Forex daily Analysis

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Bitcoin goes down

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14.12.2018

On Friday, Bitcoin along with other key crypto assets declined in Asia. It happened due to the fact that digital token protocol Basis ceased operations and had its capital returned to investors because of regulatory fears.

Eventually, Bitcoin inched down by nearly 3.08% showing a reading of $3,305. As for Ethereum, this digital currency sank too, losing 2.42% being worth $86.2.

Besides this, XRP declined by about 1.32% ending up with $0.29919. Additionally, Litecoin slipped by 3.35% concluding at $23.191.

Geared up towards launching a fully decentralized and stable token absolutely resistant to volatility, on Thursday Basis announced its decision to shut down and also return the invested funds to its owners.

The company actually explained that move by a strong negative impact of the necessity to comply with American securities regulation. Under these conditions Basis doesn’t know how to dodge security status for share and bond tokens, which is undesirable for the startup.

By the way, among the startup’s investors there are Bain Capital Ventures, Silicon Valley venture capital firm Andreessen Horowit, and Google’s capital investment arm GV.

Despite some recent regulation hazards and clampdowns, some countries are still interested in driving crypto assets.

In addition to this, the Gulf Times informed that the key financial institution of the United Arab Emirates is actually working on a joint project with its neighbor, the Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority with the aim of launching a digital coin their for cross-border transactions.

Moreover, French politicians also urged the country’s leader to invest up to EUR500 million in the blockchain sector. On Wednesday, they came up with a report on the ledger technology that proposed to make their country a “blockchain nation.” They are assured that in the nearer future blockchain will drastically change the world, and in particular, France.

 

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American equities stand still as trade and economic fears weigh

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17.12.2018

On Monday, American futures were generally intact suppressed by trader fears over the world’s economic deceleration.

As a matter of fact, the S&P 500 futures went down by 0.12% being worth 2,602.38. As for Dow futures, they slumped by 0.14% trading at 24,095. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped by 0.09% reaching 6,616.25.

On Friday, all three indexes concluded in correction territory. It was the first such a settlement since March 2016.

Apparently, trade tensions between China and America put pressure on financial markets after American trade ambassador Dennis Shea told that China’s quite unfair competitive deeds were impacting foreign companies, breaking the World Trade Organization rules.

In December, America and China agreed to a 90-day truce because the two leading economies try to work out fruitful trade talks.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles found itself among the top performers in premarket trade. Its equities managed to surge by up to 1.4%. As for Tesla, it headed north by 0.3%, while Celgene added 1.1%. In addition to this, Schlumberger ascended by 2.3% right after Nelson Roberts Investment Advisors ramped up their stake in the company by up to 7.21%.

Best Buy went down by 4.2%. As for Johnson & Johnson, its equities sank by 1%. Goldman Sachs headed south by 0.5% after Malaysia came up with charges filed against the company over the 1MBD clash.

By the way, the New York Empire State Manufacturing index for December will be published at 8:30 AM ET.

As for commodities, gold futures managed to tack on by 0.1% hitting $1,243.40 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, crude futures surged by 0.8% being worth $51.90 a barrel.

Gauging the evergreen buck’s actual purchasing potential versus a pack of its main counterparts the USD index declined by about 0.2% hitting 96.69.

 

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News to trade on December 18

Check the candles:

18.12.2018

During the Asian session the risk-off sentiment across the markets increased as China’s president Xi Jinping failed to bring updates on the trade truce between the US and China during his speech. As a result, the Japanese yen strengthened against the US Dollar. For now, it has already tested the strong support at $112.49. If it is broken, the next support is at 111.61. If the USD strengthens, the first resistance will lie at 113.11. If this level is broken, bulls will target the next resistance at 113.98.

The New Zealand dollar has been rising on the upbeat level of business confidence. The NZD business confidence increased to -24.1 in December (vs. -37.1 in November). As a result, the kiwi has already crossed the 200-day MA. If NZD/USD continues to move up, it will retest the 0.6876 resistance. If this level is broken, the next resistance is at 0.6961. Otherwise, if the USD gains its strength, the pair will be pulled towards the support at 0.6742.

