forking mad

[scose-no-doubt]

I remember him talking about desks pushing spot to certain levels to trigger larger profitable position in barrier or touch options or something. If that was the case you could have a rapid shift in short term sentiment/S&D post the move. Lot of gaming about in FX.

 

[forker]

My understanding is that the majority of speculative transactions are implicit in nature. For example a bank's client needs to either fund one of their clients transactions or their own. What is on the other side of the transaction is irelivant. It could be swaps, it could be to fund a trade that isn't domestic. It doesn't really matter. What does matter is that enough of it happens as a result of what is happening in other markets with enough participants moving money to result in currency movement. Pure currency speculation is something I can't comment on, but I would think they'd be stupid not to take advantage of their position as liquidity providers and benefit from from the lack of regulation.

 

[rsh01]

Like you, though, I'd guess that the vast bulk of business is the sort of thing gamma was describing and the sorts of things you mention, plus government interventions. Nonetheless a lot of that activity is perhaps likely at specific levels that trigger it.

I would suppose that positions are built as opportunities arise at various "value" levels.

yes prob not far away, i suspect as there's so many participants with so many diff reasons for trading fx then there's no definitive answer, and you wld prob only get a feel for it on the spot fx desk at an institution.

shame gamma no longer here.

 

[trendie]

hi forker,
(good thread , clearly supported by the great and the good, (and me), judging by the reps)

once you have established the entries, do you use conventional methods of identifying stops, ie, below the bar or group of bars?
and do you use different exit criteria, or is the signal for exit the same as the signal for a reversing trade? hope that makes sense.

 

[forker]

hi forker,
(good thread , clearly supported by the great and the good, (and me), judging by the reps)

once you have established the entries, do you use conventional methods of identifying stops, ie, below the bar or group of bars?
and do you use different exit criteria, or is the signal for exit the same as the signal for a reversing trade? hope that makes sense.

hi trendie

thanks for the thumbs up. Stops are typically set below the previous low\high bars and if this isn't available ill use a level breaker bar or anything that looks like its a deal breaker. I always have 2 targets and set my stop to half way between the entry and target 1, if target 1 is met. I never reverse a trade but occasionally find setups back to back in opposite directions. I have updated my screen shots to hopefully make things more clear.

 

[Omoh101]

Hi Forker, are you able to provide more explanation on the terms used in your charts -stinger, flip-flop, missus, steam engine etc. Thanks

 

[Omoh101]

Hi Forker, I probably need to provide some specifics around my question: For example you explained THE STINGER as the first pullback into an opposing swing and that it works in ranges and at changing trends. When you are looking at the level it pulled back into, would you consider how many touches occured previously before that pull back OR how deep the swings were etc?

 

[forker]

Checkout the first post in this thread, if you need further clarification after reading it then feel free to ask

 

[Omoh101]

I have read the first post on your thread but still require further clarification. For example - when your draw your levels are these pivot areas and how much time does the level needs to form before you consider a level valid. Also do you consider every first pull back as a STINGER -if no; what else to do look fo.
tnx

 

[forker]

I have read the first post on your thread but still require further clarification. For example - when your draw your levels are these pivot areas and how much time does the level needs to form before you consider a level valid. Also do you consider every first pull back as a STINGER -if no; what else to do look fo.
tnx

You could term levels as pivots but I would probably term them price pivots. They not based off calculations they are price reaction points. A level becomes more defined with time and less effective after the level isn't visible without scrolling. I suggest starting with defined levels before you attempt freshly developing levels (as little as a few price bars), good opportunity exists in both with more lucrative leaning towards fresh levels. I don't consider every first pullback as a stinger. You need to be aware of range and rather trade a flip-flop in a range. Stinger setups are fantastic when price breaks a range and that's where you should look to employ this technique. Each setup caters for a particular market condition and you shouldn't employ a trending setup in a ranging market.

 

[Omoh101]

Are you able to post a few charts of any recent winning 'STINGER' trades you took forker? tnx

 

[welshguy121]

a sensible thread well done forker i look forward to following this

 

[rsh01]

i look forward to following this

you expecting much more from forker?!

 

[welshguy121]

he has presented himself well

 

[forker]

Are you able to post a few charts of any recent winning 'STINGER' trades you took forker? tnx

here are some charts with stinger trades i have taken and also general examples and advanced examples.

 

[VielGeld]

Great stuff, Forker. Subscribed.

I'm surprised at one thing, though: you don't seem to look at anything lower than the 4h. Why is that? I personally could not do without the 5m or 30s tf even for longer trades because it allows you to refine an entry/exit. Do you simply not care about that kind of stuff?

 

[forker]

Great stuff, Forker. Subscribed.

I'm surprised at one thing, though: you don't seem to look at anything lower than the 4h. Why is that? I personally could not do without the 5m or 30s tf even for longer trades because it allows you to refine an entry/exit. Do you simply not care about that kind of stuff?

Hi VielGeld

You raise an interesting point that I contribute to being the biggest factor in taking my ability to profit from these opportunities from moderately successful to achieving my goals. I spent over a year trying to refine entries on lower time frames and it didn't work out well. Logically, looking at lower time frames to obtain a better entry and reduce your risk is sound but in reality it adds unnecessary layers of complexity. For the sake of reducing risk and maximising profits I think it's no different than trying to catch massive trades day in day out. By reducing your stake, you can achieve desired results without over complicating the trading process. The flip side is slower account growth but it also allows you to sleep at night. That being said the stops I use are not fixed and range from 30 to 60 points. So to answer your question, I have been there, done that and have the Tshirt for time wasted.

 

[forker]

So here is a question for anyone dipping their toes into these opportunities, did you catch either the usdjpy or gbpusd flip-flops? I took the usdjpy

Edit: they were over the last 2 days

 

[VielGeld]

Thanks for the reply, Forker.

I suppose all it does come down to is personal style or what you feel most comfortable with. Settling for less profits with the benefit of peace of mind and a consistent approach is probably the best idea in the long run. Less stress. Longer life and a better heart and all that.

Your use of the 4h has intrigued me though, and I think I'll add it to my other TFs. Hope you don't mind a bit of osmosis~

 

[rsh01]

it allows you to refine an entry/exit. Do you simply not care about that kind of stuff?

Hi VG

Do you define 'refine' as getting a better price?

I used to think this was the case, but have now worked out it may mean less pips for that trade. I drill down to get additional confirmation in price turning, which has increased strike rate (so far) as I am no longer stepping in front of trains.

Will have to review again at later date though. Reckon its worthwhile exercise for ppl to try at least.