FTSE 100 - February 2005

[peterpr]

2nd attempt - original ended up on the "Where's the DOW going thread !!

Another quick tit-bit for you to chew on:

Just spotted we reached 366 point above the 200DMA today. That's higher than at any point this side of the 2000 crash. Nearest was 330 on 15th November last (a retrace of 97 points followed).
Then 6th Oct 04 at 279 - a retrace of 162 followed. then 293 on 4th Jan 04 - a retrace of 294 followed.

In other words its 10% further above its 200 DMA than at ANY time in the past 7 years or more. Beginning to take on the trappings of a parabolic spike to me - which means a hefty correction at least.

 

[bracke]

funny you should say that..

i was thinking about starting a new thread this week:-

"here's another here's another one"

The mind boggles, is there no end to your ingenuity.

Regards

bracke

 

[FetteredChinos]

some would say there was no beginning either..

 

[bracke]

some would say there was no beginning either..

That would be cruel...........but then again.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

2nd attempt - original ended up on the "Where's the DOW going thread !!

Another quick tit-bit for you to chew on:

Just spotted we reached 366 point above the 200DMA today. That's higher than at any point this side of the 2000 crash. Nearest was 330 on 15th November last (a retrace of 97 points followed).
Then 6th Oct 04 at 279 - a retrace of 162 followed. then 293 on 4th Jan 04 - a retrace of 294 followed.

In other words its 10% further above its 200 DMA than at ANY time in the past 7 years or more. Beginning to take on the trappings of a parabolic spike to me - which means a hefty correction at least.

Well you nearly have me convinced. Its difficult to argue with 2 deviations and a parabolic spike.

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

evenin' guys

Back from golf and I'm out. So cheering you on from now peter and fc ( you deserve some prize for persistence) but won't be joining you just yet.

good trading

jon

 

[peterpr]

evenin' guys
Back from golf and I'm out. So cheering you on from now peter and fc ( you deserve some prize for persistence) but won't be joining you just yet.
jon

I'm out too. Nearly hit the short button on 5000 but dithered a bit and missed it. All the usual MA's are still pointing sharply up and channels firmly intact so I see more upside on a week or two view too. But if it spikes up again tomorrow before a bit more downside (Futures currently around @ 4990) I will hit the short button because today has made virtually no impression all the extremes mentioned earlier.

Got to be at least 50 points in it I reckon.

 

[peterpr]

My take on the ftse for the next week:

Clearly looking to breach 5000 convincingly - although the marketing men have already deployed much of the ammunition 5000+ provides (even made 5 minutes on BBC1 late evening News last night!)

Problem is it remains dramatically oversold with the RSI still at a record but rolling over and the MACD flattening at similar extreme highs. Also consider this: The 200 point wide regression channel from August has only been breached to the upside twice (33 points on 7/10, then retrace 177 points. 42 points on 15/11, then retrace 148 points) and it remains steep for a continuous 6 month trend. So, assuming another breach to the upside before a correction, just how far could it go. Lets assume it exceeds the highest breach to date by 20% - that's about 50 points (ie 4550), then lets assume it corrects 20% less than lowest previous correction - that's 118 points (ie to about 4930). And all that implies a trend acceleration - at least temporarily.

Could just continue meandering up the upper boundary I suppose, but we've been in meandering mode for two days with a third looking likely so ???.

Still looks to me like we're in pretty safe short territory for a counter-trend trade anywhere above about 4995 before weeks end.

 

[barjon]

peter

Next week already!

Those manipulative marketing men have got the ammunition alright (not certain the futures actually reflected the break did they - or should that be vice versa?) but a bit more wouldn't go amiss. You make a good case but I'll probably stick with the main trend until it breaks other than for day trade dabbles.

good trading

jon

 

[peterpr]

peter
Next week already!
jon

Jon

Well I finally hit the button at 5010 - Dithered as usual and missed a slightly better entry. Mentioned a week because that's the timeframe I view the trade; plus before hitting the button I still thought it might meander a bit more and make it more marginal.