The euro has been rising due to the weak US Dollar. The Italian and French budget deficits do not affect the market as much as they did. For now, the main focus for the pair remains on the tomorrow's Fed decision on its interest rate and monetary policy. If bulls continue to push the pair up, it will rise towards the resistance at 1.1408. If the USD is supported ahead of the Fed decision, the pair will fall to the support at 1.1338.

The British Prime Minister Theresa May announced the vote on the Brexit plan in the House of Commons to be on January 14. Today, she plans to discuss the chances of a no deal with her cabinet. As the date for the vote brought more certainty, GBP/USD has started to recover. In case of more positive news, the pair will rise further to the resistance at 1.2735. In case of more uncertainty or negative comments, the cable will stick below the support at 1.2605. The next support is placed at 1.2452.

The prices for WTI and Brent keep falling down on the news about the US oversupply. The price for WTI has already tested the support at $48.67. More news about increased oil production will pull its price further to the next support at $47. On the other hand, more hints from OPEC+ on the future production cut will push the WTI price towards the resistance at $49.88. The next resistance lies at $51.55.

Now let's look at Brent's chart. For now, it has been targeting the support at $57.63. If bulls get back their strength, the price for Brent will rise towards the resistance at $58.92. If it's broken, the next resistance is placed at $60.62.

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News to trade on December 19

Check the candles:

19.12.2018

The main focus for the market for today will be on the Federal open market committee statement and on the press conference at 21:00 MT (19:00 GMT) time. The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver the 4th rate hike. If the Fed is hawkish, EUR/USD will fall to the support at 1.1338.

However, some of the analysts afraid of the possible dovish tone by the Fed amid the global economic slowdown. If the Fed Chair Powell delivers dovish comments, EUR/USD will stick above the resistance at 1.1408.

According to the news, the British Prime Minister Theresa May agreed to implement the plans for a no-deal Brexit. Further warnings to Great Britain will be announced in the coming weeks. At the moment, GBP/USD has continued its modest gains towards the resistance at 1.27. Any positive updates on the Brexit solution will support the British pound and push it further up to the 1.27 level. Otherwise, if the news on Brexit disappoints investors and traders, the British currency will fall towards the support at 1.2605.

New Zealand anticipates the release of GDP for the third quarter. Experts see the economy of New Zealand to grow by 0.6%. If the actual data is higher, the kiwi will rise towards the resistance at 0.6876. The lower-than-expected data will pull the kiwi down to the support at 0.6826.

The oil prices keep moving down driven by Russian and US high supply forecasts. Russian oil production hit a record 11.42 million barrels this month, while the level of oil production in 7 US shale basins is expected to climb to more than 8 million barrels by the end of 2018. As a result, the price for WTI updated its August 2017 lows and stick below the $47 level yesterday. More concerns on the oversupply will pull the crude’s price towards the support at $45.76. If more hints on the production cut by OPEC+, scheduled for the next month come out, the price for WTI will stick above the resistance at $47.02. The next resistance is placed at $48.68.

As for Brent, its price tested the support at $55.96. If it’s broken, bears will focus on the next support at $55.12. If the price for Brent gets a positive momentum, it will rise towards the resistance at $57.65.

The gold has been going up due to the weak US dollar. If the USD is not supported by the Fed statement, the price for the yellow metal will rise towards the resistance at $1,258. In case of the strong USD, the price for gold will stick below the support at $1,248.

 

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News to trade on December 20

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20.12.2018

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised its interest rate from 2.25% to 2.5%. However, the comments by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell brought some uncertainty to the market. Fed officials predicted two rate hikes in 2019, instead of three mentioned during the previous meeting. In addition, they cut the long-term expectations for the policy rate. It resulted in the mixed trading of the USD.
In other news, the European Commission brought some positivity to the euro traders. The European Commission vice president Valdis Dombrovskis confirmed the commission has reached a deal with Italy on its budget. It will avoid the excessive deficit procedure and avoid disciplinary measures. As a result, EUR/USD has gained significantly. For now, the pair has already crossed the 1.1408 level. The next resistance for the pair lies at 1.1513. If the USD gains back its strength, the pair may fall back below the 1.1408 level towards the support at 1.1338.

