ForexMorningTrade System

[wiseambitions]

wow that was a long wait. Hit my TP. And those others who didnt get knocked out at BE will have done too!

Seems like we may be getting back to normal

 

[Jashfx]

+35 pips -- Alpari

 

[Jashfx]

wow that was a long wait. Hit my TP. And those others who didnt get knocked out at BE will have done too!

Seems like we may be getting back to normal

Lets hope so. Four losses in row for me and those that traded end part of December -- probably more.

 

[RedGuerrilla]

'Live' Accounts:

01-11-2011, FMT 4.2, No Trade, FXSolutions, dealing desk, 0.0
My stats since 11-08-2010: 10 No Trades, 11 Break Evens, 15 Losses, 11 Profits, Total: -232 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

01-11-2011, FMT 4.2, No Trade, IBFX, non-dealing desk, 0.0
My stats since 01-04-2010: 2 No Trades, 1 Break Evens, 2 Loss, 0 Profits, Total: -83.8 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

01-11-2011, FMT 4.2, No Trade at non-dealing desk brokers:
PFG Best, 0.0
FOREX.com, 0.0
MB Trading, 0.0
FXCM, 0.0
Alpari(US), 0.0
FXDD, 0.0



Modified hammy66's system:
01-11-2010, FMT 4.2 EA, set 5 separate GU M15 Charts each separated by 30 minutes using a different magic number.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: TP=30, SL=44, BE=20, BE+5 pips

6:00 start, no trade, 0 pips.
6:30 start, no trade, 0 pips.
7:00 start, buy trade, -43.5 pips.
7:30 start, no trade, 0 pips.
8:00 start, sell trade, hit TP= 30 pips.

for today -13.5 pips ...


My stats since 01-11-2010: Total: -13.5 pips

 

[RedGuerrilla]

'Live' Accounts:

01-12-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Break Even, FXSolutions, dealing desk, 1.5645, 1.5645, 0.0
My stats since 11-08-2010: 10 No Trades, 12 Break Evens, 15 Losses, 11 Profits, Total: -232 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

01-12-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Break Even, IBFX, non-dealing desk, 1.56446, 1.56444, -0.2
My stats since 01-04-2010: 2 No Trades, 3 Break Evens, 2 Loss, 0 Profits, Total: -84.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

01-12-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Break Even/Profit at non-dealing desk brokers:
PFG Best, 1.56442, 1.56442, 0.0
FOREX.com, 1.56447, 1.56446, -0.1
MB Trading, 1.56444, 1.56788, +34.4
FXCM, 1.56448, 1.56448, 0.0
Alpari(US), 1.56430, 1.56780, +35.0
FXDD, 1.56444, 1.564444, 0.0



Modified hammy66's system:
01-12-2010, FMt 4.2 EA, set 5 separate GU M15 Charts each separated by 30 minutes using a different magic number.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: TP=30, SL=44, BE=20, BE+5 pips

6:00 start, buy trade, BE+5 pips.
6:30 start, buy trade, hit TP= +31.1 pips.
7:00 start, buy trade, BE+5 pips.
7:30 start, buy trade, BE+5 pips.
8:00 start, buy trade, hit TP= +30.5 pips.

for today +76.6 pips ...

My stats since 01-11-2010: Total: +63.1 pips

 

[wiseambitions]

When comparing statistics we need to be a bit careful adding up the pips when trades are split, eg at different opening times or different exits.

Mark Fric quite rightly quotes in his daily journal page for his TMT demo accounts that you have to divide the number of pips on 2 strategies by two in order to get the real results.

Likewise if we were analysing say 4 starting times, or 4 exits, where lot sizes were equally split up we'd have to add up the pips for each part and divide by 4 to give the true average pips for that day's trading.

Ultimately the outcome we're all interested in is the return on capital at the end of a period (week, month, quarter, year) at given risk levels eg 2%, 5% ad infinitum (or ad libitum)

 

[Icepop]

+25 With Alpari UK
Hopefully as Wiseambitions has said earlier, "Seems like we may be getting back to normal "
I am sticking with a 25TP & 40 SL with no BE. Hopefully the lower take profit should give me a higher percentage of winning trades.
Thanks to all of you who post on this blog, it really helps, so thought it would be worth mentioning my strategy.

 

[hammy66]

FMT for me today:

6:00 start, buy trade, BE+5 pips
6:15 start, buy trade, BE+5 pips
6:30 start, buy trade, BE+5 pips
6:45 start, buy trade, hit TP=30 pips

profit of +45 pips today....

