Forexyard Analysis

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change Data to Dominate USD Trading

Today's U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change data release is set to dominate the trading between the Dollar and its major currency pairs. A number of other factors are also likely to impact the forex market today, such as European Central Bank Chairman Jean-Claude Trichet's speech at 7:50 GMT, and the U.S. Unemployment Rate publication at 12.30 GMT. The results of today's data are likely to determine the USD's bullishness going into next week's trading.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

The most important economic news - the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change figures

Today is the most important<<snip>> economic news event of the month, the U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change figures. Traders should take note that the results of this indicator usually creates great volatility in the forex market

8:30 GMT- GBP PPI Input

• This indicator reflects the change in the price of raw materials purchased by manufacturers.
• This data release is forecasted to improve from the previous month’s result.
• The results typically create volatile market conditions.
• Higher than forecasted results could send the GBP/USD pair above the 1.6150 mark.

12:30 GMT- U.S Non-Farm Employment Change

• This indicator reflects the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the US farming industry.
• The indicator typically creates a volatile trading environment, affecting not only the USD crosses but also the value of Crude Oil and Gold.
• Disappointing results could send the EUR/USD pair above the 1.4400 resistance level.
• Traders may find good opportunities to enter the market following this vital and probably the most important announcement of the month.

Tips on Crude Oil

• Crude Oil rose significantly yesterday as the price is currently trading around the $69 level.
• The release of the U.S. Unemployment Rate data on Friday may put some strain on Oil prices as the rate is expected to rise.
• However, as optimism seems to be the leading force in the market, rising equities and a weakening Dollar may prove to have a greater affect on Oil prices than the results of the unemployment indicator.

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard analysis - Greenback Slips After Posting Its Largest 1 Day Gain

The currency market is focusing on U.S. short-term Interest Rates as talk of a rate increase by the Federal Reserve has emerged. Dealers said that market participants will focus on a slew of Treasuries auctions this week. If longer-term Treasury yields rise on supply worries, this could weigh on the U.S dollar. and that might be difficult for the USD to climb further only on U.S. positive jobs data.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - USD Quivers from Chrysler-Fiat Ordeal

After gathering some positive momentum at the end of last week from US employment data, the US Dollar now faces a new ordeal. As the US Supreme Court attempts to block the sale of Chrysler to Fiat, recently gained confidence in the US economy has begun to show signs of wear. Forex traders may see added volatility to a market that was forecast yesterday to be flat. News events such as this tend to push markets in a way which traders can greatly benefit. Today is a great day to trade the USD!

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

AUD Under Downward Pressure - Weekly Prediction

The Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced a slight gain today against the USD after dropping to the lowest level since May 28 the previous week due to an advance in U.S and European equity markets. The AUD is highly linked with movements in equity markets as gains in equities signal improvements in economic conditions and a rise in risk appetite, prompting investors to turn to higher yielding riskier assets such as the AUD/USD.

The Australian currency was also aided by a jump in May business confidence by the most in 8 years. Still, as confidence has been improving around the world, this data provided only minor support to the Aussie.

Speculations regarding the Federal Reserve’s increase of the interest rate later this year are likely to hurt the Aussie as this increase will reduce the extra yield offered by yields in Australia, reducing the country’s appeal to investors. Furthermore, the unemployment data to be released June 11th is likely to show an increase in the Unemployment Rate to 5.7% from 5.4% in April. This will likely put a strain on risk appetite among investors and therefore put downward pressure on the currency.

 

[forexyard]

Did the NZD Rise too Quickly? - Weekly Predictions

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has been experiencing a downward trend for the past week against the USD due to speculation that its rise to an 8-month high against the U.S currency was too quick. The NZD/USD has fallen over 4% since touching 65.94 U.S. cents on June 2, the most since October.

The kiwi also suffers from a narrowing gap between the yields of government bonds in New Zealand and bonds of similar maturity in the U.S; this further strengthens the USD. A higher Dollar can also result in lower commodity prices which will further hurt the NZD as the currency is tightly linked with movements in commodities prices.