During the Asian session, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged, as expected. USD/JPY was unaffected by this decision, driven mostly by the weak USD and the risk-off sentiment across the equity markets. At the moment the pair has been targeting the support at 111.61. If it is broken, the next support lies at 110.99. If the USD gains back its strength, the pair will move up to the resistance at 112.49.

The Bank of England will present its monetary policy summary and announce its official bank rate votes at 14:00 MT time. The rate hike is not expected, however, the BOE governor Mark Carney and his colleagues may provide some supportive data for the British pound and suggest some hints for further bank’s decisions in case of a no-deal Brexit. The British pound has already bounced from the strong support at the central pivot at 1.2605. For now, GBP/USD has been gaining towards the resistance at 1.2735. The hawkish BOE will make the cable rise higher to the 1.2735 level. Otherwise, if the BOE is dovish or the actual level of the retail sales disappoints the investors, the risks of the fall below the 1.2605 support will increase.

The Australian dollar has been rising after the release of employment change. The indicator increased by 37 thousand employed people (vs. 20 thousand people expected). The aussie has tested the resistance at 0.7133. If the sentiment in the market changes, bulls will manage to break this level. The next resistance is placed at 0.7260. If the USD strengthens, AUD/USD will fall towards the support at 0.7094. The next support lies at 0.7037.

Gold has been moving up amid the weak USD. Today, it has already risen towards the resistance at $1,258, reaching the highs of July 2018. In case of the strong USD, the price for the yellow metal will fall downwards to the support at $1,240.

 

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Weekly Cryptonews

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Weekly Cryptonews

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21.12.2018

Stephen Pairs, Bitpay CEO: “I used to say 10 years, but now I think it’s more like 3-5 years until you can go into a restaurant, a retail establishment, and just everybody’s going to expect that that store will be able to accept a blockchain payment.”

Crypto market finally entered the correction phase. The price for Bitcoin rebounded from the $3,222 level on Saturday and continued to go up. On Thursday it managed to stick above the $4,000 level. If bulls continue to pull the price further, it will manage to rise towards the resistance at $4,337. The next resistance is placed at $4,753. In case of the bearish pressure, the price for the oldest cryptocurrency will fall towards the support at $3,660. If we look at the technical side, we can see that the price created lower lows on the daily chart, while MACD formed higher lows. This situation is called convergence and signals reversal to the upside. In addition, Parabolic SAR shows an uptrend for Bitcoin. It is a good sign for the further rise of the grandfather of cryptocurrencies.

In other news:

The cryptomarket has grown by $10 billion in several days. Can you believe it?

The Bitcoin mining’s difficulty declined by 9.5%. It means that miners will get back to work soon.

Regulations:
Two US congressmen suggested to exclude cryptocurrencies from the securities classification and improve the tax treatment for currencies.

French authorities refused to cut taxes for the owners of crypto assets. The current tax is held at 36%.

The British government suggested providing the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) with additional rights to regulate cryptocurrency assets.

New releases:

Facebook announced the stablecoin’s development for WhatsApp users. At first, it will be launched in India.

The construction of the crypto heaven in Malta continues: RnF Finance Limited submitted a request for blockchain bank’s license.

Just for fun:

The famous trader Mark Dow closed the short position for Bitcoin, which he was holding for the whole year. He opened position when BTC’s price was at the top. Now we know the reason for the bearish market


Bitcoin $4,142

Ethereum $117.47

Litecoin $32.32

DASH: $94.37

21.12.2018

Stephen Pairs, Bitpay CEO: “I used to say 10 years, but now I think it’s more like 3-5 years until you can go into a restaurant, a retail establishment, and just everybody’s going to expect that that store will be able to accept a blockchain payment.”

Crypto market finally entered the correction phase. The price for Bitcoin rebounded from the $3,222 level on Saturday and continued to go up. On Thursday it managed to stick above the $4,000 level. If bulls continue to pull the price further, it will manage to rise towards the resistance at $4,337. The next resistance is placed at $4,753. In case of the bearish pressure, the price for the oldest cryptocurrency will fall towards the support at $3,660. If we look at the technical side, we can see that the price created lower lows on the daily chart, while MACD formed higher lows. This situation is called convergence and signals reversal to the upside. In addition, Parabolic SAR shows an uptrend for Bitcoin. It is a good sign for the further rise of the grandfather of cryptocurrencies.

