FTSE 100 - March 2005

[peterpr]

Looks like a bear flag shaping up on the 30 minute chart BUT....

It's right on the median of the August channel and testing the 5000 level. So, I'd say the likelihood is we'll see a bounce. Also the DOW looks like bouncing of that 3 week resistance right now - early hours though ! My cycle turn dates point to 18-23 March so I'm expecting to see a higher high first maybe upt to the upper channel boundary at 5120 or so. ( Got that ! - the perma bear calling a long !).

Got to admit to admit to missing that crash earlier today though - for which I am mightily miffed.

 

[barjon]

( Got that ! - the perma bear calling a long !).

Got to admit to admit to missing that crash earlier today though - for which I am mightily miffed.

peter

I've taken careful note

Well it bounced me alright - out of a long and I'd only nipped away for a cuppa and a chat.

good trading

jon

 

[gullible]

after hours so FTSE 4974, wonder if it is going to bounce back?

 

[gullible]

what a sell off!

 

[peterpr]

Well it was indeed a bear flag !

I had to miss the 2nd half session in the US and so missed that one too - Damn.

I still think we're going to see a higher high before a major sell-off (read trend change) though. The August channel is still very much intact - 200 points wide. Todays open has broken the median with about another 50 or so points to go over say 2-3 trading days to reach the lower boundary - You have to admit that that is a pretty impressive trend from August..

My call is for a bounce on or before the boundary which will take us to a new high - just or maybe not quite before a serious - serious decline heralds a trend change lateish March. All connected with analysis on the US markets right now + assorted other readings of the runes.

 

[FetteredChinos]

this bear is rubbing his paws....

 

[gullible]

FC,
Still shorting? Dow made some sort of recovery this evening. I have used the opportunity to add to my shorts. I recokn FTSE will test in the next few days 4930 levels.

 

[FetteredChinos]

yup, im still short, and likely to remain so for the rest of the year...

at least im getting the interest of my short positions, if nothing else.

short term trend is still down, so lets stay with that until things change

 

[peterpr]

at least im getting the interest of my short positions, if nothing else.

What about the debits for dividends ? Hold a short over a major Ex-div period and the charges will dwarf any earned interest - On CFD's anyway.

 

[FetteredChinos]

now dont spoil the party Pete

 

[peterpr]

FC,
Still shorting? Dow made some sort of recovery this evening. I have used the opportunity to add to my shorts. I recokn FTSE will test in the next few days 4930 levels.

I'm agnostic on this one right now - so on the sidelines again.
I've already broken my 'shorts-only' rule a couple of times on the DOW - and gotten away with it. But I don't want to push my luck although I think we may see another 50-100 points of upside on FTSE yet.

Position in August trend on the daily chart is neutral -ish with just the smigin of a trend-change showing up - but statistically a bit suspect with just 16 bars in it and only 64% fit. It argues for a bounce to 5020ish, whilst the main trend should have seen a bit lower before a bounce to 5100 plus - RSI neutral; MACD says a bit lower first.

90 minute chart trend says a bit more upside due too.

I'll look to start opening shorts at anything over about 5020 and give myself a damn good kicking if it collapses from here.

 

[barjon]

mornin' all

ok you serial shorters, is there room for one more in your bunkhouse?

Yesterday's action turned my swing trend to down and although it was only marginal it'll need a close above 5042 to nullify it.

good trading

jon

 

[FetteredChinos]

only if you bring the sandwiches..

 

[barjon]

I'll even bring a few bottles of claret if you promise to be good

 

[FetteredChinos]

now you know i cant promise that....

 

[gullible]

Peter,

Either by oure luck or US trade deficit figures my shorts on FTSE and DOW are ok ath the moment- for a change. Also my long on cable is ok. I suspect that we shall see FTSE in the region of 4930 before ny serious upside. As always, these are my guesses.

good luck ( I always need it)

G

 

[peterpr]

Peter,

Either by oure luck or US trade deficit figures my shorts on FTSE and DOW are ok ath the moment- for a change. Also my long on cable is ok. I suspect that we shall see FTSE in the region of 4930 before ny serious upside. As always, these are my guesses.

good luck ( I always need it)
G

G

Pleased to hear it. So don't go following me too closely - could be bad for your wealth

There's still scope for FTSE to go down to 4900 ish and remain in the August channel.

Personally I expect it to have more upside before it does finally break that channel - but, as you say, it will probably go at least a bit lower first.

 

[gullible]

Peter,
I have long way to to catchup with you. For the moment S&P broke 1200, I suspect that the very short term sentiment seems to be bearish.

 

[barjon]

mmm, well how do you read the week?

Wednesday seemed interesting (after two days of below average volume falls) - highest volume of the week, a concerted effort to rise and then a sharp drop when it began to look as if our american cousins wouldn't play ball. Do you get the feel of a desire to rise being thwarted by the DOW? It'll be interesting see if any strength in the DOW next week triggers a burst of buying (there's still all that money rolling into the funds).

Thursday's close saw me reserve a bunk in shorties bunkhouse medium term, but I haven't unpacked my bags yet . I'll back out if there's a rise beyond the red resistance, but that's not looking too likely - at least initially - given DOW close. Be favouring shorts 'til then.

On the downside I've drawn in few speculative support lines, but none seem particularly secure. Anyone got a decent support area in mind?

On the long term front the monthly is still looking bullish, but it's faltered at the fib50 of the high low bear market (more probably down to that yellow congestion zone from 2002).

As usual the story will unfold.

Good trading

jon

 

[gullible]

Barjon,

I am sorry can not offer a considered view. My knoweldge of TA is very limited. I just use SMA (20 and 40 periods) to trade. On that basis, I think that FTSE is bearish. I see FTSE 100 at 4930 next week.

I agree that when dow opens it complicates life re FTSE 100. I try to be flat before 2.00 - do not always succeed.

A thought just crossed my mind when writing this message - election is looming and may be cuase some sort of volatility in the UK markets, but some would say no as the election result appears to be a foregone conclusion. (Not bening political) just trying guess the impact on UK markets.