 

[hammy66]

'Live' Accounts:

01-12-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Break Even, FXSolutions, dealing desk, 1.5645, 1.5645, 0.0
My stats since 11-08-2010: 10 No Trades, 12 Break Evens, 15 Losses, 11 Profits, Total: -232 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

01-12-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Break Even, IBFX, non-dealing desk, 1.56446, 1.56444, -0.2
My stats since 01-04-2010: 2 No Trades, 2 Break Evens, 2 Loss, 0 Profits, Total: -84.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

01-12-2011, FMT 4.2, Long/Break Even/Profit at non-dealing desk brokers:
PFG Best, 1.56442, 1.56442, 0.0
FOREX.com, 1.56447, 1.56446, -0.1
MB Trading, 1.56444, 1.56788, +34.4
FXCM, 1.56448, 1.56448, 0.0
Alpari(US), 1.56430, 1.56780, +35.0
FXDD, 1.56444, 1.564444, 0.0



ReviSed hammy66's system:
01-12-2010, FMt 4.2 EA, set 5 separate GU M15 Charts each separated by 30 minutes using a different magic number.
Settings: TP=30, SL=44, BE=20, BE+5 pips

6:00 start, buy trade, BE+5 pips.
6:30 start, buy trade, hit TP= +31.1 pips.
7:00 start, buy trade, BE+5 pips.
7:30 start, buy trade, BE+5 pips.
8:00 start, buy trade, hit TP= +30.5 pips.

for today +61.6 pips ...

My stats since 01-11-2010: Total: +48.1 pips

hey you forgot to add the 3 BE+5 pips ! , that's another 15 pips...

your profit today should be +76.6 pips...

well done !..

 

[tkbieber]

+25 With Alpari UK
Hopefully as Wiseambitions has said earlier, "Seems like we may be getting back to normal "
I am sticking with a 25TP & 40 SL with no BE. Hopefully the lower take profit should give me a higher percentage of winning trades.
Thanks to all of you who post on this blog, it really helps, so thought it would be worth mentioning my strategy.

I definitely understand your strategy. However, the downside, of course, is when the market is in full swing, you will be cutting yourself short by 15 pips. I'm not quite sure, if you were to do a back test, that you would be getting more pips in 12 months by expecting more wins. I've found (at least in my back-testing) that around 35 pip tp gets you more pips in the end. So yes, you may get more wins, but after 12 months, will you get more pips? I know it's hard to take in the entire picture because when we focus solely on the narrow, day-to-day trades, things can look different this week as apposed to next week, etc. If I was to look at the end of Nov and most of Dec, I would say this EA sucks. But because I got in last Aug, I know what this thing can do and I love it.

 

[wiseambitions]

I know what this thing can do and I love it.

"I know what this thing can do and I love it" Must be quote of the week!

My thinking behind a lower TP (without the BE reset) is that it only needs one less loss per month to compensate for the lower potential gain. We have already had 2 days in January where 35 wasn't quite reached so it's ahead already.

Bad luck for Mark today where I notice he missed 35TP by "1 or 2" and fell back to BE. But that must have been a freak due to the broker missing it because for a few brief moments there might just have been enough pips on the table for him, but if you blinked you missed it.

 

[Lady Forex]

+25 With Alpari UK
Hopefully as Wiseambitions has said earlier, "Seems like we may be getting back to normal "
I am sticking with a 25TP & 40 SL with no BE. Hopefully the lower take profit shoBuld give me a higher percentage of winning trades.
Thanks to all of you who post on this blog, it really helps, so thought it would be worth mentioning my strategy.

But do you think it will be enough to offset the risk to reward ratio?

 

[Icepop]

Hi Tkbieber & Lady Forex

"I've found (at least in my back-testing) that around 35 pip tp gets you more pips in the end"

A very kind member of the forum has done loads of back tests and has sent me some analysis.

Back testing of the last 100 trades told me the worst losses occurred with maximum gains of
0,3,6,7,12,12,12,12,13,14,14,15 before turning to SL. In other words if you accepted a TP of 15 you'd be right about 90PC of the time, but I found the optimum was anywhere between 25 TP and 33 TP

Perhaps 25 is a bit low and I like your way of thinking... perhaps 30 would be more beneficial?

Hopefully FMT is back on track and whatever our individual TP, SL & BE's are, we are in a win, win situation!

 

[RedGuerrilla]

hey you forgot to add the 3 BE+5 pips ! , that's another 15 pips...

your profit today should be +76.6 pips...

well done !..

Thanks hammy66, I was half asleep when I did it. I corrected it. I’m not use to making pips at BE.
I think your idea is working because it's a bigger net to catch more fish.
I just made the net bigger.