In other news:

The cryptomarket has grown by $10 billion in several days. Can you believe it?

The Bitcoin mining’s difficulty declined by 9.5%. It means that miners will get back to work soon.

Regulations:
Two US congressmen suggested to exclude cryptocurrencies from the securities classification and improve the tax treatment for currencies.

French authorities refused to cut taxes for the owners of crypto assets. The current tax is held at 36%.

The British government suggested providing the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) with additional rights to regulate cryptocurrency assets.

New releases:

Facebook announced the stablecoin’s development for WhatsApp users. At first, it will be launched in India.

The construction of the crypto heaven in Malta continues: RnF Finance Limited submitted a request for blockchain bank’s license.

Just for fun:

The famous trader Mark Dow closed the short position for Bitcoin, which he was holding for the whole year. He opened position when BTC’s price was at the top. Now we know the reason for the bearish market


Bitcoin $4,142

Ethereum $117.47

Litecoin $32.32

DASH: $94.37

 

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Top events this week will bring us

More at:

24.12.2018

This week brings us not so many important events in the market due to the central banks’ holidays on December 24 and December 25. However, there are still some opportunities for trading.

Speech by the Bank of Japan Governor Mr. Kuroda (Thu, 6:00 MT (4:00 GMT) time) – The governor of one of the most dovish banks Haruhiko Kuroda is expected to speak on December 27. His speech may support the Japanese yen.

American CB consumer confidence (Thu, 17:00 MT (15:00 GMT) time) - The level of US consumer confidence by the Conference Board is expected to decline to 133. If the actual data is higher, than expected, the USD will be supported.

Hot topics:

The Chinese finance ministry has announced changes to the tariffs since the beginning of next year. China will remove export tariffs on 94 products, including iron ore and levy temporary tariffs on more than 700 items.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will speak with the Federal Reserve on financial markets today.

According to news, Trump has been discussing the possibility to fire the Fed Chair Jerome Powell last few days. He has been warned that firing the head of the Federal Reserve would be a destructive move towards the US economy. Moreover, it is not clear Mr. Trump has a right to fire Mr. Powell.

Leaders of the US Congress failed to reach a deal with the White House on the border wall funding and the government was partially shut down. It is worth to mention, the Democrats will take control of the House on January 3, which means Trump may never get funding for the wall.

OPEC plans to deepen or extend the reductions of the oil production. Its actions may support the oil prices at the beginning of the year.

Have a good week of trading and happy holidays!

 

[SebsCubs]

News to trade on December 26

Check the candles:
26.12.2018

The US dollar has risen on the Wednesday’s morning after the US president Donald Trump expressed confidence in the US Treasury secretary, Federal Reserve and US economy yesterday. As a result, EUR/USD has dropped to the support at 1.1385. If Trump expresses more confidence towards the Fed Chair Jerome Powell, EUR/USD will break that support and fall further to the next one at 1.1283. Otherwise, in case of more uncertainties, the pair will rise towards the resistance at 1.1470.

Gold is trading at last June’s highs. Up to this moment, the price for the yellow metal is testing the resistance at $1,269. If this level is broken, the next resistance is placed at $1,283. If the USD gets stronger, the price for gold will fall towards the support at $1,252.

On Monday, the price for oil tested the fresh lows. The WTI’s price stuck below the $42.86 level. Any updates on the output cut by OPEC will push the price higher above the $42.86 level to the resistance at $47.49. If the bearish pressure continues, the price for WTI will fall further to the next support at $40.73.

As for Brent’s price, it has tested the support at $50.43. Positive news on the production cut will help bulls to pull the price towards the resistance at $55.12. Otherwise, it will break the support at $50.43 and target the next support at $47.40.

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News to trade on December 27

27.12.2018

According to the economic calendar, the most important event for today is the release of the CB consumer confidence at 17:00. Analysts anticipate the decline to 133.7 points. If the actual level of the indicator is higher, the USD will be supported.

