deserteagle
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wiseambitions
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Perhaps we should take a study into the 'Force' indicator. I believe this is a combination of momentum AND volume
Anyway FMT is working fine ATM!
In my calculations, which are subject to human error, and subject to differences between brokers:
Results since 1/1/2011
FMT 35/40/BE +215 (165 without BE resetting)
Old FMT 40/40 +240 (or +280 WITH BE resetting@20)
Tenapenny
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Not today, +43
Had to wait a little longer but we got there.
wiseambitions
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Not today, +43
Yes, I noticed you were lucky. And the spike upon 09.30 news was dramatic i.e + about 60pips in 2 seconds!
My latest careful analysis of the last 100 trades (E&OE) gives the following gains:
1) at 40/40 - the original FMT settings, + 800
2) at 35/40+BE - the current FMT recommendation + 755
3) 43/65/BE - DesertEagle + 917
My 'problem' with the DesertEagle setting is that although the gain is better, you need to reduce your lot size by nearly 40% to get to the same % risk per trade for a given amount of capital.
EG $10,000, trading at 2% risk. @ 40pips SL. You can run 5.0 Lots And make 5*755 i.e $3775 if the past performance is repeated
At 65SL, to keep to 2% risk you could run 3.1 lots, and make 3.1*917 i.e. $2842 if the past is repeated.
Fair enough you could carry on running 5.0 lots but your maximum risk would then be 3.25% per trade. And you would make $4585 which is better than $3775.
But why not run 3.25% risk on FMT settings, open 8.1 lots, and make 755 pips on them, giving you $6115 which is better than $4585.....
And so we go on..... all the way to the craziest possible risk per trade when all of your money is tied up in the margin and the same problem would continue to apply, and would still give advantage to the 40SL strategy.
I like your results from your setting but I can't help but think this is its main disadvantage.
catfish911
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Buy on Alpari UK at 6:30, out at +37, marvellous, that was a quick win, wish they were all like that... Took til 18:00 yesterday to hit TP on a sell. Patience needed some days... ;-)
FMT for me today :
6:00 start, buy trade, hit TP +30 pips
6:15 start, buy trade, hit TP +30 pips
6:30 start, buy trade, hit TP +32 pips
6:45 start, buy trade, hit BE
total today +92 pips ..
total for the week so far +183 pips.
Hey Hammy
Your note intrigues me - So you started your FMTs at 6am, opened 3 positions with a 30 pip target? Is that right?
Thanks Ezmai
Thank you and you.
deserteagle
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Yes, that's true, it is a point to be improved. Working on it.
Jashfx
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Bear in mind that these results will differ from broker to broker. I was saved twice this month ( I think) compared to PFG which is broker Marc Frick uses. Once was a No Trade that ended up being a loser and another time was a signal to enter that ended up being a winner.
However, there have been months where I have also been on the wrong end of the close calls but yeah Feb has been a great month All around I think for everybody.
This is one of the best and sensible posts that I have seen in a long time. What really matters is return compared to risk, not just the pips won.
You are wise indeed. Excellent reasoning :clap:
I don'tnow what it does for the MM. After installing 4.3 I made 45 pips on one account and +35pips on my second account last night. I opted to use MM because it's modest. So far since 02-17-11 I've had 3 wins 1 loss.:clap:
Jashfx
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Have A Question for those that use the EA?? Has anyone come accross a situation where its given a No signal because of 'The Long Candle Filter'? I believe this was the last modification.
I trade manually so would actually never encounter this. Im also wondering what these settings are that determine the long candle (other than having to eyeball or guess).
To those that trade manually like myself, Wise and a couple others, am I not correct in Saying that we were sold a manual system? The Ea that came with the system is suppose to place your trade, and manage your trade according to 2 Criteria. So if we trade manually, we now have to guess whether we think the Long Candle is a Long Candle or not? Surely we should be given an idicator that serves the same purpose or be told that if a candle is X amount of pips in length or longer than.....
I only bring this up cause months ago it was argued that we were sold a MANUEL System and not an EA (ie: when the TMT EA came out).
If this Long Candle Filter is part of TMT and not the normal FMT EA then I have it wrong and apologise but if its part of the normal FMT EA then I feel we should be told 'as manuel Traders', considering we bought a manuel system how to identify this without the USE of the EA?
I trade manually so would actually never encounter this. Im also wondering what these settings are that determine the long candle (other than having to eyeball or guess).
To those that trade manually like myself, Wise and a couple others, am I not correct in Saying that we were sold a manual system? The Ea that came with the system is suppose to place your trade, and manage your trade according to 2 Criteria. So if we trade manually, we now have to guess whether we think the Long Candle is a Long Candle or not? Surely we should be given an idicator that serves the same purpose or be told that if a candle is X amount of pips in length or longer than.....
I only bring this up cause months ago it was argued that we were sold a MANUEL System and not an EA (ie: when the TMT EA came out).
