherwise will certainly look to short it at anything over about 4970 - maybe earlier
Possible quick long based on the attached 90 minute chart and channel - Trend strength flattening at very low level. But otherwise will certainly look to short it at anything over about 4970 - maybe earlier
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barjon
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mornin' all (or few)
Highest volumes of the week Thursday and Friday. Highest volumes on Friday came shortly after 10am associated with a pretty rapid 20+ rise (someone must have spotted peter's channels 🙂 ) so maybe there is a bit of pent up buying energy around. All tailed off after that though and it was all lost - and then a bit more - by the close.
Don't think it would take much good news from Wall Street to bounce ftse quite strongly (that maybe pent up buying energy) but it needs above 5006 to disturb the new (for me :!: ) bear trend. Still favouring shorts in the meantime.
Mully used to sign off with the axiom - trade what you see, not what you think. Worth repeating from time to time 😉
good trading.
jon
Highest volumes of the week Thursday and Friday. Highest volumes on Friday came shortly after 10am associated with a pretty rapid 20+ rise (someone must have spotted peter's channels 🙂 ) so maybe there is a bit of pent up buying energy around. All tailed off after that though and it was all lost - and then a bit more - by the close.
Don't think it would take much good news from Wall Street to bounce ftse quite strongly (that maybe pent up buying energy) but it needs above 5006 to disturb the new (for me :!: ) bear trend. Still favouring shorts in the meantime.
Mully used to sign off with the axiom - trade what you see, not what you think. Worth repeating from time to time 😉
good trading.
jon
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peterpr
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gullible said:
Sorry to hear that G - a neutral day that saw 25 points upside before reversing to where it started - Oops!
Still hasn't touched the lower boundary of the August channel. Also now just below midline of d/c on 90 minute chart; finishing pretty much at the low for the week (ie momentum still down) My RSI proxy on daily chart is below 30 but still pointing down - also it has hooked down just above mid-line on 90 minute chart.. testing 50dma first time since mid December; 200 dma still up but flattening (see 200pma on 90 minute chart which has just turned down) - My tentative conclusions ?
Uptrend from August not broken yet - but everything points to it being seriously tested over the next week or two. Immediate prospects - Probably a bit more dowside - say to 4900 ish before a weak bounce, but staying inside the channels shown on these daily and 90 min charts, before a major test of the August channel boundary through Easter
But please don't bank on ANY of it !