If we look at the daily chart of EUR/USD, the pair has been trading sideways. If the CB consumer confidence outperforms the expectations, the bearish pressure will increase. In that case, the pair will fall to the support at 1.1283. Otherwise, the pair will have a possibility to break the resistance at 1.1385 and rise upwards to the next resistance at 1.1470.

As for USD/JPY, the pair has been targeting the support at 110.148. If the USD is supported by the today’s release, the pair will rise towards the resistance at 111.84. If the investors are disappointed by the data, the pair will fall to the support at 110.148.

During the Asian session, the release of industrial profits for China disappointed the investors. The indicator declined by 1.8% (vs. the previous +3.6%). AUD/USD has been falling on the news from China towards the support at 0.6971. If the risk on sentiment increases, the pair will rise to the resistance at 0.7087.

As for NZD/USD, the pair has been falling since the beginning of the day. The next support for the kiwi is placed at 0.6648. If the antipodean currency is supported, it will rise to the resistance at 0.6764.

The oil keeps plunging and therefore makes the CAD weaker. USD/CAD has been rising towards the resistance at 1.3678. If the USD moves down, the pair will be pulled down to the support at 1.3525.

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[SebsCubs]

Bitcoin Retrospective and a Glance into the Future!

2018 looks like a cross-section of the overall bitcoin behavior – unpredicted, volatile, giving big hopes and stealing them within a day. The currency started 2018 with a glorious entrance holding its price at the peak since the creation of cryptocurrencies!

Let’s get learn more about this!

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[SebsCubs]

Technical analysis

Technical analysis (TA) is a method of predicting the future performance of an asset’s price (in our case, the price of a currency pair) on the basis of its historical performance.

In other words, technical analysts study financial charts in order to determine what will happen with the price next.

In contrast to fundamental analysis which is regarding the “value” of the asset, technical analysis is only interested in price, volume and other market information. Some traders use either technical or fundamental analysis, while others combine these two methods to make trading decisions..

Let’s get to learn!
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[SebsCubs]

LESSON . Quotes: pips and big figures

On Forex market, the value of a currency is given in pips.
Pip is an acronym of “Percentage in Point”. It represents the smallest change an exchange rate can make.
Most currencies are quoted to four numbers after the point, so one pip equals to 1/100 of a percent (0.0001)
Let’s get learn!
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Top events this week will bring us

More at:

08.01.2019

5 important event to follow this week!

1. Canadian Trade Balance data (January 8, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)). Trade balance data is important for the Canadian economy and the CAD. That’s why the release may strongly affect the direction of the Canadian dollar.

2. BOC Rate Statement – (January 9, 17:00 MT time (15:00 GMT)). The Bank of Canada is one of the most unpredictable central banks in its decisions. But as usual, the hawkish mood of the BOC will boost the CAD. In the case of the cautious tone, the loonie will decline.

3. BOE Governor Carney Speaks (January 9, 17:30 MT time (15:0 GMT)). Comments by members of central banks are always highly important, especially when they are from heads of the CBs. The UK has been coming to the end of the Brexit saga or not? Encouraging speech of Mr. Carney will support the GBP while dovish mood will pull the GBP down.

4. FOMC Meeting Minutes (January 9, 21:00 MT time (19:00 GMT)). The Fed raised the interest rate in December 2018, however, it didn’t boost the market sentiment. Traders worry about the slowdown in the rate hikes’ pace. If the release is more positive than anticipated, the USD will rise.

5. US CPI figures (January 11, 15:30 MT time (13:30 GMT)). CPI is one of the crucial economic data that is followed by traders all around the world. CPI and Core CPI figures will affect the direction of the US dollar. Everything is simple: if the actual data outperform the forecasts, the USD will rise. Vice versa, the US dollar will depreciate.

Hot topics:

The Parliament vote for the final Brexit deal was postponed from January 11 to January 15. Further postpones? MAY BE.

Theresa May is going to chair a new cabinet committee (the EU exit and trade (preparedness) committee) that has been set up to take charge of the Brexit planning. Among other issues, it will cover planning for a no-deal Brexit.

 

[SebsCubs]

Trade on the comments by the BOC


09.01.2019

The Bank of Canada (BOC) will present its monetary policy report and make the rate statement on January 9 at 17:00 MT time.