If this Long Candle Filter is part of TMT and not the normal FMT EA then I have it wrong and apologise but if its part of the normal FMT EA then I feel we should be told 'as manuel Traders', considering we bought a manuel system how to identify this without the USE of the EA?
wiseambitions
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Thanks, now here is the output of various situations with M/M
But please note I have calculated this all manually, not via the EA strategy tester, because I was using my own observed prices for the last 6 months, and some differences are bound to arise.
If you rolled up capital accepting 2% risk per trade at various settings this is where you get to in 100 trades
a) Original FMT settings 40/40 800 pips +41.6%
b) Present FMT settings 35/40/BE 755 pips +44.0%
c) Eagle's settings 43/65/BE 917 pips + 32.2%
d) conservative settings 10/40 750 pips + 45.2%
You will notice there's not a direct relationship between pips and capital growth. 10/40 gave the fewest pips but the highest compounded growth due to less drawdown. (However 40 pips SL takes 4 days to recover when suffered). Desert Eagle's results are affected by the reduction in lot size in order to keep to 2% risk per trade, else they would have been better. Present FMT recommending settings gave fewer pips than the original, but slightly better capital growth due - I presume - to less drawdown.
40% in 6 months, including the Christmas period is excellent growth, I can't think of any managed funds from investment companies which come close, indeed those which achieve this in 3 or 5 years receive a lot of publicity!!!!
Future returns cannot of course be guaranteed, but I continue to feel comfortable with FMT.
chrisheath
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[QUOTELong Candle Filter [/QUOTE]
I believe that this is only in TMT.
My backtests show that this filter does not have much effect on results. (Others please say if you think thats wrong).(Actually, it can improve shorts slightly, but not longs, in my research.)
More important, IMHO, is the ADR filter, which is based on the previous day (or days) ATR range. This is only applied to long trades, and does improve results, but not massively. (By preventing some losses). According to the given info, it is NOT a simple ATR calculation. However. by observation you might be able to draw your own conclusions, if the previous day has a 'large' range.
My own studies show that if the previous day is large, the market needs to 'take a rest', and the Asian market may well be quieter than normal, coming into the London session, and that this will make any signal based system less reliable. ( If you eyeball the last bars in the Asian sessions, coming into the London open, over the Xmas period, (mid Dec-mid Jan) you will see reduced activity (bar size) compared to normal, and anyone on this forum will tell you about the drop off in performance of FMT during that period.)
I believe that Mark is working on improvements for the manual system, but he is thorough, and genuine, and won't release anything , till he's satisfied about its worth.
If you look at (eg) WiseAmbitions results, FMT is already a contender (was that Marlon Brando?) for the title. Ultimately, tiny tweaks may be the financial equivalent of re-arranging the deck-chairs on the Titanic. (if the market conditions change - look at 2007 results).
If you feel the need, you do have the choice of purchasing the Turbo variety.
Warm Regards, Chris
I believe that this is only in TMT.
My backtests show that this filter does not have much effect on results. (Others please say if you think thats wrong).(Actually, it can improve shorts slightly, but not longs, in my research.)
More important, IMHO, is the ADR filter, which is based on the previous day (or days) ATR range. This is only applied to long trades, and does improve results, but not massively. (By preventing some losses). According to the given info, it is NOT a simple ATR calculation. However. by observation you might be able to draw your own conclusions, if the previous day has a 'large' range.
My own studies show that if the previous day is large, the market needs to 'take a rest', and the Asian market may well be quieter than normal, coming into the London session, and that this will make any signal based system less reliable. ( If you eyeball the last bars in the Asian sessions, coming into the London open, over the Xmas period, (mid Dec-mid Jan) you will see reduced activity (bar size) compared to normal, and anyone on this forum will tell you about the drop off in performance of FMT during that period.)
I believe that Mark is working on improvements for the manual system, but he is thorough, and genuine, and won't release anything , till he's satisfied about its worth.
If you look at (eg) WiseAmbitions results, FMT is already a contender (was that Marlon Brando?) for the title. Ultimately, tiny tweaks may be the financial equivalent of re-arranging the deck-chairs on the Titanic. (if the market conditions change - look at 2007 results).
If you feel the need, you do have the choice of purchasing the Turbo variety.
Warm Regards, Chris
chrisheath
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Wise, that's great work! Money management in operation. I sort of feel the heat, when you have real wonga on the line. I pull out 50% at a 'measly' 10 pips, but do this consistently (sure, occasionally it loses!!). I personally, (as an immature trader) wouldn't like the 'heat' generated at minus 63 pips(albeit rarely). But we're all different - and that's what makes it interesting.
Regards, Chris.
This is one of the best and sensible posts that I have seen in a long time. What really matters is return compared to risk, not just the pips won.
You are wise indeed. Excellent reasoning
I agree also, we have to remember the long term objective here which is to make consistent profits with a manageable risk