My biggest concern is that a respected NL is calling a DOW turn date around 16th Feb from a significant high. If the DOW does power higher over the next few trading sessions then, with present sentiment and regardless of all these high falutin techie measures, old footsie is just bound to follow.

We'll see.

 

[barjon]

bon chance mon ami

 

[bracke]

peterpr

"My biggest concern is that a respected NL is calling a DOW turn date around 16th Feb from a significant high. If the DOW does power higher over the next few trading sessions then, with present sentiment and regardless of all these high falutin techie measures, old footsie is just bound to follow."

Do I detect a certain negativity and a softening of the ground, just in case.

Regards

bracke

 

[peterpr]

Do I detect a certain negativity and a softening of the ground, just in case.
bracke

Put it like that if you like, but not really. Just responding to Jon with the whole picture.

Anyway - you know I'm an accomplished eater of hats - part of any good staple diet I'd say

And as I write footsie appears to be just half a point short of 5000 at close again - unless the auction gives it a lift

 

[peterpr]

And as I write footsie appears to be just half a point short of 5000 at close again - unless the auction gives it a lift

Well stone the bloody crows - IT DID - for an official close of 5000.000000000 and smack on my upper channel line. Amazing stuff!

 

[bracke]

Well stone the bloody crows - IT DID - for an official close of 5000.000000000 and smack on my upper channel line. Amazing stuff!

Stoning crows not allowed but bear baiting permissable.

Would it be a little forward of me to suggest that you will be keeping a close eye on the dow this evening.

If you succeed with the short it will be hats off to you otherwise another bout of indigestion in the offing.

Regards

bracke

 

[tradesmart]

Highly likely that we’re seeing a ‘bump and run’ setup on the FTSE which may play out for some time yet favouring long positions, with institutional buying extending gains above the key 5000 level…

As we saw with the Nasdaq recently, the bullish phase can be quite protracted before the profit taking ‘run’ occurs, and negative divergence on RSI will likely signal when the 'top' has been reached....

 

[FetteredChinos]

nice chart TS..

still think we are due a succesful re-test of that 4850 region before the bulls are happy.

i know where im getting out of this short

looks like adding another one on todays close...

 

[peterpr]

Stoning crows not allowed but bear baiting permissable.
Would it be a little forward of me to suggest that you will be keeping a close eye on the dow this evening.
If you succeed with the short it will be hats off to you otherwise another bout of indigestion in the offing.
bracke

Been away all day since 7:00am. Just back (7:45pm) still short and like fc looking to add to it. RSI now well above all previous daily highs back to 1997 on all calc methods and furthest above August TC top (44 points). Looks like mthat NL call for a turn date on the DOW 14-16 Feb will indeed be a high, so may even see a bit more upside here yet - but I'm still confident of a serious correction.

Stoning crows OK - baiting bears even more heinous crime than hunting foxes in cool NuLab Britannia don'tcha know? So says his Toniness anyway.

 

[watercooled]

FTSE Wolfe knocking at the door.

Hi Guys,

FTSE Wolfe knocking at the door. Watching out for the 'throw over'. In conjuction with the Bump and Run Reversal. Hope this one works....... Could be really worth being short.

Good luck,

 

[peterpr]

Highly likely that we’re seeing a ‘bump and run’ setup on the FTSE which may play out for some time yet favouring long positions, with institutional buying extending gains above the key 5000 level…

As we saw with the Nasdaq recently, the bullish phase can be quite protracted before the profit taking ‘run’ occurs, and negative divergence on RSI will likely signal when the 'top' has been reached....

Thanks for that TS. Certainly food for thought. My reading of present sentiment/psychology on the 5000 break supports it too. BUT - neg RSI divergence implies some pullback before a higher high/Lower RSI peak. It's that that I'm still looking for with my present position. Precarious one though right now. Could meander sideways for a bit I guess, but present RSI level really is extreme and clear negdiv will probably need a 1-2 day pullback at least. That's what I'll be hanging on early next week - although signs are that the US will be urging things still higher for a day or two too ! :|