Further pressure on the kiwi arose after rumors the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this year. The benchmark interest rates are 2.5% in New Zealand compared with 0.1% in Japan and as low as 0% in the U.S. This difference in rates attracted investors to the nation’s higher-yielding assets. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will likely leave its benchmark rate unchanged when it meets June 11; however, an increase in U.S interest rates will diminish the nation’s appeal to investors.

Rising equity markets in the E.U and U.S might push the NZD slightly up against the U.S currency as this will push investors into higher yielding assts. However with the current shaky situation in the E.U it might not be enough to reverse the trend.

 

[forexyard]

Daily Forex Overview - Geithner Speech to have Muted Impact

10:00 GMT: EUR - German Industrial Production:

- This indicator reflects the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
- It’s a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle
- This release is expected to be lower than its previous figures.
- This means the EUR/USD could show bearishness today if it comes inline with expectations.

14:30 GMT: USD - U.S Treasury Secretary Geithner Speech

- Due to testify on his department’s budget before the Senate Appropriations Committee in Washington DC
- His speeches are often used to signal policy shifts to the public and foreign governments.
- His speeches have had a very strong impact on the forex market lately.
- However, he is not expected to say anything that could create a lot of volatility today; will likely be a muted impact.

Crude Oil tips:

- Crude Oil was trading lower during yesterday’s trading session, extending Friday’s losses as the dollar strengthened.
- As for today, crude oil might continue this downward correction.
- Target price may be as low as $67.

 

[harpal1980]

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[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - Crude Oil Prices Surprise with Bullishness as USD Weakens

Many analysts yesterday had anticipated a slight decline in the price of Crude Oil considering the recent strength in the USD brought on by last week's employment data. However, oil prices surprised many traders today as the price continued to climb above $70 a barrel to hit a 7-month high! As Geithner's speech demonstrated a renewed push for economic recovery, and potential plans to raise interest rates in the US, there isn't very stable ground around the common safe-haven investments. Traders should expect more volatility today.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

US Trade Balance Negative - USD to Gain?

The U.S. market just opened on Wednesday with the publication of the U.S. Trade Balance data release. The actual result was -$29.2 billion, worse than the forecasted -$28.8 billion. The release measures the differentiation in value between both imported and exported goods and services during the described month. The negative number signals that significantly more goods and services were imported than exported in the Month of April. The markets are already very volatile as traders open their USD positions.

The immediate results of the data release have led to a stronger U.S. Dollar. This may be so, as investors buy-up the safe-haven USD as the economic situation in the U.S. seems to be destabilizing again. The EUR/USD rate is currently $1.4065. The GBP/USD rate is currently trading at 1.6375. Since the release of the data, Crude Oil has dropped over 40 cents, and stands at $70.94, as traders feel that the safe-haven USD may increase in the coming hours.

Traders are advised to follow the result of the U.S. Federal Budget Balance publication at 18:00 GMT. This measures the difference between the U.S. federal government’s income and expenditures during the month of May. Forex traders should also pay close attention to news surrounding the sale of Chrysler to Fiat today, as this could reassure investors about confidence in the U.S. economy. The USD may go bullish in the coming hours, and hit $1.4040 per EUR, if traders continue to buy up the greenback.

 

[forexyard]

EUR and USD in Struggle for Dominance

With the recent volatility in the forex market, one currency pair seems to stand out: the EUR/USD. This pair has been range-trading for the previous week as the two currencies struggle for dominance of the currency market. With this weekend's G8 summit on the global financial system, traders will no doubt anticipate a higher level of volatility among this primary currency pair after the world's economic leaders meet.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Daily Forex Overview - US Unemployment Claims on Tap

Daily Forex Overview

8:30 GMT: GBP - Consumer Inflation Expectations

· This indicator reflects the percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months

· Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, primarily because workers tend to push for higher wages when they believe prices will rise.

· The release of this indicator typically creates volatile trading as it is directly correlated with the value of the national currency

· A better than previous result may continue to boosts the GBP in the short-term.

12:30 GMT: USD - U.S Unemployment Claims

· This indicator reflects the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

· This release is expected to be better than their previous figures.

· Meaning the USD could continue to show further bullishness today.

· If the results turn out to be lower than forecasts, the Dollar may record a fairly bearish session in today’s trading.

Crude Oil Tips:

· Crude Oil prices experienced another day of appreciation as the oft-traded commodity rose above $72.