The market expectations of the rate hike are low, however, the comments by the bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz may support the Canadian dollar. Last comments by the BOC governor Mr. Poloz were not very certain due to the fall in the oil prices and the trade war between the US and China. As the output cut by the OPEC+ has started since the beginning of the year, the central bank of Canada may sound more confident this time.

• If the BOC is hawkish, the CAD will rise;

• If the BOC is dovish, the CAD will fall.

 

[SebsCubs]

Japan’s wages calculation in GDP will be revised

11.01.2019

On Friday, Japan's cabinet told it’s on the verge of amending the calculation of employees’ compensation in the country’s GDP. Moreover, the Japanese government will most likely have its draft budget revised having understated wages data for over a decade because of faulty polling techniques.

The revisions aren’t anticipated to change the tempo of economic surge in Japan. Simultaneously, that’s an embarrassment for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe due to the fact that his cabinet has enacted a number of policies to avert the risk of deflation by simply stimulating wages to go up.

In fact, inaccurate wage data makes it difficult to evaluate whether Abe's policies are really working and could raise questions regarding the credibility of other data, thus leaving Japanese policy makers blind-sided in their attempts to speed up sustainable economic surge.

As some financial analysts pointed out, escaping deflation turns out to be Abe's number one economic objective, and if you’re unable to trust the data you are unable to make rational policy decisions. Last year the Japanese cabinet altered the sampling method for the purpose of improving wages data, and now they’re telling they had the data understated, which is incredible.

On Friday, the Cabinet Office that compiles GDP told that it’s going to uncover revisions for wages in 2016-2017 at the end of January. In February, the Cabinet Office is going to disclose revisions to wages data from 2015 and also earlier.

On Friday, the country’s Finance Minister Taro Aso told that the cabinet won’t probably have its budget draft revised for the next fiscal year to pay for a shortfall of employment insurance benefits provoked by mistakes in Japan’s wage data.

Such a rare move as this probable budget revision would follow the revelation that the labor ministry wrongly calculated employees’ average wages for years.

 

[SebsCubs]

Trade the British pound on the inflation data

15.01.2019

The level of British consumer price index (CPI) will be released on January 16 at 11:30 MT time.

This indicator accounts for a majority of overall inflation. The data is very important, as the bank of England uses it to measure the inflation level. Last month the index remained at the same level of 2.3%, as it was forecast by analysts. Higher-than-expected data will bring a positive momentum to the British currency.

• If CPI is higher than expected, the GBP will rise;

• IF CPI is lower, than expected, the GBP will fall.

 

[SebsCubs]

Evergreen buck steadies


22.01.2019

On Tuesday, the evergreen buck managed to stabilize in Asia because the International Monetary Fund had its 2019 as well as 2020 global surge forecasts cut overnight.

The IMF currently projects a 3.5% surge rate worldwide for this year and also 3.6% for next year. Eventually, these are 0.2% and also 0.1% below its previous estimates in October.

The fund cited a “no deal” Brexit, China-US trade clashes, a resumed tightening of financial conditions as well as a deeper-than-expected deceleration in China as the major reasons for the downgrade.

The news showed up several hours after on Monday China posted its slowest quarterly economic surge since the financial meltdown.

The Chinese economy managed to ascend by 6.4% in the fourth quarter of the previous year from 2017, as anticipated. The surge appeared to be slower than the previous quarter's outcome of 6.5%.

For last year the full-year surge accounted for 6.6%, which turns out to be in line with expectations.

On Tuesday, the USD index rallied by 0.1% being worth 96.058.

Market participants are also waiting for further news on the US-China trade clash, as Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is braced for visiting America on January 30 and 31 for another round of trade negotiations.

As a matter of fact, the Japanese yen headed north. The currency pair USD/JPY went down by 0.2% being worth 109.43.

The Chinese Yuan rallied by 0.2% showing 6.8022 because China’s major financial institution had the Yuan reference rate set at 6.7854 in contrast with yesterday’s outcome of 6.7774.

As experts at Morgan Stanley told, they’d turned bullish on China’s currency due to the fact they were assured that China’s major bank would stay away from intervening during trade negotiations.

The currency pairs AUD/USD and NZD/USD went down by respectively 0.3% and 0.1%.