I keep the lots for all 5 trades at 0.10 each with MM turned off.
I started my Demo at $5000. Risk is at 44 pips per trade.
So I’m risking less than 1% per trade.
The total risk, worst case scenario (5 x 44 = 220 pips), is 4.4%
The two extremes of loss and profit do happen, but are at a lower probability of happening.
When the market is going sideways, you get more no trades and BE+5 pips.
Because of the 30 pips TP vs. 44 pips SL, the odds are greater for profits, during these sideways movements.
When the market is trending, the odds are higher for more profits.

Two points that further reduce risk:
1. Mark's candlestick filter.
2. The system hedges itself. If you notice, the trade for 01-11-2010, the market was sideways.
Out of 5 trades, 3 were no trades, 1 was long, and 1 was short.
The long lost, the short won giving a smaller loss.
The trade must end by the end of the day, which it usually does.
Or the trade will get cancel automatically by the end of the day.
But just for US Forex traders, since no hedging is allowed.

 

[tkbieber]

Hi Tkbieber & Lady Forex

"I've found (at least in my back-testing) that around 35 pip tp gets you more pips in the end"

A very kind member of the forum has done loads of back tests and has sent me some analysis.

Back testing of the last 100 trades told me the worst losses occurred with maximum gains of
0,3,6,7,12,12,12,12,13,14,14,15 before turning to SL. In other words if you accepted a TP of 15 you'd be right about 90PC of the time, but I found the optimum was anywhere between 25 TP and 33 TP

Perhaps 25 is a bit low and I like your way of thinking... perhaps 30 would be more beneficial?

Hopefully FMT is back on track and whatever our individual TP, SL & BE's are, we are in a win, win situation!

Thank you for the incite. In the testing I've done, I've found this to be true as well. I first began TP's of around 27 pips and got braver every week to now 35 tp. I think I'll stay with 35 tp (and 24 BE as Mark suggests).

 

[wiseambitions]

13th January. Today is going to be a close call with some members probably having had signals to go long at 05.30 through to 06.15, but one of the indicators has been in straight line decline for the entire Asian session. The other has been extremely high, and until recently above the FMT limit and is still resiliant. Also there has been no direction to the price in that same time frame since it shot up at the end of Wednesday and flattened out. I guess at 06.30 the templates and EAs won't pick a trade because of the declining indicator going under its base line and I won't override that 'verdict' either. 40sMA has been in steady decline and to me indicates a downwards bias. Seems most likely I will stay away

 

[Baldeaglebloke]

13th January. Today is going to be a close call with some members probably having had signals to go long at 05.30 through to 06.15, but one of the indicators has been in straight line decline for the entire Asian session. The other has been extremely high, and until recently above the FMT limit and is still resiliant. Also there has been no direction to the price in that same time frame since it shot up at the end of Wednesday and flattened out. I guess at 06.30 the templates and EAs won't pick a trade because of the declining indicator going under its base line and I won't override that 'verdict' either. 40sMA has been in steady decline and to me indicates a downwards bias. Seems most likely I will stay away

flat as a pancake with no price action - looks like a return to bed

 

[Flourish]

No trade on FXPRO for GU and EU.

 

[RedGuerrilla]

'Live' Accounts:

01-13-2011, FMT 4.2, No Trade, FXSolutions, dealing desk, 0.0
My stats since 11-08-2010: 11 No Trades, 12 Break Evens, 15 Losses, 11 Profits, Total: -232 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP

01-13-2011, FMT 4.2, No Trade, IBFX, non-dealing desk, 0.0
My stats since 01-04-2010: 3 No Trades, 2 Break Evens, 2 Loss, 0 Profits, Total: -84.0 pips
Pips include slippage, using EA standard settings: 40 SL, 20 BE, 35 TP



Demo Accounts:

01-13-2011, FMT 4.2, No Trade at non-dealing desk brokers:
PFG Best, 0.0
FOREX.com, 0.0
MB Trading, 0.0
FXCM, 0.0
Alpari(US), 0.0
FXDD, 0.0



Modified hammy66's system:
01-13-2010, FMt 4.2 EA, set 5 separate GU M15 Charts each separated by 30 minutes using a different magic number.
Using PFG Best Demo Account, Settings: TP=30, SL=44, BE=20, BE+5 pips

6:00 start, buy trade, hit TP= +30.4 pips.
6:30 start, no trade, 0.0 pips.
7:00 start, no trade, 0.0 pips.
7:30 start, no trade, 0.0 pips.
8:00 start, no trade, 0.0 pips.

for today +30.4 pips ...

My stats since 01-11-2010: Total: +93.5 pips

 

[Adamus]

I'm in long, although I'm not using metatrader, I rewrote the EA into a strategy for NinjaTrader. Went long at 6:00am at 1.5747 and it's now ranging within the 40 pips either side of that, without touching my target or stop of course. I'm not going to watch it anymore, I'll just keep the executions list open.