· If the U.S. publishes more positive economic news, oil prices will continue to be bullish going into next week.

· As for today, the economic figures coming out of the U.S. and Europe are likely to impact the volatility of oil prices

 

[Kurrency]

do you see it being able to hold this trend for eur/usd?

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard analysis - Dollar Up as Russia Sees No Other Alternative to the U.S. Curren

The EUR came under selling pressure against the greenback on Monday after the UK Daily Telegraph reported on its website that Germany's top industrial group has warned that Germany's credit crunch is deepening. The dollar also drew some support after Russia's Finance Minister said the nation has full confidence in the U.S. currency. His remarks came ahead of the first summit of leaders of Russia, China, India and Brazil on Tuesday, at which the leaders are expected to discuss issues including foreign reserve diversification.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard.com Analysis - Return to Risk Aversion over Negative U.S Data

The USD and JPY regained their status as safe-haven currencies after the release of worse than forecasted economic data from the Empire State Manufacturing Index and TIC Long-Term Purchases reports and a subsequent return to risk aversion. The two currencies gained against most of their major currency pairs amidst a volatile trading day. Today's trading is expected to be volatile as well with major news releases from the U.S and Euro-Zone including the U.S Building Permits and the PPI releases at 12:30 GMT, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 9:00 GMT and Britain's CPI at 8:30 GMT.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Daily Forex Overview - Flurry of Data to Cause Bumpy Ride Today

A blizzard of economic events is expected from the U.S and Euro-Zone today. Forex traders should definitely pay closer attention to the EUR and USD markets as they will be in the driver’s seat of the market. Japan announced their interest rate policy this morning and kept their rates unchanged at 0.10%, which was expected. However, the JPY has received a modest boost in the strength over the past 24 hours and doesn’t seem to be stopping.

Also today, we are expecting a lot of information regarding housing markets and inflation. Britain, Europe, and the US are all publishing an inflationary report and we should experience a lot of volatility as a result. Keep a close eye on today’s economic calendar; we’re in for a bumpy ride!

9:00 GMT: EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- This is a leading indicator of economic health as it measures investor optimism about the market.

- A reading above 0.0 indicates market optimism

- This report has produced optimistic results for the previous 2 reports and is forecast to continue doing so.

- If optimism in Germany rises, we will likely see a stronger rebound in the EUR.

- If optimism falls, we could see the USD’s recent rally gain momentum.

12:30 GMT: USD - U.S Building Permits
- This indicator reflects the annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month

- This release tends to create either big changes to current trends or push current trends even further.

- A disappointing result could send the EUR/USD above the 1.4100 resistance level

- Traders will be paying close attention to today’s announcement as a stronger than expected result may continue to boost the USD in the short-term

Tips on Crude Oil
- Oil fell to around $70 a barrel on Monday, extending its retreat from a near eight-month high as the dollar firmed.

- Oil prices have been buoyed by hopes of economic recovery. At the same time, politicians in consumer countries have expressed concern the rise could threaten their economies

- Traders are advised now to make some profits as the price of Crude Oil is set to remain volatile in the short-medium term.

 

[forexyard]

Forexyard Analysis - British Pound May Dominate Today's Market

As the USD shows unclear signals about where it is heading, and the EUR appears to be following the lead of the greenback, the market's primary currencies seem to be confusing the bulk of forex traders. On the other hand, the British Pound has shown strong signs of life and Britain is scheduled to release significant economic data today which may cause the GBP to be the main subject of today's trading.

Technical News

EUR/USD

This pair has been range-trading between 1.4150 and 1.3750 for the past few days and doesn't seem to have much clear direction. After a short upward movement, the Slow Stochastic on the hourly chart is signaling an impending bearish cross which means the range-trading is set to continue. Buying on lows and selling on highs might be a good choice today.

GBP/USD

This pair shows no clear indication of direction for the moment. Nevertheless, there is one signal which does appear clearly. The Bollinger Bands on the hourly chart are beginning to tighten and the MACD on all charts is near 0, indicating a volatile movement is impending. When the price jump occurs, entering positions to ride the wave will be a wise choice.

USD/JPY

The volatility this pair has seen recently has created a number of contradictory signals. The hourly chart shows a bearish cross on the Slow Stochastic, indicating a downward movement may be coming. Contrary to this is the bullish cross on the 4-hour chart, signaling an impending upward movement. Waiting for a clear signal might be wise today.

USD/CHF

The consolidation trend in this pair, which began with the low price near 1.0600, has started to reach its threshold. The latest downward movement will likely be followed by a quick correction before making a significant price jump. The short term oscillators point upward, signaling the impending correction. Forex traders can benefit greatly by calling the direction of the breach and riding the wave which is sure to follow.

The Wild Card

CAD/CHF

This pair has been trading very flat these past few weeks, but has now begun to show signs of life. The MACD on the hourly and 4-hour chart shows clear bullish crosses, signaling an impending bullish move. The daily chart also has a bullish cross on the Slow Stochastic, which supports this notion. Forex traders can join this upcoming trend by entering early buy positions and riding the upcoming spike for profits this week.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

USD and CAD Forecast – Week of Monday 15 June 2009

USD

The USD has gone increasingly volatile as of late against its major currency pairs. The USD/JPY cross is down for a second day at 96.42. This comes about as the U.S. shows some negative economic data for a second day in a row. Against the EUR, the USD is currently down by 30 pips at 1.3827. Versus the Pound, the USD has recorded ups and downs in the past week, and is down over 150 pips against the GBP at 1.6414. The main reason for the weak USD in recent weeks is due to the U.S. economy showing instability, such as today’s negative U.S. PPI data. The USD’s bearishness is likely to continue into end of week trading, providing that the U.S. economy continues to show mixed signs of economic recovery.

CAD

In the past week the Australian Dollar has recorded very positive results. This comes about as Canada is showing signs that an early economic recovery is very near. This comes about as Canada produced a string of positive economic figures on Monday and today, such as positive Manufacturing Sales and Labor Productivity figures. In turn, Canada’s positive data has led to a bearish CAD in the past week. The CAD has slipped against the USD and EUR since the beginning of last week. This trend is likely to continue if Canada’s economy produces more positive economic news. Thus traders will sell the CAD for higher-yielding assets. Therefore, it is likely that the CAD will go bearish yet again this week, and the USD/CAD rate may reach 1.1400 by Friday.

 

[forexyard]

U.S. Unemployment Claims Data to Drive USD Trading Today

The market is set to go increasingly volatile today on the publication of U.S. Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 14:00 GMT, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's speech at 13:30 GMT . In turn this economic news will help determine the strength of the Dollar versus its major currency pairs going into end of week trading. In order to take advantage of the forex market now, traders are advised to start opening their USD positions now, prior to the release of this crucial data.

Read the complete in depth forex analysis of today at our forex news center

 

[forexyard]

Dollar Expects High Volatility Today

Written by Anton Eljwizat - Forex Trading Education Senior Analyst


With an abnormal number of news events coming from Britain and the United States today, forex traders have been in a frenzy to place their bets before the trading day gets underway. Trading during these news events, which typically carry a lot of market volatility, is a fast way to double your forex trading balance. Special attention should be paid to the British Retail Sales at 8:30 GMT, the U.S Unemployment Claims report at 12:30 GMT, and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s Speech at 13:30 GMT. Will you take advantage of the impending volatility, or sit on the sidelines and miss out?

12:30 GMT: U.S Unemployment Claims

• This indicator reflects the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
• Better-than-expected results may help the Dollar recover some of yesterday’s losses against some of its crosses such as the EUR.
• If the results turn out to be lower than forecasts, then the Dollar may record a fairly bearish session in today’s trading.
• Traders should focus their attention on this release, as this is expected to be the highlight of the day for forex traders.

13:30 GMT: Treasury Secretary Geithner’s Speech

• This speech is likely greatly Impact USD trading.
• It has great potential of creating volatility in the market.
• Traders should pay close attention to the market as there is an opportunity for traders to capitalize on the fluctuations which are likely to follow his speech.

Tips on Crude Oil

• Crude Oil prices experienced another day of appreciation as the oft-traded commodity rose above $72 a barrel.
• If the U.S. publishes positive economic news, then Oil prices are set to continue their bullish run into next week.
• As for today, the economic figures coming out of the U.S. and Europe are likely to impact the volatility of Oil prices.